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People celebrate along a street in Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip Alamy

Explainer: When will the Gaza ceasefire take effect - and will it last?

The ceasefire will happen in phases, each dependent on the success of negotiations during the last.

A CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT, including a hostage swap deal, has been reached between Israel and Hamas, meaning there will be a pause to war in the region some 15 months after the 7 October attacks.

In the interim, more than 46,000 people have been killed by the Israeli army, with as much as 70% being women and children.

President Michael D Higgins said the deal was will benefit “those at the edge of survival itself”, as it marks the beginning of diplomacy that he hopes will create lasting peace.

Taoiseach Simon Harris said he hoped both sides would honour their commitments so that civilians and hostages can begin to rebuild their lives.

Negotiations to end the war broke down several times, and even after the announcement of the deal, talks will continue as the details of each stage of the ceasefire are ironed out.

The administration of US president Joe Biden – which sold billions in arms to Israel – helped get the truce over the line, aided by incoming president Trump’s team.

Here’s what you need to know about the historic deal.

When will it take effect?

Gaza’s civil defence agency says since the ceasefire deal was announced, Israel has pounded several areas of the Palestinian territory, killing at least 73 people and wounding hundreds.

The ceasefire will happen in stages.

On Sunday, both sides will begin to release hostages and a “full and complete ceasefire” will kick in, according to Biden.

Palestinian officals told the BBC that three Israeli hostages will be released initially, and more exchanges will happen gradually over a six-week period.

However, in the first stage, all women, children and men over 50 will be released.

Another important part of this stage is the passing of humanitarian aid through Gaza, which has been sabotaged and halted by Israel many times.

Last month, aid group Oxfam said that just 12 trucks were able to distribute food and water in northern Gaza between 6 October and 22 December 2024. 

The second stage is dependent on the continued success of negotiations, but would involve a “permanent end to war” and Israeli troops would withdraw from Gaza completely.

The remaining men would be released.

The third phase of the deal would see the bodies of the deceased hostages being held by Hamas returned. It would also include the establishment of a rebuilding plan for Gaza, and a new structure of government.

How many hostages will be freed?

Israel had imprisoned hundreds of people during its occupation and the most recent escalation of vioence. 

It is expected to release about 1,000 prisoners, some jailed for years, in return for the hostages. 

Israel warned, however, that those convicted of murder would not be released.

On 7 October 2023, Hamas seized 251 hostages. It is still holding 94 people, but it is believed that only 60 are alive.

The Art of the Deal?

Behind the scenes, surprising collaboration the Biden and incoming Trump administrations was instrumental in nailing down a deal.

In the final four days of talks, Biden’s pointman Brett McGurk was joined in the region by Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff.

In a newly-released recording of a White House official talking about the deal, said the partnership was “highly constructive” and “very fruitful”.

Israeli and Hamas negotiators were huddling on separate floors of a building in the Qatari capital Doha, while moderators from Qatar and Egypt shuttled between them with their proposals.

McGurk and Witkoff were talking “multiple times a day” and there was “great coordination,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told CNN.

Veteran diplomat McGurk has served in a number of US administrations, including in Trump’s first term.

Witkoff is a businessman and real estate expert but has jumped into the negotiations – even insisting that Netanyahu break the sabbath on Saturday for a meeting.

The cooperation between the two US administrations didn’t stop them battling over who should claim credit for a deal that had seemed out of reach for so many months.

Trump said the “epic” win would never have happened without his election putting pressure for a deal, while Biden said “is that a joke?” when a reporter asked which of them should get credit.

Will it last?

The big question is – however impressive the deal is – will it last?

Well, that’s up to both sides.

As the ceasefire will happen in phases, each will depend on the success of negotiations during the last.

It has put Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a tough spot. If he goes for the deal , far-right members of his Cabinet will turn on him, leading to an election being called, that Netanyahu likely wouldn’t win.

There will be global outrge if he doesn’t accept the deal.

Israeli media has welcomed a truce, focusing on the hostages’ release.

The Jeruselem Post wrote in an editorial that the ceasefire is “about people, not politics”, calling out Trump’s “credit grab”.

Let us save the fighting for tomorrow. We are so good at it, anyway.

“This is not the time to get into the petty politics of the situation. This is not the time to lament about the release of Hamas terrorists; that can come in its own time. Today, we must celebrate, both as a nation and for our nation.”

What does it mean for the Middle East?

Many Middle Eastern countries have expressed their relief at the deal, restating Israel’s lack of popularity in the region.

Saudi Arabia’s foreign ministry stressed “the need to adhere to the agreement and stop the Israeli aggression on Gaza”.

Jordan an Egypt, Israel’s nearest neighbours, called on world powers to ensure the delivery of aid to Palestinians.

Egypt, along with Qatar, will supervise the return of refugees from the southern Gaza Strip to the north after thousands were driven from their homes. The coutnries will also watch the IDF’s withdrawal from each area.

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan hoped the agreement “will be beneficial for our region and for all humanity, particularly for our Palestinian brothers, and that it will open the way to lasting peace and stability”.

Iran’s supreme leader said: “Today, the world realised that the patience of the people of Gaza and the steadfastness of the Palestinian resistance forced the Zionist regime to retreat.”

With reporting by AFP

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