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THE COVID-19 CRISIS has caused an economic shock “unprecedented in scale and speed”, the Governor of the Central Bank has warned.
Speaking to reporters today, Governor of the Central Bank, Gabriel Makhlouf, said that the pandemic was a “a test of the financial system like no other in the last decade”.
“We are perhaps only at the end of the beginning of seeing those challenges emerge,” he said.
The unprecedented impact of the Covid-19 pandemic – which has seen hundreds of thousands of people put out of work – is the subject of the Central Bank’s first stability review of 2020, which was published this afternoon.
Amid fears that Ireland and other countries could face a potential ‘second wave’ of the virus, the Central Bank is warning that the “longer it takes to successfully combat the public health crisis, the greater the risks to the macro-financial outlook”.
Speaking to reporters today, Makhlouf said that even if Ireland was able to suppress the virus and prevent a second wave, the economic recovery will remain heavily reliant on how other countries are able to respond to the spread of coronavirus.
“As a small open economy, we’re exposed to macro events around the world,” he said in response to a question from TheJournal.ie.
“We’re exposed to the world so we’re exposed to the impact not just of a second wave, but to the pace other countries recover to the first wave.”
“The many risks we were facing before the crisis haven’t gone away,” he added, citing global trade tensions and the UK’s departure from the EU.
“We are dependent of the actions and the decisions made elsewhere. We can influence them, some directly, but the most important thing we can do is build up our resilience.”
Warning
Both the stability review and Makhlouf stressed that one of the positive points from the crisis is that the economy is a more stable position than it was during the financial crash.
“Households, businesses and the financial system have entered into the current phase in a more resilient position compared to the onset of the financial crisis a decade ago,” Makhlouf said.
The report from the Central Bank makes a similar claim. “In contrast to the domestic and Global Financial Crisis of the late 2000s, the financial sector is responding to, as opposed to being at the root of the challenges posed by the pandemic,” the review states.
This time around, businesses and households are much more secure financially – but that doesn’t mean all will be able to get through the crisis unscathed, the report warns.
“While the starting resilience of households and firms is significantly stronger compared to the onset of the financial crisis a decade ago, the scale of the economic shock is unprecedented and will create pressure on the financial position of borrowers and lenders.”
Makhlouf repeatedly warned that while banks will be able to sustain some losses, “that resilience is not unlimited”.
Mortgages
During the crisis, focus has turned to the long-term impact of the virus on various sectors of the economy.
Cash-flow challenges for businesses and lower house prices are set to be one of the most likely impacts into the short-term, with the longer-term fall out remaining to be seen.
As of the end of May, nearly 193,000 payment breaks had been agreed between customers and the five main banks – totaling €24.9 billion in loans.
These breaks, the review found, represents over 13% of the total loans for Irish retail banks, “making the outcome for borrowers beyond the payment breaks period a material consideration for financial stability”.
With 47% of mortgage holders working in a sector at risk from the pandemic, the report warns that Covid-19 payments are not enough to support those who face may mortgage repayments.
At the start of the crisis, the government introduced a Pandemic Unemployment Payment and a Wage Subsidy Scheme to support workers and businesses – two measures that have added major pressures to state finances, with the budget deficit in May at €6.1 billion.
“Uncertainty remains about the likely mortgage default rate resulting from Covid-19,” the report states. It predicts that once payment breaks end in several months time, applications for forbearance and restructuring are likely to increase.
“In some cases, the income shock for mortgage borrowers will persist beyond the length of the payment break and will require additional forbearance, restructuring or resolution”, states the review.
For businesses, a better economic position than the financial crisis doesn’t mean that all will be insulated into the future. Small and medium-sized businesses, the report warns, will face difficulties the longer restrictions remain in place.
“Overreliance on debt risks diminishing medium-term resilience, if increased borrowing simply finances pandemic-related losses,” the report warns.
Brexit
The UK’s exit from the EU may also mean Ireland faces greater risks from Covid-19, the Central Bank warns. The possibility of negotiations between the UK and the EU ending with no post-transition agreement in place may pose difficulties as the economy struggles with the effects of the pandemic.
