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AS THE DUST has settled on the Local and European elections in Ireland, another election campaign has been gaining traction north of the border; Rishi Sunak’s snap UK general election is likely to hasten the demise of the political power of unionism as the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) braces for considerable losses.
Few political anoraks could have predicted a 4 July vote. Sunak’s decision to call an election whilst the Conservative party polls more than 20 points behind the Labour Party has puzzled analysts, some of whom suggest the party faces a wipeout as polls predict a collapse of the Conservative vote with losses nearing 300 MPs.
Considering Labour is led by the rather uninspiring Keir Starmer, this is more a testament to the level of dissatisfaction and disillusionment within Conservative bases after 14 years of political chaos.
In Northern Ireland, the lack of preparedness for an early election is evidenced by the absence of political posters; despite 136 candidates competing for just 18 seats in Westminster, entire constituencies remain largely poster-free and election material is equally absent from post boxes.
This election will not be about Sinn Féin. The party may have been the big story during the Assembly and Local Elections, surpassing expectations by emerging as the largest party in both but is unlikely to make many gains in the General election.
Sinn Féin currently holds seven out of 18 seats under an abstention policy and is expected to hold all seven, with outside chances of a gain in Foyle and East Derry.
Despite Social Democratic Labour Party (SDLP) leader Colum Eastwood holding one of the largest majorities in Northern Ireland, his seat in Foyle is considered vulnerable and would be the most likely gain, if any, for Sinn Féin. Following the poor showing in the Local Elections in the Republic, one would expect Sinn Féin to throw everything at Foyle in hopes of an electoral success story.
As for the SDLP, the party currently holds two seats at Westminster with Claire Hanna in South Belfast and Mid Down and Eastwood’s seat – both with huge majorities following an unprecedented 2019 election which saw cooperation and pacts between political parties who largely sought to oust the DUP. The electoral pacts of 2019 delivered two seats to the SDLP: one seat to the Alliance party in North Down and one seat to Sinn Féin in North Belfast.
This time around, the SDLP is not playing ball. Sinn Féin has informally assisted both the Alliance party and SDLP by not running candidates in East Belfast, North Down, South Belfast and Mid Down and Lagan Valley, whilst the SDLP has opted to run candidates in all 18 constituencies.
For Eastwood, this election is about survival; with the party suffering significant losses in the Local and Assembly elections, he must prove an electoral rebound in the vote share percentage even if he doesn’t deliver any extra seats. However, running paper candidates in marginal seats could backfire and further alienate nationalist voters. If Sinn Féin manages to unseat Eastwood, he will be left with no choice but to resign as party leader.
The success story of this election will be the Alliance party. Following gains in the Assembly and Local elections, the party – which defines itself as neither unionist nor nationalist – is best positioned to unseat several DUP MPs; Lagan Valley, Strangford, and East Belfast could all return an Alliance MP.
Eyes will be on MLA Sorcha Eastwood in Lagan Valley who came within 6,500 votes of the DUP in 2019. The seat had been held by former DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson for almost three decades, but following charges for historical sexual offences the party is running a new candidate, Upper Bann MLA Jonathan Buckley. If I were a betting person, my money would be on Sorcha Eastwood.
Meanwhile in East Belfast, Alliance leader Naomi Long will be fighting to unseat current DUP leader Gavin Robinson. Alliance will make gains, it is just a matter of how many, and whether stretching their resources will cost their current sitting MP Stephen Farry.
Farry is facing one of the toughest battles, with the DUP and TUV backing independent unionist Alex Easton in an attempt to remove Farry, he has also been subjected to higher levels of personal attacks and intimidation, likely to be close but Farry will benefit from incumbency.
For the DUP, big beasts of the party including Gregory Campbell, Jim Shannon, Ian Paisley Jr and Paul Girvan, along with party leader Gavin Robinson are all at risk. The party has no chance of making any gains, not only is Alliance right on the party’s heels but the Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) party is running in 14 constituencies with the express aim of harming the DUP electorally over its stance on the Northern Ireland protocol. Unionist infighting and dissent will split the vote and benefit non-unionist parties.
As for the rest, the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) appears set to make a gain from the DUP in South Antrim, and the Greens, Aontú, People Before Profit and independents make up the rest of the candidates but ultimately will have little impact on any result.
The UK General Election is set to mark the end of 14 years of conservatism and could further cement the demise of political unionism. With multiple party leaders vying for either a seat in Westminster or the survival of their political careers, this is one election that the whole island should be watching.
