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A new Ireland? A look at the numbers behind the marriage equality and abortion votes

Just how similar were the two votes?

LAST WEEK THE Irish public voted overwhelmingly to repeal the Eighth Amendment. Just over three years before that there was another large win, this time for same-sex marriage.

Both social issues were passed with huge majorities, nearly two-to-one in the case of marriage equality and just over two-to one in the case of abortion.

The margin of win and the similarity of the vote in either case have led some to suggest that Ireland has become decidedly progressively liberal on social issues.

Ireland abortion lawsYes campaigners celebrate the Yes vote in Dublin Castle.Source: PA Images

So how close were the two votes?

Well, in terms of the overall percentage vote they could certainly be described as similar.

The yes vote for marriage equality was 62.07% and for the repeal of the Eighth Amendment it was 66.4%. 

Referendums that offer a binary choice can often produce results that are very close so anything above 60% to one side is usually approaching landslide terrority.

To give some context, the UK Brexit vote was 52%-48% in favour of Leave and can clearly be classed as a tight vote. The Scottish Independence referendum in 2014 was 55%-45% and so is considered a clear win but short of a landslide.

Both Irish votes can therefore be considered big wins. And if we are to take 60% as being a kind of baseline figure for a 'landslide', more constituencies got that title this year than was the case three years ago.

20180530_Yes_Vote Statista Statista

What about turnout?

Turnout in both referendums was well above average as well. Turnout for the marriage equality referendum was 60.5%, the highest turnout for 16 previous referendum days stretching back to 1995 when Ireland voted on divorce.

Last week's referendum was even larger with a turnout of 64.13%. All three bumper turnouts suggest that Irish people will come out to vote on social issues.

In last week's vote, 36 constituencies out of 40 had a higher turnout than 2015. The four constituencies with a lower turnout were Carlow-Kilkenny, Dublin Central, Dublin Bay South* and Limerick city.

By constituency

In each referendum, only one constituency dissented from the rest of the country in how they voted. In 2015, Roscommon-South Leitrim voted no while this year Donegal voted no.

It means that only two counties voted differently than they did last time and again points to similarities between the two votes.

In fact, of the top five constancies that went no last week, three of them were also nos in 2015.

20180530_No_Votes Statista Statista

*Dublin Bay South did not exist in 2015, but it was made up of Dublin South East with parts of Dublin South Central, both of which had a higher turnout in 2015 than Dublin Bay South did this year.

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    Mute Michele Milne
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    Oct 30th 2024, 3:24 PM

    Horrendous rest in peace and condolences to their families

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    Mute Jill Jill
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    Oct 30th 2024, 3:43 PM

    Some really shocking images! Condolences to all. Respect and strength to the rescue teams, I hope you all make it home x

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    Mute Olive Whyte
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    Oct 30th 2024, 3:29 PM

    So sad to see this, it’s frightening.

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    Mute Ned
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    Oct 30th 2024, 3:36 PM

    Terrible to see such devastation and loss of life,

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    Mute Kevin Kerr
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    Oct 30th 2024, 3:36 PM

    That is horrendous, utter catastrophe. May the victims RIP

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    Mute Ger Whelan
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    Oct 30th 2024, 4:17 PM

    Rip to all those who lost their lives.

    61
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    Mute NotGreta
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    Oct 30th 2024, 4:15 PM

    Jesus, I was there recently enough….lovely place. Shocking to see this.

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    Mute Freda Peeple
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    Oct 30th 2024, 5:00 PM

    Devastating flood,RIP to the victims.

    49
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    Mute Kevin Kerr
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    Oct 30th 2024, 3:42 PM

    It would be great if nobody responds to John F Doe as it only gives him the attention that he craves. I reported his comment, so hopefully the Journal remove it, but I wouldn’t bet on it

    46
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    Mute Michale Kane
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    Oct 30th 2024, 4:15 PM

    @Kevin Kerr: I haven’t seen it as I muted him. Before I could never do that in the app, it just wouldn’t work and I never really wanted to mute anyone even when they spouting absolute nonsense. It seems to me you’ll only get banned if saying anything similar about Gov parties. It’s getting ridiculous when I even feel to defend people I totally disagree with on many things from the bs and pure nonsense from these.
    But you also need to call out those that doing the same in defence of the Gov too.
    Seems to me like the journals pro Gov narratives and comments ‘policy’ initially to protect same narratives have spectacularly backfired.
    They should either leave comments open on all articles that do not have ongoing legal issues or get rid altogether.

    24
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    Mute Ger Whelan
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    Oct 30th 2024, 4:17 PM

    @Kevin Kerr: and you’ve in no way given him any attention by making this post about him have you?

