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Mark Stedman/Photocall Ireland

A boom in construction could lead to the economy overheating

A new report forecasts GDP growth of 3.8% this year.

A BOOM IN construction could lead to the Irish economy overheating, an economic think tank had warned.

The Economic and Social Research Institute’s (ESRI’s) quarterly economic commentary says that growth in the economy is set to remain strong throughout 2017 and 2018.

The analysis finds that growth to the GDP is forecast at 3.8% this year and 3.6% next year.

This growth will be driven by investment in Ireland as well as consumption.

These are being driven by increased activity in the construction sector, which is bringing higher levels of residential and commercial supply on stream.

This construction boom could also bring down the unemployment rate faster than was previously anticipated.

However, the report warns that an over-production in the construction sector could result in the economy overheating – as production outpaces demand.

“The increased level of construction activity could also cause the unemployment rate to reduce faster than envisaged,” the report warns.

If unemployment were to fall below 5.5% this would almost certainly confirm that the domestic economy is overheating.

“It is important to continuously compare the actual level of construction in the Irish economy with the underlying, long-run demand for such activity,” said report author Kieran McQuinn.

The report also warns that the “external environment remains highly uncertain” for this year and next year.

Brexit and the chance of the US pursuing protectionist trade policies may result in adverse effects the the Irish economy, the report warns.

“A small open economy particularly reliant on international trade is highly vulnerable to significant changes in international trading conditions,” warned McQuinn.

Read: Number of people granted Irish citizenship in 2015 almost half that of 2012 peak

Read: Only 8% of working-age Travellers have completed the Leaving Cert

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57 Comments
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    Mute Barry Vickers
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    Jan 31st 2016, 11:47 AM

    “Think of something pleasant so you appear sincere” OR be sincere.

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    Mute Brian Ward
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    Jan 31st 2016, 11:28 AM

    You forgot to mention that Winston Churchill spent most of his life in an alcoholic haze. His famous “fight them on the beaches” speech sounds so belligerent because he was apparently 3 sheets to the wind . The nation thought that it was his fighting spirit that made him sound so resolute but in fact it was more probably the contents of a bottle of brandy that gave him that growling tone. The only thing he didn’t do was finish off his speech with “the fugging bashtrds, I’ll take ‘em all on!”.

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    Mute The Dude
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    Jan 31st 2016, 12:00 PM

    …rewriting history there Brian, are we?

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    Mute Eugene Walsh
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    Jan 31st 2016, 12:43 PM

    Ya churchy baby loved the sauce, some of his hardest and best decisions were made late at night with a brandy bottle. He said that he got more out of booze than booze ever got out of him.

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    Mute Brian Ward
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    Jan 31st 2016, 3:32 PM

    The Dude, far from it. Churchill was a renowned drinker who had champagne for lunch and dinner followed by brandy and was rarely seen without a glass of whiskey by his side. He reputedly got sick as a young boy and his doctor advised him to drink sherry as a remedy only he neglected to mention how much and more importantly when to stop, This article http://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/thinking-man/11371641/The-day-I-tried-to-match-Churchill-drink-for-drink.html lays out what Churchill drank during the day. It would make most people completely useless by tea time but to someone who had being drinking for years it would be achievable.

    Another notable person who was an working alcoholic for most of their life and still achieved success is Ingvar Kampard, the founder of Ikea https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ingvar_Kamprad . He reckons that he became an alcoholic by drinking large amounts of vodka while doing deals with suppliers and customers in Poland as he grew the business. He reputedly drinks 2 bottles of vodka a day but dries out 3 times a year.

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    Mute The Dude
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    Jan 31st 2016, 4:09 PM

    It didn’t stop him from becoming the greatest leader of the 20th century!

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    Mute Brian Ward
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    Jan 31st 2016, 4:50 PM

    I never said it did. Although calling him the greatest leader of the 20th century may well be a matter for debate.

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    Mute Mono Official
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    Jan 31st 2016, 11:55 AM

    Keep your hands out of your pockets as you shake someone’s hand. Solid advice

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    Mute Vladimir Vasyectomy
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    Jan 31st 2016, 12:00 PM

    Mono Official
    And politicians take note, – keep your hands out of other people’s pockets when shaking their hands…

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    Mute Vladimir Vasyectomy
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    Jan 31st 2016, 11:24 AM

    ” 2. Reduce how quickly and often you nod. ” – Mary (headbangin’ to a ‘Whole lot of Rosie’.) Robinson take note.