“The macroeconomic shock of reverting to a WTO regime for trade in goods between the EU and UK from 2021 could be material for Ireland, with more severe effects in certain regions and sectors,” the report warns.
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Strangely, the Journal always closes its comments section regarding other political posts and controversies, but when a democratically elected Sinn Féin TD is mentioned, its comment section becomes open season. The politically motivated censorship bias in the Journal is nauseating and infamous.
@Tristan Ua Ceithearnaigh: that’s simply not true, which 5 minutes scrolling would prove. A bit rich considering you just accused someone else of lying.
@Tristan Ua Ceithearnaigh: Don’t worry you’re not paranoid because we are all talking about you and SF.
@Tristan Ua Ceithearnaigh: Tristans embarrassment is palpable. I’m not sure I understand what being ” democratically elected” has to do with O’Snodaigh trousering €50,000 worth of ink cartridges, not paying anything back, promising to make a donation to a charity as a mea culpa but there being no evidence of this being discharged. We’ll say nothing of his postering team being caught with all sorts and jailed for membership of a terrorist organisation. There’s plenty more in the comments below. Maybe Tristan hates people expressing themselves? Politically motivated, eh? Tristan will go on to mention FG and West brits and still find time to cry here because the truth hurts, and O’Snodaigh is laughable.
@Tristan Ua Ceithearnaigh: strange how in the space of a few minutes your comment and Anthony Curran’s suddenly have over 200 likes.
@Dermot Blaine: I noticed that 100s of likes in minutes of posting.
@Tristan Ua Ceithearnaigh: same happen with FG
@Tristan Ua Ceithearnaigh: Chuckeebrother whinge mate.
@honey badger: ahhh the ‘ moral virtue’ of honey again. The non FFG supporting, Zionist genocide loving hypocrite. If it SF related we get historical diatribes but not a moral word uttered about this weeks current news about FG councillor Bill Tormey.
You’ve gotta scroll down 22 articles to find the one about the Fine Gael paedophile. Now tell me again how long that article would remain top of the pile if the guy was from Sinn Féin!
@Anthony Curran: stories go down according as new ones are added. You Shinners need to get over this persecution complex, it’s hard to take you seriously with the giant chip on your shoulder.
@Anthony Curran: There are no comments allowed on that story, comments push stories upward too, as popular ones attract more views. Ye really are running out of ground.
@Paul O’Mahoney: Comments are never allowed when there’s an open court case, but that doesn’t suit the persecution complex
@Dermot Blaine: Ah Dermot, you know that’s not true. Certain stories remain top of the pile for hours on end. Fine Gael paedo stories fall down quicker than yer mot’s kaks.
@Anthony Curran: Well the lad who was grooming the young lad , 16 , didn’t last long, nor SF giving references for a known and convicted sex offender who went on to work with more children.
@Anthony Curran: what I do know is the SF supporters have a persecution complex. It’s pretty obvious.
@Anthony Curran: it up there with FG and McGahon
@Anthony Curran: and people smuggler, allegedly.
A no, surely an ex-Fine Gael independent should get it who wanted immigrants to be sent to an Irishif8vation camo so they’ll vote for her or Lowry, corruption comes naturally to the Irish
@Brian D’Arcy: SF deserve to be ridiculed and slagged off lol
@Hot Jim: go back to sleep.
This guy blew 50,000 on “ink cartridges,” and the noisy neighbours here are having a meltdown over over 2500 on a book launch. One suspects they aren’t sincere.
O’Snofaigh said at the time he’d make a donation to ” charity” to make up for this largesse. I have been unable to locate confirmation of this generous promise being fulfilled.
@honey badger: At least they didn’t spend close to 1 million to get a printer fitted.
@honey badger: remember the car occupants stopped on the way to carry out a bank robbery or something, with a boot full of O’ Snodaigh election paraphinalea?
@honey badger: Here’s a heartwarming photo of O’Snodaigh on his way into work.
https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/batons-drawn-as-sf-storms-seat-of-power/26702000.html
@Dermot Blaine: I do, indeed. One of the perps comments here from time to time..I always ask him why they had ministers home addresses, fake garda jackets, duct tape, & baseball bats as well. He told me its none of my business!
