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Experts have said the use of high-protection facemasks on public transport and in crowded spaces - both indoors and outdoors - would have an impact but a mandatory policy has been ruled out by government. Leah Farrell/RollingNews.ie

Official Covid case numbers 'just the tip of the iceberg' as subvariants lead to summer surge

Last week there was a more than 50% jump in reported case numbers.

AS SUBVARIANTS OF the Omicron strain of Covid-19 cause a rise in official case numbers, experts have said the true picture may be significantly worse. 

According to the latest Health Protection Surveillance Centre (HSPC) report, the Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants are replacing the previously dominant BA.2 variant, which spread across Ireland in late 2021.

Between 12 and 18 June some 10,435 cases were reported, the HPSC said. This is an increase of 52.6% compared to  the previous week when there were 6,837 confirmed Covid-19 cases notified.

The positivity rate for Covid-19 tests has also risen compared to the previous week, with 29.6% of PCR tests returning positive compared to 24.5%.

There were also 13,059 positive antigen tests reported through the HSE’s antigen test portal, compared to 8,808 cases the previous week.

Speaking to The Journal, Dr Kim Roberts, virology lecturer at Trinity College Dublin, said this data, while it provides an indication of higher levels of transmission, is potentially missing a significant proportion of actual cases due to current PCR test eligibility.

“I think we do need to be aware that, because of the policy change around testing, we’re only being given a snapshot of the numbers, we’re not getting a full picture of how much transmission there is in the community,” she said.

“We have to err on the side of caution and realise that there is a lot of transmission taking place in the community, the official figures are just the tip of the iceberg and we have no idea how big that iceberg is.

“What that means is that we really don’t know how big a wave could be. Hopefully the impact on hospital cases will be reduced by the vaccine but in terms of disruption to work and education, that’s not clear.”

Currently PCR tests are only available to those who have symptoms and:

  • are age 55 or older and have not had a Covid-19 vaccine booster dose
  • have a high-risk medical condition
  • have a weak immune system (immunocompromised)
  • live in the same household as a person who has a weak immune system or provide support or care for them
  • are pregnant
  • are a healthcare worker

Those who have a positive antigen test and need a Covid-19 Recovery Cert can also book a PCR test. Antigen tests results can be registered with the HSE but this is a voluntary system.

Dr Roberts said the country is in a better position than it was last summer because a significant proportion of the population has had multiple doses of a vaccine. However she expressed concern that many people who are eligible for another booster jab have not taken it up.

“It is worth it, for those who are eligible, to get the booster as soon as possible because there is a lot of virus around,” she said.

Dr Roberts said it is more difficult now to make predictions about Covid trends as the level of data available is not the same as it was in earlier stages of the pandemic.

“We don’t know what’s driving this current potential next wave. What’s interesting is that the age group testing positive is 25-45 and that suggests transmission is happening in workplaces and possibly socialising,” she said.

We’re not seeing whether there’s been transmission in schools because of the testing criteria so when schools close we don’t know whether that will have an impact and slow transmission.

“It’s difficult to see, if it’s in workplaces and socialising, what’s needed to bring it down. We’re in a different phase of the pandemic now so there’s a change in what the HSE and government are wanting in terms of Covid transmission.”

Pressure on hospitals and primary care

Despite vaccination levels across the country, hospitals have been under pressure recently and some have been discouraging patients from attending their Emergency Departments where possible.

Over the last two weeks the number of people with Covid-19 in hospital has more than doubled. While as many as half of Covid patients in hospitals may not have been admitted due to their Covid symptoms, health officials have pointed out that the same infection prevention controls are required and this puts pressure on hospital resources. 

Yesterday there were 697 patients with Covid-19 in hospital – up from 360 just two weeks ago – and 21 of those were in intensive care units. 

In the community GPs have also felt the surge, Dr Denis McCauley, Chair of the Irish Medical Organisation’s GP Committee told The Journal.

“We are still deeply involved for two reasons; we’re seeing all the people with Covid and there is a certain level of immunisation we’re doing as well. We have interaction with the HSE on this weekly, in fact there was a meeting this morning,” he said.

