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TESTING FOR THE coronavirus has been a key part of measures to track transmission and prevent the spread of the virus.
With the government bringing the entire country under Level 3 restrictions from tonight, and health officials warning a move to Level 4 or even Level 5 is still on the horizon, the testing regime will have to be robust to drive down transmission.
There has been an increase in testing and the HSE has said it plans to increase capacity in Ireland to 100,000 per week. Additional lab capacity to expand on this 100,000 tests per week will continue to be available in Germany if required.
Some posts being shared on social media in recent weeks have claimed there has been a recent increase in Covid-19 cases in Ireland because there has been an increase in testing.
It is a familiar claim, frequently used by US President Donald Trump, who has regularly blamed the rate of testing in the US for surges in coronavirus cases. This was despite evidence that the virus was spreading widely through many communities.
We’ve looked at whether an increase in testing in Ireland results in an increase in the number of positive cases – it doesn’t – and whether increased testing skews data on transmission levels.
Dr Cillian de Gascun, director of the National Virus Reference Laboratory, has said Ireland’s positivity rate – the percentage of people tested that week who receiveed a positive result – has increased from 2.9% last week to 3.9% this week. This is despite an increase in the level of testing.
“The positivity rate has increased dramatically in the last few weeks,” he told TheJournal.ie.
“The positivity rate gives you an indication of transmission levels. Ideally we’d like to be testing more and for the positivity rate to either stay the same or decline because that means you’re chasing down the virus.”
Back at the end of March this year, some 30,213 tests had been carried out in laboratories across the country.
The positivity rate the week ending 31 March was 15%, having risen in one week from 6%.
This followed a change in the case definition, which restricted availability to patients with at least two symptoms and prioritised groups such as frontline healthcare workers, older people and those with an underlying condition.
The test and trace system was under pressure and was unable to scale to the larger capacity we have now.
In the first week of April, 12,271 tests were carried out in laboratories, with 2,347 positives and a positivity rate of 19%.
Two weeks later, testing had scaled up to almost 21,000 tests a week with the positivity rate remaining at 19%. And between 20 April and 27 April more than 41,000 tests were carried out, resulting in a positivity rate of 12.9%.
In this case, doubling the amount of testing did not result in a doubling of positive case numbers week-on-week.
In the week 14-20 April, 3,907 positive cases were identified, compared to 3,996 the following week, when the level of testing doubled from 21,000 to 41,000 tests per week.
There has been growing concern in recent weeks about increasing case numbers across the country and in particular in certain counties such as Dublin, Donegal, Cork, Limerick and Galway.
In the last couple of weeks 80,000 to 90,000 tests were completed per week.
Dr de Gascun said it is true to say the testing system is picking up more asymptomatic cases now than it was in March and April, because the testing system back then was targeted towards those showing symptoms.
“At the very beginning of the pandemic, it was based on a history of travel and symptoms, then we moved the travel requirement and it was based on symptoms. At that stage we weren’t testing contacts of cases, which we are now.
“We also hadn’t started the serial testing programme throughout the nursing home sector, direct provision or meat processing plants.”
“Obviously the more testing you do the more cases you’ll find, the reason for testing more is to identify those people who either don’t present for care for whatever reason – no access to healthcare or in a vulnerable group – or to identify people who don’t have symptoms and for that reason they wouldn’t present for care,” he said.
Since the middle of May, Ireland has been testing close contacts of confirmed cases on Day zero and again seven days later.
“That’s where we’re finding quite a lot of cases, in that close contacts of a confirmed case setting,” Dr de Gascun said. “And true to say we wouldn’t have picked all of those individuals up back in March and April.”
He said health officials want to “throw the net broadly” and if they are not finding a significant number of cases it can provide reassurance.
“Our concern now is that we are testing more and because the virus is widespread in the community our testing rate is increasing. As the positivity rate increases, the concern then arises that you may be missing cases.”
He said countries take different approaches in terms of their acceptable threshold for the positivity rate.
“I don’t have an exact figure for the threshold, some take it at 2 or 3% but some would allow it as high as 10%.”
Last week the HSE said the positivity rate in Ireland was 2.9% – this week it has risen to 3.9%. Serial testing in nursing homes, direct provision centres and meat processing plants also dilutes the overall national positivity rate.
The positivity rate in nursing homes last week was 0.17%, in direct provision centres it was 0.53% and in meat plants it was 0.32%. This indicates the positivity rate in the community is higher than the overall 3.9%.
