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Sam Boal

'The outcome will be the same': Nationwide move to Level 3 will not stop spread of Covid-19, expert warns

Professor Sam McConkey believes case numbers will continue to rise if the Government rejects NPHET’s advice.

AN INFECTIOUS DISEASE expert has warned that Covid-19 will continue to spread through society if the entire country is moved to Level 3 restrictions.

Professor Sam McConkey, from the RCSI University of Medicine and Health Sciences, said Covid-19 case numbers will still rise – albeit more slowly – if the Government rejects official health advice to move the country to Level 5 restrictions instead.

It is understood a nationwide move to Level 3 will be announced by the Government this evening, following a Cabinet meeting this afternoon.

That meeting came after a recommendation from the National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET) last night that the entire country should move to Level 5, the highest level of Covid-19 restrictions.

Dublin and Donegal are currently the only counties on Level 3, but case numbers have gradually risen in recent weeks, with more than 600 new cases of the virus reported on Saturday. 

Reacting to reports this afternoon that the Government will move to nationwide Level 3 restrictions, McConkey told a town hall meeting of the Independent Scientific Advisory Group that the outcome would be the same as most counties remaining at Level 2.

“Unfortunately, I think that will not bring the R number to less than one, that we’ll still have similar numbers of cases with just a slower rate of increase,” he said.

“And after a number of weeks, we’ll end up escalating the level [of restrictions]. I think the outcome will be the same, but just slower.”

McConkey suggested that Ireland could reduce rates of Covid-19 to almost no new cases by late December or January if strict restrictions were put in place instead.

He pointed to measures which shut down the country in March as an example of this already occurring, but acknowledged that doing so again would have to be happen on an all-island basis, with limited foreign travel an the ability for mass testing.

McConkey also claimed that county-by-county approaches were not practical, because there was no capacity to make decisions at individual county levels.

Under the Government’s Living with Covid plan, unveiled last month, counties can be placed on different levels of restrictions at different times.

“I think we do need national guidance on this. I think once we get down to low levels, where counties have no cases for two or four weeks, then certainly they could open up earlier,” McConkey said.

“That means not to people like me going in and out from Dublin, but that domestic sports and businesses within counties could open up to the people there.”

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    Mute Marie Prendergast
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    Oct 5th 2020, 5:19 PM

    There is one way to solve this, introduce significant fines for non compliance. Nothing else e seems to work

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    Mute Adam Conroy
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    Oct 5th 2020, 5:24 PM

    @Marie Prendergast: you can’t fine because it’s not in law and it’s very hard to make it law because of constitutional protections.

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    Mute Vanessa
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    Oct 5th 2020, 5:28 PM

    @Adam Conroy: They had 7 months to figure something out or come up with a new excuse

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    Mute John Peeters
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    Oct 5th 2020, 6:16 PM

    @Adam Conroy: change the law then

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    Mute gary mullen
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    Oct 5th 2020, 6:37 PM

    @John Peeters: change the government!

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    Mute Michael MC Evoy
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    Oct 5th 2020, 6:58 PM

    @Adam Conroy: very simple. Change the constitution.

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    Mute Ian Breathnach
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    Oct 5th 2020, 5:15 PM

    At this stage everyone seems to be an ‘expert’ with a different opinion to the last one.

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    Mute Lad
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    Oct 5th 2020, 5:25 PM

    @Ian Breathnach: to be fair he is literally endorsing NPHETs proposal, so you couldn’t be more wrong.

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    Mute ruairi
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    Oct 5th 2020, 5:30 PM

    @Ian Breathnach: https://www.rcsi.com/people/profile/smcconkey
    He seems like an expert to me…

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    Mute Paul Lanigan
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    Oct 5th 2020, 5:55 PM

    @ruairi: but he get everything relating to covid wrong. Does that sound like an expert?