What we have at the moment are subvariants that are very infections and more face-to-face contact between people as they getting back to living again. It’s a very transmissible virus, people are taking fewer precautions and previous infection doesn’t protect you.

He said anxiety about catching the virus has eased across all age groups and while this is understandable, it has contributed to a reluctance among older age groups to get another booster. 

Health officials have said that more than half of Covid patients in hospital have not received their booster and over a third never received a vaccine at all. 

“If they get their vaccine between now and the end of July then it’ll be perfect timing to get a further protective vaccine with the flu vaccine in October and that is the most important one,” Dr McCauley said. 

He said aside from hospitalisations, GPs are still hearing from patients in the community who are “knocked flat” by the virus as well as those with long Covid symptoms for weeks after their initial infection. 

The reintroduction of a mandatory mask-wearing policy may not have much success, he said, as compliance would likely be an issue and the use of FFP2 masks would be required to make any significant difference.

“A recommendation would be better than something mandatory, but I don’t see that happening either at this moment,” he said.

Protection

Dr Roberts said even without enforced restrictions people can take steps to protect themselves including wearing masks – which is still official advice for public transport and in crowded spaces – ensuring indoor spaces are well ventilated or choosing to socialise outdoors and washing their hands.

“When it comes to wearing masks, it’s important people wear the best mask they can get a hold of,” she said.

“The surgical masks and simple cloth masks don’t really give much protection if you’re breathing in the virus so you’re looking for the FFP2 masks or N95 masks and they should be well fitted, snug to the face around your nose and mouth to give you the best protection.

“It’s worth remembering that the virus has evolved and changed over the last two and a half years. It is better at transmitting from person to person than it was at the start of the pandemic, that means it’s harder to reduce transmission and we have to work harder using as many different transmission-reducing strategies as possible.”

She said it is also important for people to tell those they have been in contact with if they have symptoms and test positive on an antigen test so that they know they were exposed.

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26 Comments
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    Mute B-bob
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    Apr 27th 2017, 6:18 AM

    45% of the population is paying tax for
    100% of the population , how about an article on that

    341
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    Mute Revolting Peasant
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    Apr 27th 2017, 9:23 AM

    @B-bob: I know, 55% so piss poorly paid they’re not in the tax net. What hope is there for a sustainable society with those kind of statistics.

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    Mute Chris Kirk
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    Apr 27th 2017, 9:30 AM

    @B-bob: Stating the obvious when around 50% of the population are either children or pensioners.

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    Mute Jho Harris
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    Apr 27th 2017, 10:03 AM

    @Revolting Peasant: Those figures are off, few if any non nationals recognise the necessary to get involved with information by it The CSO of whoever. They like to bring their relatives etc to work for awfully low money. If you can snare an illegal you can pay way below the minimum wage, nor they want fair treatment on employment but they don’t practice it themselves. Now that is an area of exploitation I would like to see exposed.

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    Mute Christopher Gardiner
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    Apr 27th 2017, 11:43 AM

    @Revolting Peasant: well said. The so called middle income earners and wealth y like to think they keep us all in existence.

    11
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    Mute Rosa Parks
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    Apr 27th 2017, 7:38 PM

    @B-bob: Misleading because when indirect taxes are taken account of, the bottom 10% pay the same percentage of their income (27-9%) in tax.

    3
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    Mute Rosa Parks
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    Apr 27th 2017, 7:38 PM

    @Rosa Parks: The same percentage as the top 10% .

    2
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    Mute John Flood
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    Apr 27th 2017, 6:46 AM

    OR on the positive side – “90% of workers earn more than minimum wage!”

    159
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    Mute Gerard Heery
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    Apr 27th 2017, 8:01 AM

    @John Flood: after tax there’s alot of workers on minimum wage don’t trust any government figures there records are useless to say the least!

    75
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    Mute alphanautica
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    Apr 27th 2017, 8:48 AM

    @Gerard Heery: You might be on to something there; not trusting any government figures and being on the minimum wage are clearly correlated. Wearing a tin hat to interviews might be a factor..

