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LAST SUNDAY WAS Census Day in Northern Ireland. It is expected to show the current feeling of national identity in the NI population and could well confirm the reported demographic shift away from a unionist majority.
In the last Census (2011), 40% declared themselves to be British, 25% Irish and 21% Northern Irish. In the meantime, we have had Brexit and the rise of the pro-independence movement in Scotland. This 2021 Census could well be the last Census ever in NI as part of the UK.
If the UK union is really weakening, it is now more than probable that Border referendums on the reunification of the island of Ireland will take place within the next five to ten years.
Sinn Féin has called for referendums to be held much sooner. In the past, referendums have been lost in Ireland because the electorate was not informed nor fully convinced of the proposals being put to them.
The lesson learned is that a full and honest debate should take place before a referendum, not, as in the case of the UK’s Brexit Referendum, afterwards.
We should remember the Nice Referendum in 2001 and the Lisbon Referendum in 2008, which were both lost on the neutrality issue.
Defence Policy for a United Ireland needed
In any future referendums on Irish reunification the issue of what defence policy a united Ireland should adopt, needs to be considered. In fact, it should be addressed, in advance, so that voters, North and South, know the full picture before making such a momentous decision on reunification.
Two key questions need to be answered. First, would the people in the South support joining NATO as part of the price of reunification? Conversely, would the people of Northern Ireland accept leaving NATO and supporting military neutrality as part of reunification?
At present, the Northern Ireland taxpayer is paying seven times more on defence (2% of GDP) than his/her Southern counterpart (0.27% of GDP). The EU average is 1.2% while the NATO average is 1.3% of GDP.
There is a third option, to be raised and set aside, which is that both current jurisdictions retain their present defence policies after reunification. However, if unification means that the all-Ireland State will be sovereign and independent, it is hard to see how two different and contradictory defence policies could be in place on one island.
Foreign and defence policies go hand in hand. It might, in theory, work, if Ireland were to become a two-state confederation of separate and independent states, pursuing two separate foreign and defence policies.
Of course, a confederal solution should be an option to be examined, along with a unitary state and a federal state. Nevertheless, even in a confederal situation, it would be doubtful that two separate defence forces, would be what the Irish people might have in mind by reunification.
Back in Dec 1993, the UK agreed, in the Downing Street Declaration, that it had “no selfish strategic or economic interest” in remaining in NI.
This does not mean that the UK will accept a weakening in its national defence arising from Irish reunification. Such a weakening of its national defence, on its North Atlantic flank, could occur if NI became part of an undefended neutral Ireland and if Scotland were also to become independent.
Ireland, the weak link
Up to recently, the North Atlantic had faded in strategic importance since the end of the Cold War. However, Swedish defence analysts have concluded that Russian military exercises in the Baltic area, along the Arctic Circle and down the North-Eastern Atlantic coastline, including in Irish territorial waters, is about cutting the link between the US and Europe.
The outgoing Officer Commanding Naval Operations Command, Captain (NS) Brian Fitzgerald, has pointed out that a large number of transatlantic cables, linking the two continents, are at their most vulnerable in the shallow waters off the Irish Continental Shelf. Maybe some might think we can manage very well without the Internet. Others would disagree.
The problem for the UK and NATO is not Irish Neutrality, but the long-standing underfunding of our Defence Forces for its primary role of national defence.
Until recently, as a defence analyst, I had hoped that Irish-British mutual defence issues could be addressed ultimately within the context of EU Common Defence. With Brexit, this is no longer possible.
Alternatively, I had thought that an Irish Government would start to move towards bringing defence spending in line with other nations, which would mean that we would no longer be the weak link in Europe’s North Atlantic Defence. It seems I am wrong on both counts.
Until we sort out the defence issue, it is probably best to forget about Irish reunification.
Colonel Dorcha Lee (retd) is a former Defence Forces Provost Marshal and Director of Military Police. He is a former Irish Military Advisor in Brussels and a former military representative to the WEU and the EU.
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Cannot agree. Ireland’s neutrality should remain no matter what happens in a border poll. To suggest that any part of Ireland is strategically important to defenses is a thought that could only emanate from a military person or organizationally from A body such as NATO. To air this as an issue is just adding contention to an argument that might never happen. Our spend on defense may increase to support the EU effort but not as a cost to joining old style alliances. NATO is a last century solution to that eras history not a body for today.
@camio55: fair enough but the points mentioned need to be addressed as I believe it will be an issue. Whether you think NATO is pointless or not.
