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Explainer: Are we going to see an independent Scotland?

Could the United Kingdom really cease to be and what would this mean for Ireland?

Updated 10 September, 9am

Team Scotland sets off for Delhi Scotland makes the biggest decision in a generation on 18 September. PA Archive / Press Association Images PA Archive / Press Association Images / Press Association Images

EIGHT DAYS FROM today Scotland will be asked to decide whether or not to end its 307-year union with England.

Whatever happens, the result will have a profound effect on the future of the United Kingdom and its ripples are likely to be felt throughout Europe, arguably nowhere stronger than here in Ireland.

But what exactly is it at stake? How likely is it that the world will get a new sovereign state and what will this mean? Take 10 minutes to get filled in.

What are Scots being asked and why?

Quite apart from what is usually the case in Irish referendums, the question being asked on 18 September is in plain language: Should Scotland be an independent country?

It’s being driven by the Scottish National Party (SNP), the largest party in the Scottish Parliament, which has always placed independence as its primary goal. The SNP achieved an overall majority in the 2011 elections and First Minister Alex Salmond set about putting a referendum timetable in place.

Scottish independence referendum Alex Salmond pushing for an 'Aye'. PA Wire / Press Association Images PA Wire / Press Association Images / Press Association Images

The holding of a referendum needed the approval of both the Scottish Parliament in Holyrood and the UK Parliament in Westminster. A period of negotiations ensued in which Salmond wanted the referendum in 2014 and British Prime Minister David Cameron wanted it later.

Salmond also wanted two or three questions on the ballot paper outlining alternative options for greater powers. Cameron was against this. Eventually a compromise was agreed whereby the referendum would be held in 2014 and would feature just one Yes/No question.

The SNP are campaigning for a Yes vote while the Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats are going for a No.

Sky News / YouTube

What happens in the case of a Yes vote?

Scotland has voted before on strengthening its powers, in 1979 and 1997. In the former of those votes, a slim win for the Yes side was not enough to make devolution a reality because a minimum margin was required.

This is not the case here. A narrow victory for either side (and it looks like it will be narrow) will be decisive to set Scotland on the path to singledom or a continuation of its journey with England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Last November, Salmond outlined Yes Scotland’s ‘white paper’ on independence which tackled 650 questions on the practicalities of going it alone.

It proposed that Scotland would maintain a currency union with the Bank of England (BoE), keep the monarchy, have its own defence force and ultimately join the EU as a sovereign nation.

It also, of course, would take control of its own tax affairs, health service and social welfare which are still ultimately controlled by Westminster. London’s control of finances has always been a bugbear for many Scots, especially now. David Cameron remains their Prime Minister even though only one Conservative MP was elected north of the border.

But how Salmond’s plans are to become a reality have pretty much dominated the campaign.

The Better Together campaign, led by former UK Chancellor Alastair Darling, has repeatedly pointed to the BoE’s insistence that Scotland would not be able to share sterling and link its currency to the pound. They have accused Salmond of ‘having no plan b’ in the event of this arrangement being deemed impossible.

Alistair Davidson / YouTube

Salmond says that the BoE essentially simply can’t stop Scotland linking its currency to the pound, adding that they would not abandon Scotland because it would also mean absolving Scotland of a portion of the UK’s national debt.

The issue has even led to former European commissioner Olli Rehn saying that the ‘sterlingisation’ model proposed ‘would not be compatible with EU membership’.

It wasn’t the first time that Scotland’s future membership of the EU was questioned. Commission President Manuel Barrosso hinted that some of Europe’s leaders would seek to block Scotland from joining because it would encourage other restive regions, Catalonia for example, to push for their independence too.

In reality though, it is highly unlikely that the EU would be able to ignore the democratic will of the Scottish people if they had chosen independence and wanted to join the common market.

Another issue that has become more central in the final few weeks of debate is the future of the National Health Service (NHS) in Scotland. Labour says that the NHS is being broken up by the Tory Government in an attempt to privatise it and the SNP has seized on these concerns.

Channel 4 carried out ‘FactCheck’ on whether Scotland’s NHS is under threat from Westminster.

And what about the Queen? Well, she’s head of state in many sovereign countries like Australia and Canada so it’s no surprise that Scotland would keep her on.

It is a little more complicated though because of the monarchical line and how it runs through Scotland. It’s argued that a constitutional change would also be required in the UK as well as Scotland to smooth things over.

Aides of the Queen have been quoted as saying she is worried about the break up of the union but she has yet to make any public comment on the matter. That could change soon though.

If Scotland does vote Yes, many fear what is already being compared to a potentially bitter divorce fro the UK. Issues like Scotland’s North Sea oil revenues, nuclear weapon sites and the national debt would all likely dominate the debate surrounding separation.

How likely are we to see a Yes vote? 

The short answer: It’s getting more and more likely but it’s still not the expected result.

The British establishment was given a major wake-up call on Saturday night when the results of a YouGov/Sunday Times poll gave a lead to the Yes side for the first time.

The poll gave a 2% lead to the Yes side, less than three weeks since the same pollsters put the No side 22% ahead. Questions have been asked about the accuracy of the poll because the severity of the swing was much greater compared to other companies.

