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SENIOR PUBLIC HEALTH figures have spoken out very strongly against Ireland adopting any strategy akin to “herd immunity” to tackle Covid-19 and made clear it’s not a strategy that will be adopted here.
Pursuing it would ignore the long-term health effects for some people who develop Covid-19, would mean many young people would die and make it more difficult to prevent older and more at-risk populations getting ill and dying from Covid-19.
This concept has been frequently referenced since the beginning of the pandemic, and basically suggests that lockdowns would be avoided by allowing the virus to spread amongst communities while putting in safeguards to protect those most at risk of getting seriously ill or dying from Covid-19.
The hope is that, eventually, a natural immunity to the disease is developed.
In the early days of Covid-19, it appeared the UK government was pursuing such a strategy but that quickly changed as lockdown measures were introduced amid a sharp spike in cases, hospitalisations and deaths.
After being raised at the Oireachtas Special Committee on Covid-19 response earlier, public health officials at tonight’s Department of Health briefing spoke strongly against the idea of pursuing herd immunity.
NPHET’s epidemiological modelling advisory group chair Professor Philip Nolan said tonight there was no guarantee herd immunity would work and is ethically questionable.
“The problem with that entire strategy is first of all there’s no guarantee that we will build up herd immunity to a significant extent by letting the disease travel through young people,” he said.
An awful lot of young people might have to die in order for sufficient infections to occur to get anywhere near it.
Professor Nolan also said that said that “even if it were ethically” appropriate to suggest that more at-risk groups from Covid-19, such as older people, isolate themselves from the rest of the community while such a strategy was being pursued, there’s no guarantee they wouldn’t get the disease.
“I could certainly never advise we take the kind of risks explicit in adopting this kind of strategy that allows this disease to travel through young people with some, in my view, vain hope of protecting older people,” he said. “And also in the unproven hope it will render the population immune for future infection.”
HSE chief clinical officer Dr Colm Henry said the evidence is not justified in people having a sustained immunity after they’ve caught this virus. Specifically referencing safeguards on nursing homes, even the strongest defences wouldn’t protect residents there if the virus was allowed to spread rampantly in the community, he said.
Dr Henry said that isolating older people and letting them “fend for themselves” is “simply not acceptable and has no place in any civilised society”.
Acting chief medical officer Dr Ronan Glynn added that the strategy ignores the increasing evidence around the long-term effects of Covid-19 on people of all ages.
“This disease has consequences for people of all ages. It’s certainly not a strategy that will be adopted in this country,” he said.
These comments echoed comments on herd immunity made earlier today at the Oireachtas Committee.
Addressing TDs, former chief epidemiologist for Sweden and senior World Health Organization figure Dr Johann Giesecke said there was no “100% effective way” of allowing younger populations to catch the disease and also prevent its transmission to older people, particularly in care homes.
He said: “Sweden never had herd immunity as a goal or strategy, but the strategy of protecting the old and vulnerable while allowing some spread in the population has had the by-product of herd immunity.
“I do not agree with the zero-covid approach. I do not believe it is possible or feasible as a solution. We would need to do it in each country in the world. Otherwise, it cannot work. New Zealand managed to go without any cases for 102 days and then had quite an outbreak.”
With reporting from Christina Finn and Michelle Hennessy at the Department of Health
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Covid19 has been widespread for 8 months i’d say in Ireland. Heard immunity has been a fact of life already.
@Damian Moylan: The HSE project in Sligo and Dublin would suggest you’re wrong.
@Damian Moylan: Most likely here since last October, from what I’ve read it got deadlier by March. Since learning Nolan and Glynn were blindly finger pointing each evening with no data to back it up, their ‘expertise’ mean feck all. We dont have to go licking public toilets, we remain smart, use our cop-on, stay safe and consign their part in the governments shambles to the dustbin. Contact tracing only 50% of close contacts, the other half by day 7 and not asking the most important question “where were you” to track down transmission….what a mess. Open up the economy! The misery Governments inept management has facilitated. Some joke
@Damian Moylan: in that case not too long lived. q e d.
@Damian Moylan: You’re wrong.
@Daimhín De Naois: should the app not be doing most of the donkey work when it comes to tracing. I remember we were all lauded for having one of the highest take up rates in the world
@Anne Marie Devlin: an app that sends bogus alerts to supposed close contacts? Doubt it. Government harped on about following South Koreas tracing model. We all heard how it was the key to beating the virus, we did our part, they didnt do theirs and from the time that went quiet they blamed us for existing- the game was up. And now we know that for a fact. It still is. Theyre useless. Over and over again.
