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UKRAINE’S SUMMER COUNTEROFFENSIVE began in earnest in the first week of June. This followed months of intense fighting around Bakhmut, where Putin’s forces – led by Yevgeny Prighozhin’s Wagner mercenaries – were halted in a faltering and extremely costly Russian assault in the Donetsk Oblast.
In the aftermath of the savage – but ultimately unsuccessful – Wagner-led offensive around Bakhmut, Prighozin led his mercenaries on a wild advance towards Moscow, halting briefly in Rostov on Don. Prighozin demanded that Putin hand Russian military commander General Valery Gerasimov and Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu over to his paramilitaries for summary treatment.
This extraordinary development – falling just short of a coup attempt – happened in late June, just as Ukrainian forces were shaping and developing their counteroffensive against Russian positions. As I predicted at the time, Prighozin’s challenge to Putin’s authority would lead directly to his death just over a week ago.
The aftermath of Prighozin’s challenge to Putin and the subsequent and ongoing purge within the Kremlin and the wider Russian military provides some context for the current progress and prospects for Ukraine’s counteroffensive.
First of all, President Zelenskyy’s counteroffensive has been painfully slow. I use the word ‘painful’ as any gains made by Ukraine have come at a massive human cost. Ukraine does not publish its casualties, but in conventional military operations, the attrition rate among attacking forces is generally higher than that of defending troops in heavily fortified, static positions.
Since June, Ukraine has maintained offensive operations along the entirety of the 1000 km front – from Kherson in the west, with heavy fighting around Robotyne in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Further east, Ukraine continues to mount probing attacks around Bakhmut and is rapidly preparing potential defensive operations in Luhansk and Kharkiv Oblasts – where Putin has concentrated forces for a possible assault on Kupyansk.
Ukraine has made some progress across this extended front. Just recently, Zelenskyy’s forces have managed to cross the Dnipro River, gaining a strategic foothold at Kozachi Laheri – approximately 40km east of Kherson. This is a significant development and the Ukrainian military will seek to consolidate their positions here and exploit advances south along the E97 road network – toward the Black Sea coastline.
Whilst tying up Russian resources in the Kherson Oblast – preventing their diversion to reinforce Zaporhzhzhia – this development also has the potential to split Putin’s forces in the Dnipro delta.
Further east, Ukraine’s forces are reported to have liberated the town of Robotyne. This is a very significant development as it represents a breach of Russia’s second tier of in-depth defences in the strategic Zaporhizhzhia province. Having taken Robotyne, Ukraine will hold the strategic high ground in this area and would be poised to manoeuver south through Novoprokopivka and Tokmak towards Melitipol. This is a distance of less than 100km. If successful in this endeavour, Ukrainian forces would sever Putin’s ‘land corridor’ from Russia’s Rostovskaya Oblast to the Crimean Peninsula.
These advances have come at a very high cost. In the last three months of relentless fighting, a pattern of ground combat has emerged. Ukraine, lacking air superiority, has evolved its own hybrid strategy of battlefield tactics in order to dislodge Russian forces and to re-take Ukrainian territory.
Zelenskyy’s forces have used conventional combined arms tactics against entrenched positions – intense, converged and creeping artillery fire – followed closely by engineers with specialised de-mining systems and intensive mine clearance operations to clear pathways for tanks and infantry mounted in armoured fighting vehicles.
Reminiscent of the tactics of World War 1 – artillery barrages, followed by infantry assaults on enemy trenches – the Ukrainians have the advantage of western supplied Leopard tanks and state of the art combat vehicles such as US supplied Bradley AFVs to manoeuver their infantry into the heart of enemy trench networks.
The Ukrainian military has been forced to mount these assaults with little or no air cover and is vulnerable to Russian counter-battery fire and drone and airstrikes on their troops in the open. To ameliorate these challenges, the Ukrainians have made highly imaginative use of drones to precision-target Putin’s artillery positions, logistics and ammunition dumps and troop concentrations. One of the lessons of this conflict will likely involve the deployment of drones and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to all military formations – organic and integral to all units.
Ukraine has also made significant use of open source intelligence (OSINT) and digital data – often from mobile phone communications among Russian ‘Mobiks’ or mobilised reservists.
With the aid of AI, the Ukrainian military has pioneered the harvesting of such data to identify command and control centres and critical defensive positions for precision targeting.