@camio55: the unfortunate thing about neutrality is that you must be able to defend that neutrality. The likes of the Swiss can. We can’t. We get the RAF to intercept and monitor the Russian spy planes that fly up and down right at the edge of our western airspace and have a deal with them should we find ourselves in a 9/11 situation. We drove their pilots up to the borders that crashed or landed here during the war. Kept their planes though. We are neutral on paper and paper is useless when there’s trouble.
@Paul Furey: we are not even neutral on part not should we be. Besides any country and that includes the poorest nations in world could just invade and take us over without any drama. We have a defence forces and not taking from the well trained folks we have but no air defence, no naval defence. If someone like Russia wanted to they would have us in a few days.
@Paul Furey:
@Tom Ripley: What do we haver that Russia needs and that the US or the rest of Europe would allow them to do it in the first place?
@George Vladisavljevic: airfields, deep water ports, easy access to maritime critical sealanes and air routes, proximity to the UK and Western Europe, a hostage population. It’s more our location they would want than anything else.
@Paul Furey: Allowing the RAF to ‘intercept’ Russian aircraft is itself a betrayal of our neutrality. We are neutral to Russia and the UK, though in fact we are a tool of the US and the other western arms dealers. The US has a base at Shannon in breach of our constitution so any alliance we enter would just further cement us in with the weapons trade.
If we had an arms industry and were making millions out of wars in other people’s countries, just as the US and the Real EU countries do, then it would make sense to send people to die and kill. But we don’t though maybe the Colonel Blimps and those reared on war comics would welcome that as well.
@Lee Roy.: They do not have the resources or the military might to do it. 150 million Russians on a continent of how many million with most in NATO and then you have the 350 million plus US and almost 40 million Canadians. They would not be able to sustain any force that was sent here. They hardly have a population to defend their own borders (with conventional weapons) without attempting to conquer the rest of Europe and Ireland. Destroy Europe and then what?
I personally think that they have many more natural resources that the west as well as others such as China, India and Japan might want to get their hands on.
@camio55: The only problem with all of this is that Ireland in not a neutral country, it is instead non aligned. There is no reference to neutrality in either the constitution or in statutes of law, it is one of those things that has been repeated so often that people assume it must be true.
All you have to do is look at the American use of Shannon to see the evidence for yourself, no truly neutral country would allow this.
@camio55: The article’s title is inaccurate. He barely mentioned NATO. He asked the question whether we could stomach NATO, or would the population in the North be ok Neutrality. He said discussion needs to be had there so as to fully inform the electorate in a unity referendum situation. So let’s not jump down his throat. His biggest point is the vulnerability of strategic infrastructure in Irish coastal waters and our inability to defend even pipelines or internet cables by only spending 0.27% on defence against an average of above 1.3%.
@David Stapleton: the point is, what the author was suggesting is that the brits will try to ditch the GFA and block a border poll if we dont join NATO.
a hundred years after partition, the threats are still there. the colonel should be ashamed of himself
@George Vladisavljevic: The whole bloody west coast.
We are not neutral, we’re just non-aligned.
@George Vladisavljevic: somewhere remote to exile all the undesirables they don’t want in the new Russian Europe? Gulag Archipelago Ireland?
Every day now, articles about Ireland reunification. Who is driving this agenda in the media?
@CmaGoo: yes it is curious, the agenda seems to be to sow doubt in the south. ie
the cost , joining the commonwealth, joining NATO etc.
@ChronicAnxiety: or perhaps rather than to sow doubt it is to air the questions so that solutions can be arrived at before a referendum, and that voters are fully informed when they cast their ballot. To not do so risks re-unification becoming as chaotic as Brexit was for the UK.
@D. Memery: In the 2011 NI census 48.4 identify being British 12.9% were Catholic and 29.4 Northern Irish 30.7% were Catholic its a big ask to get 77.8% of the people to give up their identities and their Capitals.
@CmaGoo: as to who is driving the agenda, well, you, and me. The media have realised these articles generate site clicks and comments, which boasts their revenues. If we didn’t react so vocally to it, it wouldn’t be on the agenda. Remember, if you don’t pay for the service you may find that you yourself are the service
@D. Memery: good point. Maybe I’m not cynical enough. :)
@CmaGoo: 100 years of ireland being separated is what’s driving this agenda. Reunification of ireland is absolutely inevitable at some stage.. and it will 100 % happen. As sure as night follows day.
@D. Memery: what referendum?
@Padraig O’Shea: ahh. It’s 100 year anniversary. Maybe that’s it. I hadn’t realised.
It’ll fizzle out so.