Notwithstanding that, all companies have shown strong momentum for Yes Scotland and the latest TNS poll published on Tuesday showed the difference at  just 1% in favour of No. Excluding ‘don’t knows’ it was a dead heat.

How does this translate in real terms? Well, William Hill bookmakers puts a No vote at 2/5 (€10 wins €14) while a Yes vote is at 7/4 (€10 wins €27.50), so clearly the bookies are favouring a No.

To put that in perspective though, Manchester City are 11/4 (€10 wins €37.50) to win the current English Premier League. So, in essence, an independent Scotland is more likely than the current Premier League champions retaining their title.

But where will it be won and lost between now and Thursday week? As with any election or referendum, turnout will be key and this could be where the No side has a crucial advantage.

Nearly all residents of Scotland aged older than 16 are entitled to vote in next week’s referendum. Polling information from YouGov demonstrates that the Yes side is ahead in every age group except those aged over 60.

Significantly, while the Yes side only has a small edge in every decade up to 60-year-olds, those aged above that intend to vote massively (63%-29%) in favour of a No.

It may be a cliché, but its also close to a truism that elderly people vote in greater numbers and this demographic is the most staunchly opposed to independence.

Again though, it’s not all cut and dry. The TNS poll put the number of undecideds at 23%, suggesting that 600,000 Scots had yet to make up their minds.

Against expectations, polls have suggested that undecideds are more likely to swing to Yes by a ratio of 2:1. How this translates to people in the privacy of the ballot box is anybody’s guess though.

Undecided women are also understood to be breaking to the Yes side by an even greater degree, the infamous #PatronisingBTlady ad not helping.

BetterTogetherUK / YouTube

What would an independent Scotland mean for Ireland?

Firstly, it’s worth pointing out that Irish political parties have been observing a deathly silence on the issue. None of the four major parties are expressing a view, insisting that it’s a matter for the people of Scotland.

Fair enough you might say, but the United States hasn’t been shy about weighing in with President Obama even coming out strongly in favour of the union. Most observers say that this is both out of loyalty to the ‘special relationship’ with the UK and also because of the strategic importance of Scotland to NATO.

The closest Irish politicians have come to getting involved in the debate was when TDs held a video conference with their Scottish counterparts last February telling them how we’ve got on in the EU.

An independent Scotland would, in effect, mean the break up of what is currently the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. It is bound to have a destabilising effect on Northern Ireland which is already experiencing one of its most trying periods institutionally since the Good Friday Agreement.

Sinn Féin is committed to holding a border poll to test the waters of a united Ireland and a Scottish vote for independence would undoubtedly give this an extra impetus.

What’s more, the unionist community has fractured in post-agreement Northern Ireland and many unionists share a bond with their ancestral kin across the North Channel. An independent Scotland would surely cause them to question their place within the UK and it could lead to the greater dominance of London, hurting an already shaky Stormont Executive.

Rugby Union - RBS 6 Nations Championship 2011 - Scotland v Ireland - Murrayfield Old friends, new circumstances. PA Archive / Press Association Images PA Archive / Press Association Images / Press Association Images

Southern Ireland wouldn’t be immune from the tremors of an independent Scotland though and Enda Kenny’s TBSCITWIWTDB mantra could be under threat.

A central plank of Salmond’s plan is to make Scotland an inviting place for inward investment and a cut in corporation tax to 17% is part of it. Although still higher than Ireland’s 12.5% rate, our low-tax English-speaking niche would have a challenger.

Scotland leaving the UK would also make a UK exit from the EU more likely. There’s an ‘in-out’ referendum on that planned for 2017 and Scottish independence would certainly be a boon to the eurosceptics in the Conservative Party and, of course, in Ukip.

One more thing. If the Scots do vote Yes, the SNP have said that they want their ‘Independence Day’ to be on 24 March 2016, a historically significant day for Scotland.

That day is also Easter Thursday, right in the middle of when Ireland will be holding its Easter Rising commemorations.

For now, all that is in the realm of the hypothetical though. It’s now a decision for the people and it remains to be seen if they listen to the words of their unofficial national anthem, ‘Flower of Scotland’.

 But we can still rise now, And be the nation again.
First published on 9 September 

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139 Comments
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    Mute Adrian De Cleir
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    Sep 9th 2014, 9:36 PM

    Good article thanks

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    Mute Dirk Diggler
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    Sep 9th 2014, 10:20 PM

    Cork is going to be watching the outcome of this very closely.

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    Mute George Grey
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    Sep 9th 2014, 11:03 PM

    Yes, this is a good article and I can’t help thinking that the arguments are beginning to sound like one side of a broken marriage. To those that say “Oh you’ll see, you can’t get on without me!” I say “you are deluded. Surely we’ll be happier apart!”

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    Mute Catherine Mill
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    Sep 10th 2014, 9:40 AM

    George. Scotland did not enter into any marriage willingly with the British monarchy. Like Eire , they were conquered in battle. Totally different energy signature.

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    Doc
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    Mute Doc
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    Sep 10th 2014, 9:50 AM

    Hopefully and the rest of the country will be fully behind them

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    Mute Doc
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    Sep 10th 2014, 9:52 AM

    That was to Diggler

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    Mute Anthony Ryan
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    Sep 10th 2014, 10:36 AM

    That’s wrong Catherine, just google King James I & VI to find out how the union of England and Scotland occurred.