@Daimhín De Naois: 100% correct, we follow the advice, masks, distancing, avoid crowds, wash the hands, wipe down the steering wheel, gear lever, all handles and buttons with ipa wipes etc. Not much else we can do!
@Damian Moylan: Completely with you! We stay as we were! Its literally running rampant anyway as they havent been doing contact tracing so…! Time to open up and dont let them cause ever more misery. Stay safe
@LangerDan: Given the high transmittability of this disease i would say you are incorrect. Some of the reported infection and death rates reported on the ECDC website – to which we compare and establish how we are doing and the need f restrictive measures – are increduously low esp. for various countries in Eastern Eu.
@Damian Moylan: why do t you ask Brazil about herd immunity. 138,000 dead because of it
@LangerDan: That test has been shown to not be accurate, significantly understating those with immunity to coronavirus. Be interesting if they could an accurate test across a number of countries with different strategies
@Macca Attack: It is unrealistic to think heard immunity has not been embedded here to a certain extent already unless you think that the measures and lockdowns hitherto have stopped the transmission of the virus in Ireland which is not the case. It is not possible to halt the transmission of this virus. We take practical steps to limit the risk as outlined many times by Nephet, masks, washing hands etcetc but make no mistake this virus is widespread imho.
@Daimhín De Naois: as I suspected. Thanks for the link
@Macca Attack: favellas are to blame for most of that number. Living conditions in them are horrific.
@Damian Moylan: there’s no such thing as “herd immunity to a certain extent”
We either achieve it or we don’t.
Nobody knows/can agree on what %of the population is needed to achieve it. Some say 20% others say 70% minimum, this disease isn’t like anything else we’ve achieved herd immunity with before.
@Damian Moylan: unadulterated wrong
@Damian Moylan: You’re talking pure BS. Firstly it’s “herd” immunity not “heard”. Secondly, you either have herd immunity or you don’t have it; you can’t have herd immunity “to some extent”. You honestly don’t have a clue what you’re on about. It’s a virus. The disease is highly infectious. Herd immunity didn’t word for many other infectious diseases for which vaccinations were ultimately successful. You’re backing a horse with no guarantee of the outcome. Even for those who don’t suffer serious symptoms with Covid there are potential long term consequences. Stop posting nonsense.
@Damian Moylan: exactly!!!!!!!!!
@John R: What I said is a certain portion of the population has developed immunity as the virus has been here a long time already. Stop twisting my words, work on your own spelling and leave out the petulant insults. As I said no amount of lockdowns will eradicate the virus or it would have already disappeared. I also said we need to take care and apply common sense measures to reduce the risk.
@Damian Moylan: he, nor I, twisted your words. You said we’ve achieved herd immunity to a certain extent. What you now describe as having achieved is not herd immunity.
@Damian Moylan: Well, herd immunity has worked well on the common cold and the flu over the last few centuries, Oh wait, no it hasn’t. And they are not even remotely as dangerous.
@Daimhín De Naois: New strains, the original Wuhan strain was much milder than many of the newer strains, currently there at 13 strains, some much more dangerous
@Daimhín De Naois: It is bad, as people don’t follow the procedures, what will it be like when everything is open. A hell of a lot worse.
It is far from running rampant and we were doing great until people got lazy
@Damian Moylan: According to the experts herd immunity has not happened as of yet.
How many more people have to die before it happens, if it happens is anybody’s guess
Maybe Mr Nolan might like to show us the evidence why an awful lot of young people will die, because there is none. Flu kills multiple times more young people than Covid
They’re desperately trying to avoid the inevitable -herd immunity. It’s happening right in front of us for all to see. Despite a spike in cases deaths are low and ICU admissions are tiny.
Interesting take on the testing in the 3 min clip below
@Seamus Hughes: “Flu kills multiple more young people than Covid”
That depends what you class as ‘young’. Once people get to their 30s/40s, Covid becomes much more likely to kill vs. influenza.
Are we prepared to let a disease that is killing middle aged people much more efficiently than influenza circulate among the general population once again, considering the poor knowledge of lasting immunity? Not smart.
@Seamus Hughes: I think it’s a more and more blatant attempt to keep creating hysteria for fear of an enquiry into what they did in the nursing homes in March/April. The people in NPHET have an awful lot to lose if it comes to light.
@ihcalaM: one way or another, herd immunity is inevitable. Doing it quickly and in a controlled manner is the best way.