More testing
This evening health officials confirmed 432 new cases of Covid-19 in Ireland, with new positive cases identified in almost every county. 48% of those were associated with outbreaks or were close contacts of a confirmed case. 60 of the 432 have been identified as community transmission.
Dr de Gascun said the current positivity rate suggests “we probably need to be testing more”.
“If we were in the position where everyone was 100% compliant with the public health measures we would probably be able to control this without testing more.
“But in the context of trying to monitor the epidemiology and spread, we would probably need to be testing more to drive that positivity rate back down and give us some confidence.”
Last week HSE CEO Pail Reid said the health service has “re-calibrated the mix” of testing capacity with 100,000 in Ireland per week and a capacity of 2,000 per day in German laboratories.
“It is a good buffer for us should we need to draw on it,” he said.
Dr de Gascun said it would be worrying moving forward if the health service continued to increase testing and the positivity rate remained the same or increased.
“If we increased to 120,000 test per week and the positivity rate didn’t change, you’d be very concerned because then you know a lot of infection out there isn’t being picked up with the 100,000 capacity.
“It’s something the HSE continues to look at, there seems to have been some perception that once we got to 100,000 a week then everything stops, but that’s not case. The idea is to ensure we have sufficient capacity there for whatever testing is required.”
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Ah so you have changed the ‘compulsory volunteering’ article to ‘compulsory helping’, good save Journal ;)
@Free Online Games: were it to happen the journal would spend endless hours on articles about how these kids were having their human rights offended against.
Good idea in theory, but I think the word ‘forced’ is the problem. Maybe having more opportunities in schools/communities to encourage teenagers to take part, especially in TY, would be more appropriate.
How can anyone say yes to this, what’s happened to teenagers Choice? Our teenagers by and large are generous and curtious and far beyond our generation when it comes to charity and environmental needs.
“No Pay, No Way”
@John Declan: hell no, go away
@John Declan: leave the kids alone to be kids, unemployed able bodied people, yes, not kids though
@Thomas Maher: I knew the social welfare would come up somewhere. Maybe the people that destroyed this country and sold us out, gave up our sovereignty and interdependence should do volunteer work to see what it is like for us common folk to work and get no little or no payment.
@Alan Richard Scott: they more than likely had to do work like common folk when starting out and know exactly what it’s like, that’s why they were trying to set themselves up for the rest of their lives, so they didn’t have to go back
Whereas this would be a good idea for the perennial scrounger (not talking about the guy laid off and searching for work for a few months or even a year), the problem is the person that signs on at 18 or thereabouts and spends their life claiming welfare with no intention of signing off and plenty of those people exist
@John Black: not supporting “those who ruined the country”, just pointing out that it would be impossible to implement and would likely be better suited to those on welfare
If they were doing work for charities and such it would become less like welfare and more like a wage for them which is only a good thing
@Alan Richard Scott: nah the people at home doing nothing and being paid should do volunteer work
@Alan Richard Scott: it came up because it makes sense, its good for mental health to have something to do, its good for social skills and itll help in your community. The other people youre talking about have jobs
@John Black: Of course your supporting those who ruined the country, your just deflecting. The well connected comfortable classes might have worked like common jobs while going through college etc but it was never going to be future for that type.
We worked on farms and other menial jobs here in the country years ago but believe me the first thing on the agenda was what it would pay and so it should be.
The idea that you will be rewarded for your effort is much better than knowing you will get nothing don’t you think.
@Thomas Maher: if your making them do it then how is it voluntary? In other words its unpaid work. I’m a volunteer myself and I love it.
@Jointheclubtoo: I’m not deflecting at all, you missed my point entirely.
I was taking the topic back on track to what it was about when someone was making a general comment aimed at those who ruined the country that added nothing to the conversation.
Please point out where I said I was in favour of unpaid work? I have several comments under this article being completely against this idea.
In future, please read comments before replying.
@Anthony: can you say with 100% certainly that the majority of people on social welfare are frauds and dont want to work because they expect others to fork out the bill. Plenty of good honest hard working people out there who want to work. Dont forget plenty of people like yourself before the crash had good jobs and had your attitude regarding the social welfare. Now when the crash happened they unfortunately lost their jobs and no choice but to go on social welfare to help themselves. I however do think social welfare should not be a career and only short term (longer term for those that actually need it signed of by qualified medical practitioner). Just have a bit of respect for those that are trying their best to contribute. Because tomorrow is a new day
Never mind people on social welfare, our country is full of little imbeciles on suspended sentences. Put them out to work. Will give them less time to work towards their next conviction.
