PREDICTING THE OUTCOME of Ireland’s latest spate of local and European elections was always going to be a tricky business. Nobody knows that better than Ciarán Cuffe.

Before he was eliminated, the outgoing Green Party MEP told RTÉ: “A thousand years ago we’d slaughter an animal and look at the entrails” for guidance in such matters. Having fallen just shy of success in his bid for reelection, one wonders how many times Cuffe may have said the word “entrails” on the doorstep while campaigning, and whether it may have hurt his chances with Irish voters a little more accustomed to more bland, “senior hurling”-type imagery.

Talking about slaughtering animals for portents on RTÉ for no discernible reason was certainly a valiant attempt to seize the crown for the most viscerally disturbing image presented during this marathon week of voting, counting, crying, pushing, shoving, and, of course, hoisting. Cuffe was, however, gazumped in dramatic fashion by Independent anti-immigration candidate Tom McDonnell, the final councillor of the 949 to be elected – winning a seat in Newbridge on Thursday after multiple recounts Sinn Féin’s 18-year-old candidate James Stokes and Aontú’s Melissa Byrne.

Following McDonnell’s election, the spotlight fell onto comments he has made about birth rates in Ireland. Kildare Now reported that McDonnell had said Irish women are “only breeding 1.6 to 1.9 children” and added “if we don’t have more women breeding we will die out as a race.” I’m just the messenger and even I’m sorry you had to read that.

Other remarks reported by local radio station KFM include: “It’s all about the women of Ireland. If we don’t have women breeding, we die out as a breed and we don’t want that to happen.” When defending the comments, McDonnell said that he was from a farming background, a qualification that quite self-evidently makes the already bizarre comments even more dehumanising. What are we doing here, man?

McDonnell edged his way onto Kildare County Council with 1419 votes after all transfers were counted, but on a national level this chap will do well to breed anything other than the bitterest resentment among anyone who shares the crazy belief that women should have some say in when or whether they have children (and as of 25 May 2018, there were quite a few of them). McDonnell has stated his intention to run in the general election, so that’s something for us all to look forward to. 

Some candidates and party members across the ideological spectrum had normal things to say, of course, but no such statements will feature in this column. But how about the most trite soundbite imaginable?

“Events, dear boy, events,” said former Labour Party leader Pat Rabbitte when offering his analysis to RTÉ and reaffirming once again that everybody involved in Irish politics knows precisely one quote. You have much to answer for, Harold Macmillan. 

However, in the case of these local elections, it seemed that there were moments when narratives began to overtake the events themselves.

One of the most widely-accepted takeaways from this campaign is that Sinn Féin had a bit of a nightmare. As a summary, it leaves a little to be desired in terms of detail. Sinn Féin actually increased their share of local council seats by 26%. By the same token, neither Fine Gael nor Fianna Fáil have ever received as few first preference votes as they did this time around.

You will have heard that this election was Very Bad for the party who increased their vote share, but Very Good for two parties whose popularity has declined compared to 2019. While that may seem counterintuitive, there is a certain logic to it.

The election marked a stalling of the momentum that Sinn Féin have mostly maintained since they became the joint-largest part in Dáil Éireann in February 2020. It was a disappointing result acknowledged by several of the party’s big names, not least leader Mary Lou McDonald, who posted a video to her Twitter/X account in which she conceded that Sinn Féin “hadn’t had the day that [we] had hoped for”. Sinn Féin failed to meet its own expectations, and in some cases only had themselves to blame, running too many candidates in certain LEAs and splitting their first preference vote into too many pieces. 

In the fullness of time, though, Mary Lou’s video may prove to be unduly supplicating. Since it went live on Sunday, it’s been confirmed that Sinn Féin have gained 21 seats, while Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael lost a combined 41 seats. The party has become more defiant as result, and Lynn Boylan defended the party’s gains in an RTÉ interview with a verve that was lacking from the party’s representatives earlier in the week. Sinn Féin ultimately doubled their representation in Brussels as Kathleen Funchion was confirmed as an MEP for the South constituency early on Friday morning. 

Fine Gael, meanwhile, feel that they have stymied what has been an extended downturn in their fortunes, prompting party TD Michael Ring to say: “Fine Gael are back. Not on the way back. We never went away, but we’re back.” Trust me, you’re not getting a single quote that makes sense this week. Paschal Donohoe went so hard celebrating the election of his parliamentary assistant Ray MacAdam that he didn’t even seem to notice himself getting a whack in the face, though of course, as a Tottenham Hotspur fan, a feeling of unbridled triumph is presumably a rarity for the Minister.

Fianna Fáil were similarly buoyant, and despite losing seats they maintained their status as the largest political party at the local level. “The centre wants to hold,” said Fianna Fáil MEP Billy Kelleher at the outset of the local count, which will be welcome news to WB Yeats. The falcon can actually hear the falconer just fine, Willy. Please pay no attention to the rough beast slouching towards Bethlehem.

Another talking point which has dominated the count coverage is the weird unpredictability that emerged around transfers. Seasoned politicos, counters and tallyfolk will tell you that there once was a time when you knew which way transfers would fall. Traditional wisdom was obliterated this time around with some transfers veering into the downright incoherent.

The exclusion of a National Party candidate in Dublin yielded 102 transfers for lifelong leftist and People Before Profit TD Bríd Smith. In Midlands-North-West, there were 58 people who gave their first preference vote for hardcore nationalist James Reynolds while giving conversationist and left-wing independent Saoirse McHugh their second. Mick Wallace, who votes as part of the European United Left bloc in the European Parliament, received over 4,000 transfers from far-right agitator Derek Blighe who has protested outside accommodation earmarked for international protection applicants. Perhaps some people were simply voting for any non-government candidate, but some certainly were not, as Billy Kelleher received 1,783 transfers from Blighe, who has said that the Irish government is “perverted” and “at war with its citizens”.

Political science students will be attempting to make sense of this election in their theses for years to come. In the meantime, many will be left scratching their heads. Maybe checking some entrails isn’t such a bad idea after all.