AS RUSSIA’S INVASION enters its third week, Putin’s principal strategic objectives have not been met. Senior military commanders use the mnemonic METT – TC to plan and evaluate major ground operations. The acronym consists of key terms, Mission, Enemy, Troops Available, Time Available and Civilian Considerations.
Under the term mission, Putin’s forces have failed to take the capital city Kyiv. After 14 days, his massed column of armoured units has not yet engaged the Ukrainian defence of the city. Since D-Day, 24 February, these forces have moved less than 200km from the Novaya Guta border crossing in Belarus.
This represents an average rate of advance of approximately 15km per day. This is almost literally a snail’s pace. The average – unfit – person can walk four miles in an hour. Putin’s mechanised forces have moved at a fraction of that pace – on good roads. The mission to race to Kyiv has thus far failed.
Crude but deadly battle plan
The mission to take other cities in the east and south of the country have floundered. The cities of Sumy, Kharkiv and Mariupol have been surrounded and besieged by Russian forces. As I write, these units are now bombarding these cities with artillery, air-strikes and missile attacks. The Russians have not provided timely or safe evacuation routes from these densely populated urban areas and there will be mass casualties in coming days.
In terms of ‘Enemy’, the Ukrainian leadership remains firmly in place. Volodymyr Zelenskyy has rallied his cabinet and his military commanders and their resistance remains firm and coherent in the face of the Russian onslaught. This level of resistance was not anticipated by Russian military commanders. The Director of the US Defence Intelligence Agency, Lieutenant General Scott Berrier estimates that between 2000 and 4000 Russian soldiers have been killed in combat.
This conservative estimate would represent a shocking attrition rate for the Russian military in just two weeks of combat. To put those numbers in context, the Soviets lost approximately 15,000 troops in Afghanistan in nine years of combat. The US and NATO allies lost 3,500 troops over 19 years. The extraordinarily high death rate for Russian soldiers in Ukraine – if true – represents unsustainable losses.
This may explain Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s claim today that the conflict in Ukraine was reaching a ‘strategic turning point’. Whatever the military outcomes, the next phase of the invasion – involving an intensification of artillery barrages accompanied by armoured incursions into densely populated civilian areas – will inflict mass killings among the civilian population.
Intolerable next phase
In terms of ‘Troops Available’, Putin’s forces have now been in the field for an extended period. Their concentration began in January and they have been engaged in high stress operations for over two weeks. Their rate of advance has been disastrously slow – allowing the Ukrainian military ample time to strengthen their city defences – with floundering logistics and a high casualty rate.
The Russians at this point will seek to reorganise, reinforce and re-double their efforts to overwhelm the stubborn Ukrainian resistance. This will involve an escalation of operations, with ever more indiscriminate use of force and brutality in tactics.
Under ‘Time Available’, the Russian invasion has clearly floundered. The military and political window of opportunity to claim a swift and decisive victory has now passed. Putin and his inner circle will be frantically attempting to ratchet up the pressure on Zelenskyy – and the civilian population of Ukraine – in order to save face.
In the macabre calculus of the Kremlin, some fear this may involve using ever more lethal weapon systems in the urban environment – including thermobaric weapons and even suggestions of a chemical attack to terrorise city mayors into surrender.
With much of the civilian population sheltering in underground basements and bomb shelters, the illegal use of such weapon systems – along with the unlawful use of White Phosphorous munitions – would result in the ‘wanton and wilful’ killing of civilians as described in the Geneva Conventions.
It might also prompt civilian mayors – in extremis – to surrender their cities. Therefore, under the last term, ‘Civilian Considerations’, it is clear to me, based on the conduct of this war to date, that the civilian population are a de-facto target. Rather than honouring their obligations to preserve civilian life as set out in the Geneva Conventions and Laws of Armed Conflict, the Kremlin are targeting innocent civilians in order to achieve a ‘victory’ that conventional military operations have failed to deliver.
In this scenario, there are severe and unique risks for escalation in the Ukraine conflict. In supporting the Ukrainian resistance with the supply of money and weapons, EU member states – many of whom are NATO members – are walking a very fine line between material support for the Ukrainian military and an outright declaration of war on Russia.
European cities at risk
Today, Russia targeted this supply line by carrying out airstrikes on the cities of Lutsk and Ivano Frankivska in western Ukraine. It is only a matter of time before the Russians target Lviv in order to frustrate the reception and distribution of European weapons to the Ukrainian resistance.
As Russia controls Ukrainian airspace, such weapons and materials are entering Ukraine over land borders from neighbouring (NATO) member states such as Poland. In time, the Russian military may target such border crossings with air and missile strikes in order to halt these re-supply routes to the Ukrainian military. If they do so and if they hit Polish border forces or military units – they will have engaged NATO directly, triggering a Europe-wide war.
It is precisely for this reason – in the forlorn hope of avoiding a declaration of war on Russia – that NATO and the EU have thus far refused to put in place a No Fly Zone over Ukraine. To do so would involve an initial first-step of destroying Russia’s integrated air defence systems in the region, with NATO fighter aircraft and missiles striking targets throughout Belarus and the border region of Russia itself. This would represent a declaration of war on Russia by NATO and the beginning – perhaps – of a global conflict.
Russia’s capacity to mount an effective ground campaign has been shown to be highly questionable. In Syria, the ground component of Russia’s war consisted mainly of Syrian troops from President Assad’s Syrian Arab National Army. Interestingly, Putin has suggested that up to 16,000 such troops have volunteered to fight in Ukraine. If this war does not come to a halt, in a multitude of scenarios, I believe it is inevitable that NATO will eventually become involved in the conflict. In this scenario, with no credible ground component, Russia will respond to a NATO intervention in the only manner open to them – the use of conventional ballistic cruise missiles (with a range of 3000km) against European cities.
This would invite a missile response from NATO with the apocalyptic scenario – raised by Putin himself – of a thermonuclear response. The use of a tactical nuclear weapon in Europe – however small – would change Europe forever. NATO must avoid – at all costs – declaring war on Russia. If Russia attacks NATO, we will enter a crisis with the potential for mutually assured destruction.
Ireland’s neutrality
Ireland should use its neutral status and membership of the UN Security Council to open channels of communication between the Kremlin and Washington to bring this conflict to a close.
This can be done behind the scenes. Ireland has had previous success as a peace-broker at this level in the context of the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks process – strongly supported by Ireland – which led to a reduction in nuclear warheads. Now is the time for de-escalation and superhuman efforts at reaching a cease-fire and end to hostilities.
Now is not the time for Ireland to join a military alliance or to renounce our neutral status. In this nightmare scenario, today Putin stated that there were ‘certain positive shifts’ emerging in negotiations between Russia and Ukraine – with the possibility of direct talks between Zelenskyy and Putin.
Anything that brings us back from the brink of global conflict is to be welcomed. Ireland can show moral leadership and moral courage in the coming days by doing all in its power to capitalize on any potential ‘positive shift’ to promote de-escalation, peace and our collective survival.
Dr Tom Clonan is a former Captain in the Irish armed forces. He is a security analyst and academic, lecturing in the School of Media in DIT. You can follow him on Twitter.
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