The re-taking of territory has involved a recurring cycle of frontal, attritional assault as described. Once pathways have been cleared, the leading armoured units – equipped with Leopard tanks and other variants supplied by NATO member states – provide precision or ‘intimate’ fire support to allow the infantry to approach Russian trenches. What happens next is brutal hand-to-hand combat, where Ukrainian troops assault Russian reservists at close quarters, at gunpoint with grenade and bayonet attacks. A great deal of footage of this type of savage combat has made its way onto digital platforms and is widely shared on social media.
September heralds the arrival of autumn and Ukraine will be keen to exploit this emerging ‘gap’ in Putin’s defences in Zaporizhzhia and re-take Melitipol. If Zelenskyy’s forces can reach the Sea of Azov – they will inflict a major defeat on Putin’s ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine. The window of opportunity for Ukraine to achieve this strategic objective is narrowing with the approach of winter and it is conceivable that this war will rumble on into next spring – making Putin’s ‘3 day war’ a marathon two-year catastrophe.
Putin’s forces have not yet lost the initiative in this war and are concentrating their forces – perhaps as many as 100,000 reservists – for a possible offensive to re-take parts of the Kharkiv Oblast. However, in the aftermath of Prighozin’s assassination – a major purge of Russia’s general staff is underway.
Putin’s much-vaunted General Sergei ‘armageddon’ Surovikin – responsible for war crimes in Syria – has been relieved of his command in Ukraine and is believed to be detained.
Along with these Kremlin figures, several other senior Russian generals have been sacked, disappeared or killed in action. These include General Valery Gerasimov who is said to be ‘resting’ – along with the deputy director of Russian Intelligence, General Vladimir Alexseev, General Vladimir Seliverstov of the 106th Airborne Division, General Ivan Popov of the 58th Army, General Andrey Yudin of the Air Force, General Nikolay Gostev of the 4th Air Force Army and General Mikhail Mizintsev, the ‘Butcher of Mariupol’. General Oleg Toskov was recently killed in action in Ukraine. All of these ‘resting’ or ‘disappeared’ Generals were heavily involved in directing major Russian combat operations – and possible war crimes – throughout Putin’s botched invasion of Ukraine.
Whilst Ukraine continues to endure Putin’s criminal invasion, and whilst it continues to lose thousands of young men and women in combat – their motivation to fight is assured, they are fighting for their very survival. Putin’s mobilised reservists or ‘Mobiks’ will find it difficult to continue fighting and dying for Putin’s increasingly futile vanity project. Their military leadership is in disarray and Prigozhin’s act of defiance – and its aftermath – have seriously undermined Putin’s authority and the ability of his military to deliver an unambiguous ‘victory’ in Ukraine.
To continue this conflict – in the face of unsustainable casualties, along with a possible rout in Zaporizhzhia – Putin will come under increasingly hostile scrutiny from within the Kremlin itself. Yevgeny Prigozhin’s prophetic warning should be noted here – ‘I have to be honest, Russia is on the brink of disaster. If these cogs are not adjusted today, the plane will fall apart in mid-air’.
Dr Tom Clonan is a retired Army Officer and former Lecturer at TU Dublin. He is currently an Independent Senator on the Trinity College Dublin Panel, Seanad Éireann.
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Articles like this the night before the exams don’t help!
@P Quinn: you think they are on the Journal? Xbox/Playstaion morelike!
@GerryCummins: the country must be full of psychology quacks of every shape, make and creed. You cannot read a publication of any type without coming across an article on stress or anxiety to the point where kids are now being brainwashed to believing that they are nothing unless they are affected in some way. Just leave them , each to their own ways.
Leaving cert is brilliant, keeps 60,000 teenagers off the streets for 12months and it keeps 25,000 otherwise unemployable teachers off the dole.
@Adolf Galland: Ouch that’s just mean. Great the hear you’ve such a high opinion of Ireland’s youth and the professionals educating them. As a special ed teacher how do you figure I’m otherwise unemployable?
@Adolf Galland: well educated thanks. I decided to be a teacher but am not otherwise unemployable
@Adolf Galland: I’m baffled it seems 70 people agreed with that comment as ridiculous as it is.
Id never go back to that stress again- rather my 9-5 job than sit the leaving cert. I still have the odd nightmare that I’m sitting in the exam hall, aged 45 and trying to remember how I ended up back in school and taking some obscure subject, that I haven’t a breeze about .
Time to get rid of the leaving cert it’s to stressful for kids now a day. Every student should just be allowed to apply for what ever course they want to do in college with out the need for points.
