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Trump with his big chart Alamy

The numbers on Trump's big tariff board: where did he pull them from and are they accurate?

Spoiler: They are not.

LAST NIGHT, DONALD Trump upended the global trade order as he stood in the Rose Garden of the White House. 

Holding a chart with a list of countries and the tariffs the United States will be charging them, he claimed that the European Union charges tariffs of 39% on goods imported from the US. 

He said the US will charge 20% tariffs on European Union imports in return.

“We’re charging them essentially half,” he said, saying the “reciprocal tariff” is 39%.

“They’re very tough, very, very tough traders. You think of European Union, very friendly. They rip us off. It’s so sad to see. It’s so pathetic.”

How did he come to this 39% figure though, and is it accurate? 

The short answer is no, it is not.

At the top of Trump’s big chart of countries, it says that the figures representing the tariffs charged to the US include “currency manipulation and trade barriers”.

It is not clear what these terms include.

Immediately after his announcement last night, most economic commentators were scratching their heads over how he arrived at these figures.

The EU’s average tariff rate on US exports does not come close to the 39% figure claimed by Trump.

The World Trade Organization says the EU’s average tariff rate is 5%, while the European Commission says the average tariff on goods traded between the EU and the U.S. is about 1% for both sides.

The EU does impose significant tariffs of over 30% on some agricultural products such as dairy, but the weighted average tariff on US goods comes in at around 3%.

In the hours afterwards, it became clear how Trump had calculated his 39% – it all comes down to trade deficits. 

Each country’s new tariff rate appears to be based on a formula that takes the trade deficit that America runs with that country and divides it by the exports that country sends to the US. 

Then this figure, the final “tariff” number, was cut in half – this is why Trump said he was being “kind”.

This was first pointed out by James Surowiecki, a financial writer, in a post on X.

“So we have a $17.9 billion trade deficit with Indonesia. Its exports to us are $28 billion. $17.9/$28 = 64%, which Trump claims is the tariff rate Indonesia charges us. What extraordinary nonsense this is,” Surowieki writes. 

Following this, deputy White House press secretary Kush Desai published the methodology behind the calculations in a post on X

Although Desai claims that Surowiecki’s analysis is wrong, his post essentially confirms that the formula used by the White House is based on the US trade deficit with a country and then divided by the country’s exports. 

Responding to Desai’s post, Surowiecki said it was “truly amazing”.

“The Deputy White House Press Secretary is claiming that I’m wrong, and that the ‘tariff rates’ on Trump’s chart were calculated by ‘literally’ measuring every country’s tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers,” he wrote.

He continued: “To prove it, he screenshots the formula the USTR says was used to calculate the reciprocal tariffs we imposed on other countries. And when you back out the Greek symbols, what is that formula? Trade deficit/imports – exactly what I said it was.

“I don’t know if the Deputy Press Secretary was misinformed, or is just being misleading. Either way, the Trump administration did not ‘literally calculate tariff and non tariff barriers’ to determine the tariff rates it’s imposing on other countries. As I said, it divided our trade deficit with a country by our imports with that country, and then multiplied by 0.5 (because Trump was being “lenient”).”

Separately, a White House official confirmed to reporters during a press briefing that the formula used was based on trade deficits.

The official said that the figures were calculated by the Council of Economic Advisers and that the model was based on “the concept that the trade deficit that we have with any given country is the sum of all trade practices, the sum of all cheating”.

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    Mute Aasif
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    Jan 24th 2014, 11:49 AM

    Absolutely Comical i love this country

    427
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    Mute Montys Moonshine
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    Jan 24th 2014, 12:08 PM

    It would be comical if it wasn’t so tragic and indicative of the country we live in. 100 grand of licence payers money wasted.

    312
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    Mute Enola Straight
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    Jan 24th 2014, 12:13 PM

    Comedy Central. WTF planet are these clown living on?

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    Mute Pete Foley
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    Jan 24th 2014, 12:29 PM

    They could save a lot more by scraping the rte guide it’s crap.

    261
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    Mute piohmy
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    Jan 24th 2014, 12:51 PM

    Not a bad saving, how much would the state save if it was to get rid of the 20% discount the esb gives to all its staff on their own domestic electricity bill..