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    Mute John Flood
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    Apr 27th 2017, 9:41 AM

    @Gerard Heery: If we had a flat tax, household earners up to perhaps 30K would not pay any taxes. But that would be progressive and we aren’t progressive when it takes 21 years to get a new children’s hospital, are we?

    5
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    Mute Juan Venegas
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    Apr 27th 2017, 11:01 AM

    @John Flood: There are a lot of people earning €10 or €11 per hour, just a few cents per hour more than the minimum wage.

    17
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    Mute winston smith
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    Apr 27th 2017, 6:56 AM

    Won’t this always be the case no matter what the minimum wage?…unless we introduce Communism. If we continue to focus on ‘the plight’ of those at the bottom of the wage league no matter what their ability or qualifications we will create wage inflation and make ourselves uncompetitive once again and push up unemployment instead.

    106
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    Mute Fionn Bohane
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    Apr 27th 2017, 7:09 AM

    Wouldn’t wage inflation create general inflation so there would be more money around?

    25
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    Mute Michael Doyle
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    Apr 27th 2017, 7:15 AM

    @Fionn Bohane: this only works in an environment where you are not trading with other countries.
    Wage inflation will increase prices and available funds WITHIN IRELAND. If prices increase in Ireland more than elsewhere, then we become less attractive for incoming tourists, incoming job expansions, and more Irish money leaves the country to buy cheaper foreign alternatives. We become less competitive relative to our neighbours. This has a downward pressure on economic activity and employment.

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    Mute Ben McArthur
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    Apr 27th 2017, 7:16 AM

    @Fionn Bohane: General inflation means that the money you have is worth less.

    13
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    Mute Chris Kirk
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    Apr 27th 2017, 9:35 AM

    @Fionn Bohane: There would be more money around if companies paid their fair share of corporation tax instead of hiring acountants to dodge paying.

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    Mute Christopher Gardiner
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    Apr 27th 2017, 11:46 AM

    @winston smith: So we carry on as normal. What you are saying is yes they are miserable and poor but sure thats life. No sorry but that attitude will be tackled head on.

    3
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    Mute Jonathan Yeo
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    Apr 27th 2017, 7:17 AM

    And working people can’t afford food

    Why are you voting FG or FF

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    Mute mickmc
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    Apr 27th 2017, 8:14 AM

    @Jonathan Yeo: Because there is no creditable alternative.

    29
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    Mute George Beckett
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    Apr 27th 2017, 8:56 AM

    @Jonathan Yeo: yes no alternative.
    I hate the brown envelopes corruption in FF/FG, but there is nobody else.
    If SF got in I would be paying 70% in tax and would leave the country, its bad enough it’s already 55%. Yet people think you ‘deserve’ the high taxes as it’s unfair you worked that hard to earn a good living. Not to mention the amount of IRA terrorists still within the party.
    Don’t even get me started on the AAA or whatever they’re called and the rest of those populist idiots.

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    Mute Christopher Gardiner
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    Apr 27th 2017, 11:53 AM

    @George Beckett: Ok your comment shows your are terrified of anything left. Thats good enough for me. They get my vote. Any party who upsets the estabishment gets my vote.

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    Mute UpThereAndHereAsWell
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    Apr 27th 2017, 1:53 PM

    @Christopher Gardiner: I agree. I like to think I’m completely impartial, but in recent years time and time again I’ve heard only SF stand up for the rights of the people in this country in Dail Eireann. They wanted to burn the bondholders.. They want to abolish water charges. Them 2 alone are enough for me to vote for them. And if you really want to get into past crimes just look at what the current governments have done in recent years..

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    Mute Carl O Maoláin
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    Apr 27th 2017, 6:31 AM

    Dobby building nice new apartments, upon which he’ll pay no tax.

    60
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    Mute Obi
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    Apr 27th 2017, 6:37 AM

    @Carl O Maoláin: What’s your point?

    20
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    Mute Chef Harold
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    Apr 27th 2017, 7:38 AM

    @Carl O Maoláin: How much tax do you think his business should pay on that property development?

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    Mute Carl O Maoláin
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    Apr 27th 2017, 9:25 AM

    @Obi: @Obi: B-bob reckons 55% of the population are not paying tax. They are living here, working here, paying taxes here every day of their lives. O’ Brien lives in Malta, pays nothing here. You know my point.