@Alan Richard Scott: The country is at full employment. No shortage of jobs unless you are fussy or just don’t want to work.
@Seamus Mac: I work
@Alan Richard Scott: i never said you didn’t.
While it’s amazing to help people. Forcing someone to help another is not going to make them want to help people.
Dead right! A year of public service rather than military service should be compulsory for our ‘snowflake generation’ Harden ‘em up a bit, do something socially constructive and see off all these ‘influencers’ and navel gazers.
@silentbob2012: unpaid labour? If the shoe were on the other foot you’d be crying foul!
Any work should be paid, it’s only right
And the “snowflakes generation” is a tag attached to millennials, the youngest of which are now adults. Granted I can’t see the generation below that being much better but you have to give them a chance and more importantly, realise that slave labour isn’t a way of fixing it
@silentbob2012: what about teenagers without the ability to get to places? Should they be punished for being unable to fulfill these requirements through no fault of their own?
I grew up with 2 working parents, and no access to more than one bus every hour or so. I wouldn’t have been able to spend time volunteering after school, because if I wasn’t in supervised study, I was in the library waiting for one of my parents. We couldn’t afford a third car, so how would I have gotten anywhere? There are 2 charity shops where I grew up, and maybe 3 care facilities in the wider area… and about 2000 teens. How do you accommodate that volume of forced “volunteering” with that little available? In my experience, you didn’t get a job in the town unless you were related to a staff member, or your parents had been friends since childhood. And not everyone has those connections – I didn’t.. I spent summers picking fruit from age 14 because I didn’t have enough ties to the place I had lived in for 13 years.
@John Black: if it’s compulsory unpaid labour, the teens who would never volunteer for the work just won’t do it. Or if they’re in a service type role, they’ll cause headaches by not taking the work seriously/creating more work for employees. Terrible idea.
@Tadhg: exactly right! anyone who thinks this idea is good is seriously deluded
@silentbob2012: so let’s assume you are 35 for arguments sake. Let’s further assume that they bring in a law that at age 36 every one must spend a year doing national service. How would you feel about it then?
I grew up in an era when you cut the grass for a neighbour or went to the shops swept their drive way in was for a few pence but it brought you closer as a neighbourhood.
@Jack: would you have done it if you didn’t get a few pence?
@Jack: and this idea would stop the hard working teenager from having any time to do work like this that would enable them to save up for something
@eoin carroll: life lessons Eoin do work get paid my point is i knew all my neighbours and with that come helping with groceries ect, the non payment help.
@John Black: ah John i don’t agree with forced but insensitive.. if i came across as kids should be forced i apologise.
@Jack: exactly jack , and i think a wider issue should be brought to the debate – exactly what facilities are provided to the teens these days – the youth clubs of the 80s are no longer flourish – community spirit is lacking – we have a more inward / selfish society generally where not just teens but neighbours dont know each other – fresh thinking for younger irish people is badly needed imo..we have an old fashioned view on things like motor races where the only outlet for young lads into cars are illegal – insurance is out of reach and apprenticeships are not plentiful at all – the local GAA is great for lads into sport but a lot of teens need more than that – the lack of music clubs . modern version of youth clubs . and activity are very very slim pickings – we leave them to dabble in drink in the fields and try arrange ‘raves’ and police the shit out of them trying cannabis when in truth we dont actually offer much by way of alternatives – volunteerring is a start but some creative thinking is badly needed for to shift how we manage the teens in ireland – they are learning how to code at 15 in north korea – we still have them learning irish and religion ……much much more in apprenticeships (like ~germany etc ) could be a great roadmap to start reforming.
If on the dole yes it should be compulsory
Should be compulsory for TD’s.
They’ll be working long enough. Let kids be kids while they can.
If you think teens should be forced into work without pay, then lead by example and do the same.
If it’s not something you will not do yourself, then can’t expect to then force others to do it.
Maybe for a set period during the summer holidays. There are only upsides from teenagers engaging, interacting and supporting their own communities. “Ask not what your country can do for you..”
Most in favour I’d imagine have left their youth far behind, a case of spite mixed with envy.
This amounts to forced labour.
