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OUR PAST TWO governments have developed a string of slogans about the economy that inevitably lead to parody, as Ireland keeps threatening to turn corners and take off like a rocket.
In looking at the data for the first half of 2012 I’m reminded of a scene from The Right Stuff that about encapsulates how we’ve been managing:
YouTube/ugowar
Retail sales are lower than they were in 2005; manufacturing is going the wrong way fast; and unemployment is, at 14.8 per cent, the highest it has been since the beginning of the recession. Indeed, every month so far in 2012 has had a higher unemployment rate than the average for 2011, 13.6 per cent.
The last time unemployment was at the levels seen in every month in 2012 to date was for two months in 1994. I suppose we have a government half of whom served in the mid-90s, so we might as well have the same old unemployment rate.
Cast your mind back to the national recovery plan, where it was expected that we would have an unemployment rate of 12 per cent in 2012. Good luck with that.
Every month we are bombarded with reams of economic data – Live Register this, retail sales that, GDP the other – that is hardly analysed on its own merits, let alone together. The quality of economic reporting, painting a whole picture for the public, is woeful. What does it really mean when we’re told that the Live Register went up or down by 2,300 people in a month? Did those folks get jobs, emigrate, or disappear into a big black hole?
The seasonally adjusted Live Register did decrease by 2,300 in July. Indeed, there were about 10,000 fewer people on the adjusted Live Register in July 2012 versus July 2011 – though the unemployment rate is actually higher than the 14.5 per cent we recorded at that time. The commentators on this website often jump straight in and point out that emigration is probably the source of any drop, and while they’re not wrong that it’s a part of it the problem runs deeper.
Indeed, people who emigrate are – if they get work abroad – probably doing better than some of the people who stay behind in Ireland but fall out of the workforce. We’re brewing a major long term problem in our workforce that is analogous to the collapse in the workforce of mining towns in the UK, when thousands found themselves trapped on benefits and entire families become reliant on welfare as the trap is spread from parent to child.
The Live Register, as we’re told every month, is not a measure of unemployment. It includes people who are casual or part time workers; and it does not include people who are involved in state training, for example, or who have left the workforce completely because – say – their benefits run out. These things in and of themselves tell a story.
There is a little reported statistic, because it can be difficult to quantify, called “Under Employment”. It differs from unemployment because it looks at all those who would, if they could, be working full time. People in part time or casual work; people who are no longer claiming benefits because, for example, their stamps ran out and they are no longer eligible because of, say, their spouses income; and, if you like, those who emigrate because they can’t find work here.
Some 88,000 of the 460,000 people on the Live Register in July were casual or part time, representing 19.1 per cent of the total. This was up from almost 86,000 a year earlier, or 18.3 per cent of the total at that time. It is better to have some work than no work at all, but we can assume many of these people could prefer full time work.
The amount of people in the workforce has been steadily trending downwards. The number of people in the workforce is, like our retail sales, back in 2005, a year when Crazy Frog made it to number one in the singles chart for four weeks. (That’s how bad things are getting). There’s 2.09 million people in the workforce today, down from a peak of 2.24m in mid-2008. Those no longer with us haven’t all emigrated, but have fallen into the black hole of discouraged workers and those without further entitlement to benefits.
The long term unemployment rate continues its steady march upwards, now over 200,000 people. When the numbers get this high it’s difficult to conceptualise it properly in your head, but that’s 200,000 people who haven’t had a job for over a year. Their skills are eroding, they’re losing contact with their old peers and colleagues, and find it more and more difficult to get work when there’s plenty of young up and coming blood graduating college each year behind them.
Speaking of young blood, there’s fantastic news! That is, if you’re doing the usual Irish press thing of reporting the top line numbers. The unemployment rate for people under 25 is now at a mere 17.5 per cent, down from 20.3 per cent in 2010. There really aren’t any hard numbers on where they’re all gone, though rumour has it that Skype’s revenue in Ireland is growing well.
Not counted at all in the 460,000 on the Live Register are the additional 76,500 people who are engaged in state programs like JobBridge and training programs.