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    Mute ruairi
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    Oct 5th 2020, 6:20 PM

    @Paul Lanigan: He didn’t get everything wrong. He said a few weeks ago we were at the outset of a second wave, which we are now. He said in August testing and tracing wouldn’t be enough, that distancing would be needed and that “we will end up having further county and local area based restrictions, maybe on private parties and gatherings in private areas like the home.” He predicted in January Ireland could have at least 20,000 cases of covid. His Journal article from march seems fairly on the ball, looking at it with hindsight. He hasn’t gotten it all correct by any means, but show me the expert who has. https://www.thejournal.ie/readme/covid-19-sam-mcconkey-5036559-Mar2020/

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    Mute Ian Breathnach
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    Oct 5th 2020, 7:35 PM

    @Lad: well ‘Lad’ the point I’m making that every other day a ” Leading Expert” is saying something that contradicts the previous “Leading Expert”

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    Mute Jason Ebbs
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    Oct 5th 2020, 5:16 PM

    It makes no sense at all for counties that are on level two, which is most of the country to jump to level 5. Level 5 should be the doomsday scenario. Because if we jump to level 5 to quick and things go pear shaped, where do we go from there ?

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    Mute Alan Foy
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    Oct 5th 2020, 5:20 PM

    @Jason Ebbs: Bonus level 6

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    Mute Lotta Rossler
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    Oct 5th 2020, 5:22 PM

    @Jason Ebbs: if people adhere to level 5 restrictions, things can’t go “pear-shaped”. It’ll reduce transmission same as it did the first time around, in March..

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    Mute Lad
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    Oct 5th 2020, 5:29 PM

    @Jason Ebbs: surely level 5 should be to prevent the doomsday scenario, you don’t wait until hospitals are over flowing to go to level 5. And we already know the hospitals will be overflowing because it happens every year anyway.

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    Mute Jason Ebbs
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    Oct 5th 2020, 5:34 PM

    @Lotta Rossler: if people had adhered to level 2 it would reduce transmission, we are now going into level 3 because people didn’t.

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    Mute John R
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    Oct 5th 2020, 5:42 PM

    @Lad: And when we emerge from level 5 the virus will again surge. So what do we do then, go back to level 5? We need to be very realistic. I simply don’t believe Ireland can sustain another savage lockdown economically or socially, followed by another lockdown. We are already borrowing billions. We can’t sustain this.

    The strategy appears to be to attempt to eliminate the virus. I’m not aware of any instance where a quarantine has been able to achieve this result. Once we come out of such a quarantine the virus will again surge.

    Nor do I think that following the advice of of NPHET takes into account the devastating impact on non-Covid patients or the non-diagnosis of other illnesses. The mortality rate elsewhere arising from such a lockdown must be taken into account. It hasn’t been.

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    Mute Angela O'Riordan
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    Oct 5th 2020, 5:51 PM

    @Lad: agree I hope we don’t regret this in the coming months. This may be our only opportunity to go to level 5. We may have to go to complete lockdown if the numbers keep growing like they are. The numbers in hospitals and ICU will grow impacting on vital cardiac, cancer and other services and lead to more deaths. Keep in mind the healthcare workers are contracting the virus, leading to difficulties in managing patients in respiratory and ICUs. These are highly trained professionals who cannot be replaced easily. Lastly people are still requiring ICU management following surgery, accidents and medical deterioration, what will happen when healthcare professionals have to say we have no place available. Believe me their work is difficult enough without having to make such decisions

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    Mute Jason Ebbs
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    Oct 5th 2020, 5:51 PM

    @Lad: I’m not saying don’t use level 5, I’m saying go through each level and use the restrictions step by step as they are intended to be used. So if things aren’t working out on 2, then move to 3, then onto 4 and then onto 5. Give each restriction level a chance to try and work instead of jumping from 2 straight to 5.

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    Mute Daniel Andrews
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    Oct 5th 2020, 5:54 PM

    @Lotta Rossler: it would also cause serious mental stress and financial burden on ALOT of families.

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    Mute Michael Patrick
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    Oct 5th 2020, 6:02 PM

    @Lotta Rossler: and then what ?