@Humphrey Harold Haddington: Think of the failure rate in 1st year! One of the main reasons behind LC stress is that it is the first time any student does an exam which actually has consequences. What happens to a 6th class student who is only borderline literate? Nothing, they go to Secondary School. What happens to a student who fails JC Maths? Nothing, they go on to LC Maths.
@Humphrey Harold Haddington: and reap
@G Manning: apologies…and replace it with what? Not disagreeing but needs an alternative. Any kid can apply for any course, doesn’t mean they get it of course. Are u saying any student should get whatever they want regardless of ability?
@Humphrey Harold Haddington: ridiculous statement.
@G Manning: people should be allowed to become what ever they want to be, why do we put barriers in front of them. The cure to cancer may well be trapped inside the mind of a kid who didnt get six hundred points in their leaving cert but yet because of that they cannot study medicine.
@Humphrey Harold Haddington: so everyone should be doctors/architects etc etc? What happens when 95% + drop out cos they can’t cut it??? The only thing in the majority of people’s way is ability and application. Your position is just ridiculous, dangerous if it wasn’t too silly and amusingly uninformed. Any active involvement in education?
@Humphrey Harold Haddington: and then what? Just let everyone qualify in whatever they want to be without the need for college exams, which in my experience are 100 times more stressful? There has to be some system to differentiate between people, and the leaving cert is definitely one of the fairest ways out there
@COYBIG: hell of a lot more pressure in the leaving cert. Its end of the world stuff at sucj a young age. You can repeat college exams. That safety net is at the back of your mind when you’re wrecked after pullin all nighters and the end of year Ball is around the corner.
@sean o’dhubhghaill: absolutely true. Only country where you can fail one level and go on to the next. Like the Driving test. Teachers been battling this one for years. And kids are total snowflakes nowadays. Total meltdown when the phone is taken off them.
@Bruce van der Gutschmitzer: you can repeat the LC
@Bruce van der Gutschmitzer: from personal experience I’d disagree but I believe most people who do tough college courses will agree that college exams are a lot more stressful than the leaving cert
@mr magoo: you’ve to go through another year of hell to repeat though whereas you can repeat your college exams a couple of months later. I repeated and hated every minute of it as my friends text me to visit them. Got me to where I am now but fack doin that again.
@COYBIG: the subject matter may be more difficult depending on what you’re studying or indeed easier but the whole experience at that age is torture. At least in college you’re doing something that gives u direction and u have an interest in.
I am the parent of a Leaving Cert and a Junior Cert student starting tomorrow.
I am more stressed then they are, mostly to ensure they get to their schools on time!!!
I will be glad when it is over and we can finally have a holiday…since they have been working since January, especially pre’s, Leaving Cert orals, projects etc.
Really hope it goes well for everyone!!
At least it’s not sunny ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Aaaa God love them. We all had the stress. Wait until they have to get a job and buy a house
@David Saunders:
True!
They have little to be stressed about compared to what will lie ahead.
Why don’t we close down social media for the Leaving Certificate, and while we are at it, the third level college exams
All this talk of stress is ridiculous, went for a walk or played sport would be much better than stuck on a smart phone, snow flakes the whole lot. Sure the LC has been dumbed down, you can’t even fail now
@Peter Byrne: agreed but no it hasn’t and yes you can
@Peter Byrne: you can’t really call them snowflakes when we’ve created the beast of social media and smartphones. They’re a product of their environment.
@Peter Byrne: you definitely can fail the leaving cert. most of us wouldn’t be able for higher level maths, for what I can see, I know I wouldn’t…
@Peter Byrne: and you sir are exactly what is wrong with the older generation in Ireland. It’s no wonder kids are killing themselves in droves with your attitude.
@Dermot Foley: sympathies to any family it affects but unless ur definition of droves differs from most that’s some mad exaggeration
@Dermot Foley: in droves? Exaggerate much?
@GerryCummins: a young lad in my club just killed himself. My partner had two girls in her school try to commit suicide in the one day last week. She’s seen a steady increase in kids self harming and attempting suicide. Compared to 20/30 years ago self harm and suicide is off the charts I would assume.
@G Manning: Actually you can’t fail your LC anymore. The concept of passing or failing your LC hasn’t existed in about 20 years. You just get a statement of your results, each subject graded O or H and 1 to 8. No pass or fail.
From an early age, kids should be taught how to deal with failure. Let them find out that people who fail at something are also learning something which will help them in their next effort. The idea that kids must be protected from anything approaching failure in case it upsets them is absolute nonsense.
The LC needs reform but awaiting a practical path to doing so. Think the increase in stress is more associated with the social media echo chamber and lack of coping skills than any increase in difficulty or importance.