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    Mute Mr Phil Officer
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    Sep 10th 2014, 12:26 PM

    They were diplo-annexed Catherine, England sabotaged their first attempt at a colony and as a result the prosperous Scotland at the time went bankrupt and signed the union. They had no oil in them days though and their wealth these days is distributed around the whole of the UK(mostly London). They would be better off independent and could look to solve their own problems like having one of the lowest life expectancies in the western world. Also for us having a healthy competition for investment will attract investors to do business over here.

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    Mute Jack Dexter
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    Sep 9th 2014, 9:53 PM

    Scotland found oil and ended up poorer

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    Mute Gavan OBrien
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    Sep 10th 2014, 8:32 AM

    Lots of places find oil and end up worse, it’s pretty common.

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    Mute fergalreid
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    Sep 10th 2014, 9:14 AM

    More common than not, in fact.

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    Mute Watcher-on-the-Wall
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    Sep 11th 2014, 12:07 AM

    We found gas, and now it’s not ours anymore – but the pipes are apparently being laid on our soil….

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    Mute Irish Names
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    Sep 9th 2014, 9:24 PM

    Let Scotland long a Provence be a nation once again.

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    Mute Scipio
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    Sep 9th 2014, 9:39 PM

    Salmond wants Scotland to keep the pound sterling even though it will be controlled by the Bank of England. He wants to retain the Queen as head of state. He wants to ditch Trident, but then has the hypocrisy to say that he wants Scotland to apply for Nato membership , thereby availing of the Nato nulear deterrent.
    All this Braveheart talk is ridiculous. Salmond is looking for half-assed independence while retaining some of the most obvious symbols of the Union such as Sterling and the Queen. Salmond is a charlatan snake oil salesman.

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    Mute Danny Rigg
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    Sep 9th 2014, 9:57 PM

    Uganda, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Sierra Leone, Tanzania, Rwanda, Malawi, Botswana, and parts of Pakistan all use the pound unofficially. Various ex-colonies still have the Queen as head of state, including Australia and Canada. Canada is also a member of NATO. Are questioning the independence of those states as well, Scipio? Scotland has used the pound sterling since 1707, it’s just as much their currency as it is England’s. Why should they stop using it now?

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    Mute David Sproat
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    Sep 9th 2014, 10:23 PM

    I always find it funny how unionists claim to have a better understanding of what independence actually is than those who actually support it.

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    Mute Steve Tracey
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    Sep 9th 2014, 10:39 PM

    Danny,
    Those countries do not use the pound sterling. The pound sterling is and always was a Bank of England issue, Scottish banks issued own pound notes backed by sterling.

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    Mute Danny Rigg
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    Sep 9th 2014, 10:48 PM

    Steve, did you notice my use of the very important word ‘unofficially’?

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    Mute Stephen O Flynn
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    Sep 9th 2014, 11:21 PM

    Salmond is clever tho because if he asks to have no monarch etc then it makes it harder to get votes. The older generation love all that rubbish and it’s the old folk that vote in numbers

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    Mute Eamonn Óg Ó Gallachóir
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    Sep 10th 2014, 12:08 AM

    @Scipio Democratic Elections in Scotland can remove or keep whoever they like with no outside interference, Currency Monarchy and Nato membership will be decided by the Scottish people also as thats how democracy is supposed to work, silly scare mongering nobody on here under 5 years age

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    Mute fergalreid
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    Sep 10th 2014, 9:24 AM

    Originally, Salmond wanted a neutral Scotland along the Swedish model. Continued NATO membership is a compromise, along with a forecast 1.5% GDP spend on defence (less than the UK but three time’s that of Ireland).

    The pound sterling will likely be a halfway house for two reasons. Firstly, Scotland can return to the old Scottish pound and simply peg it to sterling. Secondly, Brussels will want the Scots in the eurozone eventually!

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    Mute Chris Kirk
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    Sep 10th 2014, 9:37 AM

    Clearly Scipio you know nothing about the referendum debate. It is the Scottish people who will decide for themselves if they want independence, Salmond is not even liked by many of the Yes campaigners . The issues which determine Scotlands future runs much deeper than party politics.

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    Mute Catherine Mill
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    Sep 10th 2014, 9:50 AM

    which country is Sterling in? Is that where the word sterling originated?

    Eire and Scotland were much more evolved before the Romans came and used the British to do their destruction for them for a reward of course.

    The Queen submits to the Pope and its all there in front of all of us – Pope hand over her hand in the City of London- a sovereign state of its own. The Queen needs permission to enter there. In fact she is powerless. its only people who give her power over them in pageantry style.

    All them ACTS – are mere acts- not real.

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    Mute fergalreid
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    Sep 10th 2014, 10:05 AM

    Catherine, have you skipped your lithium dose this morning or something?

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    Mute Mr Phil Officer
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    Sep 10th 2014, 12:05 PM

    Seriously though the Scottish people would want to beware of these three going up, no doubt they have a governmental type PR stunt to pull or failing that a character assassination of the likable Alex Sammond before they go home across the border.

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    Mute Mr Phil Officer
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    Sep 10th 2014, 12:08 PM

    *Salmond

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    Mute Shifty Powers
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    Sep 10th 2014, 12:12 PM

    Hahaha I like the way you couldnt even get the mans name right there Mr Phil. Well done.