Given the effectiveness of many of these programs – stacking shelves in supermarkets for an extra €50 a week, or FAS courses that leave people less likely to get a job than those who don’t take them – one has to wonder if ministers spend millions and billions of our money on them for the benefit of the unemployed, or to massage the unemployment figures.
In all the jumping around about jobs initiatives and the 100,000 that are going to be pulled from a hat any day now, we haven’t heard much about what the grand plan is to deal with the systemic levels of unemployment that have set in; particularly for people from certain industries that, one way or another, ain’t coming back to deliver 200,000 jobs.
I’ve suggested in the past that we might spend our money for training the unemployed a little better, but it seems the government is focused on doubling down on bets like job placements valeting cars to upskill our unemployed.
As per usual however, there is a head in the sand approach from government (“Problem? What problem? Haven’t you seen our latest jobs press conference? We must have employed at least ten people to do the catering.”) Their tax increases are exacerbating the situation – surprise, surprise, you take money from individuals and families, they spend less, shops and businesses close, the economy contracts – and they continue to deliver crappy training programs. On top of that, they then go and sanction huge price rises for state owned monopolies in everything from public transport to energy and heating while the rest of the world fights to reduce costs and keep competitive.
Our economic data is bad, but worse than the headlines is the stuff we’re missing under the surface beyond worrying about emigration. We’ve got hundreds of thousands of people who have careers and future life prospects disappearing before their eyes. We’re four years down the rabbit hole and nowhere near climbing back out, and we’re hardly taking a step to mitigate the damage that will do to the lives of those stuck.
It would be good if we could acknowledge that, and start to do something about it.
As for those rockets, it should be noted that after the work of millions of people involved in the space program they got off the ground. The first American to ride one of them into space, Alan Shepard, eventually went on to play golf on the moon after overcoming his own personal challenges. Hard work, perseverance and ingenuity will always pay off.
Aaron McKenna is a businessman and a columnist for TheJournal.ie. You can find out more about him at aaronmckenna.com or follow him on Twitter @aaronmckenna.
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Can’t argue with anything in this article Aaronn! I’m wondering why Enda Kenny hasn’t been questioned more thoroughly about his 5 point plan, that supposedly would create 100,000 jobs though! It seems that telling massive lies in order to gain power is deemed acceptable in Ireland!
Why is it that the first comment on any article by Arron McKenna is always complementary? Gus Grissom also featured in the “Right Stuff” and he was burned alive on Apollo 1. It is indicative of the selective interpretation that bedevils human endeavour. Statistics are not free from human interpretation and thus are as flawed as human interpretation. As for the statement “Hard work, perseverance and ingenuity will always pay off”, White, Grissom and Chaffee prove that statement comprehensively wrong.
Charles – I’d say that the Apollo 1 fire (and apologies to anyone who thinks we’re getting very esoteric now, or are stretching the metaphor) was indicative of the disastrous results of poor management and planning. The program itself was a success in its eventual aims.
Aaron, the Apollo 1 fire was not the result of “poor management”. It was the result of an electrical fault (happens in experimental vehicles) in a pure oxygen environment. The Apollo programme was a success and the reason that it was a success was not because it had millions of people involved (it didn’t) it had access to silly amounts of money. Now where is that in your analogy?
The Apollo programme was one of the biggest stimulus packages of all time.
Everything seems to be going to plan then .
When the stimulus package runs out the answer is more stimulus packages! Yeah right! That is just social welfare for scientists.
Charles – the fire was sparked by a frayed electrical wire, but it was caused by bad management – as the report into the fire found. Having a cabin filled with Velcro was raised as a concern but ignored, as just one of the key problems (Velcro is inert at sea level, but under pressure it’s highly flammable, and in a near pure oxygen environment to boot).
Anyway, geeky stuff ;-)
Wrong again Aaron. The ignition source could not be determined and the review board came up with several possible causes. Prototypes are built to discover possible faults. It just so happens that this fault had tragic consequences and the 1000s of other faults went unnoticed by the public because the consequences were not severe. It was not the direct result of bad management but what is termed in aviation circles as ‘graveyard engineering’. You have fallen into the logical fallacy called the ‘historians fallacy’ which occurs when one interprets historical events using information which became available subsequent to the events and simply was not available to the people at that time.
