FURTHER CASES OF the Indian coronavirus variant have been identified in parts of the United Kingdom, with 86 local authorities now reporting five or more confirmed cases.
And given previous experiences with variants of concern being imported to Ireland from Great Britain, it’s likely that authorities in Dublin are monitoring the situation closely.
UK Health Secretary Matt Hancock told the House of Commons yesterday that while the B1617.2 variant seemed more transmissible, the evidence suggests vaccines are effective against it.
Hancock said the variant had become the dominant strain in parts of the North West of England.
A range of measures are being taken to tackle its spread, including accelerating second doses of vaccines for people over 50 and the clinically vulnerable, he added.
Localised lockdowns also appear to be on the table.
Public health experts have also described the growing numbers of cases linked to the variant in Ireland as a concern, although its prevalence is still much lower than in the United Kingdom.
How many cases have been detected in the UK?
Hancock told the Commons there were now 2,323 confirmed cases of B1617.2 in the UK – of which 483 were in Bolton and Blackburn with Darwen, where it is now the dominant strain. Bedford is the next biggest area of concern.
His statement comes after data from Public Health England (PHE) published on Thursday showed a steep rise in cases associated with B1617.2, which has been designated as a “variant of concern”, from 520 last week to 1,313.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson has previously said the variant could pose a “serious disruption to our progress” coming out of lockdown.
It now accounts for almost 30% of the sequenced samples in the UK (that is, samples of the virus on which further analysis is carried out, rather than simply being used to provide a positive test result).
How many cases have been detected in Ireland?
Dr Cillian De Gascun, head of the National Virus Reference Laboratory, told last Friday’s Nphet briefing that 41 cases of B1617.2 have been identified so far in Ireland.
There have also been 20 cases of B1617.1 identified – a sub-lineage of the Indian variant – but is of less concern (and for those keeping notes, there’s also B1617.3, but that has not been detected in Ireland).
“B1617.2 is the one that we’re more concerned about at the moment based on experience in India and in the UK,” De Gascun said.
“And indeed, actually, the fact that it’s 41 in Ireland over the last couple of weeks would be a concern for us as well.”
Four cases have been so far identified as community transmission, and one is under investigation. Enhanced public health measures are now underway to ensure that community transmission of this variant doesn’t become widespread.
Is the UK surge leading to more hospital admissions and deaths?
Hancock said that in Blackburn, hospital admissions were “stable”, with eight people currently in hospital with Covid.
In Bolton, 19 people were in hospital with coronavirus – the majority of whom were eligible for a vaccine but had not received one, he added.
Blackburn with Darwen’s director of public health Professor Dominic Harrison has said rising cases are unlikely to lead to increased deaths and hospital admissions but that the situation will be monitored daily.
While the available Covid vaccines are overwhelmingly effective in preventing serious illness, it is possible for someone who is fully vaccinated to develop a mild illness from any strain.
Will it impact the UK’s reopening plans?
The surge of the variant prompted yesterday’s easing of restrictions around indoor visits and physical contact to come with a warning from Johnson that a “heavy dose of caution” was needed.
When asked if localised lockdowns are being considered, he cited the use of surge testing and surge tracing but added that “the public would want us to rule nothing out”.
Cabinet minister George Eustice still wants the June 21 measures, which would see most remaining restrictions scrapped, to go ahead but said: “We can never rule out that there may have to be a delay.”
Asked whether it was possible for parts of the country to enjoy new freedoms on June 21 while others are kept under restrictions, Mr Eustice said:
“That would be an option, and we cannot rule anything out, obviously, at this stage.”
Are similar measures being considered in Ireland?
In response to questions from The Journal at last week’s Nphet briefing, Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan said: “When we’ve had the need to, in the past, take specific measures against specific variants, we’ve done that.
“Some of the arrangements are in place in terms of travel are a perfect example of that.”
De Gascun added: “I don’t think will be unreasonable to implement public health measures on a basis to allow us to seek more information, whether that’s enhance testing or enhanced contact tracing.”
Both stressed that this is a hypothetical situation at present.
Is the Indian variant more transmissible or resistant to vaccines?
There some evidence to suggest it is more transmissible, but it’s not clear to what extent.
The UK’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) has said there is a “realistic possibility” that the Indian coronavirus variant could be as much as “50% more transmissible” than the Kent or B117 strain.
The Kent strain was already 50% or 70% more transmissible than previous strains.
But, at present, there is no evidence the B1617.2 variant is resistant to current vaccines.
Hancock said that early laboratory data from Oxford University corroborated the evidence from Bolton Hospital and the initial observational data from India that vaccines are effective against this variant.
Sir John Bell, Oxford’s regius professor of medicine, said the result of lab experiments investigating whether the vaccine neutralises the Indian variant “looks ok”.
“It’s not perfect, but it’s not catastrophically bad,” he told Times Radio, adding there is only “a slight reduction in the ability to neutralise the virus”.
What is being done in the UK?
Mr Hancock said the Government had “surged in” its rapid response team to Bolton and Blackburn, with a team of 100 people visiting around 35,000 people to distribute and collect tests.
He also said six new testing units had been installed, 50 new vaccinators brought in and two new vaccination centres opened, and extended the opening hours and capacity of existing sites.
Over the weekend, the rate of vaccination in Bolton quadrupled, with 6,200 people getting the jab.
Boris Johnson told a Downing Street press conference last week that second doses – which give people maximum protection against Covid-19 – will also be brought forward from the planned 12-week interval to eight weeks.
First doses are also being prioritised for anyone eligible who has not yet come forward, including the over-40s.
Prof Whitty said local “surge vaccinations”, which would make first doses more widely available by offering them to all over-18s, was not being pursued because there is a “finite” supply of doses and that younger people were at less risk from the virus.
What more can be done to stop the spread in Ireland?
It can take roughly two weeks for a sample of the coronavirus to be sequenced in Ireland to determine what variant it is.
However, specially adapted PCR tests have been developed, which allow for variants of concern like those first identified in Brazil and South African to be identified within 24 hours.
Once these become available for the Indian strain – and work at an international level is ongoing in that regard – it will assist health authorities in dampening down any outbreaks.
India is on Ireland’s mandatory hotel quarantine list, but it’s not known how many cases of the variant have been detected in these facilities.
- With reporting by Nicky Ryan
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