IN THE RUN up to last September’s referendum on whether Scotland should break its 307-year-old union with England, few commentators discussed the implications of a positive vote for independence on the outcome of the 2015 UK general election.
Had Scotland chosen independence on the 18 September, then the Labour Party would have lost all of its 40 Scottish seats before any votes had been cast in next year’s election. The Conservative Party on the other hand have only one Scottish MP and since it holds the majority of seats in England, and would likely do so after 2015, David Cameron or his successor would have been able to form a single party government.
With the Conservatives returned to power, one of the first priorities of the new administration would be to hold a referendum on its continued membership of the EU. However the decision by the Scottish voters to reject independence has increased the chances of Ed Miliband becoming Prime Minister and thus reducing the likelihood of a referendum been held for now.
Further challenges
If Miliband does make it to Number 10, then he’ll be most likely facing a newly elected leader of the Conservative Party in the form of Boris Johnson. Johnson who is favoured by many to take over the leadership of the Party, is an out and out Eurosceptic. He’s also the most popular politician in Britain and if he is able harness this support when leader of the Conservatives, he will force Miliband into holding a referendum.
In such a scenario, a hapless Miliband would be left either campaigning for Britain to stay in the EU, which would divide the Labour Party, or joining Johnson and Nigel Farage in calling for the rejection of British membership of the Union. In this case voters could use a referendum as an opportunity to reject Farage and his UKIP party by voting for continued membership, however the support of the liberal minded and popular Johnson could offset concerns by many voters about supporting a UKIP led initiative, thus delivering a ‘Breixt’ or a British exit from the EU. It is not Farage that poses the greatest threat to the UK’s membership of the EU, but Johnson.
The consequences for Ireland of a ‘Breixt’
Of all the member states, Ireland would be the most affected if the UK opted to leave the EU. Firstly, freedom of movement between Ireland and the UK would be curtailed. As the UK would no longer be a member of the EU and has opted out of the Schengen Area, where passport controls have been abolished, the British authorities would have to re-introduce travel restrictions between Ireland and Great Britain.
If the Common Travel Area was to remain in place, then EU migrants could still enter the UK via Ireland. Border controls would also have to be brought in between Northern Ireland and the Republic, as EU migrants might also attempt to enter the UK via the North.
Secondly, a ‘Breixt’ would all but make certain that Scotland would leave the UK. Such a move would be disastrous for Ireland, as Scotland would have the freedom to compete with Ireland for foreign direct investment. An independent Scotland would not only offer companies an English speaking and well-educated workforce, low corporation tax and EU membership, but it could also offer the prospect of better trade links with emerging economies, like India, through the Commonwealth.
Finally, there would be a shift towards more regulation in the EU without the UK in the Council of Ministers. The UK, like Ireland, supports free markets and without Great Britain, France, Italy and Greece would push for more regulation across the EU which would have an adverse effect on the economy of our biggest trading partner. It seems that once again Ireland’s future rests with decisions of UK leaders and their voters.
David Moloney is a PhD student at the University of Limerick after having been awarded a scholarship. His PhD will explore the role of MEPs and officials from the Council of Ministers in shaping the EU’s response to the economic crisis in the Member States. David is a former employee of the European Parliament.
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