“WE NEED TO end 100 years of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael rule” is how we started conversations on the doorsteps during the election. Most people we spoke to agreed. But despite agreeing, many responded, “But it’s not going to happen.”
This was the fundamental problem facing the opposition. The basic outcome — a Fianna Fáil / Fine Gael coalition propped up by someone — seemed a foregone conclusion, and the left did not present a clear alternative.
Sinn Féin’s election slogan was “Vote to Change the Government” but instead of forming a ‘left front’ with others and committing to a Left Government they went it alone and kept the option of coalition with Fianna Fáil open even though this was unpopular with their own voters. This lack of ambition added to a feeling that change was not really possible. The left must learn from this — we cannot afford to make the same mistake again.
The impact of this lack of a clear alternative is seen in lowest ever turnout of just 59.7%, But it wasn’t just that turnout was down — if it was down evenly across the board it would have no impact on the election. It was down far more in working class communities than in relatively affluent areas. And it also seems to have fallen among young people — many of whom will have emigrated since 2020. This had a crucial impact — reducing Sinn Féin’s vote share and seat total, as well as contributing to a challenging election for People Before Profit — Solidarity and the broader socialist left.
This change in turnout differential was captured by where the exit poll got it wrong. In 2020, the exit poll under-estimated Sinn Féin by more than the margin of error because it could not have picked up that turnout from working class communities increased. In 2024, the opposite happened. Turnout in working class communities was down, and the exit poll overstated SF’s vote by more than the margin of error.
The absence of a clear route to kicking out Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael was not the only factor. Particularly for the socialist left, we succeed electorally when there are major social movements and people experience their own power to effect change. It gives people the confidence to demand much more, and it proves the relevance of having socialist representation in the Dáil. The classic example of this in recent years is the anti-water charges movement which saw politics shift left, including in 2016 with the forerunner of PBP-Solidarity getting 3.9% and returning 6 TDs. That was alongside the election of other left wing TDs like Joan Collins, Clare Daly and Thomas Pringle.
In the last few years, there was no such equivalent movement, with the partial and important exception of Palestinian solidarity. This unfortunately did not have the same deep impact across society. The many efforts to develop a major movement on housing were not successful. The Cost of Living Coalition which did put significant numbers on the streets in advance of the budget in 2022 won important concessions in the form of once-off payments and electricity credits. Ironically, they had the effect of reducing the momentum of the campaign and that mobilisation was not repeated.
This has been compounded by the emergence of anti-asylum seeker protests and sentiment and the associated emergence of the far-right as a political force. Although the openly far-right candidates polled poorly in the elections, they did have some success in sowing distrust in Sinn Féin and the radical left. This effect was reinforced by the response of Sinn Féin. Instead of standing up to their argumentation and pointing out that this was an attempt to divide working class people and direct anger at vulnerable people instead of the rich and powerful, they partially capitulated and positioned themselves to the right of the government on asylum seekers — calling for more cuts to payments and preparing to oppose centres for asylum seekers in working class communities.
This all undermined the possibility of the re-emergence of 2020 style momentum for change and a left government.
Nonetheless, things could still have been different. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are not popular. They just had their combined worst vote in electoral history. Their out-of-touch nature was encapsulated by Simon Harris’ rude engagement with Charlotte Fallon in Kanturk. The suffering of people — from the housing crisis, the health crisis and the crisis for children with additional needs — was a prevalent feature of the campaign. That this co-exists with Ireland’s status as one of the richest countries in the world is an indictment of FF and FG.
What was missing was a credible alternative. On the day before the election, Mary Lou McDonald called on Sinn Féin supporters to transfer to the Social Democrats, People Before Profit and independent candidates of the left. Gary Gannon responded for the Social Democrats, calling for their voters to transfer left too. This was very welcome — but it was too little, too late in reality.
Why did it not come much earlier — for example, when we wrote privately and publicly to these parties and others both before and after the local elections? What if, in advance of the election, Sinn Féin, the Social Democrats, People Before Profit and left independents had come together in a left front and transfer pact? If we had collectively ruled out coalition with FF or FG and instead offered the possibility of a left government based on radical policies and taking on the wealthy and corporate elites who profit from the social crises in our society.
Would we have won the election? It’s impossible to say. But I think you can confidently say it would have been a very different election campaign. The electorate would have been presented with a clear choice — continue with FF/FG or choose a left government. That would have driven up engagement, turnout and left transfers. The eventual result would have been much closer.
We can only stay in the realm of ‘what if’ for so long. Attention needs to turn to the question of ‘what now?’
The Social Democrats and Labour should not prop up Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. If they do, they will just be a new mudguard for their right-wing policies. They will deservedly face the same fate as the Green Party in the next election.
A strong left opposition is needed to what is going to be a right-wing FF/FG dominated government. That will be within the Dáil, but also crucially on the streets, in the communities and workplaces.
People Before Profit will continue to build ourselves as a principled eco-socialist party committed to people power as the way to change society. We will also continue to work with others in broad coalitions to mobilise people on housing, climate, disability justice, Palestine and many other issues.
We also want to work with others to form a left front to give people a clear governmental alternative to FF and FG rule at the next possible opportunity.
Paul Murphy is a People Before Profit TD for Dublin South West.
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