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Sam Boal

Central Bank forecasts strong growth and drop in unemployment as economy shrugs off Omicron

Economic activity is back to pre-pandemic levels but inflation looms large.

DESPITE THE EMERGENCE of the Omicron variant of Covid-19 Ireland’s economy has proven resilient with demand growing and unemployment falling, the Central Bank has said.

Published this morning, the Central Bank’s latest Quarterly Economic Bulletin suggests the economy has largely shaken off the worst effects of the Covid-19 crisis.

The report notes that the economy is already back to its pre-pandemic level and forecasts that gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 8.7% this year and modified domestic demand will grow by 7%.

Employment is also predicted to grow strongly, with the unemployment rate on track to be below 5% through 2024.

However, it’s not all good news as some aspects of the economy – notably hospitality and entertainment– are still suffering significant costs due to Covid.

The rate of inflation is also set to get higher in the near term due to disruption to global supply chains, surging demand and the rise in energy prices.

The Central Bank anticipates it will then ease as acute pandemic-related effects and energy price growth diminish in importance.

The economy continued to pick up momentum during most of the second half of last year, with strong employment growth and domestic spending.

The disruption caused by the emergence of Omicron failed to derail this momentum and the quarterly update sees a more rapid reduction in the unemployment rate over the coming years than in previous forecasts. 

The bulletin notes that the resilience of the economy through the pandemic and better-than-expected corporation tax revenues, has resulted in a marked improvement in the outlook for the public finances.

Mark Cassidy, Director of Economics and Statistics at the Central Bank, cautioned that some aspects of the economy are in a better position than others.

“With strong growth in employment and activity, the economy is already back to its pre-pandemic level, and we expect it will reach its potential level of activity over our forecast horizon to 2024.

“The aggregate data mask the fact that some parts of the economy, particularly hospitality and the arts, are still bearing significant costs arising from Covid,” Cassidy said.

The Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform, Michael McGrath, yesterday informed the Cabinet that total overall gross voted expenditure last year was €87.5 billion.

This was €1.4 billion (1.5%) below the full year allocation and €2.3 billion (2.6%) ahead of the 2020 end year position. 

“Notwithstanding the improving Covid situation, Government recognises the importance of not having a cliff edge in terms of supports,” McGrath said.

“We have taken a prudent approach to Budget 2022, providing €3.1 billion additional funding for measures to address the challenges of Covid in the department’s estimates for this year.

“A further €3.9 billion is being held in reserve to be allocated during 2022 as needed. This has ensured that the necessary resources are available to extend the key support measures in response to Covid,” McGrath added.

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    Mute Gerry Ivie
    Favourite Gerry Ivie
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    May 9th 2014, 8:40 PM

    Meanwhile, the fatcat bond holders were compensated fully. Didn’t happen though when ordinary working men and women were persuaded by Mary O Rourke to beg borrow or steal to buy shares in Eircom…..

    96
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    Mute Michael G O'Reilly
    Favourite Michael G O'Reilly
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    May 9th 2014, 10:31 PM

    You may be sure that the majority of the managers and higher level workers lost out on nothing . As usual Mulvey, an ex trade union leader, is a disgrace !

    23
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    Mute Philip
    Favourite Philip
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    May 9th 2014, 8:46 PM

    Bloody whingers they were happy when the bank was doing well.
    They were happy when the bonuses were coming in.
    Lucky to be getting anything should only be statutory and be glad of it.

    58
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    Mute Patrick O'Rourke
    Favourite Patrick O'Rourke
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    May 9th 2014, 8:45 PM

    Frankly, they suffer because they are playing golf with the wrong crowd

    54
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    Mute scooter mcgavin
    Favourite scooter mcgavin
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    May 9th 2014, 8:47 PM

    My heart bleeds

    50
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    Mute gerbreen
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    May 9th 2014, 9:40 PM

    No bank in receipt of state funds should have been allowed to offer anything beyond statutory redundancy. Maybe not a reflection on the person but the company was dead. I await with interest to see where John Moran pops up now he has allowed recapitalisation of banks.

    46
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    Mute Rehabmeerkat
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    May 9th 2014, 10:25 PM

    Staff who resigned not entitled to redundancy… Shock Horror

    30
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    Mute Kevin Brady
    Favourite Kevin Brady
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    May 9th 2014, 8:52 PM

    my dad got his mortgage from anglo when it was a fella in an office.he got €4000 to build the house in dublin, and in the height the house was worth €650,000. in walkinstown. mental stuff

    25
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    Mute Chewey Bacca
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    May 9th 2014, 9:46 PM

    But he built it in the rare old times yeah ?

    15
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    Mute Jonny Martin
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    May 9th 2014, 10:08 PM

    Anglo Irish Bank never offered residential mortgages

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    Mute Kevin Brady
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    May 9th 2014, 10:18 PM

    rare old times is right mate. even in walkintown… the house is big and had an extension with utility room and jax. it really makes ye remember how crazy it all was

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    Mute Kate Foley
    Favourite Kate Foley
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    May 10th 2014, 2:19 AM

    Maybe I’m Missing something, but if you leave a job for a better offer, even if the company you work for is in trouble, you are not entitled to any redundancy. How is this even an issue for reporting in the media????

    23
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    Mute Andrew Potts
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    May 9th 2014, 10:26 PM

    I have no sympathy for Anglo staff they did a crap job building a busted bank, paid themselves well and the country was left holding a bill for their collective stupidity. Just suck it up the same as contractors who never got paid or small business that went bust. I shared a lift with a stupid girl who had worked for Anglo and she could see no connection with the loss of services in society and her former company’s bad business decisions

    20
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    Mute Deirdre Whelehan
    Favourite Deirdre Whelehan
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    May 9th 2014, 10:05 PM

    Comments closed for Seanie et pals court case-but open for actual current staff working 9-5 same as u-shame on you Journal

    17
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    Mute Owen Kennedy
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    May 9th 2014, 9:47 PM

    Good. Finally a little bit of justice. It appears the country is slowly releasing its head from its anoos

    13
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    Mute Kate Foley
    Favourite Kate Foley
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    May 10th 2014, 2:21 AM

    Maybe I’m Missing something, but if you leave a job for a better offer, especially if the company you work for is in trouble, you’re not entitled to reduntancy!!!!!!

    10
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    Mute Jeffrey McMahon
    Favourite Jeffrey McMahon
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    May 10th 2014, 12:24 AM

    “The reason for this, according to the IBOA, is because creditors of the IBRC could legally pursue payments made to those who left early.”

    Excellent. They can go after Fitzpatrick then, biggest payout in one person right there.

    6
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    Mute mark o leary
    Favourite mark o leary
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    May 9th 2014, 10:28 PM

    The lapdogs for the leprechauns who ruined the country,let them starve,call it the Anglo famine.

    4
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