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IRISH MEDIA AND commentators have been understandably fixated on the likely economic impacts on Ireland arising from both Brexit and President-elect Trump’s win at the polls.
Aside from the economic analysis, there is a great deal of speculation in the media as to the likely political implications of Trump’s elevation to the office of President of the United States.
There are fears that the President may appoint a cabinet that will herald a shift towards very conservative political positions on domestic issues such as race relations, immigration, equality, gun control and the status of the LGBT community in the US.
Whatever the political outcomes of Trump’s presidency – they remain to be seen – the cultural shift within the United States has been seismic. In registering some sort of protest vote at the polls, the US electorate have delivered what Enda Kenny might describe as a ‘whallop’ to establishment politicians and their apparatchiks.
Austerity has always triggered populism
The pro-austerity political elite in both the US and the EU are witnessing an unanticipated outcome across America and Europe in the form of a resurgence in nationalism, xenophobia, and the rise of populist and right-wing politicians.
This is nothing new. History teaches us that when austerity and hardship are imposed upon the masses, conflict always ensues.
The political establishment in Washington and across the EU, against which US and European voters have rebelled, wittingly or unwittingly, created broadly similar conditions to those which allowed the rise of figures such as Mussolini and Hitler in the last century.
In Ireland, the two leading broadsheet newspapers have published editorials for over a decade now that have consistently endorsed austerity measures. The same newspapers are now expressing amazement and dismay at the advent of Trump’s presidency – an inevitable and organic consequence of austerity. It would be funny if it were not so serious.
Misogyny, racism and homophobia have been normalised
Aside from the potential political implications of Trump’s win, the cultural implications are writ large. In a bewilderingly rapid development, there has been a normalisation in US public discourse of misogyny, racism and homophobia.
As is the case in parts of Europe, some US citizens – who only weeks ago, would have kept their sexist, racist and homophobic views to themselves – now feel emboldened to articulate, and perhaps act upon, those views.
This is a potentially catastrophic development for US society. The appointment of Steve Bannon to Trump’s cabinet does not reassure this writer in relation to these worrisome developments.
Aside from the domestic implications of Trump’s evolving administration, his appointments to key positions in his foreign, defence and security portfolio speak volumes about his intentions internationally.
Trump’s mostly male cabinet
Samantha Power has been replaced as Ambassador to the United Nations by former Republican Governor of South Carolina, Nikki Haley. Haley’s foreign policy positions are not clear as yet, but she is resolutely conservative on a range of issues from immigration to LGBT rights.
She is the first and only woman to be nominated by Trump to his emerging cabinet. So far, the rest are men – and most of them are retired generals and army officers.
National Security Advisor is quite possibly Islamophobic
Trump’s National Security Advisor is retired General Michael Flynn. Flynn is a retired general with a background in special operations, intelligence gathering and electronic surveillance. He is very well educated and in addition to being a qualified engineer, he holds an MBA and two separate MA degrees from the US Naval War college. Like Haley, Flynn is socially conservative and pro mass surveillance.
He is one of a number of Trump’s appointees who also believes that Islam is more than a religion and sees the Muslim population – not just radicalised Islamists – as potentially problematic.
Flynn’s counterpart as designated head of the CIA is another former army officer, Mike Pompeo. Pompeo is also highly educated and is a qualified engineer and lawyer. He is socially conservative, pro-life, and a prominent member of the National Rifle Association.
Pompeo, like Flynn, is an advocate of mass surveillance – both overt and covert – and stated in 2013 that US Muslims who did not vocally condemn Islamist atrocities, were ‘potentially complicit’ in terrorist crimes.
Pompeo has also stated that National Security Agency whistleblower Anthony Snowden should face the full rigour of US law and ‘due process’ which would likely result in a ‘death sentence’ for treason.
‘Mad Dog’ Mattis could be Trump’s most progressive choice
As for Defence Secretary, Donald Trump is rumoured to favour General James ‘Mad Dog’ Mattis, a retired US Marine Corps four star general. Mattis is a colourful figure and is referred to as the ‘Warrior Monk’ whose military call-sign was ‘Chaos’.
Unlike Trump’s other appointees, however, Mattis – despite his colourful reputation and nicknames – is considered a more progressive choice for public office. Mattis is not particularly well educated for a member of the general staff, but he is believed to be opposed to an isolationist stance for the US.
Much to the relief perhaps of other NATO member states – who fear Putin’s interference in Central Europe and the Baltic states – Mattis is said to favour America’s proactive ‘engagement’ in world affairs, both politically and with boots on the ground.
Mattis is widely quoted and cited for his colourful remarks to his subordinates, including the avuncular advice to, “Be polite, be professional, but have a plan to kill everybody you meet.”
He also allegedly gave the following advice to his Iraqi counterparts during the US occupation of Iraq, “I come in peace. I didn’t bring artillery. But I’m pleading with you, with tears in my eyes: If you fuck with me, I’ll kill you all.”
If Mattis is nominated to the post of Secretary of Defence, many will welcome his straight-talking, no nonsense style. Such an appointment might also signal a hardline hawkish and interventionist foreign policy posture, using hard power to neutralise emerging or perceived threats such as North Korea, China or an emerging nuclear Iran.
Petraeus – A more cerebral, sophisticated choice?
Another alternative to Mattis is retired four star general David Petraeus. Petraeus, who has a PhD in International Relations from Princeton, is considered more sophisticated and cerebral than General ‘Mad Dog’ Mattis. Petraeus masterminded the US troop ‘Surges’ in Iraq and Afghanistan which had mixed outcomes.