    9
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    Mute Carl O Maoláin
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    Apr 27th 2017, 9:38 AM

    @Chef Harold: At least as much as Apple. Won’t he be creating employment for the 55% with his development?!

    2
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    Mute Christopher Gardiner
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    Apr 27th 2017, 11:51 AM

    @Obi: Tax evasion. Thats the point/.

    1
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    Mute Stephen Devlin
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    Apr 27th 2017, 1:12 PM

    @Christopher Gardiner: tax avoidance you mean?

    1
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    Mute Michael Doyle
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    Apr 27th 2017, 7:04 AM

    1.5% are earning under the minimum wage. So much for the moaners usual line that the drop in unemployment is all due to cheap job-activation schemes. At a maximum, only 3% of the 50% drop in unemployment can be explained by such schemes.

    23
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    Mute Christopher Gardiner
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    Apr 27th 2017, 11:55 AM

    @Michael Doyle:are you that slow. Did you ever do a ce scheme of jobbride only to finish and be Forced by social welfare to go back on a meaningless cheap ce scheme and jobbridge. Then repeat year after year. Thats the people you call employed. 40% of those who work in this country are below the minimum wage.

    15
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    Mute Michael Doyle
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    Apr 27th 2017, 12:19 PM

    @Christopher Gardiner:
    Where do you get the 40% figure from. It seems quite specific, so I assume you can provide the source of the data.
    My 1.5% figure is based on the survey describes in the article. 22,500 of the 155,100 on or below the minimum wage were actually below it. If 155100 is 10%, then 22,500 is 1.5%.

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    Mute mad_fluffy
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    Apr 27th 2017, 10:44 AM

    I’m sure it’s way more than that… and what about the people working on 0 contracts… a complete joke..

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    Mute Alan Nolan
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    Apr 27th 2017, 9:06 AM

    Everything is getting more expensive and the wages are getting worse. It’s an employer’s market , our health care sucks unless you are unemployed too.. you can rent or buy a house where you want to live, you’re borderline better off on the Labour than take a minimum wage or even a Euro more, rent allowance, medical card and free. College education. Country is messed up. People who are willing to work for 10 Euro or less should be rewarded with options of free education and reduced health care

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    Mute Dave Thomas
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    Apr 27th 2017, 9:27 AM

    @Alan Nolan: remember when you used to work and pay prsi and get healthcare too. People blaming the unemployed because the government have taken everything away bit by bit just let’s their incompetence of the hook.

    16
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    Mute Christopher Gardiner
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    Apr 27th 2017, 12:02 PM

    @Dave Thomas: Isn’t it amazing that those who never were unfortunate to end up unemployed are the first out of the box to tell everyone the wonderful free life they have. Try living on the Fuc*ing dole and pay a mortgage and bills on 188 euro a week. They make me sick. I worked for 30 years before unemployment and its a meaning drudgery of a life depending on social welfare and Fianna Gael made life on social welfare beyond unbearable and cruel by cutting hundreds of supports overnight. Joan Burton alone destroyed the social welfare system that was built up over years. Remember you might be working now like I was but you have no idea what lies around the corner. Wait until the day you are facing a sign that says Entreo office Thats the day your life ends. They will make it their mission to destroy your life. No matter what you contributed to the system you will be treated the same as if you never worked and have to come on here and see people calling you sc^m for being unemployed. Thats the worst part. Looking at comments from people who never had to face social welfare on their high horse like saviours of the world. Be careful. Karma is a bitvh.

    27
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    Mute Kal Ipers
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    Apr 27th 2017, 9:38 AM

    The spin on this article is so weird. They try to make it all sound bad. In the end of the day a large portion is part time and young people likely studying. They intentionally made it difficult to see the details. In the end of the day you will find very few people trying to live in minimum wage as the sole income to a household.
    I don’t see why somebody doing an unskilled job that requires very limited education should pay above minimum wage.

