@Toomasu Sumitsu: If the US don’t have a reason then they will invent one.

@Toomasu Sumitsu: Completely agree. The US have a strong hand to play and China has too much of a stranglehold on the world economy for too long.

@Barry Somers: “nobody wins in a trade war”. It’s not about winning the trade war but using the leverage the US has, the massive trade deficit, to get the Chinese to the table and engage seriously. The trade imbalance means it’ll hurt China more than it’ll hurt the US.

@Toomasu Sumitsu: You might want to educate yourself with a little global history, and read about China’s 100 Years of Shame, the Opium Wars, the Nanking Masssacre, etc. I’d start a book called The Silk Roads by Peter Frakopan. The West has been plundering other nations for hundreds of years, keeping them from developing and evolving.

@Toomasu Sumitsu: the Chinese and Germans largely provided the capital that fuelled the American economic growth. If the Chinese decide to recall all the gold that they are owed by the USA(far more than exists on the planet), the American (and probably the worlds) economy would tank.
Trump is playing with fire here.

@Toomasu Sumitsu: If the US don’t have a reason then they’ll invent one. They have a good proven record in that.

@Toomasu Sumitsu: Leverage? Over (unelected) President for Life Xi? You’re having a laugh lad. Firstly the Chinese hold over $1 Trillion in US Treasury Bonds. If they are willing to take a hit there they can force the Fed to increase interest rates again, which Trump hates.

Secondly the Balance of Trade swings both ways in this scenario. While China has more goods to which tariffs can be applied that simply means that American business and people have to pay tariffs on more stuff than Chinese people do.

Thirdly they can stop buying US Agri Imports since the only reason they ever bothered with them in the first place was as part previous deals to artificially reduce the trade imbalance. There is no need whatsoever for them to import American Soybeans half way across the world, for example. So they can stop entirely, which will bankrupt certain farmers, who tend to be Trump loyalists.

The examples go on and on. Xi can hurt Trump badly in a political sense by targeting their actions against his base, Trump has no way to answer that. All he can do is charge his own people more for buying Chinese stuff. It’s a dumb strategy, devoid of any nuance or ability to apply any actual strategic pressure.

@Fin: “The west has been plundering other nations for hundreds of years”. And how is this relevant? I’m aware China has a chip on their shoulder due to the 100 Years of Shame but they’re still rational actors who will act in their best interest. And the Rape of Nanjing was carried out by the Japanese. A few trade concessions is hardly equivalent to any of this.

@John: Some fair points. The vulnerability of a democracy compared to essentially a dictatorship is worrying. Russia know this too. Instead of making broad actions against a country they can make targeted ones that target a leader’s base and harm them politically. It would be ironic if Trump lost the next election due to the Chinese. However, the fact the Chinese are buying something they don’t need as part of a previous deal shows they’re willing to look at the bigger picture. I’m not entirely sure how holding US bonds gives the Chinese leverage, can you explain that further? Americans do need to pay more for Chinese goods, which does have a feedback into their economy. But of course this is in the context of US manufacturing being decimated by outsourcing. The status quo can’t continue.

@Toomasu Sumitsu: widespread use of Indonesia as a middle man for importation of Chinese steel to USA. Tarrifs like this simply don’t work, as history attests too. Its simply more ill thoughtout populace rhetoric- id take the “bureaucrats” in Brussels managing our trade any day

@Toomasu Sumitsu: I think what he meant was for you to have some basic understanding of how Chinese people think and what they have been through that made them think such way. From so you might understand better why China retaliate when there are huge tariffs dropped on their heads

@Fin: True but many Chinese companies especially in the tech space do not play fair and were largely started off the back of stolen intellectual property from mainly US companies, for example stolen code. These companies are protected and in many cases directly supported by the Chinese government making it very unfair and difficult for companies in other international markets to compete. The Chinese do need to be taken down a peg or two in this regard.