Petraeus also re-wrote, with General Mattis the US military’s Field Manual 3-24 on Counterinsurgency – widely believed to be one of the most fundamental shifts in US military doctrine since Vietnam.
Encouragingly perhaps, Petraeus is a Hibernophile who has a strong interest in the history of the Troubles in Ireland and the subsequent peace agreement and peace process.
Whoever Trump appoints as his Defence Secretary, his emerging line up of nominees for public office suggest that the United States, Europe and the world should strap themselves in and get ready for a roller coaster ride of foreign, defence and security imperatives.
Dr Tom Clonan is a former Captain in the Irish armed forces. He is a security analyst and academic, lecturing in the School of Media in DIT. You can follow him on Twitter here.
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Solving the climate crisis and emissions is really about making the majority reduce their consumption through using less or paying more taxes so the elite can carry on as normal. If the govt or the world as a whole were serious then we would each have a carbon allowance, but how would that work, far easier to tax the lower income people on fuel for their cars,houses etc than ask the wealthy to stop flying private jets, driving cars that do 20mpg and leave a carbon footprint that’s massive compared to ordinary people.
If the ordinary car is such a threat, why are people being asked to go electric when to do so would either bankrupt them or mean they simply couldn’t afford a car. Its simply not going to happen unless somebody is making a fortune out of it.
@Rex Tilson: absolutely. A survey in the U.K. found that the top 15% of flyers took 70% of flights in that year (2014). Their Carbon costs are even higher because the top 15% fly more long haul and private jets. 50% of people didn’t fly that year but they did fly every second or third year.
Increasing carbon taxes would have little effect in any one year as it would penalise the people taking only 30% of the flights. Most of top 15% are rich enough to continue flying.
A voucher allowing one short haul return per person would massively reduce those flights while not affecting the bottom 85% of flyers who take one or none every year. Maybe corporations can have a few more vouchers. Otherwise – zoom.
At the very least we should ban private jets – are we all in this together or not.
There are chasms between Government words/plans and their actual actions, from health, education, infrastructure, etc decades of incompetence and cronyism.
The climate change advisory council?? Money for old rope for sure isn’t it. Anyway we the people soldier on. Chin up folks.
What’s telling for me, is the amount of rubish that comes outta the journal and all the other outlets singing from the same script. Money most be worth it, won’t last long.
Blah blah blah is right…..Go talk to the Chinese & American’s first
@Christopher Byrne: yep, and then we’ll be fed the same BS that the smallest countries must lead by example first.
according to the ESB data centres use 1/3 of the grids capacity. we bow to america all the time,,,banking crises, housing crises, homelessness, i think they global mind is changing and corporates with larger finances than countries are eventually gonna get reigned in. ofc we are gonna be the last to do it as usual. gombeen politics.
@Mick Heery: I understand that DC’s use a lot, but, do you have a link for the above claim of 1/3rd usage please?
The fact that Ireland has yet to switch to E10 petrol is very telling as to the seriousness of our climate strategy. Literally the lowest hanging fruit, it would remove the emissions equivalent of 100,000 cars off the road practically at the stroke of a pen. If we can’t do something that simple, I’m not sure we’re up to the more serious tasks..
Completely shutting down the import of UK car market totally contradicts govs emission fairytales since local consumer can not get a cleaner – newer car that falls under low co2 regulations from abroad (Since UK is the ONLY AND CLOSEST PLACE where wheel ks right-handed) leaving Irish motorists to use the old diesel engined cars since the car prices are sky high on the island.
The first thing that needs to happen is that people’s attitude needs to change so that they genuinely care and are motivated to make changes to support these goals..
I honestly believe that all the talk in this article will not make people care and threats will only make people do the opposite.
Governments here have a very poor track record on bringing people together as one Nation.
@Roger Bond: people’s attitudes will only change when they see politicians stop squandering billions on every single development they touch.
Start producing results. Not just throwing more taxes at people with no end result visible.
Personally I am more concerned about affording to put fuel in my car, getting appointments at hospital and paying my mortgage.
Regarding climate change I’m inclined to listen to someone who has seen it first hand & that’s David Attenborough, he has said due to climate change & it causing methane gas immissions there’s going to be at least 4/5 viruses per annum!
@Colette Kearns: Sir David frederick attenborough collette. Agree
“Climate Experts” … well. Looking through the history of mankind, the “Climate Experts” helped the society to deal with changes to the climate. They didn’t have computers or smartphones, but an open mind and common sense.
But now that we are in the days of “peoplekind”, our experts are more like the experts of the Aztecs. When the climate changed back in their days, their answer was to kill thousands in order to please their gods, so they’d stop the climate change.
I don’t want to hear another squeak about Planning for more big wind and solar, without first hearing all about the Planning for how they intend filling in the big intermittency gaps. Massive electrolysis plants here or there. Mega grid all over the place.
In reality though all this carbon account game, is just that, a silly game. The only way we will solve this problem is by fighting it as a Warming World War. We need the military industrial combines to stop making weapons and instead make thousands of new generation SMRs. and let the Australians make the fuel for them, instead of exporting vast quantities of coal.
More methane is already boiling out of the permafrost, than from a billion more cows. What the hell are we on about. If we could solve the problem by virtue signalling, it would be solved long ago.
@Nicholas Grubb: I agree…last night on Eirgrids dashboard there was nearly 4000MW of wind available but the grid could only absorb 2000MW so nearly 2000MW of wind power had to be turned off all night but the wind turbine owners still get paid for the curtailment.
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