@Ger Whelan:
@Ger Whelan: or bike shed or security hut..
@Ger Whelan: To be fair, if every TD spent the same amount on ink cartridges over the same time frame as Wolfe Toner, it would cost us 8.7 million!
@honey badger: how much would it have cost if every TD bought a printer?. Such an amazing printer that it didn’t fit and they had to spend hundreds of thousands on top of the cost of the printer to make it fit.
@Ger Whelan: You’re only being silly now Ger. Why would a TD want such a huge industry-grade printer for themselves? Ink cartridges for every TD is quite plausible.
@honey badger: Your mates spent millions on e-voting machines that were never used and millions more to store them. So I’d wind yer neck in vadger.
@honey badger: because I’ve learned from experience FF/FG don’t mind wasting millions of tax payers money on useless things.
@honey badger: One of the “perps” ? You still watching reruns of Hill Street Blues ? Ya auld codger ya .. lol.
@honey badger: Honey Badger, the Fine Gael troll forgets to mention that Fine Gael ordered a € million printer and then spent another 25,000 to get a building renovated so that it could be fitted, Not only are Fine Gael collosal money wasters of tax payers money , but they are outrageously incompetent as well. €330,000 spent on a bike shed, and € million on a hut , yet still no one is found answerable.
And all this west Brit Honey Badger can obsess about is ink cartridges.
@Ger Whelan: no but his buddy claimed €50000.
@Tristan Ua Ceithearnaigh: The newest member of SFs spin department has arrived. Can’t debate but resorts to insults and name calling, no wonder they lost 3 elections in a row.
@Tristan Ua Ceithearnaigh: Do you think that they overpaid for the printer? How much do you reckon SF would have got it for?
@Paul O’Mahoney: It’s hardly insulting to call Vadger a west brit. The cap fits.
@Tristan Ua Ceithearnaigh: Tristan, you’re invited to look onto the procurement processes involved in both Leinster House and within the OPW. It is easy (and maybe a little understandable) to point at things you don’t comprehend fully, but you shouldn’t as it highlights your ignorance.
Your issue is with the civil service and a lack of accountability. Now, this is something the government should do more on! We can agree on that. I’m not obsessed with ink cartridges at all! I’m just reminding people that this oaf splurged 50 grand on ink cartridges. Now pay attention – this is the bit that annoyed me: He held his hands up when caught. Didn’t offer to pay the money pay the money back. Instead offered to donate “an amount” to charity. I can find no evidence of this offer being discharged…
@Jason Memail: Surely the printer was a failure of public sector procurement rather than government anyway
@Mick Duvanny: Either way, the comments here seem to take issue with the cost of the printer, talking about it being a waste of taxpayers money. I look forward to hearing how much the SF fans think a different government would have to pay for the same piece of machinery.
@Anthony Curran: Another ad hominem. Christopher Hitchens said he was always thrilled when debate opponents went straight to the ad hominem. It meant they had no answer. And sure, how could you defend a TD blowing €50,000 on ink cartridges, not pay the money back, say he’ll donate to charity instead but seemingly never discharge this face saving promise? We don’t even need to get into his election poster team being caught with all sorts and then jailed for membership of a terrorist organisation – it’s not that relevant to my point. But, yeah, calling me a west brit makes this all go away… ;)
@Tristan Ua Ceithearnaigh:
Let’s not forget Sinn Fein laundering their money in Northern Ireland and Bulgaria
@Jason Memail:
Depends which flats complex supplies it to them.
I have lived in Ballyfermot for the past 15 years and I NEVER seen this TD doing something real, palpable for the the broad community. Most annoying in quietness TD of the area.
@Chris: Aren’t you lucky
@Chris: The undignified grabbing for the position of Fattened Calf by all parties, SF, FF, FG, Ind & whoever else will have a go, highlights that it’s all about self enrichment. They couldn’t give two foooks about the Irish people or the Irish Nation, it’s all about what they can get out of it. When you look at those going for it, from character references for Paedos, Court Cases, Ink Cartridges, we really are scraping the bottom of the barrel. The scrap for Ceann Comhairle as viewed by working Irish Taxpayers only causes more disaffection with Irish politics, take note Simon Harris or the Monk could be the next Ceann Comhairle.
