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MET ÉIREANN’S HEAD of forecasting has defended the warnings put in place when Storm Lorenzo hit Ireland earlier this year, but said “we were kind of slow to say there will not be a hurricane”.
Speaking to TheJournal.ie for an upcoming episode of our podcast The Explainer, Evelyn Cusack said that the forecaster was a “victim of our own success” given how sophisticated its models are at identifying potential events more than a week in advance.
Criticism was levelled at Met Éireann after Lorenzo came and went, with one complainant to the forecaster accusing it of “alarmist commentary”.
In its defence, the forecaster said the media had over-sensationalised the potential impact of Lorenzo in the run-up to the weather event.
Speaking earlier this month, Cusack said commentary on social media contributed to the suggestion the storm would be much more severe than it was.
‘Powerful hurricane’
Lorenzo was described a “large and powerful hurricane” as it began to track across the Atlantic towards the end of September.
As it approached Ireland, a meeting of the National Emergency Coordination Group took place on 1 October as agencies closely monitored Lorenzo’s progress.
Minister Eoghan Murphy said all departments were on standby to attend further meetings at short notice “given the uncertainty associated with the track and evolution of Hurricane Lorenzo”.
Later that same day, while stressing the severity of the storm when it hit Ireland was “still to be determined”, Murphy said that “very significant storm wave surged” were expected which would be “quite ferocious” and “very dangerous”.
A number of outlets reported that Met Éireann hadn’t yet ruled out issuing a red alert warning. Red alerts – which are described as “rare and very dangerous weather conditions” that bring a risk to life – have been issued nationwide in the past for Storm Emma in 2018 and Storm Ophelia the year before.
Met Éireann frequently issues advisories up to a week out for weather events – like in this case – but doesn’t issue warnings until around 48 hours before a weather event is due to hit.
This is because of weather models that track all the possibilities a storm may take. Given the changeability, Met Éireann can be most certain of how severe the effect will be up to two days before it hits.
In the event of Lorenzo, less severe Status Orange warnings were issued for five counties, with Status Yellow warnings in place for the rest of the country.
‘There will not be a hurricane, madam’
Cusack said: “It was a hurricane – definitely – when it was down thousands and thousands of miles away.
“In a way we’re victims of our own success. I’m talking about weather forecasters. So the 10-day track, the nine-day track, the eight-day track – [Lorenzo] was heading towards western Europe,” she said.
But of course, we never know until closer to the time [if] it’s a possibility. In fact, the strike areas five days ahead gave it a probability of the strike being anywhere between Greenland and northern Spain.
Cusack said that it was difficult for her as head of forecasting and for her forecasters because “all the social media were saying ‘Lorenzo’s going to hit Ireland, winds of 150km per hour in five days”.
“I was saying ‘no, no, no, please’,” she said. “Thinking back to Michael Fish [saying] ‘there will not be a hurricane madam’.”
Fish is the BBC broadcaster who famously dismissed the chance of a hurricane before the Great Storm of 1987 hit Britain and France.
Cusack added: “We were kind of slow to say there will not be a hurricane. We didn’t issue warnings until the day before. That’s how uncertain it was. And just then it was yellow and orange [warnings].
Even now people are saying ‘Evelyn, why were you forecasting a hurricane?’ and you know we weren’t. Social media was… and everyone’s getting forecasting online and it’s good in a way but don’t be forecasting hurricanes first.
With reporting from Nicky Ryan
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Victims of their own delusions I’d say would be more like it
@John Kelly: exactly,,this woman seems to think she’s a celebrity working for Met Eireann..what harm she couldn’t tell you the time never mind the weather forecast
@John Kelly: Well your wrong and I know from a friend that works in the UK met office that they have high regard for the Irish met services. Hundreds of Fisher men and women depend on the weather service daily and literly depend on it for their lives. But if they somehow disrupted your garden party sometime you could always talk to Joe.
@RAYZ88: Another genius who hasn’t a clue regarding the current limitations of weather forecasting and thinks Met Eireann should be able to issue a 100% accurate forecast for his back yard a week in advance.
@John Kelly: your an idiot. Please god nothing will ever come of an event to harm you. They just can’t win, a warning and then nothing happens, they are clueless, event with no warning and their criticised.
Take note of the warning an Plough on boy, don’t be acting as its an inconvenience to you
@John Kelly: hit the sherry a bit early?
@RAYZ88: time to cut back on the booze?
@RJ: If you read some of the reports that came out at the time, you’d see they were very sensational. Reporting only covered the extreme probabilities and never the likely scenarios
@RAYZ88: and how are you doing as a meteorologist did you study for it or stick your head out the window and predict.
