THE CHANGE IN the polls has given fresh hope to Sinn Féin that it may be able to upturn expectations at the outset of the campaign – putting several constituencies and gains in contention for the party.
Mary Lou McDonald’s party has overtaken Fine Gael according to an Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll published Monday.
Sinn Fein is on 20% with voters according to that poll – up one point since the last poll two weeks ago – while Fianna Fail is marginally ahead on 21%.
According to party strategists who spoke to The Journal in recent days, they believe the polls are still understating their support and that SF is now on the cusp of achieving a number of gains – several of which were being discounted only weeks ago.
They have been hoping that last night’s leaders’ with McDonald debate will have given them enough of a boost to see roughly half of their 71 candidates elected.
Sinn Féin’s director of elections Matt Carthy insisted its real position lies “above where the polls that have been published have us”, explaining this is based on the responses received by canvass teams around the country.
“We’re very happy with the way the campaign has been going,” said Carthy, who is also the party’s TD for Cavan-Monaghan.
Over the last fortnight, the party believes it’s been greatly boosted in its bid to hold all 33 seat that they currently have.
This covers several seats that the party was concerned about – including Wexford, Tipperary South and Cork East – but which they now feel are looking safer.
Campaigners also reckon they have a much better chance of retaining a spot in five-seat Carlow-Kilkenny, which was being written off initially after Kathleen Funchion was elected to Europe. It’s gone with a two-candidate strategy via Carlow and south Kilkenny to try and ensure a vote.
It also expects to still be in the hunt for a seat in Galway East – candidate Louis O’Hara fell short on a seat there by around 400 votes at the last general election. An extra slot is available this time as it’s become a four-seater.
It had been expected to be a struggle in Clare after its 2020 TD Violet-Anne Wynne left the party.
Wynne is now standing as an Independent but the party believe its Shannon-based county councillor Donna McGettigan will claim a seat.
Non-aligned campaigners on the ground in Clare have also told The Journal that they can see a turn in sentiment towards Sinn Féin after the campaign got underway.
However, party insiders don’t feel like a seat in Laois is likely for them at present as its former Public Accounts Committee chairperson Brian Stanley is standing there as an independent republican candidate. Maria McCormack is the party standard bearer for the election after Stanley left the party amid controversy this year.
In Cork North Central, Sinn Féin had added its press officer Joe Lynch to the ticket here alongside its current TD Thomas Gould who easily surpassed the quota last time with over 3,000 votes more than needed.
The party is hoping that Lynch can finish ahead of a range of left candidates including People Before Profit-Solidarity TD Mick Barry Labour and the Social Democrats, and benefit from their transfers.
A similar strategy is hoped for in the capital where the party are aiming to get two seats in a number of constituencies.
In Dublin South Central, veteran TD Aengus Ó Snodaigh was elected with more than two quotas last time around.
His running mates now are councillors Máire Devine and Daithí Doolan. While both successful in June’s local elections, they had markedly different ways of getting back on Dublin City Council: Devine picked up the last seat in the South West Inner City while long-time councillor Doolan comfortably topped the poll in Ballyfermot–Drimnagh.
The party believes the recent shifts provide enough to get a second TD here.
Elsewhere, its TD Paul Donnelly had almost double the quota in Dublin West four years ago – but the party is less confident of a second seat here. Its councillor Breda Hanaphy is up against Green Party leader Roderic O’Gorman as well as People Before Profit-Solidarity councillor Ruth Coppinger and Labour’s John Walsh.
In Dublin Mid-West, the party is expecting to retain the two seats it secured in 2020. Housing spokesperson Eoin O Bróin and mental health spokesperson Mark Ward are helped by the constituency becoming a five-seater.
On an uncomfortable day for Sinn Féin last June at the local elections, Waterford turned into one of their few bright spots: SF displaced Fianna Fáil in some rural areas to become the joint largest party on the council with Fine Gael.
In Dungarvan, its full-time councillor Conor D McGuinness, a former staff worker in Brussels for Sinn Féin, has been added to run alongside health spokesperson David Cullinane.
It was not for nothing that their campaign was kicked off in this area on the first full day of campaigning, with Mary Lou McDonald visiting Dungarvan the day after Simon Harris officially called an election.
Sinn Féin is banking on McGuinness as the only candidate from a major party based in west Waterford, which was without a TD for the first time in decades after John Deasy retired from Fine Gael.
Cullinane received a historic 38 percent of first preferences in 2020 – almost two quotas – and would have easily added a second TD for the party if they had stood one.
West Waterford still makes up just around a third of the overall voting population so the party would still need a strong vote from there, while fighting off challenges from Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and outgoing Independent TD Matt Shanahan who have all been targetting the same area for votes.
But Sinn Féin campaigners have gone from hoping they were in the hunt for a second seat to now feeling they’re “nearly back at 2020 levels” of support locally and have become strongly confident they’ll see McGuinness elected.
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