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    Mute Joe O'Hara
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    Oct 5th 2020, 6:16 PM

    @Jason Ebbs: you are going to tell us when Doomsday arrives are you? The idea of restrictions is to avoid Doomsday situation. When we get to Doomsday it is already too late for level 5.

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    Mute Gerard Smith
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    Oct 5th 2020, 6:34 PM

    @Jason Ebbs: of course it makes sense. At current rates our ICU beds will be full in 3 to 4 weeks what are you going to do then with new cases requiring ICU? A lottery system? Stop thinking about this geographically and start thinking about it in terms of support services. The amount of ICU beds we have applies to the whole country. That’s the reasoning behind the advice. Time and time again experts are saying it and time and time again the public arent listening. NPHET are having to make recommendations like this because the ONLY effective action they have available to them is isolating to stop a spread. The government have failed with a proper testing system which would give more choice to NPHET yet everybday people are on here blaming the scientists for making recommendations. Putting a level 5 in place STOPS the doomsday scenario. I mean are you really serious – your logic is “well if we do it where do we go from there?”. Todays numbers are already out of date we have to plan based on where we will be in 2 to 4 weeks. Its going to go pear shaped unless we go to level 5 or unless people start to cop on and socially distance properly. 6 people around me in the supermarket yesterday with no masks on. Stupidity.

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    Mute Gerard Smith
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    Oct 5th 2020, 6:35 PM

    @Jason Ebbs: the numbers are already past Level 3 and 4 Jason based on our available hospital capacities.

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    Mute Dave Hammond
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    Oct 5th 2020, 7:28 PM

    @Jason Ebbs: ‘people’ is bit general there , you mean ‘some people’ – there are plenty of people wearing masks washing hands keeping distance and its only not working because theres some people who have given up and will just live their lives regardless ( esp younger people but by no means not just them ) – the ;authorities’ have done a particularly bad job at bringing the people with them – especially that shitshow from NPHET yesterday – which was a pretty irresponsible way to do things – they left everyone on a knife edge by announcing 72 after they said thursday that they didnt think we needed to move counties up from 2 to 3 – this is the WORST possibly way to communicate such a serious message – how come at the start we had Leo being informed by Nphet and making announcements to the country about what needed to be done but yesterday they met and leaked their decisions – they need to be help to account for such irresponsible and unprofessional conduct for an emergency team – im sick of hearing excuses like they are only looking after health and only making recomendations – thats their bloody job and they are doing it in very very shabby way – there was a whole country anxiety ridden thinking about another lock down and the financial ramifications – i am glad the Govt finally started to govern and pushed back but they need to take them to task and make it clear in no uncertain terms that they need to do a much. much better job bringing the people along with them – because that was frankly unacceptable conduct for a body with such serious responsibility – and how come a lockdown which only ‘buys time’ was squandered last time when they have made no serious improvements to ICU / capacity / testing and tracing – the list is getting pretty long for things our well paid health administrators are suppose to be doing – but then again we have a trolley ‘crisis’ that happens year in and year out and the same muppets can’t get to grip with it so we probably shouldn’t be surprised

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    Mute Dave Hammond
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    Oct 5th 2020, 7:34 PM

    @John R: 100% correct – they keep saying now NPHET are only going to give advice but they need to be doing much better job at that advice – last Thursday they said no evidence that we need to move any counties up from their level 2 and 72 hours later they are saying everything needs to be level 5 – thats incompetence – even the communication of the decisions leaked on a Sunday night – the whole country ( well except those hermatically sealed and protected from ant financial impact of course ) was left anxious and worried about what will happen – absolutely disgraceful carry on from a body that needs to bring public with them – need to be held to account – they are very well paid and even if their defenders are saying ‘well they might be right ‘ – completely missing the point – if they are right they are going the complete wrong way of getting the public to buy in by behaving in such a shambolic manner – the vicar of dibley committee meetings are more professional ffs.