@CmaGoo: a lot of posters here seem to be.
@ChronicAnxiety: I have no objection to joining the commonwealth but the cost estimate at €10 billion is a big issue with me
@CmaGoo: yeah and what about people who are very sceptical a united Ireland and who may vote against it. I know people from the nationalist community who would prefer to be run from Westminster
@CmaGoo: a referendum would be required both North and south for reunification, both in terms of expressing the will of the electorate but also to vote in the changes required of the current constitution.
@D. Memery: I know what a referendum is. I was not aware that one had been or is due to be called as implied by your post.
@Richard Russell: thats only one estimation, other estimations show that unification will be a net contributor to the economy
@CmaGoo: its not media driven. its people driven. small groups and individuals and some cross community. up to now fg and ff tried to argue that it was sf driven and therefore should be ignored but that hasnt worked.
note the recent claire byrne show on unification where the taoiseach and taniste both said they favour dialogue and preparation before a border poll date, whereas only weeks before they were lecturing sf about how divisive a border poll discussion would be. they are now playing catch up with the people
@Richard Russell: the €10 billion figure is a load of b.locks. scaremongering, log onto the ‘lrelands future’ website and read the report about that annual subvention and where and how exactly its spent. most of it goes to london again. the report is well worth the read.
We are not neutral and never have been. Neutrality is about maintaining the ability to defend yourself.
The other three, non NATO countries in the EU have universal conscription and a budget that is 3-8 times bigger as a share of GDP.
I don’t know when the Irish public were hoodwinked into thinking we’re neutral, but we’re not. We’re just not arsed paying for our own defense.
Ireland’s foreign policy is to not pay for it and assume that NATO will help us if we need it. We even rely on the RAF for routine interception sorties.
It’s embarrassing, quite frankly.
I never realised we weren’t in NATO in some shape or form, whether directly, or indirectly via offering use of Shannon, etc … perhaps I was engaged in wishful thinking, hoping that we had a toe in the door as part of the EU, or our long-term US love-in… but as one of Europe’s weakest nations (and presumedly still depending entirely on the UK for defence in the event of anyone invading our airspace) it’s kinda scary to think we’re ok with going it alone…
@Marco Rolo: We are in Partnership for Peace, like Switzerland, Austria, Sweden, Finland and several other countries. I do not see us being at high risk of being invaded by Russia, and by becoming a member of NATO we would just become a more prioritised target in any future conflict between NATO and Russia.
@George Vladisavljevic: how do u mean.. we
@Padraig O’Shea: As in Ireland. What do you mean?
@Marco Rolo: We are the only country in western europe without an air force. Our air space is defended by the RAF our de facto air force. Until we are prepared to develop an air force of our own that is how it is going to be for the foreseeable future.Ireland is not neutral, a neutral country has to be able to defend its neutrality.
No, build social infrastructure instead of buying weapons
@Pablo Lord: well done on completely missing the point of the article. Did you even finish reading the headline?
Very interesting article. I hadn’t looked at the issue from that standpoint before.
@Patrick J. Keating: And thats only the beginning. There is a lot of knee jerk saluting going in at the thought of a united Ireland but until we see what this new Ireland looks like, in black & white, then we wo t know whether we want ut or not.
@Patrick J. Keating: Considering the fact that USA spends more on arms than the next 10 countries combined, 6 of them allies, then I dont suppise that lil old Ireland really matters that much.
The North Will be voting to get rid of the Withdrawal Agreement in 3 years after the EU stole the 2nd Jab and has created chaos for political reasons in the North. The EU will then force a border on the Island of Ireland. There will be no unified Ireland. The EU has put paid to that already.
@Steve: Delusional
@Steve: In the 2011 NI census 48.4 identified being British 12.9% were Catholic and 29.4 Northern Irish 30.7% were Catholic its a big ask to get 77.8% of the people to give up their identities and their Capitals without the rest of the things that have happened.
@Steve: it’s that simple you think
@Steve: Who was it mentioned overreactions or pointing fingers as you do both here. Not correct on either score either
@Steve: you seem to have been asleep for the last few years! I’ll enlighten you & your 20 supporters to reality.
Firstly, A significant majority in the 6 counties (of the 9 counties of Ulster) voted to reject brexit & to remain in the EU.
Secondly, when the Assembly votes for or against the Protocol, your Dinosaur party won’t have a veto, the result will be based on a simple majority of MLAs. The majority of the electorate who voted to reject brexit are proportionately represented in the Assembly (unlike England where MPs get elected by minorities), therefore the Dinosaurs are a minority & the protocol will be supported & retained by the majority.
