THE NEWLY-FORMED REGIONAL Independent group has pivoted towards power and is now on course to become the third pillar of the next government, having pulled ahead of other TDs vying to form part of the coalition.
The momentum of the group comes as it has emerged that it is now a certainty that a rotating Taoiseach model will be repeated.
However, the breakdown of exactly when Simon Harris will take over from Micheál Martin is yet to be decided. There is speculation that Harris might take the reins for the final 1.5 years or 2 years of the government’s term, meaning he would hold the office for less than half of the five-year period with Martin holding it for the majority of the period.
Talks will ratchet up a notch from next week when the negotiating team for the Regional Independents will be decided before formal government formation talks kick off with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.
Seán Canney, Marian Harkin and Michael Lowry are expected to be appointed as the Regional Group’s negotiators.
There are still concerns about whether a government propped up by Independents will prove stable enough for the larger parties.
A senior Fianna Fáil source said a priority for the new government is that it lasts the full five years, and Micheál Martin wants to ensure everyone is locked in for that time period.
Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Labour had been involved in a delicate dance over the last fortnight, but Ivana Bacik has all but stepped her party away from any further government formation talks.
It is “unlikely” that Labour will go into government with Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, party leader Ivana Bacik said yesterday.
After a meeting of Labour’s parliamentary party, Bacik said she wants a state construction company and Labour has been really clear about that.
“But equally, Micheal Martin has been very clear about his scepticism about that and these are the real policy differences that we have,” she said.
“I wouldn’t understate the policy gulf between the Labour Party and Fine Gael and Fianna Fail,” Louth TD and Labour parliamentary party chair Ged Nash said.
While the Social Democrats say they are remaining on the pitch, with Labour now appearing to moving off it, it is unlikely they would be interested in proceeding further.
While the left parties have failed to pull together as a negotiating bloc, despite almost doubling their seats, it is the Regional Independent that have proved the most pragmatic and serious about getting into power.
The momentum shifted towards the Independents some time ago, with the Labour and the Social Democrats stating privately behind the scenes that they would not be interested in going into government.
To the frustration of the public, the manoeuvres between the left-leaning parties and FF-FG continued.
There is another group of Independents, made up of Independent Ireland TDs Michael Collins, Michael Fitzmaurice, Richard O’Donoghue, and Ken O’Flynn, as well as Independents Paul Gogarty, Michael Healy-Rae, and Danny Healy-Rae.
However, while there have been some meetings about government formation, it is understood this group won’t have a role to play with Martin and Harris looking to the regional group first and foremost.
The Regional Independent group is made up of nine TDs: Sean Canney; Marian Harkin; Barry Heneghan; Noel Grealish; Michael Lowry; Kevin (Boxer) Moran; Verona Murphy; Gillian Toole; and Carol Nolan.
It is understood that apart from the more local asks on their wish lists, housing is one of the group’s priorities.
What will it take to get them to support the government? It is understood the group is seeking one ministry position and a couple of junior minister roles.
Wexford TD Verona Murphy has been nominated by the group for the role of Ceann Comhairle.
All eyes will be on Fianna Fáil next week when its parliamentary party meets on Monday as to whether she will get the party’s backing.
It is understood there are mixed views within the party with plenty of backbenchers unhappy with the idea, while others are willing to allow it to happen if it means Independents are left without a senior ministry.
There are a number of Fianna Fáil TDs interested in the highly paid job, however, such as the current Ceann Comhairle Seán Ó Fhearghaíl and John McGuinness.
There is speculation that if Murphy gets the support from Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael for the role of chairperson of the Dáil, then there could be movement on whether the group will get a ministry.
However, with the Ceann Comhairle vote being a secret ballot, there is no way to be sure where her support might land.
Harris said on Wednesday that it appeared to him that independents were “very serious” about being a part of government.
Independents The Journal have spoken to take issue with chatter that a government underpinned with support from Independents would be unstable.
Speaking to RTÉ in Armagh this week, the Tánaiste said it was his priority to make sure that the government goes full term.
“That means the sufficiency of support behind the government that would enable it to go full term, and that’s a factor in that consideration,” Martin said.
In relation to the rotating Taoiseach model, while both leaders state it is not a priority right now for talks, it is very much on their minds.
“I believe there will be a rotating Taoiseach and I think that’s important. It’s not important in relation to individuals, it’s important in reflecting the mandates that the parties received during the general election,” Martin told RTÉ on Thursday.
The Journal understands that both sides have now agreed that a rotation will happen but how the size of the parties will have an impact on the length of the rotation and when exactly the handover should happen is yet to be decided.
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