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    Mute Dave Hammond
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    Oct 5th 2020, 7:49 PM

    @Gerard Smith: icu beds will not be full in 3-4 weeks and the health professionals are the ones who have been given additional hundreds of millions of taxpayer money to address capacity issues – and they have failed – all this finger wagging at the public and lockdown threats are pathetic way to manage this crisis – take a look at how other sensible countries are doing – they seem ot be able to manage with increased cases and no threats to capacity or surges in deaths – you are way off in your fear mongering – go take a look at each Eu country and explain why Ireland is so different – we are the slowest to rebuild our society and now they are all nervous about the winter – but thats not the publics responsibility – thats the responsibility of the people in charge – lockdowns only buy time they do not eradicate the virus – your logic is flawwed – every other country is talking about balancing the economic realities with restrictions – every other eu country have introduced 10pm closing for restaurants etc – every other country – especially the smart ones have spent 6 months improving testing tracing and chasing the outbreaks – we have failed to improve capacity , wasted hundreds of millions renting private capacity – THAT WE DIDNT NEED – and. hers you again saying in 3 weeks time we will be over run – you are just completely wrong with your doomsday fear mongering crap and have no practical solutions – finally the govt started to govern today and we are hearing some balance – common sense will tell you the country won’t be able to afford to run a health and welfare system if it keeps turning to the lockdown lovers BS strategy and decimating smes and livelihoods. Lockdowns only buy you time – if you cant use that time wisely to make proper plans then you cannot expect people to go along with them. These ‘professionals’ have presided over a trolley crisis for 20 years when our old sick and vulnerable do not get the care they deserve because of poor administration and health management – what makes you think they have the solution this year when they simply throw good money after bad into a leaky bucket without reforming the system. Interesting to see the lockdown lovers are almost always the ones whop are unaffected financially by these decisions – perhaps in the spirit of all in this together then all workers should be put on 3 day week with 40% pay cuts during lockdown – watch how that focuses the minds of how much lockdown we should have – 300 000 govt workers on full pay hermetically sealed from any impact is not ALL IN THIS TOGETHER – and the people are sick of it.

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    Mute SB
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    Oct 5th 2020, 5:19 PM

    it would be exactly the same outcome
    went to full lock down yet again for 2 months while businesses close, unemployment rises, mental health and suicide cases rise sharply, then just when we get back to single figures open up society again and watch as cases slowly but surely continue to rise again until it gets to where we are now or worse, and then what repeat and repeat over and over again well into 2021.

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    Mute Paul Cunningham
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    Oct 5th 2020, 5:33 PM

    @SB: should have locked down completely IMO and just wipe it out instead of dragging this open close system of halfway restrictions currently in place. Fine anyone not adhering to the rules. The only way people will learn is hitting them in the pocket or throwing them into the station.

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    Mute SB
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    Oct 5th 2020, 5:41 PM

    @Paul Cunningham: but that doesn’t work Paul as we’ve seen already we might get back to single figures, but as soon as we open up again it’ll just go back to where we are now, like a revolving door, we need to open up society and learn to live with the virus as it’s not going anywhere.

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    Mute John R
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    Oct 5th 2020, 5:46 PM

    @Paul Cunningham: It is impossible to wipe out a virus. Impossible. If Ireland had followed your suggestion then post such a quarantine a single case of transmission from NI or from someone coming from overseas would lead us back to square 1. Elimination is a delusional pipe dream. The only consequence of following your suggestion would be national and individual bankruptcy. We need a more nuanced strategy. Sweden is looking more attractive by the day and I never thought I’d hear myself say that. If we continue like this we will destroy our economy for a decade and that will lead to far more deaths.

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    Mute Paul Cunningham
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    Oct 5th 2020, 6:45 PM

    @John R: Impossible is nothing. I have been in Asia, and seen the virus eradicated from the face of the Earth, and yet you can’t seem to think beyond this Ireland bubble, that we just cannot do it and should just take it? I would much rather fight to clear this virus than accept defeat, killing all our elderly and continually closing and opening the shops, bars, clubs, restaurants, events and more. Health and the economy are intertwined with a virus like this and it requires willpower as a society. But if the Irish are not willing to do this, then we should punish them for not following the rules. Too much rulebreaking is happening to succeed at the moment, and this needs to stop.

