CAST YOUR MIND back.
It was only eight days ago the UK was hearing from its fourth Chancellor in the space of a year. It was Jeremy Hunt’s first full working day in the job and by mid-morning he signalled his intent to roll back on most of Kwasi Kwarteng’s policies. The message was clear – Truss-enomics was well and truly over.
Doesn’t it feel like a lifetime ago?
Little did we know then, that by only Thursday the UK would be in search of a new Prime
Minister.
Written across the faces of many MPs in parliament, in the wake of Liz Truss’s resignation speech, was bewilderment – did that really happen? Did Truss really resign as leader of the Conservative Party? Is there to be another leadership race? Will 2022 really be the year of at least four chancellors and three prime ministers?
Earlier that day, as breakfast rolled into mid-morning, tweets of malcontent evolved into MPs filtering into central lobby expressing their unhappiness on the national airwaves.
Central Lobby – a cavernous circular atrium linking the great Westminster Hall, House of Commons and House of Lords – is where all the national broadcasters have their cameras. If an MP wants to be seen or heard, they loiter in Central Lobby. It is never long before a journalist saddles up for a quiet word or before the MP is ushered over to a camera.
One former cabinet member whisked past me in the lobby, keen not to be spotted. They wouldn’t go on camera, but whispered “she’s gone”.
All eyes then turned to Downing Street as the ceremonial podium was wheeled out. Just after 1.30pm Truss announced her intention to resign as leader of the Conservative Party
and Prime Minister of the UK.
With 44 days in office – ten of those the official mourning period of Queen Elizabeth II – Liz Truss will go down in history as being the Prime Minister with the shortest tenure.
Writing on the wall
The night before the resignation, party discipline had appeared to break down over a vote on fracking. Rumours swirled that the Tory chief whip and deputy whip – who are in charge of coralling their colleagues to cast their votes – had quit just as the vote was called, leading to immense confusion on the floor of the House of Commons.
There were allegations from Labour’s Chris Bryant that he saw a degree of ‘manhandling’ as Conservative MPs passed through the lobby.
In Westminster, MPs must physically walk through the ‘Aye’ or ‘No’ lobby; they don’t have the comfort of the ‘Tá’, ‘Níl’ and ‘Staon’ buttons on the seats in Leinster House. The Conservatives rejected the allegation that anyone was pushed around in the lobby, and by the end of the night it emerged the Chief and Deputy Chief whip remained in post.
The confusion in the Commons came hot on the heels of the Home Secretary being fired earlier on Wednesday over an apparent breach of the ministerial code. Former leadership hopeful Suella Braverman was sacked by Liz Truss on Wednesday afternoon and by teatime Truss had former Transport Secretary Grant Shapps (and Rishi Sunak backer) installed in the Home Office.
Guest list
Truss’s departure, the subsequent Tory leadership contest and the appointment of Sunak to the top job all have the effect of pushing other important issues down the agenda.
Case in point, the situation in Northern Ireland – because somewhere in the middle of all of last Wednesday’s push-alert generating events, a DUP delegation appeared at Downing Street for a meeting. They were asked to wait by the police security gates as their names weren’t on a Downing Steet guest list. One can only imagine that in the heat of a rather tumultuous day officials in Number 10 were busy with Conservative party matters and perhaps forgot to update the security gates with the names of those who were to attend a meeting.
A little frustrated by the wait, one of the DUP delegation lamented that at least former Northern Ireland Secretary Julian Smith would send his car to collect him. It was only a few minutes wait, and they entered Number 10 shortly after 4pm.
In any other normal news cycle, there would be a lot more more interest in the fact that the UK government was hosting Ireland’s Deputy Prime Minister, Leo Varadkar, to talk about solutions to the Northern Ireland protocol in the morning, and then receiving a DUP delegation in the afternoon.
That morning, Varadkar had been met by UK Deputy PM Therese Coffey. Later, he met with Foreign Secretary James Cleverly and Labour Party leader Sir Keir Starmer.
The reasons for the visit were clear. Unless an executive is formed in Stormont by within the next three days, there will be another election for the Northern Ireland Assembly. It will be the second NI Assembly election this year.
The positions of the major parties in the assembly are well rehearsed. The DUP refuse to form an executive until issues on the NI Protocol are resolved to their satisfaction.
On the 7 October Chris Heaton-Harris and NI Office Minister Steve Baker hosted Ireland’s Foreign Affairs Minister Simon Coveney and Justice Minister Helen McEntee in the opulent Lancaster House just a short stretch from Buckingham Palace. The mood that day at the British-Irish Intergovernmental Conference (BIIC) was generous but focused.
Personal relationships between the delegations appear to be on the up, but when it comes to brass tacks, Chris Heaton-Harris reiterated that he would call an election by this Friday’s deadline if there is no functioning executive.
On the NI Protocol, he said the controversial Protocol Bill would become “a redundant piece of legislation” if a deal was reached with the EU.
Simon Coveney, for his part, said he would prefer to avoid an election in Northern Ireland as he believes it would be divisive, before adding he recognised the reality of the law.
Technical talks between the EU and the UK got underway in early October, and as well as a clear bonhomie at the meeting between the Irish and UK ministers, it was just about possible to imagine a scenario with Brussels offering something while talks continue - giving just about enough cover for the Secretary of State Chris Heaton-Harris to delay elections. It is not without precedent. Elections were delayed in previous stalemates.
It was all rather possible to imagine that right up until last Thursday afternoon when the Prime Minister resigned. Now, even if something came from the EU that was enough for Chris Heaton-Harris (and the DUP) cover to delay to the elections, it is hard to see how legislation could be rushed through Westminster this week amid the installation of yet another prime minister.
Meet the new boss
It was yesterday afternoon, just before 2pm, when leadership hopeful Penny Mordaunt tweeted her withdrawal from the contest.
The only two people still in the race by the morning were Mordaunt – the leader of the Commons – and Sunak, the former chancellor.
Boris Johnson, who was forced out as PM back in July, considered a return to Downing Street, but bowed out late on Sunday night.
As Sir Graham Brady strode into Committee Room 14 he had a very simple message– only one candidate submitted the required nomination form, and therefore Rishi Sunak was the leader of the Conservative Party.
After being welcomed by MPs at Conservative Party Headquarters, Rishi Sunak delivered his first televised speech as party leader. He paid tribute to Liz Truss and promised to unite both the country and the party. The entire speech lasted less than two minutes and with no opportunity for journalists to ask some questions, there wasn’t much of a chance for any probing.
Liz Truss is to have an audience with King Charles III shortly, informing him of her intention to resign as leader of the Conservatives and PM, and King Charles will then receive Rishi Sunak and invite the former Chancellor to form a government.
With Rishi Sunak free to appoint a refreshed cabinet, there is no guarantee Chris Heaton-Harris will still be the NI Secretary of State by the end of the week, the very deadline the office holder must call an election.
Heaton-Harris backed Boris Johnson to retake the role of Prime Minister, while his NIO Minister Steve Baker backed Sunak.
In the space of seven days the Conservative Party ousted its Chancellor, Home Secretary and Prime Minister.
With schools in Northern Ireland on notice to transform into polling stations in December, instability in Westminster, and no white smoke from Brussels, it’s not difficult to imagine a winter election – Stormont … possibly even Westminster.
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