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    Mute Scipio
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    Sep 10th 2014, 12:30 PM

    Okay Chris. Show me the depth of your knowledege and tell me what I have said that is wrong? As far as the rest of your point goes, I agree it is for the Scottish people to decide.

    Danny it”s not just as much ‘their currency’. Scotland is proposing to leave the Union not England and Wales. England and Wales as the succesor state will have full control over pound sterling, through the Bank of England. Scotland will be left currency with which they have no control over.

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    Mute Ben Hocking
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    Sep 10th 2014, 12:54 PM

    Catherine, sorry but your talking rubbish.
    The Monarch is by law not allowed to be a Catholic.
    If you wonder why google Henry the 8th and you’ll get a pretty good idea why that came about.

    The Arch Bishop of Canterbury, head of the Church of England appoints a new Monarch on behalf of God, after the previous Monarch dies (very very occasionally abdicates).

    In fact outside the British Catholic church the pope has no power in Britain. There are still British laws on the books that preclude the catholic church from having a direct roll in British Government.

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    Mute Danny Rigg
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    Sep 10th 2014, 1:11 PM

    Scipio, after over 300 years of using the pound sterling, they’re entitled to continue using it. Another commenter pointed out that they could also go back to the Scottish pound and peg it to the sterling. If you hadn’t already noticed, Scotland doesn’t have power over the pound sterling now either. You’re also forgetting all the other places around the world that use the pound sterling with no power over it.

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    Mute Chris Kirk
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    Sep 10th 2014, 1:50 PM

    Scipio, the thing that is wrong with your assertions comes from your observations which say that ‘Scotlands independence will be half assed’. With independence comes sovereignty and the powers to create government without outside interference. At present the Scottish parliament is a devolved institution from Westminster with limited powers of control and fiscal responsibility. Scotland presently pays its revenue to the UK government and gets some of it back to distribute towards health and education. Scotland pays massively towards a UK defence system and in return it has to carry the burden of having the UK’s major nuclear submarine arsenal located close to expanding urban areas. Presently Scotland has very little control over contracts for oil exploration and in future under the UK they will have little control over fracking where licences are already being discussed in Westminster. Very few people living in Scotland voted for the Tory led government in Westminster and therefore they do not feel that they are getting treated fairly by the UK government. These are some of the reasons why Scots want the freedom to make decissions for themselves and I don’t honestly see anything half assed about that…do you !!

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    Mute Dennis Crinion
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    Sep 10th 2014, 5:57 PM

    Has anyone asked the English if they would like to see an independant scotland i believe you would be able to at least double the yes vote,let them at it ,cumbrians will be able to cross the border for the free everything that the jocks out of work flock to blackpool for now.and dont forget the beautiful northof scotland that vast loss making area that gets so much support as do the islands .Get on with it I wont miss anything .Raise the drawbridge jack I’m alright .

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    Mute b
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    Sep 11th 2014, 10:21 PM

    Wasn’t the punt tied to the pound for decades? Why is this a bad thing for a new sovereign nation to tie itself to the currency it was already using until such times as it can join the euro?

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    Mute stewie
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    Sep 9th 2014, 9:54 PM

    If devo max was on the ballot,Cameron and his two flunkies would not be going to Scotland tomorrow because there would be no chance of a Yes vote.He has blown it and he’s going to go down in history as the man who lost the union.Flying the Saltire over Downing st shows that WM are now clutching at straws.Too late chaps.we WILL be a nation again.

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    Mute Liberté et Egalité
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    Sep 9th 2014, 10:20 PM

    Hope so Stewie! I remember staying up all night to watch the devolution of powers vote and taxation vote; can’t wait for the referendum vote! Hope Scotland moves down the road to Independence. The Scots should be ruling the Scots and not a Government (unelected in Scotland) and ruled from another country. Scotland’s time has come.

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    Mute Joe Soap
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    Sep 9th 2014, 11:37 PM

    What a bunch of fools those Public School toffs will look like begging Scotland to remain their friends.

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    Mute Catherine Mill
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    Sep 10th 2014, 9:43 AM

    Yes, and remember to create your own money etc and live long and prosper.

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    Mute Pat Mustard
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    Sep 9th 2014, 9:23 PM

    I would love for the yes side to win but I think the scaremongering from the no side will ensure that the no vote will win it. There is some ridiculous doom and gloom scenarios being predicted by the no side at the moment, and no doubt Cameron will ask all his big business friends in the city of London to come out in the next week saying how the Scottish economy will suffer greatly if they became independent.

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    Mute David Sproat
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    Sep 9th 2014, 10:20 PM

    The scaremongering has been going on for years now (remember this campaign is over 2 years old). In the same way you’re no-longer scared of the boogey-man or shadows in your bedroom – Scots are beginning to see them for what they are.

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    Mute Mary O'Connor
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    Sep 9th 2014, 9:56 PM

    We must remember that people vote with their hearts more often than their heads and there are many Bravehearts in Scotland

    153
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    Mute Danny Rigg
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    Sep 9th 2014, 10:01 PM

    Most people are voting with their heads, there’s a lot of potential in an independent Scotland and the figures ares sound, but they can’t answer some of the key questions because Westminster won’t give Salmond answers unless there’s already been a Yes vote. It’s a deliberate move by Cameron

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    Mute Catherine Mill
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    Sep 10th 2014, 9:46 AM

    Danny. In reality Scotland needs nothing from Cameron or UK. Its all a matter of eliminating the old conditioning and entering and creating a new path through the old jungle.
    How did Cameron make his money ? Enough said.