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    Mute Sk19
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    Oct 5th 2020, 9:13 PM

    @John R: australia did it , and did it by closing internal borders , same as our NI / ROI border

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    Mute Adam Conroy
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    Oct 5th 2020, 5:28 PM

    Is McConkey not the lad who’s predictions have been wrong from the very beginning?

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    Mute GO GREEN
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    Oct 5th 2020, 6:02 PM

    @Adam Conroy: Because his advice was followed, many thousands did not die and that is why the predictions did not happen.

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    Mute Niall K
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    Oct 5th 2020, 5:15 PM

    Common sense prevails!

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    Mute Jerry Jeff Gomgat
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    Oct 5th 2020, 5:25 PM

    San McConkey – expert me hoop

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    Mute Munster1
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    Oct 5th 2020, 5:23 PM

    The main problem people are ignoring the rules because there is no punishment. If there were strong fines then people would think twice. There is even an upside to people breaking the rules in that the government would get income.

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    Mute Paul Lanigan
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    Oct 5th 2020, 5:56 PM

    @Munster1: Don’t you people who love to propose fines ever read the previous comments. Several telling you why you can’t fine people for not following a guideline. It’s really not that hard

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    Mute GO GREEN
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    Oct 5th 2020, 5:37 PM

    This is a big mistake – only a matter of time before hospitals are overwhelmed and people start to die – and then they will impose level 5 when it will be too late for many people and the people now cheering and saying well done, will be saying why did you not go to level 5 when the medical experts told you so.

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    Mute mark o donovan
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    Oct 5th 2020, 6:08 PM

    @GO GREEN: the grimp reaper, live your lives

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    Mute GO GREEN
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    Oct 5th 2020, 6:10 PM

    @mark o donovan: No the Grim Reaper is the virus and its job is not to let people live, but die.

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    Mute LangerDan
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    Oct 5th 2020, 5:25 PM

    Any negative outcomes from today’s decision will rest firmly on the Trí-Seach. To ignore medical advice is brave. But they own the outcome now.

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    Mute CoraG
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    Oct 5th 2020, 5:26 PM

    Just fine the group and house party groups -students will have a problem getting work visas abroad if they have been fined or are taken to court

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    Mute Aidan O' Neill
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    Oct 5th 2020, 5:30 PM

    @CoraG: Government should send the students back home and move classes online. Tell them they’ll refund their rent until Decmeber since they were let pay it on the basis they’ll be going to college .

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    Mute Alan Foy
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    Oct 5th 2020, 6:23 PM

    @CoraG: good point

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    Mute mmz
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    Oct 5th 2020, 10:42 PM

    @CoraG: Colleges have a problem if the new student accommodation blocks are not occupied as either they or the international investors funding the new accommodation are going to be out of pocket. If its the international investors who have been deprived of their expected profits by government action then expect a demand that the taxpayer pick up the tab or the government is taken to one of the WTO arbitration courts for a secret hearing and unappealable decision – its probably signed up for all this anyway. What price the safety of students when international money is involved?

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    Mute NotMyIreland
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    Oct 5th 2020, 5:35 PM

    Heard a Dublin GP say the same. That in two weeks we will be moving to level 4 as the level 3 restrictions only stabilised the rise in cases there two weeks in. Lets hope the government don’t live to regret this decision.

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    Mute Daragh Hackett
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    Oct 5th 2020, 5:42 PM

    The whole thing about level 3 nationwide is wrong, there’s so many places with low levels

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    Mute gary mullen
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    Oct 5th 2020, 5:45 PM

    One ” Expert” says one thing, another “Expert” says the opposite and the government say nothing. This is starting to look like an episode of ‘The Big Bang Theory’ just waiting for Sheldon to go on the news and say BAZINGA pmsl

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    Mute Olivia Smith
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    Oct 5th 2020, 5:57 PM

    @gary mullen: Doctors differ, patients die unfortunately. It’s up to each and every person on this island to cop on and follow the guidelines. It’s not that hard.