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    Mute Kevin Kerr
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    Oct 30th 2024, 4:23 PM

    @Ger Whelan: Yea, maybe I have Ger. But generally speaking, not engaging with trolls seems like a good tactic to me. Though maybe I should practice what I preach. Anyway, the comment has been removed, so all good

    21
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    Mute Michale Kane
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    Oct 30th 2024, 4:34 PM

    @Ger Whelan: Understand totally where you are coming from but that a/c is all over the journal.
    It does pain me defending ‘Kevin’ here as I suspect he’s muted me.
    That a/c along with his mates accused me of being one of ‘Kevs’ multiple profiles ffs lol.
    Kev is a pro FFGer, which is his prerogative, but I am certainly not.

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    Mute Ger Whelan
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    Oct 30th 2024, 4:44 PM

    @Kevin Kerr: By making your statement, you’ve engaged with the troll and given him/her exactly what they wanted. In fact you’ve given them a lot more attention. Good man

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    Mute Kevin Kerr
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    Oct 30th 2024, 4:50 PM

    @Ger Whelan: did you ever think that you engaging with me on the matter is giving him even more attention? Good man, you patronising t*t

    21
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    Mute Frank Mc Carthy
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    Oct 30th 2024, 4:54 PM

    @Kevin Kerr: with due respect, this is a horrendous article detailing the devastating floods in Spain, R.I.P. to all affected. I don’t need you/ anyone else telling me who to read / engage with. You are NOT the comments police, no matter how much trolling / reporting you do. Again, sympathies to those affected

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    Mute Frank Mc Carthy
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    Oct 30th 2024, 4:58 PM

    @Michale Kane: here here, well said…besides, muting is only giving the trolls free reign. Anyhow, I hate when sensitive articles so I’ll just say my deepest sympathies to this affected.

    R.I.P

    7
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    Mute Frank Mc Carthy
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    Oct 30th 2024, 5:00 PM

    @Frank Mc Carthy: “get hijacked”

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    Mute Freda Peeple
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    Oct 30th 2024, 5:01 PM

    @Frank Mc Carthy: We heard you the first time ken

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    Mute Kevin Kerr
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    Oct 30th 2024, 5:04 PM

    @Frank Mc Carthy: what’s that smell? It’s the BS coming from Frank/Buster/Kevvy and his faux concern. Spare me

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    Mute Frank Mc Carthy
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    Oct 30th 2024, 5:04 PM

    @Freda Peeple: whatever ‘kevin kerrr’ , as always zero respect, but you do you as usual

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    Mute Freda Peeple
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    Oct 30th 2024, 5:06 PM

    @Kevin Kerr: Yea his faux concern is sick, the man is starved of attention in the real world hence his neediness here

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    Mute Michale Kane
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    Oct 30th 2024, 5:07 PM

    @Frank Mc Carthy: totally agree .. those that ‘hijack’ tragic articles like this only show their true colours.

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    Mute Michale Kane
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    Oct 30th 2024, 5:11 PM

    @Kevin Kerr: ah didn’t take long for ya to get back to your lofty self Kev… jeez could ya have at least waited for a comment I hadn’t defended you in ?

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    Mute Michale Kane
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    Oct 30th 2024, 5:13 PM

    @Ger Whelan: for clarity I was defending what was said about a certain a/c, not Kevs lofty air of superiority.. There was no need for him to call you that name.. that’s a low blow.

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    Mute Kevin Kerr
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    Oct 30th 2024, 5:18 PM

    @Michale Kane: I was having what I thought was a civil exchange with Ger, but then he finished his post with “good man”, a patronising insult if ever there is one. That is all Michale, nothing lofty about it

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    Mute Frank Mc Carthy
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    Oct 30th 2024, 5:31 PM

    @Michale Kane: do those accounts actually deserve our sympathy though?? Next article with comments open they’ll be straight in with the insults, name calling & juvenile ramblings again. They’ve turned this site into a cesspit & I for one will call them out on it

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    Mute Ger Whelan
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    Oct 30th 2024, 5:49 PM

    @Kevin Kerr: Ah look at you spitting your dummy out and throwing out insults because you were called out. Good man.

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    Mute Kevin Kerr
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    Oct 30th 2024, 6:01 PM

    @Ger Whelan: yes Ger, you called me out. I responded in a friendly manner, but that wasn’t good enough for you, was it? You had to repeat the same thing, and then sign off with “good man”. So get off your high horse

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    Mute Ger Whelan
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    Oct 30th 2024, 6:13 PM

    @Kevin Kerr: No high horse here bud. Unlike you I don’t try to put myself on a pedestal. You made this post thinking you are better than John, yet you are just as bad as him. Funny thing is his post like yours went against the topic of the article. You reported his comment and it got deleted. I reported your comment over an hour ago and it’s still here. Wonder why that is?

