WE DON’T KNOW the make up of the next Dáil yet, who will be in it, and who will lead it, but speculation is already rife about what the next government will look like.
There’s lots of theories, but right now it is a numbers game.
Speaking to senior Fianna Fáil sources, their expectation of how many seats they might take ranges from 45 to 48, depending who you talk to.
They believe Fine Gael will come in under 40.
Meanwhile, those in Fine Gael believe they could get around 45 seats.
Once the final make up of the next government is agreed, it will get down to the nitty gritty, such as whether there will be another rotating Taoiseach model.
With Fianna Fáil in line to take more seats than Fine Gael, there has been lots of talk about ‘parity of esteem’.
However, one would think if there is a ten seat gap between the parties, Micheál Martin would have the lean on Simon Harris, and could insist on doing away with the mechanism.
One senior Fianna Fáil source said yesterday that Martin went into this election with the ambition to lead the next government. When asked if that meant for the entirety, they indicated that was the case, so no swapping of the top job half way through.
Whether those in Fine Gael know as much, it remains to be seen, but one senior Fine Gaeler said they think Martin will accept the rotating Taoiseach model, but only if there isn’t a huge difference between the two parties
This senior source said there is “no way” Fine Gael will go in otherwise and Martin would know that.
However, if Harris does turn down being Tánaiste for the full term, does the look of throwing the toys out of the pram for not getting a go at the top job not just look awful.
This source said there would be “a dance” done first before that would be agreed, stating that there could be room for Martin to insist on having the Taoiseach job for three years plus more Cabinet seats than Fine Gael.
Maurice Cummins – former leader of the Seanad and the father of new Waterford Fine Gael TD John Cummins – told The Journal in Waterford yesterday that “as part of negotiations, the party with the largest number of seats will take the Taoiseach’s strip – and I’d say there will be a rotating Taoiseach”.
“I think Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will, with a number of independents, form the next government. We need a stable government at a time when Trump and tariffs may affect our economy.”
Asked if the rotating Taoiseach model would be important for Fine Gael in any talks, Cummins said, “I think it would, it would have to be one of the things” that forms part of coalition talks.
So aside from who is going to lead the next government, what parties will be in it?
The magic number for a majority in the new Dáil is 88 seats.
Senior Fianna Fáil sources say they would want a ‘buffer’ of at least a few supportive seats in the next government, as it is inevitable over the course of a government that one or two might fall by the wayside.
Former Taoiseach Bertie Ahern believes 94 is the right number of TDs for government formation, so maybe Fianna Fáil are looking to their former master’s take on it.
It has been suggested that both larger parties expect that they will approach both the Social Democrats and Labour Party with a view to one or both of them possibly joining a new government.
However, there is also chatter about turning to Independents to shore up the numbers. Some within both parties state that while the focus is on Labour and the Social Democrats, they state they wouldn’t be surprised if the two party leaders opted for independents.
There are pros and cons to both options for the bigger parties.
Going in with a party provides more stability – essentially, you’re getting what it says on the tin, and there shouldn’t be too many surprises once a programme for government is agreed.
However, on the flip side, you might have to concede more of your policy plans in a bid to find common ground and form a government.
Independents, in the short term, are an attractive prospect.
They tend to have a wish list of deliverables that they want if the go in, and once they are ticked off, they tend to play ball with the larger parties.
However, as seen in the past with the likes of the Independent Alliance, they also tend to have varying opinions on lots of issues, meaning that oftentimes, the day-to-day business of just passing legislation can hit unexpected hiccups.
If Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael decide they would prefer a party as their third pillar, they first have to get them on board.
The preference in both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil for an agreement with Labour, with some stating that it would prove more difficult with the Social Democrats to form a coalition.
So would either party play ball?
A senior party source in the Social Democrats told The Journal that they don’t expect there will be any serious government formation talks involving Sinn Féin or other parties on the left.
It’s understood the feeling in the Social Democrats is that the party will give serious consideration to entering coalition with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael and that they see setting out their core goals in the programme for government as a way to guard against a fate similar to that of the Greens in this election.
The senior source said that the programme for government for this outgoing government was “chaotic” and described it as a hotchpotch of incoherent snippets from each of the three parties manifestos.
On housing, they accepted that the approach desired by the Social Democrats is vastly different to the one being pursued by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael adding that both parties would have to offer some serious alterations if they want to work with the Social Democrats.
It is believed that some in the Social Democrats think the larger parties will ultimately look to Independents, as the concessions that would be needed might be too much for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael to sell to their party members.
The Social Democrats also have to mind their own house.
It’s a new party on the rise. Going into government runs the risk of decimating the party after the five years as it is often the case that the smaller party in government gets a hammer blow in the next election Should they go in and achieve what the can or sit tight and grow the party in opposition?
And what about Labour? Well, there are mixed views in Labour about re-entering government, but former TD Aodhán Ó Ríordáin made his opinion clear yesterday, stating that his party should not go into government with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, if they are asked to do so.
The Journal understands that this is a sentiment shared widely within the party and that a push to enter government formation talks with Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael is being driven by outgoing Tipperary TD and former Labour leader Alan Kelly, with Labour leader Ivana Bacik also not averse to the idea.
A senior Fine Gael source said Labour would be the preference but posed the question: if the numbers are close to 90 between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, which could include the likes of Michael Lowry and Noel Grealish (who have supported the government in the past from the opposition benches) will a third pillar be needed at all?
Speaking to reporters in Cork yesterday, the Fianna Fáil leader said “the sensible thing is to await the completion of all counts”.
He added: “We’ll let the dust settle and savour the moment. We’ll then be in a position over the next couple of days to assess the landscape, devise our strategies.”
So where does that leave us?
Essentially nothing is ruled in or out (except talking to Sinn Féin) with Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil camps saying all viable options are on the table, but it’s early days. Clear as mud so.
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