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    Mute Shakka1244
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    Oct 5th 2020, 6:10 PM

    @gary mullen: you wet yourself laughing. Oh dear.

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    Mute gary mullen
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    Oct 5th 2020, 6:31 PM

    @Olivia Smith: covid or not people will die, that’s the circle of life.each and every person on this Island north and south are Not following the guidelines, some are but not all and it doesn’t matter what expert says what , it won’t change people’s attitudes. Weather it’s phases, stages, colours or shapes it won’t make a difference. This week it’s the Gaa supporters getting the blame, last week the students, next week it will be some one else being blamed

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    Mute gary mullen
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    Oct 5th 2020, 6:32 PM

    @Shakka1244: well I find Sheldon very funny and he’d probably do a better job in government then those up there at the moment.

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    Mute jay bernard
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    Oct 5th 2020, 5:47 PM

    I think its unfair that the counties who are doing all the right things and have low numbers, ie Sligo, Mayo, Leitrim must go to Level 3, where as the others who continue to report high new cases, Dublin and Donegal remain at leve 3. Double standards. The government seem to be afraid of upsetting the dubs

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    Mute Paul Lanigan
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    Oct 5th 2020, 5:58 PM

    No deaths today…..AGAIN. 518 case though. People are going to look really silly two weeks from now when the death rate is still at this level….

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    Mute Tony Kennedy
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    Oct 5th 2020, 5:45 PM

    Let’s all remember 5th October as the day our sham government ignored the advice of hard working Health experts . SHAME !

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    Mute CMH
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    Oct 5th 2020, 5:57 PM

    @Tony Kennedy: was thinking the same. Oct 5th is the day our government has ignored their health experts who, despite the opinion of those whose evidence comes from Facebook, have carried this country though the crisis much better than a lot of our global peers (including most of our European neighbours). With the current govt, the health ministry looks like it will take a back seat to other interests. And sadly I think this means we will be in for a very tough winter.

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    Mute Paul Lanigan
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    Oct 5th 2020, 5:59 PM

    @Tony Kennedy: Or another day without Covid deaths

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    Mute Michael MC Evoy
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    Oct 5th 2020, 6:57 PM

    It will make a difference if people who don’t obey restriction rules are fined. People who won’t wear a face covering should be banned from public transport and shops. No excuses.

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    Mute Liz O'Toole McEvoy
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    Oct 5th 2020, 7:09 PM

    The same expert that said in the Irish Mirror today that there could be additional levels of 6, 7, 8, 9, 10…….scaremongering at it’s very worst, shameful

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    Mute Davis Payne
    Favourite Davis Payne
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    Oct 5th 2020, 7:02 PM

    The only way level 5 will work is because all the non essential shops are closed and we have nowhere to go.
    People just aren’t bothered to curtail their movements so anything short of reducing the places people can go will not work.

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    Mute Bigbaby
    Favourite Bigbaby
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    Oct 5th 2020, 9:57 PM

    Level 5 will cause the economy to completely shut down, causing poverty and poverty brings struggle and death. If we can keep it at level 3 for as long as possible, and hopefully get the numbers down, that is the way to go imo..

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    Mute Bigbaby
    Favourite Bigbaby
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    Oct 5th 2020, 9:56 PM

    Level 5 will cause the economy to completely shut down, causing poverty and poverty brings struggle and death. If we can keep it at level 3 for as long as possible, and hopefully get the numbers down, that is the way to go imo.

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    Mute Carol Allcock
    Favourite Carol Allcock
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    Oct 5th 2020, 7:20 PM

    According to the INMO, there were 240 patients on trolleys waiting admission to hospital this morning. We’ll soon be raffling beds

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