Who benefits from this rubbish? Whereas all of the charities mentioned aboe are wonderful and do great work. I believe that we are seeing a huge rise in the number of people ‘suffering from stress’. What do you expect? Everywhere they look young people are been bombarded with stories about stress, mindfulness etc etc etc. A who industry has emerged that survives on the basis that we have all developed mental health issues that need their product. It’s normal to be stressed. It’s terrible for those with mental health issues that they are now lumped in with people about to sit an exam.
Social media being blamed again.
The entire population is probably more anxious but it is down to what we eat, drink & breath.
We cannot eat food adulterated with preservatives & flavour enhancers (that we didn’t evolve with) to not have concequences for our physical & mental health.
Ditto for fuel vapours, diesel exhaust & emissions from some plastics.
Our modern environment is causing inappropriate immune responses in many of us and triggering a sensation of anxiety that is being confused with an emotion.
@Chemical Brothers: If you believe that, you are beyond redemption.
@Yzo Sirrius: it’s fairly valid. The huge increase in Alzheimers and dementia and cancer is most likely environmental factors since we’ve moved away from working the land with our bare hands horses and eating our own produce.
@Bruce van der Gutschmitzer: no, much of the increase is due to more of us reaching old age. More of us are now getting to see old age probably because we aren’t burning out our bodies ‘working the land with our bare hands’.
@Chemical Brothers: This doesn’t explain why more kids are anxious today than those who went through the system in the 80s, 90s, 00s. Many of whom who were exposed to much more toxic chemicals.
@Chris Healy: that’s a contributing factor too no doubt. But tell that to the 36 Yr old woman with early onset dementia in my granny’s nursing home. Dementia has shown to be increasing dramatically the last decade and will hit epidemic proportions in 20 years.
Blame the parents.
@Andy Dwyer: stupid comment
@Andy Dwyer: i think that the era of social media and connected devices just gives more oxygen to the stress – there was never a time that people taking lc weren’t anxious – there was just no outlet to talk it up like nowadays- so maybe its the first reality check for 18 year olds that life’s journey needs a bit of effort – no harm – times are changing and no doubt some modernization will creep into lc in years ahead….ya can be sure every year the same ” oh the stress” story will be repeated regardless around this time…
@Dave Hammond: therein lies the problem-social media. Kids are more anxious with the constant accessibility to social media and the effort needed to keep up appearances. Kids can’t shut off as easy as older generations. Throw a high pressure situation on an image obsessed yet highly insecure teen and you’ve got a recipe for disaster.
@Andy Dwyer: blame Donald trump everyone else does
Having flashbacks and nightmares decades later is the same thing that war veterans have from PTSD. Guys this isn’t normal. I don’t think people in other countries get PDST from their education system. We need to stop thinking this is normal.
There in for a big fright when they leave school then they will know stress
Young people are under huge stress than ever before .I was a school guidance counsellor in Dundalk for nearly 30 years.I have never seen our young people being under such stress and anxiety than I do at the present time .
Guidance counsellors play a key role in schools helping young people as a support.They play a vital role in looking after the mental well being of our young people.However in the budget of 2012 Ruairi Quinn nearly decimated the service with cuts .IThere have been small moves to row back on the cuts.But even still a second level school can not have a full time counsellor unless it has a minimum of 700 students.The cuts are still crippling the service.Shame on Ruaidi Quinn , Labour and Fine Gael for. what they did and on FF.fir not reversing the cuts completly as promised
@Gerry Malone: their actions have led to kids killing themselves. They have blood on their hands. My partners school has 1 guidance counsellor for 1300 children. She barely gets a break or lunch as they queue up outside her office in need of help. She’s only just after being given her full time dedicated position at that. Our education system is a joke.
I would dearly loved to have had Leaving cert Stress.
I had to wait until I was 24 to get the equivalent for which I paid my own tuition fees at night school.
i didn’t blame social media…..i said that it merely gives oxygen to the number of discussions about the ‘stress’ – we were eating mc donalds and driving diesel cars and in fact before the coal ban in dublin the air quality was actually far far worse than today….’inappropropriate immune responses’ me hole – such horse shit…..
Most over rated exam you will ever do. Unfortunately it’s not until a few yrs later that you realise how insignificant it is.
Pity offer no finincial support to leaving Cert students, they get no child benefit iif they turn 18 before or during leaving Cert year. It seems the government expect them to survive on nothing during such a difficult year. Regina Doherty and Katherine Zappone need to support the youth.
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