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    Mute Kevin Kerr
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    Oct 30th 2024, 6:21 PM

    @Ger Whelan: his comment was removed because he was trolling off topic and looking for a reaction. Maybe my comment was ill advised, but it was made in good faith. I accepted that when you pointed it out, but that wasn’t good enough for you, was it. It never is

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    Mute Ger Whelan
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    Oct 30th 2024, 6:55 PM

    @Kevin Kerr: your comment is trolling and off topic. It’s also now breaking more of the site rules because of your childish name calling. But hey it is what it is

    9
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    Mute Kevin Kerr
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    Oct 30th 2024, 7:09 PM

    @Ger Whelan: you need to look up the definition of trolling. My name calling was in response to your rudeness when I thought we were having a civil conversation – silly me, I won’t make that mistake again. And btw, that’s the same rudeness that you demonstrated on another article when correcting another poster

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    Mute Ger Whelan
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    Oct 30th 2024, 7:31 PM

    @Kevin Kerr: this isn’t the first post you’ve resorted to childish name calling. It’s. It’s your go to move on most posts. Look at you again changing the topic and bringing up comments on other articles.. typical of you

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    Mute SV3tN8M4
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    Oct 31st 2024, 12:16 AM

    @Ger Whelan: No point engaging with that account, it’s one of many. That’s his role on here, to disrupt the narrative & push the agenda of the Govt parties. He constantly pontificates from his high horse, then insulting posters, many of whom he reports, yet he never gets censored, which begs a question of the Journal. If you use the latest technology, you will find that there are indeed Trolls & multiple accounts here, some are just lads winding up people & they are so obvious & sometimes witty & then you have the Shills doing the PR work. Let’s not forget Leo’s secret PR Dept, Harris is just as bad as well. There is one retired RTE head on here as well, “Kevin” is just someone operating on behalf of others to silence debate & people expressing opinions.

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    Mute John F doe
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    Oct 31st 2024, 12:25 AM

    @Kevin Kerr: I appear to be living rent free in your head lol

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    Mute Kevin Kerr
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    Oct 31st 2024, 2:09 PM

    @SV3tN8M4: good grief, John, your paranoia is really getting the better of you. That’s of course if you actually believe what you said, or if you’re just trying, and failing, to discredit me for some unknown reason

    1
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    Mute BadBob
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    Oct 30th 2024, 5:26 PM

    Im here in the south of Spain on holidays. Its been raining non stop for 4 days and is due to continue for a week or 2.
    The night before last had 15 hours non stop thunder and lightening. The longest and worst ive ever seen. But it was a great light show over the sea in the dark. Didnt sleep too well

    38
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    Mute John Fahy
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    Oct 30th 2024, 7:55 PM

    @BadBob: That’s such bad luck. We got back from Malaga last Thursday. We had sunny 24° for eight days!!

    9
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    Mute Brian Burrough
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    Oct 30th 2024, 7:23 PM

    Living in the murcia region, thankfully where we are got away lightly. Well done to all the emergency services, doing an unbelievable job.

    34
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    Mute Mary.E.
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    Oct 30th 2024, 8:30 PM

    Continual major warnings for the hurricane that hit Florida,yet no major warnings about these floods.which has killed up on 100 people.

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    Mute If you're
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    Oct 30th 2024, 6:51 PM

    We often visit the Murcia area. Shocking to see. It’s a place that seldom gets heavy rain but by Jaysus it made up for it over the last few days.

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    Mute AnthonyK
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    Oct 30th 2024, 7:05 PM

    Seeing as the Covid story has been closed to comments, it’s a whitewash.

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    Mute Jack Hayes
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    Oct 30th 2024, 7:55 PM

    @AnthonyK: You only had to see the type of comments that were being posted before being removed to understand why it has been closed off. Happens with most articles.

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    Mute rosemary flowers
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    Oct 31st 2024, 1:02 AM

    Oh ffs, shut up the lot of you. Have you no empathy for those poor souls who lost their lives, RIP? and the people who’s homes and businesses are destroyed and them left homeless. Pity the one’s who are still waiting to find out whether their families and friends are safe and pity those who are suffering in hospitals, some with life changing injuries. You lot don’t know how lucky you are. Be grateful it’s not you.

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    Mute SV3tN8M4
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    Oct 31st 2024, 9:50 AM

    491 mm of rain in a few days. The local politicians who did away with the Emergency section last year have some questions to answer, just like our mealy mouthed useless political class going door to door at the moment. All the towns & villages that are waiting decades for flood relief schemes around the country, hearing the usual empty promises from all parties, all lies to get elected. The whole political system in Ireland revolves around getting elected & as we saw with the articles on Pensions, hang on there & become mega rich out of it. Nothing about delivering for the people. The OPW should be disbanded & put someone capable in charge & let private business build the flood relief schemes. The country is a shambles & falls for the electoral lies every time.

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    Mute Always Question
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    Oct 31st 2024, 7:56 AM

    The general Alicante region was spared this time round thanks be; there was a DANA in 2019 which killed fewer but gave a devastating economic blow to its economy, particularly farmers of the Vega Baja area. I remember walking up to my hips in the mud to do a bit of shopping. They are no strangers to these events. Many people never received compensation from gov or insurance groups so we shall see the gnashing of teeth that goes on after this. It’s no wonder the Spanish have a fear of rain that we Irish can sometimes chuckle at. RIP and strength to those who have lost.

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