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SPECULATION THAT THE Covid-19 pandemic – and in particular the measures implemented to stem the spread of the virus – has led to an increase in suicide deaths has persisted despite there being no evidence to support the claims.
Unfounded conjecture surrounding rising suicide rates remains common on social media in many countries, including Ireland – particularly in anti-lockdown and anti-vaccine Facebook, Telegram and WhatsApp groups.
The most recent Central Statistics Office (CSO) quarterly statistics are also being touted as evidence of a spike in suicides despite the data being largely in-line with previous, pre-2020 trends.
In the latest ‘vital statistics’ update, the CSO notes that recorded suicides were 192% higher in quarter two of 2021 than they were in Q2 of 2020.
However, the CSO has attached a major caveat to the 2020 figures, due to the fact that Covid-19 restrictions on Coroners’ Courts holding public hearings at the start of the pandemic meant the recorded number of suicides was artificially low that quarter.
In Q2 of each of the five years before the pandemic, the number of suicide deaths registered was in the range 63-120. Due to the underreporting in 2020, the number fell to just 25. In 2021 it moved back in line with previous years (73 were recorded) when the restrictions on Coroners’ Courts were relaxed.
The National Suicide Research Foundation says this indicates a return to previous levels of registered suicide deaths, not an increased level of suicide.
The independent research unit investigates the causes of suicide and self-harm in Ireland. It is a registered charity and receives the majority of its funding from the HSE.
It must also be noted that Ireland’s method for recording suicide deaths means the figures for 2020 won’t be finalised until October/ November this year and the figures for 2021 won’t be finalised until the end of 2023.
The NSRF head of research, Dr Paul Corcoran, says the foundation has picked up on inaccurate claims about rising suicide rates throughout the pandemic and noted that the unfounded online speculation can be harmful to those at risk of suicide.
“Soon after the onset of the pandemic there were many claims related to an anticipated increase in suicidal behaviour. These claims, and their reinforcement, risk impacting negatively on vulnerable members of the population.
The reliable suicide data that has emerged over the course of the pandemic has shown that most countries have seen no increase in suicide deaths and some have seen a decrease. However, an interest in making claims about possible increases in suicide has persisted.
The foundation’s chief scientist, Professor Ella Arensman, noted that some media outlets can also cause significant harm by sensationalising suicide stories and by jumping to conclusions based on incomplete statistics.
“People who are currently experiencing depression, they will not question the statements in the media.”
Arensman warned that when people in a vulnerable position see headlines indicating a link between the pandemic and a surge in suicides “they could take that for granted and it can negatively impact on their current situation. That doesn’t give hope.”
Corcoran, who is also an epidemiologist, also noted that the assertions regularly come with cherry-picked statistics.
“Interestingly, the CSO Q1 2021 data gave a figure of 36 suicides, half the number of 72 in Q1 2020. These figures could have been used to suggest that the pandemic was associated with a large decrease in suicide deaths. However, there seems to be more interest in making claims about potential increases.”
The procedures that have to be followed before a death is determined as a suicide in Ireland means that there is a time lag between a suicide occurring and it being recorded in the statistics.
The cause of death in suspected suicide cases is reached through a coroner’s inquest, which is not held until at least six weeks after the person’s death, and inquests can take several months to reach a verdict.
Registration of a suicide death happens soon after the inquest and the CSO quarterly figures represent the number of suicide deaths registered in the quarter.
Therefore, the quarterly figures strongly correlate with the number of inquests of suicide deaths that were held, not the number of suicide deaths that occurred. The deaths in question usually occurred approximately six months earlier.
This is why curbs on Coroners Courts in 2020 caused such a dramatic dip in the Q2 2020 figure.
The CSO told The Journal this impact was felt from March 2020 onwards. It noted that it provided a detailed caveat on the matter in the Q2 2020 release and also mentioned it again in the Q2 2021 release.
The CSO releases mortality data, including suicide statistics, in three different stages. First, there is the provisional stage which provides the number of deaths based on year of registration. The data remains provisional for around two years, so the statistics from Q2 2020 and 2021 are still provisional.
Next, there is an official stage which revises the numbers based on year of occurrence, and finally, the figures are revised again to include late registrations.
There are usually notable changes between provisional and official suicide figures, with the official figures almost always higher.
The official annual stats are published about 20 months after any given year’s end. Further to this around 15% of suicide deaths are registered too late to be included in these official figures.
