WE SHOULD BE praying on our knees that Kamala Harris wins.
That was what one senior government source said a few weeks out from the US election.
In what is being described as political earthquake stateside, Donald Trump will return to the White House for a second term in a historic win for the candidate and the Republican party.
The Tánaiste and Taoiseach are being diplomatic today in their responses to the election result.
Harris and Martin both took to X to congratulate Trump on his win, with both leaders speaking about deepening the relationship between both countries.
Green Party leader Roderic O’Gorman, who had some strong words of warning about Trump before polling day, was somewhat less diplomatic in his language today, extending his solidarity and support to women in America.
Harris and Martin know that it could possibly be one of them travelling to Washington DC to meet Trump in the White House next March, so it is not in their best interests to rock the boat with the president elect.
Previously, both men avoided being drawn into any discussion about the US election, instead stating that Ireland has worked well with US administrations in the past and will do so again.
Privately, those in government are saying that Trump becoming US president again is not good news for Ireland.
So beyond the public niceties, what is being said behind the scenes?
When asked how bad is it for Ireland and what the main concerns are, government sources said “everything”.
They cited jobs, the economy, an economic shock in the EU, Ukraine’s future and making the EU vulnerable to Russia, the Middle East and China.
One of the main issues raised when discussing Trump’s impact on Irish business is whether his re-working of US tax law could eventually lead to a major drop in Ireland’s corporate tax take.
Senior sources state that this can be somewhat overplayed, stating that Ireland still has our strengths and US corporations will still need to have a European base. They choose Ireland for many reasons, such as the population being English speaking, it was said.
Trade war and tariffs were raised as concerns, but sources state it is too early to say what impact there could be economically.
Sources said while there is an element of the unknown, the country managed it before for four years and will do so again.
Diplomacy and global security are two major concerns, with a number of sources stating that all eyes will be on the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and what he does now.
Trump does not recognise Palestine as a state, so there is a very real worry about how he will handle the escalating war.
Within government there are significant concerns that Trump will end support for Ukraine, with the expectation now that Europe will have to step up to fill the gap.
There are also concerns that the result will embolden similar politics here, especially if Trump delivers on his promises on mass deportations.
There is a feeling in political circles that Trump was “held back” last time he was president by his Cabinet, the vice president, Congress and the Supreme Court, but now he has somewhat of a free reign.
The Journal, in asking about what impacts there might be, were told that Trump has “no real affinity for Ireland”.
They said if Ireland is not seen to be supporters of America and its allies, Trump would have no problem in “putting us out in the cold” and wouldn’t hesitate in ending the traditional St Patrick’s Day visit.
Over the years, Trump’s visits to Ireland have become more muted affairs, with the Irish government at pains to not make a big deal about such occasions.
Gone are the bizarre days where he was greeted with a red carpet, singers and the finance minister at Shannon Airport.
How the next government navigates the next four years with Trump will be interesting to watch.
To embed this post, copy the code below on your site
have your say