Maybe suburban kids have plenty of time on their hands (I don’t know) but I do know many kids who already work on family farms, in family run businesses etc. Why should they ‘volunteer’ their services when they have little enough free time as it is?
Let kids be kids, they’ll be downtrodden taxpayers for long enough.
Forced labour and ghettos … GO GO FFG…
@Willy: You do realise its the head of Bernardos trying to flog this idea.
Yeah right and later lawyers demanding a tribunal and eventually compinsation for breaching their human rights. Let’s keep it simple and ask them to try not bully each other.
Should be compulsory for Politicans
Wow, so many people seem to have forgotten our recent history of forcing young people to work for no payment. Perhaps Barnados would like to open a few laundries they could work in, the mind boggles at the stupidity of this.
Most teenagers I know are great people, many involved in community volunteering and many doing a great deal of charity and community based work during their transition year. Bloody hell, leave the kids alone.
No.
What a bad idea. Forced…compulsory….required….not words that should be associated with giving something back to your community.
How about as families we work together with our teenagers to look for ways to help out. Clean-up crews, water stations at a marathon, parade stewards, coaching…there are a million ways that we as parents can set the example in this.
But forced labour? No thank you.
Take the V out of voluntary. How many who voted yes are “safely” past that age?
@saoirse janneau: oluntary???
@Eoin Fahy: bus pass??
Opps didnt see forced labour..thats a no.
Work experience as transition year students yes
What would happen to a teen who refused to do it? If there was a penalty it amounts to compulsory enforcement. That is unconstitutional in my opinion.
I apologise for the long winded post, but this poll and proposal from @journal_ie is so preposterously idiotic and hypocritical it warrants it. 60% of Journal readers voted that it should be compulsory for young people to volunteer. Would this same 60% be voters for Fine Gael or Fianna Fail, parties whose ideology is about self enrichment, above all else, including the social good or the concept of volunteerism? How an adult in contemporary, neoliberal Ireland can actually eulogise that young people should be forced to volunteer actually beggars belief. The entire political system Irish adults have endorsed privileges the individual over everything else; we want tax cuts when over 3000 children are homeless. We want to drive SUV’s when climate change is reaching existential proportions. We want, we want, we want, yet we complain that our young people should give more? We wonder why they don’t *apparently care about others? Newsflash: They didn’t pick it up off the ground. Society shapes our young through our actions and our example. So how about leading by example and actually showing young people through our actions and not dictation? How about voting out self centred politicians who are happy to let children live out their childhoods in hotels? How about voting out parties that want to give you and I tax cuts rather than explaining to the nation what those tax cuts cost in terms of human suffering of the young, the elderly, the vulnerable? How about the adults of Ireland take some ownership for how we perceive young people to be and stop looking for scapegoats? If you feel young people don’t care enough about others, or the society in which they live, what about taking a long look in the mirror and seeing how much you care, truly care. Then you can lecture young people.
Many young people do good volunteering. To be admired and appreciated.
Absolutly.
My mam went to a computer course & transition year students helped her use computera and mobile phone. Teenagers need to learn respect of there elders & not think the world owes them a favour. Great idea.
@Louise Ryan: unpaid work outside of school is a bad idea, slave labour is never a good idea, those computer courses are ran during school time and are voluntary (at least from what I know), not mandatory for students.
In my time I’ve met more self entitled disrespectful elders that think the world owes them something than I have met disrespectful teenagers
Yeah it’s a good idea. A whole year is too long though.
Lol force the work shy to spend some time helping the community they live off. Not the sick not the elderly not the people who really want a job but can’t find one. The fella you know who has never worked a day in his life.
If this were possible without young people’s labour being taken advantage of then I think it’d be a great learning experience and add some life perspective to education.
Unfortunately I think it’d wind up exploitative like jobbridge
This country is becoming more and more like a communist dictatorship!
@Josh Hanners: No it is a dictatorship.
Give them an incentive. Say certain hours worked goes towards their Leaving Cert Points. Put a cap on the hours according to age. Giving them a say in what they do will have more coming forward. That way it gets rid of the notion of slave labour and they can put work experience down on their cvs.
@James Kilbane: Giving them a say on where they do their compulsory work is still forced (slave) labour.
I am all for volunteering but when you make it compulsory it becomes, by definition, forced labour.
Encouraged yes, facilitated yes, but forced no. Offer a carrot but no stick. It could be very good on a CV for instance.