Emma DeSouza is a writer and campaigner.
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Comments closed on the Green Party leadership
That speaks volumes no how detested they are….
@David Cotter: hardly, it was a free for all for the last couple of days
@David Cotter: Or on how abusive many commenters choose to be about them.
@Brendan O’Brien: Yeah… I don’t really understand why people feel the need. They are not dishonest, they just have had to compromise to get some government policy to lean towards a more environmentally friendly country. A minority partner will never achieve many or any of their .manifesto ambitions. But then most of the abuse comes from those who have been triggered by the same dishonest troublemakers who instill hatred toward migrants, the EU or Irish Water employees!!
@David Cotter: here’s the thing, it doesn’t matter a fiddlers how much you or any other mouth breathers detest the green party and its members. You and your ilk never voted for them, anyway. All you can do is not vote for them again , you can’t down-vote them. Degrees of hatred don’t show up in elections.
Meanwhile those who always supported the greens will continue to quietly support them while you lot get hypertension. I predict a modest loss for the greens in the next GE but certainly not the annihilation that the haters predict. Your opinions don’t matter to the greens.
@Brendan O’Brien: You reap what you sow!
@Paul Ennis: So anybody who dislikes the greens is of one political group. That kite has been flying for a while now, saying if you do not blindly support all their actions you are alt right.
That is wrong.
@Gary Kearney: I never mentioned alt right. The Irish Water charges were one of PBP main platforms during austerity. I am merely explaining that the Green Party are being unfairly maligned because of their green policies OR because they haven’t achieved enough of their manifesto goals whilst in government. They are stuck between a rock and a hard place and ar lucky to have achieved anything at all if I’m honest.
SF is in government for decades yet are standing for change. That’s shinner logic
@John D Doe: FFG have been in government for 100 years. We have a health service on its knees and record number of homeless.
@brian madden: If thing were as bad in the South as commentators here try to portray, it would have been a landslide victory for SF. Look North and housing, health and pollution are in a bad way but SF are more interested in having street signs in Irish than tackling real problems.
@John D Doe: they are standing for ‘change’ in a parliament they refuse to take seats in. Sure, you couldn’t make it up. I think that is the single issue they don’t flip flop on.
I think the term rhymes with bankers.
@Vincent Alexander: you seem to alternate between your profiles. The budget up north is controlled by Westminster but you knew that already.. in the local elections many voters are voting for indivuals that they know rather than aligning themsekves with a party. SF did very poorly in the 2019 locals yet performed very well in the GE 2020. Maybe you need to do a bit of research before posting.
@brian madden: Surely ‘The budget up north is controlled by Westminster’ doesn’t mean that nothing can be achieved by local politicians? If it did, what would be the point of a devolved government in the first place? ‘The budget up north is controlled by Westminster’ seems like a catch-all excuse (along with blaming the other ‘side’ for everything).
Issues on which the Northern Ireland Assembly has full legislative (law making) powers:
health and social services
education
employment and skills
agriculture
social security
pensions and child support
housing
economic development
local government
environmental issues, including planning
transport
culture and sport
the Northern Ireland Civil Service
equal opportunities
justice and policing
@Vincent Alexander: they are too lazy to even show up to work. That’s the SF way
@brian madden: The budget in the North is controlled by Westminster to the extent that they make a subvention to the tune of £10 million to supplement the taxes collected in NI. In a united Ireland that amount would be paid by Southern taxpayers to the further detriment of housing and health. Yes, SF a party for change for worse.
@Brendan O’Brien: SF is part of a power sharing government in the part of Ireland ruled by London. London controls the budget. If you think Labour or the Tories will pay over the odds for a colony where they win no seats and that is in the exit lounge, I have a bridge to sell you. Therefore, SF has limited capacity to improve things.
@Vincent Alexander: “Southern taxpayers”? I think you will find that people in the northern part of our nation pay taxes too. Ending partition will improve the lot of every Irish person. Is there anything more embarrassing than Irish people who want to perpetuate the partition of our country?
@A Well Known Comical Stereotype: What about those of us that see ourselves as Northern Irish?
What do we do?
How exactly do you propose to “improve the lot” for my family?
Do you consider me Irish? I support partition, am I an embarrassment to you?
Why?
@A Well Known Comical Stereotype: Yes, SF has limited capacity to improve things (not no capacity).
@Brendan O’Brien: In addition to having to rely on a limited budget from W’minster, SF – a left wing party – also has to share power with the DUP – an extreme right wing, creationist party who are hell bent on stopping any progress being made in the North. A US comentator once likened power sharing in the North to Malcolm X going into power with white supremacist, George Wallace. So, yes SF is fully entitled to demad change up north.
