THE SOCIAL DEMOCRATS and the Green Party look set to win TDs in the Galway West constituency, while Independent candidates Catherine Connelly and Noel Grealish are in danger of losing their seats according to a TG4/Ipsos MRBI poll.
Both parties have dramatically increased their vote share according to analysis of the poll results: the Soc Dem party support has increased from 5% in the 2016 general election to 12% in this poll.
The Green Party has increased its support from 2% in 2016 to 10% in this TG4 poll.
Fine Gael’s Hildegarda Naughten, Fianna Fáil’s Eamon Ó Cúív, the Soc Dems’ Niall Ó Tuathail, the Green Party’s Pauline O’Reilly and Fine Gael’s Sean Kyne are in the top five places – but transfers could move this around if the result is mirrored in the election.
As it stands, Catherine Connelly (on 9%) is in danger of losing her seat – as is Noel Grealish (on 7%). As both are incumbents and are experienced, they could do well on transfers on the day.
Niall Ó Tuathail from the Social Democrats missed out in the 2016 election, and Pauline O’Reilly, the Green Party spokesperson for Children and Youth Affairs did well in the local elections last year. Both are in with a good shot at a seat, according to this poll.
Ipsos MRBI are carrying out three polls on behalf of TG4 in Donegal, Kerry and Galway – representing the three main Gaeltacht areas – as part of their Vóta 2020 programme.
The results of the Donegal poll last week showed that Sinn Féin’s Pearse Doherty is on course to top the poll, and that Sinn Féin could gain a second seat.
In Galway West, when the results of the polls are analysed to give an an indication as to the parties’ support, both Fine Gael (with 23%) and Fianna Fáil (with 20%) exceed one quota, so it is very likely that each party will win at least one seat.
Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have high profile candidates in Galway West, with Fianna Fáil’s Éamon Ó Cuív on 12% and Minister of State Seán Kyne on 10%, down slightly on 2016 but both within the margin of error of 4%.
The quota in Galway West is 17% – no one candidate has enough first preference votes to reach the quota according to the poll.
This isn’t different from the last time: it was Count 9 when the first TD was elected in Galway West in 2016, and Count 13 before anyone else was elected.
The TG4/Ipsos MRBI Galway West constituency poll was conducted among a sample of 525 adults aged 18 upwards. Interviewing took place on 24 and 26 January.
The results of TG4/Ipsos MRBI’s poll in the Kerry constituency will be released next Tuesday 4 February.
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