Major sidebar now Charles :-) Anyway, we’ll agree to disagree and leave it down for another forum.
Be careful you be labelled unpatriotic by our government for these honest comments Aaron.
Your messing with their media silence agenda.
There is no jobs plan. The harsh fact is that no-one knows how to deal with this very serious issue. especially the extremely well paid geniuses brought into do exactly that!
The long-termed unemployed, including myself, are so discriminated against that at this stage there is no point in applying for jobs any more. This is fully known by the department yet all they choice to do is blame us rather than deal with issues head on.
Personally, I have highlighted numerous barriers preventing me from returning to the workforce and as yet, not one unemployment expert has been able to address those issues and I bet I’m not the only one.
Last week I went to psychometric tests for -yet another- full time course to “upskill” or was it “retrain”.. Anyway, on my day there was at least 60 people taking the test for 6 different courses and that was day 1. The tests ran for the next 2 days also. Yet there is no guarantee that I’ll get onto the course or even if I do, that there will be a job at the end of it. I wouldn’t mind, but I’ve do so many courses at this stage I could run one, blindfolded.
Until such time as those with the power to do something, actually get off their well paid behinds and do just that, then we will remain as we are.
Aaron this discussion exposes your analogy as flawed and the choosing of such was a poor choice as it has defeated the point you were trying to make. It does demonstrate however that in general when extraneous variables come to light they are dismissed rather than examined. This is one of the main curses of human intellectual endeavour. The simple fact of the matter is that there are many more factors at play in the Irish economy than you and many others are either unable or unwilling to encompass and evaluate. I am just wondering how you are going to get the books to balance while financing a moon programme! Borrow! Raise Taxes! Cut Hospital Services! Get the lazy people off the Dole! Ah… the same old, same old that we have been hearing since ancient times!
Let’s do this Charles!!
The people of Iceland forced their corrupt government to resign.
A public assembly was created to rewrite the constitution.
The banks were nationalized, it was decided not to pay the debt that PRIVATE banks created.
All of this in a peaceful way…
What would happen if the rest of the world took this as an example?
@Ireland Reborn, it is not a rocket ship you need but a time machine. If you succeed in changing history I will be the first to nominate you for a Nobel Prize. ;)
@Charles
I understand what you mean. The best time to do this would have been 4 years a go but the second best time to it now!!
Great article!
Just wanted to point out, however, that sometimes no job is better than some job. Those on a 3 day week, for example, can find themselves without enough time to spend on finding a new job, but also spending money on travel, child-minding, etc.
No redundancy payment means they can’t afford to quit, so they forget ahead without any disposable income or savings…leading to the vicious circle you’ve described above re: no one spending.
Agreed! The data on all of this is a joke and again costing a fortune to collect, digest, report on and then doing nothing about it.
With regards to courses I’m afraid this appears to be purely an exercise in data juggling. If we are going to the effort of up skilling or learning new subjects or a trade then I think there should be standards set and most important these standards should be met and get rid of the ” get the people passed no matter what” attitude. This is only fooling ourselves again.
200,000 unemployed, my wages cannot take anymore.
I’d agree with your sentiment Tom in that there is far too much negativity around at the moment but figures don’t speak…and what doesn’t speak, doesn’t lie. The entire political mind set in this country is give them more of the same…no thinking outside the box. Kenny made promises (as all politicians do) prior to the last election that he hadn’t an intention of keeping…he knew this country was beaten down by the most worthless, useless government since the foundation of the State and played on that to get into power. If negativity is abound it’s driven in no small part by the government throwing out promises, plans, incentives etc like snuff at a wake and none of them are working in any meaningful way. The so called 5 point plan is a joke…their dealngs in Europe are an embarrasment and the situation here continues to slide. Hard to face the sun wen we’re face down in the mud.
Yes Tony. All politicians make promises, but to promise to reduce unemployment by over 20%, and 18 months later, unemployment has actually increased! Now that’s what I call taking the P—!!
Completely agree rodrigo…but we bought into it (well I did as I voted the circus into own) but the entire political body is running out of time and road as they are going to have a hoor of a time selling us promises next time round.