@LuxLad: This would be more of a problem if SF were a genuinely left-wing rather than an ethnonationalist party.
@Brendan O’Brien: that support acts of atrocity yet hark on about war crimes anywhere else in the world. 35 years later STILL refuse to condemn civilians being murdered.
@A Well Known Comical Stereotype: thankfully that Kip to the north will never be our problem. The brits would hand it over in a heartbeat if they thought we were dumb enough to take it lol
@John D Doe: lol it’s not so bad. We just need to be free of extremist parties, whatever flag they wave or hat they wear. Beautiful scenery and warm people. Just the politics that are balls lol
@Thom Hunter: What about, indeed. If your fellow “Northern Irish” had treated the Irish in your gerrymandered jurisdiction with equality, there would be little chance of unity. But, my fellow Irish people were forced into an artificial statelet, with a confected sectarian majority. If you don’t want to be part of Ireland, after a majority vote for unity, you can move to the wonderful land that you think is so superior to Ireland. The British will think you are as much as Paddy as I am. Your family will be better off in a united Ireland, looking to the future, not living in 1690. If you don’t consider yourself Irish, knock yourself out.That is what freedom is about. Embarrassment – not to me. Why would you suggest such a thing?
@A Well Known Comical Stereotype: Why should a person who lives in their home, whose family come from the same place, move because the disagree with you position.
That attitude is part of the problem, if we are to have unification it will be all the island and ALL THE PEOPLE.
You are as bad as them going on about 1690 etc. Which is another part of the problem, still fighting battles between a Dutchman and a Scotsman with a Danish mother. For the British Crown!
Not an Irish person to be seen anywhere in the mix!
@Gary Kearney: Read what I wrote: “If you don’t want to be part of Ireland” – I am not telling anyone to move. He has options.He is welcome to stay. My point was missed by you. If he goes somewhere else, he will be treated as an Irishman. Later I said: “Your family will be better off in a united Ireland”. So, I was actually advising him to stay.
@Gary Kearney: good man. I agree totally
@A Well Known Comical Stereotype: good lad. You expose yourself with such views. At no point did I refer to myself as anything other than Northern Irish. I was born here, as were my parents and 3/4 grandparents. Where or why should I go? On who’s authority? You have assumed that we were part off setting up some sort of ethnic state, fine. I was born in the 1970s however, so you cannot play the blame card. I wasn’t alive. I certainly do not live in 1690. Your opinion may well be formed about people like me. Fine. I have no problem looking to the future. You might do though.
Again PLEASE tell me what will be so wonderful for my family in the event of a UI. Being told if I don’t like it to FO? Do you work in sales at all fella?
@A Well Known Comical Stereotype: There are taxes in NI and this is supplemented by the British government to pay for services. Partition has existed for over a hundred years and Northern people have developed a different mentality to Southerners. I’m not embarrassed by not looking forward to unification. There is a high probability of civil unrest and higher taxes with no pluses.
@Thom Hunter: but I would say you consider yourself British.
@Paul Dunne: I am Northern Irish. We are different. That is how it is. Post 1998, we are allowed to define ourselves as we see fit. British, Irish, both or none.
@John D Doe: Pretty certain SF have never taken their seats in Parliament, never mind taking a maximum possible 18 seats and forming a majority government in a house of over 600.
@John D Doe: Just like the Blue shirt Nazi supporters down here.
Labour is led by a Tory. It’s seems to be a common political situation in the West where there’s very little difference between the two main parties.
@Uí Braonáin: Labour is led by a center left politician, not a Tory.
The party moved back to their more central position after failing miserably as a further left wing party.
They want to be in government and the UK public does not want a far left government.
So they went back towards the middle to get the support they need to govern the country.
@Gary Kearney: Sir Kid Starver is the establishment candidate. It is clear that he will not rock the boat. The drover’s dog could win this election. Starmer has made Labour Tory-lite. He didn’t have to, Labour was always going to win this election. He chose to. He has purged the party of many good people, replacing them with opportunists and zionists. The First Past the Post system guarantees the two big parties take turns. Two cheeks of the same backside.
@Gary Kearney: A ‘centre left’ politician that supports Israel, has brought over Conservative donors and MPs from the Tories, is a self-entitled British patriot and is pro-business and very critical of workers whenever there’s industrial action and trade disputes(akin to our own FG ministers).
How can na make a videos
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