Ah Wolfe Toner himself.
“Aengus Ó Snodaigh TD says his use of 434 printer cartridges between 2007 and 2008 – costing over €50,000 – was merited.”
@Dermot Blaine: Could be worse. He coulda spent €350,000 on a gold plated bike shed!
@Dermot Blaine: It’s late on Friday but that 50k would probably be many times more in today’s money, not quite bike shelter money, but at least the bike shelter will be used for more than one person.
@Anthony Curran: yeah, but the OPW spent that, not an individual TD helping himself to office supplies. Shocking, but not the same thing at all.
@Anthony Curran: You’d only get 140oz of Gold for 350k that’s not a lot of Gold
@Paul O’Mahoney: and it wasn’t just him. His northern brethren were at it too. Sinn Féin MLA Pat Doherty ran up a bill of almost €20,000 on printer toner cartridges in two and a half years at Stormont.
@Dermot Blaine: Must be a fetish
@Dermot Blaine: Have you seen how much Sinn Féin print? Who is tge party that never frequent the Dáil, ftom an employee in the Dáil, Sinn Féin are the hardest working group there, or how about Lucinda Creighton and her partner claiming expenses on Christmas day, want to ho further left, Richard Boyd-Barret claiming €12,000 for his car to be repaired. Tell me again who rejects pay increases while the rest take it, yeah, amazing how some forget so much but hey, let’s not forget about the Fine Gael human trafficer also caught with paedophile images
@Brian D’Arcy: The idea that SF don’t take their full pay is laughable. They can oppose it all they like while grandstanding, safe in the knowledge that they’ll get it anyway. I don’t see any SF TDs giving their pay increases to charity
@Jason Memail: They take the whole salary and expenses, Dessie Ellis aka the Finglas Bomber said he was struggling so they scrapped it.
@Brian D’Arcy: SF are in no position to accuse other parties when it comes to paedophilia, are they? Did FG cover up for this guy like SF did for their perverts? Of course there are people who abuse the expenses system in all parties, but they’re not being nominated for CC right now, are they?
@Brian D’Arcy:
Sinn Fein lied for years to their grass root members claiming the big boys lived on the average industrial wage.
Then Dessie let it slip to a jurno that the greedy lot were all pocketing the full amount plus expenses.
@Anthony Curran: if it was gold plated the Shinners would have it swiped
TDs won’t get out of hand when they see the baseball bat,
Are they for real, i’d rather see Hutch
Not a hope of him getting it.
Kneecap for anyone who steps out of line.
@Tom tom: Now now, any more from you and I’ll get John McGahon to knock yer block off
@Anthony Curran: God ye are really running out of road……
@Anthony Curran: and stick a twix up his hole!
Lucky he only scammed for ‘ink’ cartridges. SF aka The Cartridge Family.
Comedy Gold
This can’t be for real. Is it April 1st ?
@Derick R M: No its Friday the 13th a much scarier day after what’s unfolding…..
Job comes with a guaranteed TD position after the next election in 5 years. (Or whenever )
Or another stint as Comhairle with a TD position in 10 years, so cushy job potentially for 15 years.
And maybe a seat in the Seanad after all that.
And the locals who voted for a TD looses that TDs representation while their Comhairle
Sickening.
@Tom: Suddenly, the job description and payment of the Ceann Comhairle comes under scrutiny and intense fire simply because SinnFéin threw their hat in for job. There are a lot of Fine Gael trolls still very angry that Sinn Féin got more seats than Fine Gael did.
@Tristan Ua Ceithearnaigh: But not as many votes.
@John Madden: 40,000 less than FG, 80,000 less than FF and 160, 000 down on 2020, and how many were elected on the first count? SF supporters here were saying about Harris, Martin, Varaktar that they got elected on long counts, most of SFs TDs got in on the last count and some not reaching quota……but like the 3 in a row lost elections they still think they are important.
@Tristan Ua Ceithearnaigh: suddenly? Are you new here? The Ceann Comhairle salary has been a recurring topic on here for the past week at least
@Dermot Blaine: If he gets it will he take all the money?