At this stage one can only suppose that the policy is actually deliberate…that the government WANTS this outcome.
They certainly don’t show any interest in reforming anything.
This article is typical negative press. Highlight every negative stat you can find, slate any effort being made,and stick nonsense like, “Our economic data is bad, but worse than the headlines is the stuff we’re missing…..etc…..It would be good if we could acknowledge that, and start to do something about it.”
Who is missing it Aaron ????
Are you as a so called seriousl journalist suggesting that people can’t see what is going on ?
Or that they are not genuinely trying to get us out of this “rabbit hole” as you call it.
Real journalism gives an honest and fair reflection of every side.
Your article is negative from start to finish. You can accuse me of being a government supporter but that is not really true, I’m a supporter of trying to be positive.
Your style of negative journalism definitely adds more to the problem, this continous feeding of negativity is horrible.
Every day we each one of us have a personnal choice, I can try and be positive or I can be negative. Regardless what life throws at us and there is countless examples of people being positive in the face of great challenges/troubles.
I am not saying governments shouldn’t be challenged and held accountable and we should all follow like sheep,
What I’m saying is similar to the old saying……you can be a part of the problem or you can be a part of the solution.
I’m suggesting Aaron the negativity in articles like this add to the problem. It certainly won’t brighten anyone’s day and yet there is nothing new in it. It is not reporting any new story, simply rehashing negative stuff.
Finally again, I belong to no political group, my head is not in the clouds, I simply do not like this one sided view of anything. There are many good people of every political colour and many many non political people trying to turn things around, against a tide of negativity.
So Tom, how long have you been unemployed?
I agree, this is an opinion piece masquerading as fact. It reads like one long negative comment from the most depressing contributors to the threads here. While I know we’re in the shit and things aren’t great I don’t see the harm in positivity rather than wallowing in the misery which we as a nation are more than inclined towards. The “everyone loves a car crash” approach fed to us contributes to this and ultimately becomes self fulfilling. While the reality of the situation we’re in is depressing, this can be framed by the approach to reporting on it and I fail to see how unmitigated negativity is helpful.
2 part time jobs rodrigo, trying to support a family. Struggling but I get nothing more out of life than voluntary work in an area I’d love to be employed in.
At the last election I was foolish enough to think that as a country we’d work together to move on, but the tribal shit never ends….. good guys… bad guys… them and us. NO one has all the answers, no party is all good and none is all bad. This suggestion that people don’t care enough to try annoys me. I believe in people, sometimes wrongly but I will continue to believe in people.
Firstly, I am a columnist and I do write opinion pieces. There’s no bone made about that.
Secondly, I’m not discussing this data to be negative – the data is a fact, not an opinion – but to point out that we have several systemic problems in our labour force for which there is no solution even being discussed, let alone put in effect.
We can ignore this and try to stay positive, but positivity alone without action will achieve nothing.
What are we doing with our long term unemployed to make them employable after years on the dole…? Why are we persisting with state training program’s that are proven to be ineffective? Etc.
Putting on the green jersey and smiling isn’t going to help folks that become trapped on the outside looking in on the jobs market.
Thats more like it guys. Ignore the date, ignore the lies, put a big smile on your face and pretend everything is fine. Don’t forget to slag off anyone who points out the naked truth, better to live in a bubble of positive self delusion. You don’t need to worry, our politicians will sort it out.
Altogether now ” it’s not happening, it’s not happening, everything is just fine, there, there!”
Positivity alone will not change things but what does that say about negativity alone? I don’t understand this mentality of getting down and rolling in the misery, It achieves nothing. I see a lot of problems but no answers here and while the whole space programme isn’t a great analogy do you think the people involved looked at the huge task involved and thought this is too hard or did they get stuck in?
Faceless man, I think I’m making some tangible suggestions as to solving negative problems around long term unemployment etc.
Criticising the media and government spin on unemployment figures is important. It’s very important, actually, to have the right figures and try to understand what’s really happening. And Tom Kenny I disagree that this article is negative press – what’s happening in this country is negative and if the government is going to keep sticking their fingers in their ears and pretend it’s not happening, we’re going to have an even bigger problem.