“Unfortunately, it is necessary to wait three-four years to get a close reflection of the number of suicide deaths in Ireland,” Dr Corcoran said.
The NSRF operates the Suicide and Self-Harm Observatory (SSHO) which gathers real-time suicide and self-harm data from Cork and Kerry.
The observatory is provided with an update on suspected suicide cases in the counties every two weeks, giving it a picture of the situation long before the CSO data.
Professor Arensman said there are indications of a slight increase in self-harm in the most recent data from Cork and Kerry, with people who are not receiving the face-to-face mental health support they require suffering.
She added that this is in-line with international statistics in other high-income countries where slight increases in suicide rates have been recorded in recent months.
“For people with mild anxiety with mild depression this [online supports/telemedicine] has been shown to be sufficient. But for people with severe depression, severe anxiety, and other severe mental health conditions, we don’t yet have proven effectiveness,” Arensman said.
She added that real-time data on suspected suicides across Ireland would be hugely beneficial for intervention and prevention purposes.
While there is no evidence that the pandemic has led to an increase in suicides, organisations that provide mental health support have noticed a shift in the demand for their services, particularly at times of uncertainty regarding restrictions.
The ISPCC said it has experienced increases in contacts to Childline at particular points but the listening service has not experienced an overall increase over the duration of the pandemic to date.
“When restrictions were first announced, children and young people were among the first to be impacted. In the week in which schools were closed, our listening service experienced an increase in online contacts, calls and texts,” an ISPCC spokesperson said.
The period of March to April 2020 saw the number of visitors to Childline’s website jump by over 50% compared with the same period in 2019.
Pieta House said overall demand for Pieta’s services increased by 22% from 2020 to 2021. The number of under 18s seeking support increased by 42% last year and more than doubled on the same time the year before.
The charity was prompted to launch a recruitment campaign to find additional therapists to meet the demand.
“Our services have been needed more than ever, and an increase in the volume of therapists with specific experience to deal with our increasing younger age group became a priority for us in the summer of 2021,” a Pieta spokesperson said.
Youth organisation Spunout said there were “big spikes” in demand in October and late December 2020 that coincide with increasing Covid restrictions.
“In terms of negative effects on mental health, or an increase in the need for mental health supports, we can highlight that service demand increased for us during times of pandemic uncertainty,” a spokesperson noted.
The traffic to Spunout’s website has doubled since the start of the pandemic and its most read articles are on self harm, the effects of social media on mental health, and depression.
The Samaritans said it hasn’t seen a huge increase in demand as its service has always been very busy, carrying out approximately half a million calls per year.
“What we did notice was that calls were longer for many people as callers struggled to cope with Covid and it’s restrictions – leading to more loneliness, isolation and causing family and relationship issues,” the charity said.
The HSE provides advice on how to mind your mental health during the coronavirus outbreak on its Your Mental Health website.
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I still didn’t get a bloody tan.
My grandfather said the same in the 1900′s
“The North and South Poles are not melting.” In that report, oceanographer Ted Maksym noted that polar ice “is much more stable than climate scientists once predicted and could even be much thicker than previously thought.”
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Al Gore , the Guru,said al the Arctic ice would be gone by 2014. He was wrong.
As a result of this global warming/climate change hysteria and it’s attendant scams every aspect of your life has been interfered with and has become more expensive. Old people have died in Ireland and the UK and on the Continent as a result of having to choose between food and heat. Further afield people are starving as food is turned into fuel. People like Al Gore make millions while having the ‘carbon footprints’ of small towns and all the time carbon is nothing more than plant food NOT the poison the alarmists make it out to be and yet we are force fed articles like this written by the useful idiots of the green religion. Wake up folks, you are being taken for a very expensive ride.
I fully agree with Uncle Mort, the biggest rip off in history, set to destroy western values and way of life and when the warmers do that they will walk off into the sunset leaving us with the mess
In before the anti-science brigade claiming that all this talk of global warming is just a conspiracy cooked up by a secret cabal of climate scientists which has been exposed by a plucky bunch of amateur oil billionaires and venture capitalists.
One of the main causes of global warming is the destruction of Rainforests …
One of the driving forces behind the economics that have driven this is none other than Peter Sutherland and his GATT arrangement…..
This is undeniable economic and historical fact .