Sorry if this piece of enlightenment & reality bursts your bubble!
@Steve: Stormont can vote to get rid of the protocol but it will have no legal standing. The agreement is between Brussels (27 nations) and Westminster, not between Stormont and Brussels.
Would be lovely united ireland, but if there is a pole on reunification i think people in the north, from both sides, will vote to stay in the UK. The nhs being one reason not to leave the cost of living here on the south being higher also. Simple little things like that will stop it happening
@Sue OB: And I here in the Republic will vote to keep them there too. I couldn’t fathom the fallout from taking on that basket case of a place.
The only invader Ireland needs to worry about is the British & it’s proxies in the Military wing of the Dinosaur Unionist party.
For that reason I would support the creation of a European Army.
Eventually, the EU will require a single foreign and defence policy and a single armed force to defend and promote it. NATO will be more or less defunct at that stage. All EU member states will have to contribute a percentage of their GDP even if they do not provide actual troops, but it’s hard to be part of a club and not be prepared to defend it.
How about we work to have NATO abolished instead of joining an organisation that is supported by countries that spend obscene amounts of money on arms whilst their citizens can’t afford basic things like food and healthcare? The US spends approximately the same amount on arms as the rest of the world combined – over $700 Billion in 2019.
Good article. I greatly respect our army and would like to see it supported more. I don’t like the idea of spending more money but it seems like we’ll have to OR Putin might see it as his next Crimea.
@john mounsey:. NATO is far more aggressive than Putin. He was correct to whip back Crimea after a Western backed coup.
There will be a whole discussion on this in April, at a Conference for An Alternative United Ireland
https://www.eventbrite.ie/e/conference-for-an-alternative-united-ireland-tickets-145834405633
NATO and its cousins, Partnership for “Peace” etc are a threat to the existence of humanity.
Under no circumstances whatsoever should joining NATO be even considered, in fact we need to get out of this PFP business quickly
@Micheál: NATO is the marketing division of the US arms industry.
Neutrality = Cowardice
@Virgil: BS, it means not getting dragged into illegal wars like Iraq and historically the only country Ireland needed defending from was England.
@Virgil: Irish Defense Forces have proved their bravery time and time again on peace missions , maybe look up the rangers in Africa or the sacrifices in the Lebanon standing in the middle of Israeli artillery attacks and ordinary civilians in schools. The Lebanese people love the Irish to this day for their humanity, integrity and bravery.
@Da Dell: Very good troops and well led and respected.
@Da Dell: Oh your right,, I forgot Ireland made it’s peace with Hitler so that it didn’t need to get involved.
@Da Dell: Nonsense. This idea that Ireland is loved globally is BS. I travelled all over the Middle East and most people I met knew noting of Ireland.
@Hatchjaw: *nothing
@Virgil: Id iot. We dont need to get involved in US neo-colonialism. If you want to sho ot brown people to show how brave you are, join the british army.
Interesting article but there’s a lot more to be considered in the event of a United Ireland than defence policy.
1. Will we retain Stormont and form a Federal Republic with 2 parliaments or will we have smaller devolved parliaments in each of the 4 provinces.
2. Will we keep our PRSTV voting system ( I hope so).
3. Will we remove obligatory Irish Language exams in schools.
4. Will the Irish President be the head of state or will royalty have any role?
5. We’ll need a new constitution, who will write it and how?
6. We’ll possibly need a new flag how will this be agreed upon?
7. Will we get a new national anthem or will we have to sing that awful Ireland’s call from now on?
8. Will we try and match the NHS with the service it provides?
9. Will we force the nordies to use the metric system?
and lots more…
@Maurice Glennon:
1. Ireland will be a unitary state, otherwise you’d be creating a West Lothian situation where NI has a say in Ireland but Ireland has no say in NI.
2. Yes. It already exists in NI for Stormont elections.
3. Probably.
4. Yes. There’s no role for the British Royal family. We will still be a republic.
5. No, because the DUP/churches will want to revisit abortion and same sex marriage. We’re done with that.
6. Probably. I like the hard on a navy background but the President uses that flag.
7. Possibly, but it won’t be Ireland’s call.
8. The NHS is broken. Ireland has better outcomes than the NHS.
9. Yes.
@Teresa Ryan: Harp on a navy background
I fear you are correct…
Can’t think that NATO is going to lose a moments sleep about this.
@Cez Miname: Correct. So long as it can promote and sponsor enough war, it will lose no sleep. It has no interest in us.
Careful now…
have your say