    10
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    Mute Caitriona Smith
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    Apr 27th 2017, 10:20 AM

    @Kal Ipers: I am a student who works part time. I have rent to pay, transport costs, food costs, utility bills etc just like the rest of the population as well as having enormous fees to pay. Obviously this can’t be done on a part time minimum wage job so I have debt to pay back as well. Now tell me again how I’m an uneducated unskilled person who doesn’t deserve more than minimum wage.

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    Mute Kal Ipers
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    Apr 27th 2017, 10:39 AM

    @Caitriona Smith: Why would you even think you could afford to pay for college with a part time job? Just because you are going to college doesn’t mean your part time job is a skilled job. So yes I am happy to say you don’t deserve more than minimum wage unless you can explain your job requires particular levels of education and can’t be easily replaced. Skilled and unskilled labour has specific definitions. You can be a skilled cocktail maker but it is still classed as an unskilled job.

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    Mute UpThereAndHereAsWell
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    Apr 27th 2017, 1:59 PM

    @Kal Ipers: A job is a job. And a human being is a human being. You sound like a greedy employer looking for any excuse to cut wages and people’s quality’s of life. shame on you

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    Mute Kal Ipers
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    Apr 27th 2017, 2:02 PM

    @UpThereAndHereAsWell: Payment for jobs is determined by avilaibility of capable workers. You are suggesting somebody flipping burgers should get paid the same as a doctor. No need to cut wages they are minimum wage jobs and the least payment allowable. Are you going to pay more for everything to deal with wage increases? Stop going to businesses that pay minimum wage?

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    Mute Cindy Crawford
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    Apr 27th 2017, 9:05 PM

    @Kal Ipers commented: Just because someone doesn’t have a 3rd level education doesn’t mean they should be paid a crap wage. The minimum wage is set too low. I would like to see it at €12 p.h. Everybody’s job is important otherwise the position wouldn’t be there.

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    Mute Harry N
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    Apr 27th 2017, 11:34 PM

    @Caitriona Smith: agree, everyone deserves a decent standard of living and it is impossible to have one on minimum wage or slightly above. Doesn’t matter what the level of skill is, all work is valuable, there’s a lot of people making obscene money just because they award outrageous salaries to themselves.

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    Mute conriel
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    Apr 27th 2017, 8:40 AM

    What are the figures for . private and public sector on minimum wage?

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    Mute mursim
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    Apr 27th 2017, 1:17 PM

    I would like a record kept of who the minimum wage paying employers are and for this to be public knowledge.

    Also employers who use zero hour contracts need to be charge extra tax for doing so – to offset the cost to the human taxpayer.

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    Mute Kal Ipers
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    Apr 27th 2017, 1:44 PM

    @mursim: how do you not know already?Most retail jobs, fast-food staff, bar staff,cleaners etc… Are you going to stop using them now? Zero hour contracts have their place and have been in use for decades. Any venue has to use staff like that as the work isn’t consistent. One week the place is booked everyday and the next only one booking. Do you expect them to keep staff paid the same?

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    Mute xor
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    Apr 27th 2017, 10:20 AM

    How are the CSO at maths?

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    Mute xor
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    Apr 27th 2017, 11:06 AM

    @xor: Or maybe better question, how are they at honesty?

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    Mute Rosa Parks
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    Apr 27th 2017, 7:42 PM

    This blog shows that the bottom 10% pay more as a percentage of their income in tax including Income tax/PRSI/VAT/USC/ than the next 3 deciles individually. http://www.ronanlyons.com/2012/04/10/paying-tax-in-ireland-where-the-richest-and-poorest-pay/

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    Mute Christopher Gardiner
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    Apr 27th 2017, 11:42 AM

    And the disgusting thing about Fianna Gael is they use these figures to justify their evil existence in government. Jobs not worth a F**k. 2 bit employment with no right or proper pay. Thats what Fianna Gael calls jobs and they use fake figures to justify lies. Thats the Fianna Gael way. Lie through your teeth because they believe the Irish are dopes and believe them. Some of have ye well copped on. With your two bit job schemes taking people off the live register for 6 weeks on so called schemes to keep your buddies in jobs in training centres and those people leave with Zero from these so called schemes.

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