Does Peter Sutherland want to kill trees – probably not. Are his policies destroying trees -definitely .
That will help you distinguish between fantastical theories and economic and historical facts Robin …
Or to put it simply fats buck in third world resources is destroying the planet and the beauty of it all is that no-one is to blame – “It’s just business !” …
*fast – but fats works just as well actually …
Re Robin
You mean cooked up by 2-3% of scientists. That 97% of scientists agree has been rubbished.
No one who is 18 years old or younger has experienced global warming.
As I said, in before the tinfoil hat brigade!
*sheesh*
Sorry, I forgot to provide link to backup my statement on the 97% of scientists agree rubbish.
http://econlog.econlib.org/archives/2014/03/16_not_97_agree.html
Here’s that 97% figure from a peer-reviewed scientific journal, rather than a crank website:
http://m.iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/2/024024
“Among abstracts expressing a position on AGW, 97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming.”
Re Robin
Well the fact you are referencing this site shows you believe in AGW as defined by the IPCC which is that it is solely caused by man made co2 emissions.
It’s hard to have debates with people devoid of reason and bought off scientists. All the factors that can contribute to climate change(natural anyway), hundreds of them, and you believe that man made co2 emissions is the sole cause. Good God.
Man made co2 emissions make up 2-3% of all co2 emissions with planet Earth providing the other 98-97%. And you believe man made co2 emissions are solely to blame…
As I said above, innit great that all these thousands of climate scientists, bought off by bearded, nasal hippies and voluptuous earth mother types, have been exposed by a tiny group of amateur oil billionaires and venture caps?
Makes me proud to be human, it does!
So libertarian bloggers are henceforward the sole determiner of Climate Change, got it.
Congratulations Robin. Straw Men, Ad Hominum, Appeals to authority – three fallacies in one sentence. That takes some doing. None of the fallacies of course actually mean anything.
Even if you don’t believe in climate change you cannot deny green energy is the best way to power a society. Cheap, clean and doesn’t run out
“The global surface temperature average (land and sea) for 2014 was nominally the warmest since the global instrumental record began in 1850; however, within the margin of error, it is tied with 2005 and 2010 and so we can’t be certain it set a new record.”
The only conclusion to be drawn from the addition of 2014 data is that the post-1997 standstill seen in global annual average surface temperature has continued for one more year making it now about 17 years in duration. This is the opposite of what is claimed in the Nasa press release.
It is clear beyond doubt by now that there is a growing discrepancy between computer climate projections and real-world data that questions their ability to produce meaningful projections about future climatic conditions.
@stephen lane, Hilliard and co are masters of the sneer and jeer and little else. The Climategate 2 emails showed the nastiness behind the climate fraud.
Not if you actually read the stolen emails, Mort.
Which I suspect you didn’t.
Robin,
What was the volcanic activity like in 2014 compared to other years ?
When you find that out then you can talk about Glowbull Warming.
“Even if you don’t believe in climate change you cannot deny green energy is the best way to power a society. Cheap, clean and doesn’t run out”
Absolute rubbish on all accounts. You cant design a grid around “green” energy – its all but useless without fossil fuel. And btw, it takes copious amounts of fossil fuel to build and install wind turbines.
So they are a complete waste of resources :
http://www.scotsman.com/news/comment-renewables-drain-our-resources-1-3659067
Let’s just have a bit of perspective here.
It’s hotter by four one-hundreths of a degree. This is within the margin of error that the reports provide, so basically we don’t know if it was a hot year as the temperature rise was too small.
Try read that bit again there young Horgay:
“For the year, the average temperature was 0.69 degree Celsius above the 20th century average, beating the previous record-holding years of 2005 and 2010 by 0.04 C.”
Don’t be too harsh, Horgay has reading difficulties.
It appears, that even in Ireland , we have some Bible thumping, ‘world is flat’ , in denial , GOP – Tea Party types, who just haven’t even noticed – the weather changes , the ice melts , the extremities of heat and cold weather !
Well in the REAL World, in my 63 years , there has been a remarkable change in our weather and environment .
Speak to anyone – who is prepared to be truly honest . But unfortunately honesty is somewhat sadly lacking – where there is conflict of interest , or a narrow minded outlook !