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    Mute Danny Rigg
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    Sep 10th 2014, 1:06 PM

    They need answers from Cameron, and little else. It’s the lack of definite answers that’s still turning people towards the No side

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    Mute Jason
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    Sep 9th 2014, 9:56 PM

    Is it correct to day that the UK does not have a constitution? (Only manga carta). So how would there be a constitutional crisis if Scotland leaves the union?

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    Mute David Sproat
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    Sep 9th 2014, 10:25 PM

    They call it an ‘unwritten constitution’.

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    Mute Robert Moore
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    Sep 9th 2014, 11:30 PM

    A make it up as you go along type of constitution.

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    Mute David Sproat
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    Sep 9th 2014, 11:42 PM

    Pretty much!

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    Mute Frances Faller
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    Sep 9th 2014, 11:59 PM

    And it was written with invisible ink.

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    Mute Buckwheat MacMillan
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    Sep 10th 2014, 6:17 AM

    Manga mania!

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    Mute fergalreid
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    Sep 10th 2014, 9:18 AM

    The “unwritten constitution” is built on tradition and parliamentary supremacy. But, that said, it’s becoming more written over time. Major domestic and European legislation has tied parliament’s free-wheeling independence. To be frank, they’re probably going to have a new, fully written constitution within my lifetime (that’s the best speed one can hope for from the English).

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    Mute Terry O'Dowd
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    Sep 9th 2014, 10:44 PM

    The Scottish want independence from the U.K.?
    Who are we to criticise them?

    At least it’s being resolved peacefully and democratically.

    When the oil runs out, they’ll be self-sustainable through wind power.
    Joining the Euro will only strengthen it.

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    Mute Chris Kirk
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    Sep 10th 2014, 9:43 AM

    Aye, and they can eventually create a new currency called tourism and scotch whisky.

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    Mute Watcher-on-the-Wall
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    Sep 11th 2014, 12:18 AM

    Really Chris? Do you genuinely believe that is all there is to Scotland? That’s certainly true of parts of the Highlands, but most definitely untrue around and south of the M8 corridor.

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    Mute Philip Riordan
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    Sep 9th 2014, 10:16 PM

    Free Scotland Free Palestine & Free Ireland

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    Mute Terry O'Dowd
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    Sep 9th 2014, 11:00 PM

    Free Hat!

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    Mute David Grey
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    Sep 9th 2014, 11:54 PM

    Free England too!- English Republic NOW!!

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    Mute Juan Venegas
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    Sep 10th 2014, 12:39 PM

    Free booze!

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    Mute KeiKe
    Favourite KeiKe
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    Sep 9th 2014, 10:38 PM

    It’s about time all this imperial crap got the boot,all the sh!t imperialism has caused over the centuries..Scotland can be proud to stand alone

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    Mute Philip Riordan
    Favourite Philip Riordan
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    Sep 9th 2014, 10:21 PM

    How is it better for Scotland to stay under the control of a foreign government
    Every country should be free to govern itself

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    Mute sid
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    Sep 9th 2014, 10:06 PM

    I’d love to see them go independent just to see the union break up. Wales next and Cornwall too.

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    Mute David Grey
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    Sep 9th 2014, 11:54 PM

    There is some debate whether Cornwall is actually legally part of England!
    Celtic Cousins of the Bretons!
    Hopefully the Scots will start the ball rolling and before I die I will see England a free Nation, no longer wheighed down by the shackles of Monarchy and Historical Imperial Guilt!
    An England of equal opportunities-my dream! !
    A bloodless coup, a takeover by the people-will never happen though, too many mindless zombies flicking channels from Jeremy Kyle to the soaps and a raft of reality shows! – Loyal to the Queen but they don’t know why!! :-/

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    Mute George Grey
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    Sep 9th 2014, 10:24 PM

    If Scotland was such a financial burden the UK would have set them afloat a long time ago. Of course the opposite is true, from the land settlements to the discovery of oil Scotland has had to play second fiddle to England and help to line it’s coffers. But this vote is as much about identity as it is about economics and history seems to be pleading it’s case for a Free Scotland.

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    Mute George Grey
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    Sep 9th 2014, 10:28 PM

    Also, I should say, I was a student at Newbattle Abbey College in Dalkeith. This college was a gateway into university and supported by both government and unions. The Tories closed it down in the late eighties because of its union connections. This is what a country like Scotland can do without and avoid in the future….I.e…..interference from Westminster!

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    Mute Feargal Sammon
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    Sep 10th 2014, 3:41 AM

    Think off all the people worldwide who died for their countries independence and all Scotland has to do is tick yes .they should .

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    Mute Pat O'Brien
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    Sep 9th 2014, 9:23 PM

    Scottish independence will lead them to ruin just like this banana republic. Let them off if they want it. But there’ll be no going back.

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    Mute The Green Monkey
    Favourite The Green Monkey
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    Sep 9th 2014, 9:27 PM

    Spoken like a true loyalist………

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    Mute Danny Rigg
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    Sep 9th 2014, 10:06 PM

    This country isn’t in ruin, and it isn’t a banana republic. It’s in a fairly terrible state, but don’t exaggerate.