@John Kelly: good man John looking forward to your weather forecast sure your an expert
@In my opinion: In fairness, Met Eireann don’t develop the weather models any more, they but them in. Their role is to interpret and communicate the results. Imo, they have performed poorly in this role although it does appear to be improving
@John Kelly: Faugheen is FORECAST to win tomorrow in Limerick. But will he?
Its all part and parcel of living in a society with an ever increasing % of snowflakes who need government warnings and assurance to help them get through their day to day lives.
I think met eireann do a fantastic job. It’s the red top tabloids with the lurid headlines flooding social media with sensational stories, subsequently shared by eejits, that cause the damage
It’s the the media quit their sensationalism too. Doesn’t help at all.
Not too many jobs let you be wrong half the time and let you keep your job. Seriously though, I wouldn’t want their job. Extremely complex and getting more so with the changing climate.
@darrenphughes: its interesting how unbalanced any discussion around met eireann always becomes – they have a difficult job and take a lot of stick but in many cases they deserve criticism and their tone is always very very defensive and almost an arrogance that they are beyond criticism , they are not , they do issue wayy too many ” warnings” too frequently these days and even in this article she claims the issue the warnings 48 hours in advance – but just last week in galway they issued an orange alert at 8 pm an hour before damaging Storm hit the west – they need to be able to for once say ” hey we could do better ” but they never accept constructive criticism well imo
Merry Christmas all and thanks to Met Éireann for a great job- we need to commend where Ireland has got to in last number of years; people still die in storms and its usually cos of unpredictable secondary events like falling trees or debris hitting cars; we as a nation have to accept their job is to predict and anticipate the potential for the worst a storm might be and we need to always heed there warnings even if some turn out to be overcalls. We have no idea how many lives Met Éireann have saved already but best reference would be death rate before their warnings and after per similiar storm- congrats guy and happy Xmas
@Oisin O’Connell: Ditto.
@Oisin O’Connell: An “overcall” is an incorrect forecast & leads to unnecessary worry.
@Locojoe: but it saves lives Joe – think of the children
I live on the west coast and we do get some bad gales with storm force gusts
But I understand met eirainn have to give weather warnings about storms but some of the warnings are nothing more than a storm in a tea cup way over the top
Victims of your own success …..
I’d say use made a deal with major companies never to put a red warning out AGAIN ….
Cost the like of an post and Dublin bus a fortune paying staff for sitting in there house
@Ian O’Rourke: You forgot to finish with ‘in all an anyways’
“A victim of their own success”
Evelyn Cusack little dictatorship is growing exponentially.
Last week she was quoted of saying Met Eireann were the only people entitled to give forcasts and now little Trump propaganda suggests they’re suffering as a result of their own abilities.
Weather reports are over sensationalised but that’s not the fault of met eireann. The fault is at the media that takes the information and decides to use it to scare the living s**t out of people. Sites like this very one is where I level the blame at.
Bitchin about Midlands Weather is not success but desperation at how accurate Cathal Nolan’s forcasts are
@William Bryan: LOL!!
The weather forecast is the same as the racing forecast, sometimes you get it right and sometimes wrong.
they may be accurate for the east coast but they dont bother forecasting for the west or northwest . they are rarely correct
With Global Warming causing our seasonal instability, ie: where is the snow and ice for Christmas and heat and sunshine for Summer gone, Met Eireann are doing their best against the odds. We are after all the most Westerly Island in the Atlantc. So we do get great variations from area to area. We Irish spend more time talking about the weather than any nationality that I know. We think we know it all. But we don’t,and we will know less going forward despite the advanced work of Met Eirannn.
She’s been at the gin again
Almighty God is still in charge
At the beginning of our all day Adoration our priest recited the Litany of the Saints on 3rd October 2019 to avert Lorenzo Storm and Thank God our prayer was answered
It all comes down to moola
Met Eireann are typical of a public sector outfit that have managed to big up their profile. They are in fact useless & get it wrong most of the time. There will however be no consequences for their incorrect forecasts.
They should be all sacked.
@Jimmy Brandon: Why? Would the forecast be different with a different set of meteorologists?
Ms Cusack has a long history of defensivness and evasiveness when it comes to answering any questions relating to forecasting. She is bordering on being a climate change denier. I cannot recall the number of occasions when she poopooed the idea that our changing weather was anything other than “normal”. She now speaks like a politician, from both sides of her mouth. She has managed to bring the once well respected Met Service into disrepute.
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