FIFTY STATES WILL, obviously, decide the outcome of the US presidential election next week – but it’ll come down to seven in particular.
They are known by different names: battleground states, purple states or swing states.
Ultimately, they are states that could reasonably be won by either a Democratic or Republican candidate.
Sometimes they turn blue and other times they turn red – in short, they swing back and forth.
Both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are spending a lot of time and resources in a bid to win as many of these states as possible.
To get elected, either candidate needs to reach the magic number of 270 Electoral College votes out of the 538 on offer.
Next week’s vote could be one of the closest elections in US history. Nationwide polls place Harris and Trump neck-and-neck - in swing states where one has a lead over the other, it’s often within the margin of error.
“You can’t toss out any type of prediction, other than the fact this will be a knife-edge race,” Scott Lucas, Professor of American Studies at UCD’s Clinton Institute, told The Journal.
“It’ll go all the way through the night and possibly for a few days after.”
Kamala Harris is currently leading in the northern battleground states. Donald Trump is currently leading in the Sun Belt states.
— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) October 2, 2024
This split makes especially tight Electoral College victories more likely in November. https://t.co/o2Sq4GKOXv pic.twitter.com/lHSyYSmoE9
The seven swing states are as follows:
“There’s all kinds of permutations within those seven states, which way they go,” Lucas said.
“There are so many variables within those states, including whether young men come out big for Trump or whether young women come out big for Harris.”
Many of these states have undecided voters who could end up backing either candidate on 5 November.
Each state in the US has a certain number of votes in the Electoral College – calculated by adding the number of their elected representatives in the House, which varies according to population, to the number of senators (two per state).
California has the most electoral votes at 54, while rural Vermont, for example, has just three.
If a candidate wins a certain state, they usually get all of that state’s Electoral College votes – it doesn’t matter if they win the state with 50.1% of the vote or 99%.
There are two exceptions to this rule: Nebraska and Maine allocate two electoral votes to the state’s popular vote winner, and then one electoral vote to the popular vote winner in each congressional district (three in Nebraska and two in Maine).
In short, this could lead to a split electoral vote in these states.
Lucas said the Electoral College “adds a layer of complexity” to the “horse race mentality” attached to the election.
That means that we wind up talking about the swing states incessantly, rather than talking about the actual issues.
He believes the system is “obsolete” and there is appetite – among the general public, at least – to reform it. However, what to replace it with remains a “sticking point”.
“I think the general public would be interested in reforming it, just because they could understand it.
“One of the drawbacks of the electoral system is, when people don’t understand your political system, it causes problems for engagement with it. But do I think there’s political will to change it? No, absolutely not.”
Lucas said Trump “has got to win at least one of the three northern Rust Belt states” – Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – in order to get back into the White House.
Rust Belt states get their name from the fact a large part of the population are or were employed in manufacturing jobs.
Lucas told us:
If the Democrats win Pennsylvania and Michigan, they’ve got it. They win 270 to 268… that’s how close it runs.
He said, if realised, this path to victory for Harris will be partially down to the fact Nebraska splits its Electoral College vote.
The state typically votes conservative and Trump is expected to take four of the five college votes on offer there.
However, Harris could well take the state’s fifth vote – in Omaha’s congressional district. And, when the margins are this tight, every single vote counts.
Harris can’t afford to lose two of the northern Rust Belt states, Lucas said, but, if she loses one of them, she still has a “plan B”. In this scenario, she’d turn to the four Sun Belt states in play – North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.
“She has to take three, possibly two, of those four states if she loses Pennsylvania or if she loses Michigan,” Lucas explained.
The Sun Belt states are southern states which typically have warmer climates, hence the name.
Lucas said some Democrats in states like Michigan or Georgia may not vote at all or vote for a third party candidate like the Green Party’s Jill Stein because they disagree with the Biden administration’s – and Harris’ – support for Israel.
During a trip to Atlanta in September, one Emory University student who would typically lean Democrat told The Journal he could not “bring” himself to vote for Harris because of the war in Gaza.
“She’s not listening to our beliefs,” he said at the time.
Just over a week out from polling day, Lucas said it’s simply too close to call the outcome.
“It’s a toss up, all the way. Anybody who wants to say they know who’s going to win this, I’ll take your money right now.”
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