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    Mute ciaran clarke
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    Sep 9th 2014, 10:40 PM

    Scotland is ignored by Westminster.their voice is not recognised under a conservative government.
    I hope they get their independence.
    Scots should decide their own fate and the future of their nation.

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    Mute Paul Furey
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    Sep 9th 2014, 11:08 PM

    I don’t think anyone has a clue on what will fully happen should the yes vote wins

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    Mute Mick Early
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    Sep 10th 2014, 2:36 AM

    Pat you’re a dope! No other word for ye!

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    Mute Mr Phil Officer
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    Sep 10th 2014, 10:53 AM

    Haha the desperation is dripping off your comment there loyalist Pat, the three stooges are scurrying up now to save their own jobs and reputation in case history remembers them as the incompetents who lost the “great” out of Britain. Scottish independence coupled with a dwindling unionist population and inevitable united Ireland on this island will be the final nail in the empire. A real Eton mess.

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    Mute Anthony Ryan
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    Sep 10th 2014, 11:02 AM

    What’d an United Ireland be like? What would we do with the British army, the NHS, Loyalist fleg waving knuckle-draggers, etc?

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    Mute Shifty Powers
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    Sep 10th 2014, 12:08 PM

    How is a united Ireland inevitable? Was the unionist vote not increased in the last election?

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    Mute Helen Gallagher
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    Sep 10th 2014, 12:13 PM

    That is for sure. There are so many unanswered questions. Sure they don’t even know what currency they will use

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    Mute Mr Phil Officer
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    Sep 10th 2014, 12:30 PM

    How is a united Ireland not inevitable? Have you seen the fractious leaderless state of the unionist parties.

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    Mute Eamonn Óg Ó Gallachóir
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    Sep 9th 2014, 10:24 PM

    ‘It is bound to have a destabilising effect on Northern? Ireland’, how so a vote will take place on Irish unity by lifetime of next assembly regardless?

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    Mute Damian O'Brien
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    Sep 10th 2014, 12:40 AM

    How? In the six counties there will not be a majority vote for union with Ireland. Also, Ireland has to vote on the question. Don’t be so sure of a majoriry in Ireland either.

    If it was emotivie and based on history, especially before 1900 you might be inclined to say a vote on both sides of the border would go the way of a yes vote.

    Howerer, the debate in Scotland has largely bèen economy driven. If that was replicated over here, Ireland both
    North and South would vote no.

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    Mute Sam Toland
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    Sep 10th 2014, 1:20 AM

    In 2 months opinion polls in Scotland have gone from 37% against to 51% for.

    And lets not forget that the people of Dublin were lining O’Connell Street in 1916 to throw vegetables at Pearse and Connolly.

    It isn’t until these issues become live that people really start to think about the choice they are making. And often change there minds, history has show us that on innumerable occasions. When it comes to matters of nationhood things can change utterly, very quickly.

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    Mute Eamonn Óg Ó Gallachóir
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    Sep 10th 2014, 2:59 AM

    Damien i said the vote will take place as the Deputy First Minister who has the authority has called for it to take place during the lifetime of the Next assembly before 2020 in the occupied part of Ireland the unreturned part. If it benefited the Island as a whole which it would and not needing to duplicate services, spending 30-40m a year on a silly protest over a flag that wont exist in few weeks and the annual sectarian clashes over the differences carefully fostered by the alien Government as outlined in our proclamation of the 32 county Republic . That said i will be debating with unionists on our future and hopefully the young non nationalist Scottish youth can convince them of Irish freedom also

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    Mute Chris Kirk
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    Sep 10th 2014, 9:46 AM

    It certainly will be interesting to see how the unionist Ulster Scots will take it if Scotland becomes independent. They are presently staying awfully quiet about the prospect.

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    Mute Chris Kirk
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    Sep 10th 2014, 9:49 AM

    And what currency would NI use if they decided to go it alone.

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    Mute Shifty Powers
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    Sep 10th 2014, 12:10 PM

    Because its none of our concern Chris, I dont give a damn if Scotland get independence or not. Good luck to them if they do.

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    Mute Eamonn Óg Ó Gallachóir
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    Sep 10th 2014, 2:30 PM

    They would use Euro same as most of them do now crossing the border daily just give back the pound as Dublin did not so long ago, the Scottish unionists will be the same as the unionists in the 26 counties with political aspirations of us all being part of uk same as Nationalists/Internationalists/Republicans and others are waiting since 1169 for our freedom Chris

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    Mute Fintan Rafferty
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    Sep 9th 2014, 11:14 PM

    Good content in this article , having an independent Scotland will be a huge positive Ireland as we like competition and were well set up to meet anything thrown at us head on , also a break up of Britain our biggest trading partner would have a more balanced positive outcome for our relationship into the future,on a separate note next year is the 700 anniversary of The Battle of Faughart just north of Dundalk where Edward Bruce brother of Robert Bruce was killed , my point being we have had close relations with neighbour for a very long time here’s to a independant and prosperous Scotland

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    Mute Anthony Ryan
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    Sep 10th 2014, 11:12 AM

    I’d imagine we’ll create a kind of Celtic Trading cooperative with the Scots as we’re pretty much mirror images of each other and friendly competition and cooperation will be mutually beneficial.