    44
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    Mute Oran Joyce
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    Jan 31st 2016, 12:14 PM

    ‘Make people feel like they’re the most intelligent, impressive and fascinating person you’ve ever met’
    So.
    If you’re talking to some boring a**hole then you’re actually suppressing your rational intelligence and becoming a two faced duplicitous a**hole yourself in the process.
    Great.
    That really makes sense.

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    Mute P.J. Nolan
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    Jan 31st 2016, 12:44 PM

    One sure fire way to become the least influential person in the world….

    Tell people what you really think of them.

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    Mute Fred
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    Jan 31st 2016, 12:47 PM

    That is the most intelligent, impressive and fascinating thing I’ve ever heard. Please, Oran, do go on…

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    Mute Oran Joyce
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    Jan 31st 2016, 1:33 PM

    Is that you Oprah?

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    Mute Michael Sands
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    Jan 31st 2016, 1:34 PM

    Oran what if bullies read this and thing, yes we can bully someone and use these techniques against the victim they are bullying? By spreading lies about the victim to justify the bullying as craic or as excuses for the bullying by controlling the reasons for it or getting others to join in on it because they are stupid or immature not to know the difference?

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    Mute Oran Joyce
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    Jan 31st 2016, 4:08 PM

    ……

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    Mute NO 2 FF/FG/LAB
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    Jan 31st 2016, 11:26 AM

    Keep on noticing this trend: Take a common sense subject, go over think the subject for years & then write a book about it.

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    Mute John Mc Carthy
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    Jan 31st 2016, 12:51 PM

    No to FG/Lab/FF
    So what is the alternative ?
    A shower of misfits !

    Careful what you wish for

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    Mute Johnneary
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    Jan 31st 2016, 11:48 AM

    Seeing as it’s about being a false leader.
    Should we not ad.
    1 Be corrupt and willing to take back handers.
    2 Get wealthy corrupt backers behind you and be willing to forward their agenda no matter how vile it is.
    3 Loose all respect and love for fellow humans including your own family.

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    Mute The Dude
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    Jan 31st 2016, 12:01 PM

    …and use a teleprompter.

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    Mute Vladimir Vasyectomy
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    Jan 31st 2016, 12:18 PM

    Johnneary
    And hire 25 personal assistants and staff to tell him what to say, – but heaven forbid that he takes part in any live debate, in case he’s found out…

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    Mute The Dude
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    Jan 31st 2016, 12:47 PM

    …I was referring to Hussein Obama

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    Mute Johnneary
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    Jan 31st 2016, 2:15 PM

    Amen Guys.

    Practicing all of the things in the above article won’t produce a charismatic/good leader.
    It may produce a bought out, false also-ran puppet pseudo leader, kleptocrat or crony capitalist.

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    Mute JimmyMc
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    Jan 31st 2016, 11:58 AM

    ‘Think of something pleasant and a photo of Oprah underneath..bad call

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    Mute Michael Sands
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    Jan 31st 2016, 1:38 PM

    This is a joke but did you mean… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-SOvZmVD1kQ

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    Mute Michael Sands
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    Jan 31st 2016, 1:26 PM

    I use to get drunk and loved everybody then and I didn’t have a good time unless the other person had a good time as well.
    How about stopping this nonsense and become truthful to yourselves and to others, liking or loving people is the best way to becoming charismatic. Anything else just makes you a liar to yourself and to others.
    I do dislike this as it is a way to make people fake in other to get what THEY WANT and that is using people. Another name for people like this is sociopathic…

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    Mute Larry Whack
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    Jan 31st 2016, 1:12 PM

    13. Get confident, stupid!

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    Mute Ken Pepper
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    Jan 31st 2016, 7:41 PM

    Wave your hands all over the place whilst talking

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    Mute Tom Molloy
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    Jan 31st 2016, 8:50 PM

    Is not meaning and believing what you say the most important thing not good acting.

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    Mute Michael Sands
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    Jan 31st 2016, 1:21 PM

    You wha? “Think of something pleasant so you appear to be sincere.” Become an excellent listener by deliberately pausing and asking questions.” and “Combine your power with warmth to create a full, charismatic package.”

    Congratulations, you are now becoming a sociopath?

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    Mute fusha2020
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    Jan 31st 2016, 1:27 PM

    A bad handshake is the worst, men or women it doesn’t matter a limp,weak n slithering handshake has just ruined anything else you try to say! Also don’t touch me anywhere else when you shake my hand, my hand your hand end of,no shoulders, no elbows, no mid arm,no mid waist just the hand thanks!

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