@Joseph Barrett Flannery: Its bad enough they’ll be paying back a massive national debt they had no part in creating for the rest of their long working lives. Surely that’s enough national service!
I’m assuming those demanding this will like to tell us about their perfect childhoods, in which they were glorious little angels, that went around volunteering without being asked………never mind teenagers and young people, plenty of so called adults should also be stepping up as well
Great idea. If serving others is the meaning of life, why not get the practice in early.
“Education is not the filling of a pail, but the lighting of a fire.”
@John McAuliffe: unpaid labour?
I think society had lots of this in the past before they decided that perhaps it wasn’t so nice to the poor workers
This is an excellent idea; kids are already forced to do work experience in transition year. However, I can’t wait to see how our illustrious insurance industry gets their claws on this and no doubt exploits it.
@Smidgen Dublin: I don’t see how they could do something worse than how bad this idea is already
Wasn’t slave labour abolished years ago?
That’s voluntold ‘em!
A national service style but with the emphasis on teaching them a trade or engineering
A mandatory year of civic based national service for school leavers who don’t go on to further education, and are unlucky enough not to be able to find a job when we’re at full employment, is an excellent idea
Great free labour ,slave labour.
@Michael Maher: A lot of companies now offer give back days, for example i was recently speaking with a friend who works in a tech company i will not name. They offer there employees a full 40 hours of community service / give back per year, so essentially a full week that is fully paid… A lot of people use it to help out charities etc etc. It has nothing to do with free labor but giving people an opportunity to develop people skills, and to give a little to help charities etc…
This way they won’t have any PRSI credits for at least a year. If they have an illness in the following year, while working, surely they won’t have any safety net at all, given that the previous year was unpaid? Unless they can apply to have credits reckoned for community work?
It should be mandatory for the following
1. Leaving Cert 1 hour per week during final two years of school
2. Student Grant 30 hours per annum during college attendance
3. Unemployment Payments 3 hours per week during receipt of payment
4. Automatically added to custodial sentence for petty crime and misdemeanour drug offences 50 hours per annum for 3 years
5. Entry into Diplomatic Service, Garda or Cadetships in Defence Forces, service done for Leaving cert can be utilised as 50% of this requirement.
Yes, bring back slavery great idea, we’ll even break it up into a neat little list.
Mandatory work for no payment is immoral and wrong on every level and there is no justification.
@: what about people who don’t have the ability to travel somewhere for the sake of an hour a week, during 2 very important school years?
I did supervised study 5 days a week after school for both years of the LC cycle, meant that I wasn’t home until half 6 at least.. then had to help with dinner, eat dinner, tidy up afterwards, and do more study, (with one or two programs allowed a week), before heading to bed at 10pm. Saturdays were spent between study/homework, and helping out around the house.. Sundays were spent home alone to give more time to study, whilst my parents went out for the day.. so i had no way of getting anywhere on a sunday, the only day of the week i could have feasibly done anything..
Everybody should have to do it! why limit it to the young, they’re not the problem, it’s the old who are ruining their future society.
@thesaltyurchin: No argument there. But there’s no “have to” about it.
@thesaltyurchin: Sorry, I meant to add that if it’s mandatory, the only people being oppressed here are those with no vote. I wouldn’t argue that we should all “have to” either. Certainly it shouldn’t be compulsory for anyone. But teenagers without votes might be pressured into it more easily. It would be different if incentives were offered. If they can’t think of any, making it obligatory is a despicable failure of imagination.
Perhaps it might help the minister to employ yellow pack soldiers paid yellow pack wages , instead of paying those already serving a proper wage and not have the in the Q. at the social welfare office seeking money for food to feed their families .
Depends, are they going to be forced to help out at abortion clinics? Would be better to encourage young people to help out charities of their choice than conscripting them.
If it leavers the teens away from the scourge/addiction and noose the is the Unsocial/SnapGramParty Apps the yes, I was always a Firm No for compulsory service, But this last year has changed my mind.
Irish kids coming up now run the risk of becoming Social Vegetables by the time they are adults, Take them away please-No Phones allowed.
A lot of companies now offer give back days, for example i was recently speaking with a friend who works in a tech company i will not name. They offer there employees a full 40 hours of community service / give back per year, so essentially a full week that is fully paid… A lot of people use it to help out charities etc etc
It is called public service. “think not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country”
have your say