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    Mute Jim Brady
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    Sep 9th 2014, 9:23 PM

    Paul Krugman writes eloquently in today’s Irish Times about the lunacy of Scotland seeking independence whilst simultaneously keeping the pound sterling.

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    Mute Scipio
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    Sep 9th 2014, 9:33 PM

    It is sheer lunacy. Krugman was right on the Euro and that was sheer lunacy as well. And it’s also sheer lunacy to believe Scotland can be an independent nation without expierencing years of serious economic pain, that disengagement from the Union will certainly bring.

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    Mute Danny Rigg
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    Sep 9th 2014, 9:58 PM

    How was the euro sheer lunacy? It’s second only to the pound sterling

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    Mute Diarmaid Mac Aonghusa
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    Sep 10th 2014, 8:52 AM

    How is it second to the pound sterling? It’s the currency of about 250 million people including the Germans….

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    Mute Scipio
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    Sep 10th 2014, 12:21 PM

    You need to brush up on your economics, if you can’t see the fundamental problems of the Euro,(the Deutschmark in disguise). It’s been an unmitigated disaster, or maybe you have not noticed what’s going on in southern Europe.

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    Mute Danny Rigg
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    Sep 10th 2014, 1:15 PM

    Diarmuid, it’s second in terms of exchange rate and power of the currency. The number of people it’s used by is irrelevant. The Euro is a strong currency, and only the pound sterling is stronger

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    Mute Danny Rigg
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    Sep 10th 2014, 1:23 PM

    Italy was a mess before the Euro, and with a person like Berlusconi in power you’re really not going to have a great economy. Greece has always been a to-and-of sorts with periods of complete chaos because there’s so much squabbling. Spain and Portugal have only been free of fascist dictatorships since the 1970s and, like every country that has ever come out of an oppressive regime, are now coming out of a period of economic and political instability. Spain is still going through political instability with various separatist groups. The problems faced in Spain is similar to that of Ireland with serious over construction of poorly designed houses and apartments that led to a major market crash. Despite all that these countries are still far higher on economic rankings than almost all other countries in the world. If the EU were a country it’d be the most powerful economically and the richest, if not one of the most powerful and one of the richest. Your knowledge of history and economics has proven time and time again to be terrible, Scipio. How exactly do you think the Euro has been a disaster?

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    Mute Diarmaid Mac Aonghusa
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    Sep 10th 2014, 1:26 PM

    @Danny But the euro is far stronger against Sterling than it was in years past. Back in 2000 it was about £1 to €1.70 whereas now it is £1 to €1.26. The denomination is not relevant – any currency could choose to change it’s numbers and many have such as the Turkish Lira – it doesn’t mean they are any stronger.

    (Rates from http://www.oanda.com/currency/historical-rates/ )

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    Mute Danny Rigg
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    Sep 10th 2014, 3:38 PM

    The exchange rate and the strength of the currency is different. Also, they can do things to change the exchange rate, to inflate and deflate it, but they can’t actually control it

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    Mute Pádraig McCann
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    Sep 9th 2014, 10:17 PM

    Scotland is better in the Union, but if they vote Yes then all the best to them.

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    Mute Shifty Powers
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    Sep 9th 2014, 9:38 PM

    As a Unionist I believed over the last 2 years that this would never happen but I now believe that it will but the more I think about it the more I realise I shouldnt really care that much about it. The only people that should be apprehensive are the Scots as theres a lot of uncertainty hanging over the yes vote.

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    Mute Jamie McCormack
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    Sep 9th 2014, 11:33 PM

    The union was always a sham. A Franco/Germanic monarchy based in London claiming sovereignty over all of these islands, with a religious division thrown into the mix… was always doomed to failure.

    The North of Ireland, Catalonia, the Basque country..

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    Mute Stephen O Flynn
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    Sep 9th 2014, 11:33 PM

    The nervous ones are the bigots on shankill road.

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    Mute Mick Early
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    Sep 10th 2014, 2:32 AM

    Shifty you are an ass as always!

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    Mute Cathal Golden
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    Sep 10th 2014, 7:52 AM

    Be afraid shifty, be very afraid!

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    Mute Shifty Powers
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    Sep 10th 2014, 11:55 AM

    Mick I dont believe i’ve ever spoken to you on here before so not sure how you drew up that conclusion.

    Be afraid of what Cathal? You boys must be deluded if you think Scottish independence will have any bearing on a united Ireland, theres no appetite here for a united Ireland and never will be. Let the Scottish have their time and stop thinking about your own ends for once. PS It would be funny if Scotland did get independence without even firing a shot, republicans here have been murdering people since 1921 and they are as far back as ever ;)

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    Mute Shifty Powers
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    Sep 10th 2014, 11:59 AM

    Afraid of what Cathal, I clearly stated above that I dont care. It would actually annoy a lot of republicans here if they did get independence without firing a shot, maybe they could move to Scotland like they always tell us to lol

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    Mute Shifty Powers
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    Sep 10th 2014, 12:00 PM

    Last reply was for Stephen not Cathal.