@Tristan Ua Ceithearnaigh: That’s hilarious it’s been discussed for the entire week with SF supporters saying it’s outrageous now they want it …..have SF no integrity left? Not that they had much to begin with
@Tristan Ua Ceithearnaigh: do u make it up as u go along
There is always danger afoot when the SF leader praises a member of the party.
Just another fat slob who keeps pigging at the taxpayer trough. Not only did he spend 50,000 euro of Dáil money on printing cartridges, he also tried to claim expenses to do up one of the bathrooms in his house, he sent a parcel-bomb to a British army office which exploded and severely injured two off-duty soldiers, seven of his campaign staff were arrested and jailed for being part of the IRA and to top it all off, he’s a virulent antisemite who openly supports Hamas. The only place that he deserves to be is in a holding cell in Guantanamo Bay.
@Frank O’Hara: he is truly a disgusting excuse for a man
@Hot Jim:
He looks like Chief Wigham from the simpsons
@Frank O’Hara: he did not send a parcel bomb to anyone, it was sent to the office of An Phoblacht by unionist paramilitaries, where he worked as a journalist, he carried it outside where it subsequently exploded injuring two British soldiers. Facts matter.
@Darius Guppy: He sent a parcel-bomb to a British army office that exploded and severely injured two off-duty soldiers. By virtue of carrying the bomb to the building and letting it detonate, he is responsible for sending it! He chose not to dispose of it in a responsible manner and instead deliberately put people in harm’s way.
If he gets it FFG will only need one tame independent for an overall majority…
@lesidees: I thought he would have to vote in favour of the Government too if there was a tied vote on an issue. That would be fun.
@Paul O’Mahoney: Impartial allegedly but no, in a split vote the Ceann Comhairle has the deciding vote. Surely if it’s neutrality they want it should be anyone from a party.
@Brian D’Arcy: No better read the constitution….
@Paul O’Mahoney: I think the ceann comhairle has to vote for the status quo if there is a tie – so if it’s a vote on new government legislation they vote against. But I could be wrong.
On the numbers, if SF or any other opposition TD is Ceann Comhairle, then the total of all non-FFG TDs is 87. If one of those switches sides then FFG has a majority
@lesidees: Remember the early 80s , 3 Governments in 18 months, Ceann Comhairle was always non party I think and that was because he had to preserve the government, legislation been rejected usually meant another election then and it really was like have an extra seat . Ceann Comhaile are meant to be a political when in office and must persevere the Government as he constitutionally is required too.
That’s my understanding
@Paul O’Mahoney: you may be right. Legally/constitutionally I think the CC can vote whichever way they want, but by convention they don’t
@lesidees: They can’t be responsible for taking down a government they don’t have the constitutional right , they can’t vote unless it’s a tie .Its been a while but I thought it was based on the American Senate, casting vote by VP if a tie…….
Anyhow it’s all probably academic.
Gurrier from Sandymount with a dodgy past
Ó Snodaigh is Irish for hankerchief.
Ffs Sinn Féin’s circus and she is bringing in the monkeys
lol
@Hot Jim: Says a man who was slagged off and then kept it as his nickname. Dome chancer still sporting a ‘tache, it ain’t the 1980′s, son.
@Brian D’Arcy: don’t cry lol
As they all look to keep their seat and get another of their own party candidate elected, with the votes they will not need in the next election!
@Gary Kearney: Any Ceann Comhairle gets that, is that new information to you, and yet come on here preaching, strange logic.
@Brian D’Arcy: And will you be happy when he has to support the Government if there’s a tied vote in the Dail? Because he has to.
Nope……
Which part of the Irish electorate don’t want you to govern us do the shinners not get
Looking at the comments on here has made me realise why I haven’t looked at the journal for 12 moths end of.
There are many things I’d love to write about this man, but all of the printing ink, seems to have dissapeared.
The election result did not give SF any role in Government, so best leave it to the winners, and concentrate all elected TD’s on the critical work of holding whatever Government to account. No effective political impact is gained from this CC role.
So happy to have no interest in this beyond posting this silly comment.
@offside again: Yawn ….
have your say