    224
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    Mute Winston Teardrops
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    Jan 24th 2014, 12:54 PM

    Plenty of laughs here to enjoy. First off – a magazine to tell you what’s on the telly. In 2014? Second, posting that magazine to the folks who work/were working in the telly station. And finally the coup de grace – this distrubution generates overhead of €100,000!

    117
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    Mute Andrew Hickey
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    Jan 24th 2014, 1:39 PM

    @pete foley.

    Stupid narrow mined simplistic comment.
    People far afield from RTE have jobs that depend on titles like the rte guide, like printers couriers etc.
    It’s the highly paid presenters like tubridy finnucane et al that costs the taxpayer not this title.

    30
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    Mute Patrick Gormley
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    Jan 24th 2014, 2:02 PM

    A free copy of the RTE guide, this on top of one of the most generous pensions allocated in this country. Ireland has gone to the dogs.

    72
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    Mute Markonline
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    Jan 24th 2014, 2:02 PM

    If its a commercially viable venture let it stand on its own earnings and pay the printers and couriers etc all they want. If not, then cut costs or shut it down. Since when should taxpayers/tv license money be supporting a magazine that encourages people to sit on their ass and read fictional stories about fictional characters in soaps in the uk.

    63
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    Mute Padraig Ó Murchú
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    Jan 24th 2014, 2:02 PM

    Not much as youd think that would just prompt ESB staff to change to cheaper providers, probably would lose a huge chunk of their clientele, plus the ESB makes a huge profit, what’s the problem with looking after the rank and file which it would affect the most if scrapped.

    19
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    Mute Ryan Carroll
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    Jan 24th 2014, 2:47 PM

    Plenty of companies give the staff a discount I’m sick of hearing the ESB one held up as some sort of oddity, it’s quite normal even corner shops give their staff a discount.

    No what would save the most money would be to get rid of RTE, it would not be missed. At all. Generation Y are all about multimedia players, netflix, Sky+ etc you’ll never be able to sell them on the idea of a tv licence and it’s going to become, as they go into politics and become voters, a key demand of theirs to get rid of it, this new broadcasting charge is being pushed by out of touched dinosaurs it’s not going to stand and it’s not going to work.
    Face it, times have changed, trends have changed, public service broadcasting was always a flawed concept and it needs to go to the place we sent homophobia, sexism, censorship and other stupid policies like prescription condoms and just die.

    27
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    Mute Jason Davis
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    Jan 24th 2014, 2:56 PM

    ESB makes a profit and contributes to the exchequer. So the point is moot. Anyway there has to be some perks to a job.

    17
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    Mute Yvonne Smyth
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    Jan 24th 2014, 10:05 PM

    Yep, have heard it all now!

    4
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    Mute Gerri McCaffery
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    Jan 24th 2014, 10:06 PM

    Sorry, rte is a semi state. The people contributed to their own pension.

    4
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    Mute Ryan Carroll
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    Jan 24th 2014, 10:11 PM

    A discount is not an unreasonable job perk, we just have a nation of people who unlike their collegues in Europe don’t put any effort into solidarity with their fellow middle earners and workers and so mostly outside the public sector there is no unionization and as a result of THAT there are poor benefits there.

    So they begrudge anyone who does have good benefits and security. There are issues of the PS living in a bubble, definitly, but theres also serious begrudgery among those too lazy to join and union and collectivly bargan for a better contract.

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    Mute Kate Ellen Egan
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    Jan 24th 2014, 11:01 PM

    Terrible news altogether , some of those retirees are only on €2000 a week and now the RTE guide is being cruelly snatched …….I feel their pain !!

    6
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    Mute Kate Ellen Egan
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    Jan 24th 2014, 11:05 PM

    Surely they can put their hands in their pockets Andrew ,and buy the guide, thereby looking after the printer etc , who lets face it wouldn’t be on a fraction of the public service gravy

    3
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    Mute stoned.walled
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    Jan 24th 2014, 11:52 AM

    Rte guide circulation falls by 85%

    311
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    Mute Philip King
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    Jan 24th 2014, 11:58 AM

    15% of total print allocated for internal circulation.

    68
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    Mute TheIrishBrain
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    Jan 24th 2014, 6:53 PM

    Does Pat Kenny still get a copy.

