A HUGELY IMPORTANT event in the race to be the 47th President of the United States, the hotly anticipated debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, is upon us. It is happening in Philadelphia this Tuesday at 9 PM eastern in the US (2 AM on Wednesday morning Irish time) and will last for 90 minutes. Following some wrangling, microphones will only be “live” for the candidate asked to speak.
Prior to offering unsolicited counsel to the two persons who would be president and will be on the stage, let’s briefly evaluate where things are at. Harris’s replacing Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee has changed the contours altogether. A contest that was shaping up to be a potentially easy triumph for Trump is now neck and neck.
The wind is clearly favouring Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz. They have seized narrow polling leads in several battleground states. Progressives are dually energised: all-in for Harris/Walz and dead against the 45th POTUS and his deputy, US Senator JD Vance.
On the flip side, Trump’s acolytes retort that, even in the wake of his slump and his foe’s surge, the fight remains a toss-up. He is faring better at this juncture than he was either in 2016 or 2020. As people start really tuning in post-Labour Day, his advantages on key issues and in the Electoral College will swiftly pay decisive dividends.
That is the backdrop ahead of a clash that may engender extraordinary, consequential moments. Here are four recommendations for each aspirant – Trump, then Harris.
Donald, first, you need to appear sane for the entire hour and a half. A few strategists shout “Let Trump be Trump”; a good chunk of the base love off-script ramblings and derogatory remarks. But invoking Hannibal Lecter, bragging about your looks and disparaging Kamala Harris won’t convert the floating voters who will be watching and hold your fate in their hands.
Among the Democrats’ strongest arguments is that the US can’t afford the chaotic circus of another Trump presidency, untethered to any political constraints and surrounded by inexperienced toadies. You actually can be yourself – the businessman who is blunt and uses the language of the “average Joe” – without being unhinged. Don’t forget that, although the base is sizeable, the disciples can’t get you over the line on their own.
Second is inflation and third is immigration. Bang these drums incessantly. The sky-high cost of nearly everything emerges from the opinion surveys as the biggest problem for Americans. The quandary of how to stop the enormous numbers crossing the southern border illegally is close behind it. And there is tremendous anger at the Biden/Harris administration on both. Hammer away at your opponent on these fronts. She cannot deny where she has lived since 2021. And when it feels repetitive, do it again.
Fourth, go after Kamala Harris as a San Francisco leftist whose stances on cultural and economic subjects are very much out of step with the residents of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, et al. Don’t be hyperbolic. Cite the facts that the non-partisan GovTrack ranked her as one of the most liberal members of the US Senate in her tenure and – despite tough competition in the avowed socialist, Vermont’s Bernie Sanders, and the Harvard Law School professor, Massachusetts’ Elizabeth Warren – as the most liberal in 2019. This will resonate with moderates who loathe Donald Trump, yet equally, reject what they perceive as the reckless, verging on un-American ideology of the left.
Kamala, there are plenty in the commentariat who contend that you can avoid policy. They have a point to an extent. But you have to define yourself to the voters. Detailing some specific policies is vital to this aim. You should mention these items prominently on your agenda: supplying grants to putative homebuyers; simultaneously cutting taxes for middle income earners and raising taxes on the wealthy and corporations; and banning price gouging on groceries.
Regardless of the studied views of economists as to their merits and the poison labels right-wingers might throw around, they are populist and popular ideas. They appeal inherently to millions of struggling individuals and families. Many of them are so hurting and desperate that they went for Trump, once or twice. Advocating for classic “bread and butter” proposals of this sort typically benefits Democrats.
Next, make “WE CAN’T GO BACK!” your mantra throughout. There certainly has been a coarsening of civic discourse and a decline in respect for the institutions we are taught to cherish. That said, a majority of Americans are appalled by or at least wary of the prospect that a convicted felon of dubious moral character could be the commander-in-chief.
You must connect to the innate sense of patriotism that still dwells in hearts and minds and convince the persuadable that, as with movies, the sequel will be a lot worse than the original. Trump II is a massive risk that’s not worth taking.
Third, how you respond when Trump gets nasty is critical. Michelle Obama was not wrong to urge her adherents to “go high” as they “go low.” But her exhortation was slightly incomplete and exceedingly polite. Before you, in a dignified fashion, refuse to engage with the slurs he may lob in your direction and move the discussion onward, a fittingly stinging rebuke would be: “I know what kind of human being you are, Donald. Thanks for reminding the American people.”
Finally, preserving access to abortion is an effective rallying cry, not solely for Democrats. Stressing what the reversal of Roe v Wade has meant to date and could precipitate in the future is appropriately central in your messaging. Remember, however, who the target audience is on Tuesday. It is not primarily the pro-choice activists solidly in your corner already.
It is those citizens who neither endorse the procedure nor describe abortion as a reproductive right, yet reluctantly believe it has to be available to women in difficult situations. In showcasing the extremist position of conservatives, don’t leave yourself exposed to the charge of extremism. You need to reach Americans whose perspective on abortion is greyish, not black and white.
The eyes of the world, including blurry Irish ones striving to stay open in the wee hours, will soon be on Donald Trump and Kamala Harris as they face off in Philadelphia. Whether or not any elements of the foregoing advice feature in their preparations and performances, it is sure to be an enthralling encounter.
Larry Donnelly is a Boston lawyer, a Law Lecturer at the University of Galway and a political columnist with TheJournal.ie.
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