SIX MONTHS AFTER Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, the war continues to rumble on without a settlement in sight.
When Russia began the war on February 24, there was some speculation that Kyiv would be captured quickly, the Government overthrown and a new puppet regime installed in its place.
That never materialised, with Ukrainian forces managing to hold back the oncoming Russian forces and preventing them from taking the capital, shifting the conflict into a brutal war of attrition with no side appearing to have the upper hand.
How did we get here and how has this war evolved over the last six months?
The war begins
The war itself was launched at 5am local time (2am Irish time), with missile strikes hitting cities like Kyiv and Kharkiv while Russian troops began entering the country from Belarus and Russia.
The declaration, made by Putin, is to “de-Nazify” Ukraine and to receive a guarantee that the state will not join the military alliance Nato.
Alongside the Russian troops, Ukrainian separatists from Lugansk and Donetsk began attacking the Ukrainian army in the Donbas region.
Martial law was quickly declared by the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who condemned the invasion, comparing it to the invasion of Poland by Nazi Germany in 1939.
Individual battles for territory broke out across the country, with flashpoints including the Gostomel Airfield near Kyiv and the Chernobyl power plant – which was captured by Russian forces.
There was swift condemnation from European and world leaders, with immediate calls for tough sanctions on Russia. Putin has his assets freezed.
An emergency EU summit was quickly held, with a further package of sanctions hitting Russian banks, diplomats and key industries around the country.
Further sanctions, including the banning of Russian-owned media and a massive €450 million weapons package from the EU to Ukraine was also agreed by the bloc.
While fighting continued within Ukraine and Russian forces continued to advance on Kyiv, both Russia and Ukraine said that they were prepared to engage in peace talks.
It was agreed that talks would take place on the Belarusian border, following a call between Zelenskyy and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.
However, this was quickly followed by Putin claiming he had placed his ‘nuclear deterrent’ forces on high alert, raising significant concerns from global leaders and the UN nuclear watchdog.
As the first week of the war began to draw to a close, Zelenskyy called on the EU to give Ukraine “immediate” membership of the bloc and submitted the country’s official application.
In the first four days of the war, over 500,000 Ukrainian citizens fled the country according to the UN’s refugee agency.
First months
In the first days of March, Russian troops begin to occupy the Kherson region, located on Ukraine’s south coast.
The city of Kherson was captured on 3 March, with Russian forces occupying the entire city, making it the first city to fall since the invasion began.
Following the capture of Kherson, Russia begins to lay siege to the city of Mariupol, cutting off electricity and water supplies to the city and leaving civilians with no route of escape.
Russia also managed to capture the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, located along the Dnipro river, following a battle with Ukrainian troops in the area.
As strikes against Ukraine continue and peace negotiations remain ongoing, Russia begins to draw back from attacks against Kyiv, instead opting to focus on the Donbas region of the country.
Following the withdrawal of Russian forces from the area, Ukraine begins to take back some of the town surrounding the capital city, including Irpin and Bucha.
Following the reclaiming of Bucha, however, reports began to emerge that civilians had been deliberately killed by Russian forces in the town.
Zelenskyy condemned the killings, describing them as “genocide” and “war crimes”.
Ukrainian officials said that 410 bodies of civilians had been found in towns and villages around Kyiv after they were reclaimed, while Associated Press journalists saw 21 bodies of civilians in Bucha.
Following the discovery, the International Criminal Court opened a probe into potential war crimes, led by prosecutor Karim Khan.
Additional sanctions against Russia were also agreed by the EU, including an embargo on Russian coal and additional measures against Russian banks.
Following the additional sanctions, Russia moved to entirely slash key gas supplies to both Poland and Bulgaria, while it started to cut supplies to Germany through the Nord Stream pipeline.
This was following demands for so-called “unfriendly” countries to pay for their gas in roubles, with many European countries refusing to do so.
As the war continued, the focus once again shifted to the city of Mariupol, still under siege by Russian troops.
With Russian forces continuing to bombard the city, the last remaining holdout in Mariupol was the Azovstal steel plant, where both civilians and Ukrainian forces are sheltered.
There were calls for humanitarian corridors to be created to allow civilians to escape the besieged city, with several attempts failing before people were able to evacuate.
The Ukrainian forces eventually surrender the Azovstal plant, with Russia saying that thousands of soldiers were captured in the days following their surrender.
Ukraine declares that the city has been 90% destroyed by Russian attacks and that there were 20,000 people killed during the siege, while the EU denounces the siege as a “major war crime”.
Battles and blockades
With the war showing no sign of easing, the fighting continued to shift towards the Donbas region and to allow Russia to create a land bridge to the Crimean Peninsula via the south of Ukraine.
The Luhansk region was primarily targeted initially, with Ukrainian forces holding out in two cities: Severodonetsk and nearby Lysychansk.
Russian forces eventually capture the region on 3 July after seizing the two cities, then seeking to move further into the Donetsk region to further strengthen their control of the Donbas.
Policies of Russification were planned by Russia in these captured towns and cities, with both the ruble and Russian passports being issued. Plans for referendums were also made to allow for the annexation of the region.
Alongside the battles in the Donbas, standoffs between Russia and Ukraine over grain exports were coming into focus, particularly amidst the threat of food shortages in poorer nations.
A deal, brokered by the UN and Turkey, was eventually reached in face-to-face talks between Ukraine and Russia, allowing for Black Sea ports to resume exports of tonnes of grain.
Ships have since begun leaving Ukraine, with one shipment of grain arriving into Ireland last Saturday.
Counter attacks and nuclear threats
In more recent weeks, Ukrainian forces have begun a series of counterattacks on Russian-occupied territory in the south of the country.
The army has made use of recent deliveries of heavy weaponry from the US and EU, including highly-mobile HIMARs missile systems, allowing Ukrainian forces to retake villages and bridges in the Kherson region.
A recent unclaimed attack on a Russian airbase and other military facilities in Crimea, which Russia insisted was an issue with exploding ammunition, has suggested that Ukraine may be carrying out sabotage operations within the region.
Concerns have also been raised over attacks near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, with both Ukraine and Russia blaming one another for strikes against the facility in early August.
There have since been calls for a ‘demilitarised zone’ around the plant, with UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres saying he was “gravely concerned” at the uptick in fighting around the nuclear facility.
“We must tell it like it is — any potential damage to Zaporizhzhia is suicide,” Guterres said.
After six months of war, security analyst and columnist with The Journal, independent Senator Tom Clonan says that with Putin not receiving an overall victory in Ukraine, he is more willing to intimidate through nuclear threats.
“After almost six months of ground combat in Ukraine, Putin has – thus far – been denied a clear and unambiguous victory. At this stage of the war, this is highly problematic for Putin and the Kremlin,” Clonan says.
“It undermines Putin’s reputation as Russia’s ‘strong man’ and has raised serious questions around the Kremlin’s capacity to project force into Europe by conventional means.
“Hence Putin’s repeated threats to use nuclear weapons in an attempt to intimidate European resistance to his ‘imperial’ ambitions in Ukraine.”
He added that Ukraine is currently gaining the “tactical initiative” through its counterattacks in Donetsk.
According to Clonan, this leaves the decision to escalate the war with Putin.
“The decisive question over how the war might escalate, and in what form that escalation might take – with the real risk of a nuclear event – lies in the Kremlin,” Clonan says.
“This is a stark assessment and one can only hope that those who have empowered Putin throughout this crisis will come to their senses before it is too late.”
- Additional reporting by AFP
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