    19
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    Mute Michael
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    Jan 24th 2014, 11:52 AM

    They got it free? While we pay huge rates for TV licences. Why am I not surprised, what a country

    174
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    Mute Michael
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    Jan 24th 2014, 11:54 AM

    The question has to be asked, are they paying TV licences?

    190
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    Mute rodrigo detriano
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    Jan 24th 2014, 12:09 PM

    How in gods name are they only breaking even? The quality of their programs is dire. There’s no way they can be spending much money on them. It’s time they were disbanded. We can’t afford to subsidise an imitation broadcaster that’s paying way over the odds to distinctly average staff.

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    Mute Enola Straight
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    Jan 24th 2014, 12:15 PM

    It is beyond time that RTE was made subscription only. Or at the very least end the dual (if not triple) funding.

    66
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    Mute metro101
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    Jan 24th 2014, 12:21 PM

    All pensioners normally have their T.V. licence paid by the state.

    38
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    Mute Qwerty
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    Jan 24th 2014, 1:25 PM

    I say privatise RTE. Scrap TV licences. Keep coverage of the dail public, free and impartial.

    42
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    Mute Ryan Carroll
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    Jan 24th 2014, 6:50 PM

    Hilarious thing is investors would probably have zero interest in a station with no real quality programming that has such insanely overpaid personalities.
    We might be better winding it up

    8
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    Mute Leslie Alan Rock
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    Jan 24th 2014, 11:56 AM

    Make rte a subscription channel. Let us choose if we want it

    112
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    Mute Anton de Buitlear
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    Jan 24th 2014, 12:36 PM

    whats poor gaybo going to use for bog roll now,

    80
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    Mute Michael C Sherlock
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    Jan 24th 2014, 11:54 AM

    Its always the pensionors to get hit with these savage cuts:-):-):-)

    70
    Reg
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    Mute Reg
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    Jan 24th 2014, 11:52 AM

    Good to see that the licence fee of 600 odd people will now be better spent (hopefully)!

    67
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    Mute IrishGravyTrain
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    Jan 24th 2014, 11:54 AM

    Choo Choo

    61
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    Mute Ciaran Morgan
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    Jan 24th 2014, 12:16 PM

    Rte are far from break even, 50% of their income comes directly from tv licence. Patethic!

    57
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    Mute Carcu Sidub
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    Jan 24th 2014, 1:03 PM

    Which means they should only be 50% bias towards the Government of the day & not the 100% that they always have and continue to be.

    26
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    Mute Gerri McCaffery
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    Jan 24th 2014, 10:11 PM

    Dual funding is the norm in most European countries and Ireland still has one of the cheapest TV licences. In the few countries where the licence has been scrapped, PS television is paid for out of central taxation so the public pays in any event.

    3
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    Mute Declan Hourihan
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    Jan 24th 2014, 11:53 AM

    Cant wait for the TV licence inspector to back around……This is farcical typical Ireland…How hasn’t this come up before who is regulating RTE’S finances…..That 100,000 could be put to good use like getting another muck savage incapable of any other form of punditry other than that laced in cliches and eeeerrrraaaaa’s on the sunday game.

    46
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    Mute Animal
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    Jan 24th 2014, 12:06 PM

    The salaries these people are on and they still get a free magazine. Sure we’ll increase the license fee and have the poor man pay for that… Hahaha….. Lovely stuff…!

    44
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    Mute Donal Reynolds
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    Jan 24th 2014, 1:08 PM

    If only rte could produce this level of comedy on their programmes, I wouldn’t mind paying the license !

    38
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    Mute Damian O'Brien
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    Jan 24th 2014, 1:00 PM

    My Father worked in RTE for most of his working life and always received the RTE guide free. Since he died my Mother has continued to get it by post. The pensioners will still get it at a reduced rate. Details will be sent out next week with the last free edition

    37
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    Mute Fran Heavey
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    Jan 24th 2014, 1:25 PM

    Why the hell are current employees getting free copies…..if they wanna know whats on telly,let them feckin find out in work……..or God forbid…..BUY ONE!!!

    35
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    Mute Shakka1244
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    Jan 24th 2014, 1:24 PM

    You have to wonder how many other stupid perks are in place in all state and semi state orgs. Probably thousands of perks that would save hundreds of millions.