Differing daily measured values from the old and new sensors for temperature measurement spurred the author [Hager] to conduct a comparison spanning from January 1, 1999 to July 31, 2006 at Fliegerhorst Lechfeld (WMO 10856) 8-1/2 years long, daily without interruption, among other comparison tests of mercury maximum glass thermometers in a Stevenson screen and a Pt 100 resistance thermometer inside an aluminum enclosure, both unventilated. The 3144 days yielded a mean difference of +0.93°C; the Pt 100 was higher than the mercury thermometer. The maximum daily difference even reached 6.4°C! Klaus Hager
@An Ciarraioch, your anecdotal opinion on climate is not exactly scientific , climate always changes.
Remarkable change in you 63 years? Really?
So 1947, 1963,1976 & 1977 were not extreme years? If a slight increase in temprature is in fact global warming then I’m all for it. Anyway, as soon as it does warm up we won’t have to burn as much oil and gas to warm our homes so it is all good really!
@Jack Delaney, I can give better anecdotal evidence than our friend for 47, 63, etc and recall going up to Blessington in 63 where the snow reached the phone wires and the army Auster plane was dropping fodder to sheep :-)
BTW the records show that 1934 was the warmest decade in the last 100 but NASA/GISS seem to have misplaced the data when the ecoloon Hansen retired.
Uncle Mort, you just prompted my memory of 1963 because although I was a small boy I do recall that Christmas, on a vist to relatives in the countryside, getting stuck in snow. My uncle had just purchased a new MF 35 tractor the year before and came to rescue us by towing the car to his yard. I think that 1973 was also a funny year when we lost a 200 year old tree from wind in early January of that year.
Yes Jack – We won’t have to Worry ? – most of our homes will be under water ??????????
You’ll need more oil Jack, if the temperature goes up the Gulf Stream will slow down and our weather will be closer to Canada’s
Always worth familarising oneself with a new religion. The Church of Global Warming has its dogma (“97% of scientists yadadada”) , its Prophets (Michael Mann, Al Gore), its Priests (Climate (ahem) “scientists”), Its Holy Books (IPCC annual reports). It preaches that sinning will result in damnation. etc etc etc – you get the drift. Basically its all bollox.
As I said above hours ago, in before the tinfoil hat brigade.
Insult is the scraping of the bottom of the barrel
The tinfoil hat brigade are the ones who dont even understand the first thing about the 2nd law of Thermodynamics but lecture to others on “globull warming”.
Do us all a favour Robin – go and borrow a book on physics please.
Global warming is just another excuse for more carbon tax
Most sensible comment yet.
Very very very very very very sensible comment
Man made climate change is a fact. Climate change deniers fall into the category of evolution deniers. Scientists overwhelmingly agree and the evidence comes from a multiplicity of sources, peer reviewed articles and so on. Thankfully intelligent people understand this.
However, reversing this and acting on it, of course, are 2 different things. However it doesn’t help having people who don’t understand the basics of how to determine reality from fiction. The usual reference to articles in bogus journals rather than esteemed journals subjected to peer reviews.
It is an arms race now between science backed by political will embarking on solutions to negate the warming amongst the depletion of biodiversity and the impact of long term climate change effecting a tipping point. Long odds in my view that correction will happen in time.
What is it exactly that the 97% of ‘climate scientists’ agree?
PS no warming for how many years now?
Currently standing at zero years there, Mort.
As the article title, and all the science, clearly indicates.
I wonder how did the British grow grapes in the 1400s?
Satellite measurement shows that September 2014 was a mere 0.195°C above normal, at least 7 or 8 other satellite-era years were warmer, such as 2003.
There are several so-called reliable measurements of global temperatures and all you see these people doing that are making, screaming and yelling of the hottest temperature ever, is using one of the least reliable datasets. Their very own NCEP reanalysis shows something very different. So, again, there’s a lot of controversy in this. And what happens is that they scream this stuff out, and then they walk it back.” When alarmist climate institutes roll out papers claiming global warming is going to cause severely cold winters, then you have to wonder if they know something is up and are acting preemptively to salvage their crumbling climate science, which not long ago predicted with high confidence balmy snowless winters.
In 2000 a leading UK climate change “scientist” said that the babies of the day will never see snow in their lives on UK soil. Yawn.
2014 was NOT the hottest year on record (in Ireland)
http://irishenergyblog.blogspot.ie/2015/02/2014-was-not-hottest-year-on-record-in.html
The hottest year in 218 years – on a planet that is 4,000,000,000 years old.
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