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    Mute Cathal Golden
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    Sep 10th 2014, 4:27 PM

    Every comment you post shifty has a nervousness about it! You seem to keep stating that there will never be a United Ireland and then restating it again! We got your point the first time and don’t worry I bet you aren’t typing all these comments of self assurance with sweaty palms hee hee! Ulster says YES will be the cry someday soon! (-:

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    Mute Banga Ncube
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    Sep 9th 2014, 9:41 PM

    Scotland will vote to maintain the Union. The people of Scotland are not stupid. I have a bet of €1,000 at 1/2 with Paddy Power that I am confident of collecting soon.

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    Mute Niall H
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    Sep 9th 2014, 9:47 PM

    You, my friend, have more money than sense.

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    Mute Hung Xi
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    Sep 9th 2014, 10:09 PM

    That is an idiots bet.

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    Mute Jamie McCormack
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    Sep 9th 2014, 11:37 PM

    Hate to say it but i reckon Banga’s gonna win 500 squid.

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    Mute Mick Early
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    Sep 10th 2014, 2:37 AM

    Hope ya lose!

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    Mute Cathal Golden
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    Sep 10th 2014, 8:28 AM

    A fool and his money are quickly parted!

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    Mute Diarmaid Mac Aonghusa
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    Sep 10th 2014, 8:55 AM

    Not on your side but I strongly suspect you’ll collect.

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    Mute PAUL DOYLE
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    Sep 10th 2014, 11:43 AM

    That’s a terrible bet

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    Mute Jamie McCormack
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    Sep 10th 2014, 9:35 PM

    By the way Banga, you are a pure wind up merchant! I genuinely believed for ages that you were female based on that one comment last year… now I realise I don’t know any female who bets! Ok no more chivalrous behaviour towards you anymore : )

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    Mute Diarmaid Mac Aonghusa
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    Sep 10th 2014, 8:56 AM

    Where is this “Southern Ireland” place referred to in the article? Cork? Kerry? Because I can’t imagine the writer could be referring to an area that includes Donegal….

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    Mute Dessie Curley
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    Sep 10th 2014, 9:49 AM

    The Tories always said they would cut binge drinking by 90% in the uk but this is a bit of an extreme way to do it

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    Mute Juan Venegas
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    Sep 10th 2014, 9:32 AM

    This article was going well, with a few grammatical mistakes until they referred to us as “Southern Ireland”, Last time I checked my passport says “Eire/Ireland” and its legal name “The Republic of Ireland” I haven’t heard of a country called “Southern Ireland”, there is one called Northern Ireland and another called Ireland, if some people are ticked because legally Ireland is referred to the Republic then too bad, deal with it, we are not Southern Irish, we are by law Irish.

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    Mute Eamonn Óg Ó Gallachóir
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    Sep 10th 2014, 11:12 PM

    Northern Ireland is as much a country as Southern Ireland pity the western and Eastern Irelanders with No country juan they need bring more settlers with different color or religion to divide conquer and rule misrule them

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    Mute Paul Mcnerney
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    Sep 9th 2014, 11:33 PM

    Good article thanks!

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    Mute Mad Hatter
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    Sep 10th 2014, 11:03 AM

    If Scots vote No Westminster should draw up legislation to remove the terms Scotland and Scottish from the English vernacular. It should be unlawful to fly the flag of St Andrew. Scotland should be renamed Northern Britain. Scotland should be kicked out of UEFA and the IRB. Come on Scotland. Grow a pair. Vote Yes.

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    Mute Feargal Sammon
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    Sep 10th 2014, 3:39 AM

    Mel says free Scotland

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    Mute Tinker Taylor
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    Sep 10th 2014, 11:16 AM

    No chance of Celtic and Rangers joining the premiership after independence. No BBC Scotland. No more Antiques road-show from some castle north of the border.

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    Mute b
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    Sep 11th 2014, 10:27 PM

    At tinkertaylor who cares about BBC Scotland or football this is
    The creation of a new nation we are talking about!

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    Mute michael collins
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    Sep 10th 2014, 8:19 AM

    Isle of Man are voting to use the old punts next year !

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    Mute Caroline aMarie
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    Sep 10th 2014, 2:14 PM

    GO SCOTLAND! Be Celtic and FREE!!!

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    Mute Caroline aMarie
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    Sep 10th 2014, 2:13 PM

    Britain losing Scotland.And Northern Ireland.I wish it happened. I wish I could see the Queen’s face when she would say:’We are not amused’.ROTFL.

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    Mute Watcher-on-the-Wall
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    Sep 11th 2014, 12:25 AM

    I’d love to see her face when she has to apply for a visa to go to Balmoral for the summer….

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    Mute Anthony Ryan
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    Sep 10th 2014, 11:15 AM

    What happens to the union flag if that YES vote wins?

    What happens to the term “Great Britain” in the event of Scottish independence?

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    Mute b
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    Sep 11th 2014, 10:30 PM

    Don’t care!

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    Mute eastsmer
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    Sep 10th 2014, 6:49 PM

    Scotland if it votes Yes then we should consider much closer ties with it.
    Scotland the brave !

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    Mute John B. Reid
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    Sep 10th 2014, 10:13 PM

    Didn’t Obama sweep into office on the back of “Yes We Can, Yes We Can”? That seems out of sync with the No to independence campaign and their Obama poster.

    If Obama was Scottish, I’d say he’d be saying “Yes We Can” to independence.

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