United Ireland and the lessons from Germany 'We should not make the same mistakes'

THE BERLIN WALL may have collapsed 35 years ago, symbolising the reunification of East and West Germany, but the divide between the people of Germany remains.

Inequality and political alienation have provided fertile ground for far-right party AfD (Alternative for Germany) who almost doubled their vote share in last week’s national elections. German reunification is not a blueprint for Ireland, it is a warning.

While the reunification of Germany was a political aspiration for decades, few could have anticipated the speed at which it would ultimately be realised. The collapse of the Berlin Wall and integration of East Germany into West Germany marked the beginning of the end for the Soviet Union but the political process that ensued did little to resolve historical inequalities between the two regions. The wealthier West simply subsumed the East into the German State leading to an economic crisis in East Germany that is still felt today. There was no new state created.

The result is that over three decades later, people in Germany remain deeply divided. Studies show that four in ten East Germans feel like second-class citizens, with grievances spanning a wide range of socio-political topics including wages, childcare, trust in political leaders and state institutions, and the importance of an East or West identity.

East Germany has higher rates of unemployment, fewer jobs affording working people disposable incomes, and higher poverty rates than West Germany.

While Germany may be a unified state, Germans are not a unified people; one need only look to the sea of blue spanning the election results map – representing AfD’s vote share – to appreciate how politically divided East and West Germany has become.

Conservative leader Friedrich Merz is expected to become the next chancellor, but anti-migration, anti-Islam party AfD is likely to remain in political isolation despite securing almost 21 per cent of the vote share to become the second largest party. Germany’s domestic Intelligence Agency classifies the party as a suspected extremist organisation seeking to undermine the constitutional order.

The party has subsequently welcomed two members back into its parliamentary group who had been excluded due to nazi-related remarks following its electoral gains, perhaps concluding that there is little need to conceal their extremist views when the public continued to back them, including 21 per cent of those aged 18-29.

AfD has found a firm foothold with those who feel furthest removed from the current political landscape.

Parallels with Ireland

The election results in Germany are a warning to United Irelanders; a land grab of the North will not unite the people of this island. To avoid the pitfalls Germany has illuminated, advocates for a United Ireland must make the case for a new, unified state.

Unity polling has consistently shown that a majority in the Republic of Ireland supports reunification; In recent polling from ARINS, 61 per cent of ROI respondents said achieving a United Ireland was important, while in Northern Ireland, a new LucidTalk poll for the Belfast Telegraph has shown increased backing for a United Ireland with support for remaining in the Union falling below 50 per cent – 41 per cent of Northern respondents would vote for a United Ireland if a referendum were held this week while 48 per cent would opt not to leave the UK, leaving ten per cent who remain unsure.

Those who oppose Irish Unity should not be so quick to take comfort from these figures. While, at present, there is no vision or plan for what unification might look like, people do know what being a part of the United Kingdom looks like, leaving little room for pro-Union supporters to make a positive case to remain. In contrast, United Irelanders benefit from a bare slate to build upon.

The challenge is that while support for reunification is clear among the public in Ireland, that support plummets with any suggestion that unity might come at a price, financial, or otherwise.

North-South research from ARINS in 2023 suggests Southern respondents are ill-prepared for changes in the event of unification, with nearly half of Southern respondents stating even the prospect of a new flag or anthem would make them less likely to support constitutional change.

‘That would be that’

Workshops on the topic revealed Southern participants’ surprise that establishing a United Ireland could involve changes to the current flag, anthem, or political institutions. “I thought they would just join us and that would be that”, one participant remarked.

A century of partition has not only divided this island but its people. This division will not be remedied by triumphalism or by simply absorbing the North. To unite the people of this Island, room for difference and a new sense of what it means to be Irish has to emerge alongside a detailed plan and vision for a New Ireland; a new unified state – not simply a continuation of the current one.

There are economic comparators with Germany that we would do well to avoid. As with East Germany, Northern Ireland has lower rates of disposable income and higher rates of poverty, while Ireland economically outperforms its Northern counterpart. Unification that fails to address economic inequality sows the seeds of political alienation, the results of which we are seeing borne out in Germany today.

A further lesson to heed is the speed of German reunification. We cannot control the timelines for a poll on Irish unity, that power rests with the British Secretary of State. There is a real risk that without proper planning, Ireland could be walking into its own form of Brexit – a referendum called with little detail and even less care. The Irish government has a constitutional obligation to work toward the unity of this island and a duty of care to the Irish people to ensure that when the question does arrive, it can be answered in a fair, transparent, and informed manner.

There is a mistaken belief that any changes to established norms in the event of unity would be concessions, but is a flag a more valuable symbolic tribute to the people of Ireland than Irish reunification? “You can’t eat a flag” as Hume would say.

Reunifying the people of this island and creating a new state is a once-in-a-century opportunity – where is our imagination? Our ambition to create something better for all of us? Germany should be a stark warning that unity is about more than borders.

Emma DeSouza is a writer and campaigner.