First step to making positive changes is to acknowledge there is a problem and then to understand the problem. Only then can you fix it.
This article actually gave me hope and made me feel better because at least we’re talking about the reality of the situation.
Tom,sometimes the truth can hurt but it is still the truth
“Every truth passes through three stages before it is recognized In the first it is ridiculed, in the second it is opposed, in the third it is regarded as self-evident”
Arthur Schopenhauer
@Sean O’Keeffe, Who is denyiny the truth, that is not the issue :p
Tom the truth is this government (no more than the last) is not effectively tackling this crisis and does not appear to have the competence to.
There are many measures and policies that could help begin to turn the economy around but these aren’t being implemented.
In Iceland, the first European country to wake up to an economic crash, people became aware that they could and should intervene in society and started demanding more democratic participation.
The payment of bank debts by citizens went to referendum. The government was forced to create a Council to write a new constitution: a citizens’ group – without politicians, lawyers or university professors — who opened the discussion process to everybody and managed to approve by consensus a draft proposal.
In Iceland, many citizens are now organized in associations and have substantial proposals for a society where everyone can participate.
There is so much we need to learn about what Iceland done.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGwMIlpgR2A
Iceland & Switzerland are models well worth exploring.
The Swiss have been served well by direct democracy. A model Iceland is heading toward.
Looks like many Irish people have learned nothing from the last few years (Tom, faceless man etc)
If you ask why the emperor has no clothes, you’re branded “negative”.
Remember this? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfjGSfuSQpA
Part of the reason why we’re in this mess is because of the lack of genuine debate in Irish society. A proper democracy needs an effective opposition party, and a strong independent media for good reasons!
Enda the ostrich, again he has his head firmly planted in the sand or up his backside! Enda is a liar and a spineless traitor. Throw people on 12 month CE Schemes and the like to make the figures look like he has thousands of us back at work. This whole country is just propped up by lies,each department scurrying to justify themselves while at the same time completely failing with no consequences.
Why is immigration hardly ever mentioned when unemployment in Ireland is being discussed, and why are people always branded a racist when they mention it, even though it is a definite factor?
We hear about trade missions to China etc but never what investment they secure, state visits to boost tourism that never does, lies lies lies, denial denial denial. But sure the next government will promise to sort it out while telling us what we already know, that the present government have no clue.Swings and roundabouts, we get nowhere, we plod along propped up by the lies.
Great article Aaron says it all really
How about workfare?
But we can never have that while the Socialist run unions just turn round and say “Tax the rich”, which they’d continue to do until there were no rich people because they’ll have left or been taxed into poverty.
Read article in the hope that solutions were going to be suggested but instead was reminded of what I already know.
What was the point of the article? Reminding the Journal readers that we are in serious trouble and then not offering a solution or a few options seems pointless to me.
It’s easier to curse the darkness than change the lightbulb.
“I’ve suggested in the past…” http://www.thejournal.ie/readme/column-we-should-be-giving-jobless-people-the-money-we%E2%80%99re-wasting-360537-Feb2012/
If someone does not like your comment it is removed, just like the abuse in the institutions was hushed up and kept quiet for years.
Freedom of speech or nanny state?
Would like to see more solution lead articles from the journal, this re-hash of what we already know is getting us no where really. I know we are stuck in a rut until we have a government which can think outside the Eurobox, but as they exist on advice from creatively bankrupt advisers nothing will change here for a long time. It’s up to the journal to start leading the way with posting articles that offer direction, you possess one already . . .
Hi Martin – It’s interesting you should raise that point. A few months back I wrote an article outlining some economic issues, got the same comment, and we ran a several part series on ‘ways forward’ on topics ranging from education to local government and unemployment.
Glad to here that’s part of the plan . . . Slí Níos Fearr has a whole document to publish on the way forward at the end of the month from our specialist in enterprise and employment. Maybe the journal could focus on that too. Any chance of a reply to the email I sent . . . would be great to meet up. I’m in Dublin Tuesday, and we have a Sli Nios Fearr meeting in the Jury’s Parnell Street on the 11th 7.00pm
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