IRELAND HAS HAD a good run of it at the Oscars these last few years, with 2024 a particular highlight when Cillian Murphy won Best Actor for the epic Oppenheimer.

But what could 2025 have in store for Ireland across the major Oscar categories?

Let’s start with saying that most of the excitement around Oscars predictions is knowing that there will be some surprises. Some years carry more surprises than others, but it’s exciting thinking of something happening that we don’t expect on the night.

Sometimes that’s a dramatic incident like the Will Smith/Chris Rock slap or the Moonlight/La La Land mistake. But most of the time it’s someone unexpected picking up a golden statuette – like Adrien Brody’s win for Best Actor in 2003, when he fought off the likes of Nicolas Cage, Jack Nicholson, Michael Caine and Daniel Day-Lewis, who were all previous winners themselves.

Plus, he became the youngest actor to win in that category, aged just 29. 

Other somewhat surprise winners included Olivia Colman for The Favourite, when she beat the presumed winner in 2019, Glenn Close (for The Wife). And then there are the wins that still baffle today – like when Crash won in 2006 ahead of Ang Lee’s gorgeous Brokeback Mountain. That’s still a sore point for cinephiles.

All of that is to say: we never know exactly what will happen, and that’s what makes the Oscars fun. But critics and film nuts generally have a good idea of the hot favourites for each category.

That’s down to a few factors: who has been campaigning (each studio will be focus plans on their chosen films and actors), what the general buzz is around specific films and actors, any notable press incidents (good or bad) around nominees, and who and what have been winning in the other awards ceremonies running up to the Oscars. 

Of course, you can also get a year like 2023, when Everything Everywhere All At Once ended up winning a slew of awards in a fairly surprise move – it was only relatively late in the game that buzz built around it to the extent that it did.

So, where does Ireland stand?

Good news landed on 17 December when it was announced that the film Kneecap had been shortlisted in the Best International Feature category, and in the Best Original Song category (for Sick in the Head). It’s one of 15 films from across the world that will be whittled down to a list of nominees.

The film, loosely based on the band’s real-life story, was written and directed by British director Rich Peppiatt (One Rogue Reporter) and stars the members of the West Belfast rap trio, Móglai Bap, Mo Chara and DJ Provaí, alongside the likes of Michael Fassbender and Simone Kirby. The film has been a massive smash in Ireland, taking in over a million euro at the Irish box office (and millions more worldwide).

Another bit of great news was that two Irish short films, Room Taken (directed by TJ O’Grady Peyton) and Clodagh (directed by Portia A Buckley) have been shortlisted in the Best Live Action Short category.

Meanwhile, The Apprentice (about Donald Trump’s early years in business), produced by Irish production company Tailored Films, has been shortlisted in the Best Make Up and Hairstyling Category.

Kneecap is the second film ever in the Irish language to be shortlisted in the Best International Feature Film category, the first – of course – being An Cailín Ciúin in 2022. An Cailín Ciúin was nominated for an Oscar, and with significant American buzz around Kneecap since it was first shown in Sundance, things are boding well for it to scoop a nomination.

Ireland also has form in the Best Live Action Short category, as in 2023 the film An Irish Goodbye was not only nominated but took home an Oscar that night. (And The Journal was there in LA to ask them how it felt.)

Other hopes

There are another few potential Irish nominees, starting with Saoirse Ronan. Ask anyone who’s seen The Outrun, the film starring and co-produced by Ronan, and they’ll agree that she deserves yet another Oscar nomination. If she did get one, it would be her fifth (her first was back in 2008).

Ronan is much-loved in Hollywood, and critics have been praising The Outrun. But it’s a small movie and Best Actress is a jam-packed category this year. So far American critics have been predicting other people ahead of Ronan, including Mikey Madison (Anora), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Perez), Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here), Angelina Jolie (Maria) and Demi Moore (The Substance). 

Still, she’s not out of the race completely – for example, she’s 11th in the list of contenders according to the Hollywood Reporter and also 11th in Variety’s list of contenders.

Let’s not forget Ronan also starred in Blitz, the Steve McQueen film for Apple TV+ which received relatively mixed reviews. Some critics feel she could be in the running for Best Supporting Actress for this.

Paul Mescal did a great job in his first blockbuster role in Gladiator II, but could he get his second Oscar nomination? While Gladiator II will undoubtedly win something at the Oscars, being one of the biggest films of the year, he’s not top of the list of nominees in the Best Actor category. Still, critics are keeping his name among the list of contenders (he’s in the Variety top 10 predictions) so let’s not lose hope. 

It feels like Barry Keoghan is also waiting for his big Oscar win, but it’s unlikely he’ll get it for the Andrea Arnold film Bird. Best Actor is an extremely tough category this year – actors being talked about include Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), Daniel Craig (Queer) and Sebastian Stan (for either The Apprentice or A Different Man). Neither the Hollywood Reporter nor Variety have Keoghan in their top 20 contenders for a nomination.

Cillian Murphy won last year for Oppenheimer, and so let’s not expect a nod for Small Things Like These unfortunately – despite it being an impactful performance by him. 

Irish director John Crowley’s latest film We Live in Time stars some big names (Florence Pugh and Andrew Garfield), but it’s not being talked about as a contender for Best Film. 

Could we see another nomination for Element’s Ed Guiney and Andrew Lowe, who’ve been having brilliant success these last few years? Well, they did produce the latest Yorgos Lanthimos film Kinds of Kindness, but so far it’s not in the awards ‘conversation’.  

The cinematographer for the film was Robbie Ryan, who was also the cinematographer for Bird (and Poor Things, which he received an Oscar nomination for). So there might be a potential nomination for Ryan here - though he has some stiff competition.

That’s where things stand right now – but with anything Oscars-related there’s still room for plenty of movement.

One thing is sure: we’ll only know for certain who is nominated on Friday 17 January 2025, while the winners will be unveiled at the 97th Oscars on Sunday, March 2. Fingers crossed it’s another good night for Ireland.