    34
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    Mute Ryan Carroll
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    Jan 24th 2014, 2:49 PM

    Like someone being paid 600k for less than 15 hours a week? And you people whinge about ESB salaries…

    17
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    Mute Siobhan McCarthy
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    Jan 24th 2014, 2:46 PM

    Theyll have to buy firelighters now!

    26
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    Mute Róisín Loughrey
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    Jan 24th 2014, 11:53 AM

    Scandalous! There’s going to be people on the streets!

    25
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    Mute Carcu Sidub
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    Jan 24th 2014, 1:00 PM

    What’s the RTÉGuide?

    25
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    Mute Alan Scott
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    Jan 24th 2014, 1:41 PM

    Maybe they could go one better and end the high salary for a lot of the staff

    23
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    Mute sammy woods
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    Jan 24th 2014, 12:44 PM

    I don’t pay tax. I work getting good into hand money. I also collect the dole. Have done since 2008. I also don’t pay t.v licence. Just don’t open your door when people knock. Anybody I care for will ring me if they want me. People of this country are cowards/sheep. Always moan about no money, well I have too much money

    22
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    Mute Right Wing Steve ©
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    Jan 24th 2014, 12:50 PM

    Troll much?

    29
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    Mute Muriel Gowing
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    Jan 24th 2014, 12:51 PM

    Care to give some of your excess money back to the working poor, Sammy?

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    Mute Gerri McCaffery
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    Jan 24th 2014, 10:15 PM

    Self-confessed criminal, Sammy.

    4
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    Mute Diarmuid O'Connor
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    Jan 24th 2014, 1:19 PM

    I’d say they’d save more by sacking the muppet Hector. He’s worse than some regional DJs on local Rural stations.

    22
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    Mute Alan Scott
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    Jan 24th 2014, 1:45 PM

    Just the look of Hector you want to change the channel or switch off cannot stand the sight or sound of him.

    24
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    Mute Markonline
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    Jan 24th 2014, 2:10 PM

    Arrruuuu, arruuuu, arruuuuu, arruuuuu, let yourself goooooooooo

    11
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    Mute Denis Coleman
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    Jan 24th 2014, 2:30 PM

    Revenue Commissioners take note.

    15
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    Mute Michael G O'Reilly
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    Jan 24th 2014, 4:10 PM

    Mmmmmm …..money needed to top up Finucane’s gross salary ?!?!?!?

    13
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    Mute Marko Burns
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    Jan 24th 2014, 2:45 PM

    You’ve got to love how they twisted this to ‘saving’ money to the fact staff were costing them money for years- so in reality 900,000 if it went on for 9 years etc., I’d imagine they got wind someone was going to spill the beans in PR dept and the spinners got spinning.

    As basically a promo rag with listings they should just put it online and leave it at that.

    13
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    Mute Ian O'Donovan
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    Jan 24th 2014, 2:38 PM

    Compared to the Radio Times which has a feedback page to vent, RTE guide is rubbish in comparison.

    13
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    Mute Jason Bourne
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    Jan 24th 2014, 2:21 PM

    Anyone know how much we are paying for thw shows that come from America? Id say way more than other tv stations in europe.

    12
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    Mute John Do
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    Jan 24th 2014, 11:55 AM

    Fret

    12
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    Mute gerbreen
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    Jan 24th 2014, 2:05 PM

    Must be more low hanging fruit so

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    Mute micheal285
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    Jan 24th 2014, 4:03 PM

    Good heavens : what are they going to wipe their asses with now ???

    9
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    Mute Proinnsias O'Keeffe
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    Jan 24th 2014, 5:29 PM

    Given that many of the people that are broadcasting on RTE, think Gay Byrne, Jimmy McGee etc are already pensioners and still employed, will the still get their free RTE Guide?

    8
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    Mute Ina Smidiríní
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    Jan 24th 2014, 3:03 PM

    Oh my god

    7
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    Mute Gerard Tuohy
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    Jan 24th 2014, 6:11 PM

    jesus fcuking christ is there no end to the BS in this country !!!!!!!

    6
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    Mute Dave O Halloran
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    Jan 24th 2014, 5:23 PM

    Just paid my tv license last week , feel justified my licence fee is being well spent , ffs . This country is being screwed from the core

    5
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    Mute 'Bull' Mick Daly
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    Jan 24th 2014, 7:00 PM

    Whats a tv license??

    2
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