Something else is going on here with NPHET, there are ulterior motives.
@Seamus Hughes: Yes it’s well proven at this point that Covid is more dangerous than the flu for older populations but less dangerous than the flu for younger age groups. So is Prof Nolan suggesting these age groups face similar draconian restrictions for the flu? The data being shared is selective and not accurate. At least there finally is a debate and things many of us have known for months are finally coming to light.
@Seamus Hughes:
Do you honestly believe that 200+ countries have let their economies crash because of a “FLU” ?
GIVE YOUR HEAD A WOBBLE
@Mark K: NotPHIT are not politicians – they are civil servants – hard to fire. Politicians on the other hand can be voted out at the next election assuming voters remember what they have done.
@Mark K: Why is herd immunity inevitable, exactly? We have no idea whether or not the immunity to C-19 is long-lasting or effective enough to prevent longer term complications upon potential reinfection.
Basing a risky strategy like that on non-existent long term evidence for immunity is absolutely bonkers.
As for ulterior motives, I would be seriously questioning your logic. It seems to me that big business would much prefer NPHET took the Swedish (Brazilian, US, etc.) laissez-faire approach so their profits would stabilise and investor confidence would return.
@Seamus Hughes: It’s a sad state of affairs when the proper scientists can only get on JHB.
@ihcalaM: It’s inevitable because Ireland it’s so contagious. It will spread, one way or another. It cannot be suppressed. In a population with low immunity, all that’s required is 1 positive case. Dublin Airport has 32m through its doors per year.
Im suggesting their ulterior motive is to keep eyes away from what they did in the nursing homes. Preventing the removal of positive residents bordered on criminal, and they know it.
@Declan McArdle: Policies put forward by NPHET for the nursing homes bordered on criminal, and I think they are worried.
@Seamus Hughes: You are right. Total nonsense and disgraceful scare tactics. They keep bombarding us with meaningless case numbers, deaths thankfully almost zero. Its obvious they dont want a solution but want to drag it out until a vaccine arrives. Scammers the lot of them.
@ihcalaM: huh? and this was in May,,,, seems you a bit out of touch…
“American billionaires got $434 billion richer during the pandemic”
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/21/american-billionaires-got-434-billion-richer-during-the-pandemic.html
@ihcalaM:
Per the CDC
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html
Infection Fatality Ratio Scenario 5: Current Best Estimate
0-19 years: 0.00003
20-49 years: 0.0002
50-69 years: 0.005
70+ years: 0.054
@Seamus Hughes: I’m assuming The Journal will have an article later today with the headline “Debunked, No a lot of young people will not have to die”.
Without a an effective vaccine everyone will get the virus sooner or later. We can’t hide from it forever. Virus rates are non existent in most parts of China especially Wuhan as anyone who was vulnerable to getting the virus got it so herd immunity works. We already use herd immunity to protect from other diseases. For example herd immunity protects infants who are too young to be vaccinated from measles. NPHET and the government have painted themselves into a corner with an unsustainable strategy. Where is Philip Nolan’s evidence that all of these young people will die? Making it up as he goes along
@Ian Breathnach: do you really believe 85,000 people in China got the virus out of a population of almost 1.5 billion?
@Syl Farrell: Do you believe their mortality figures?
Exactly. Using China as a basis for a herd immunity strategy is mind-numbing stuff. Try again Syl.
@Syl Farrell: my cousin in Australia says the same lockdown in in place there so don’t take it personal and England is going into lockdown as well
@Syl Farrell: Correct. Well proven now that the flu is more dangerous than Covid for younger populations but these facts aren’t surfaced through the NPHET HSE government set pieces.
@Syl Farrell: herd immunity does not protect infants. Passive immunity does. That’s the transfer of antibodies from mother to baby. Passive immunity for measles, mumps and rubella lasts about a year and then baby receives MMR
@Syl Farrell: Do you have evidence to the contrary that there is any other figure other than 85000? Wuhan having massive pool parties with Djs just a few weeks ago. They shut down for 2 months, got the virus under control and now they’re back to normal. Fools here can’t abide by simple rules to do the same and as the saying goes, we are where we are.
@Syl Farrell: herd immunity with a vaccine is not the same as killing everyone who cannot defend themselves from the covid-19
Herd immunity failed to control TB or Scarlet Fever have been dismal failure and there were similar measures taken as we have today. They were controlled by vaccine and antibiotics and quarantining and even locking infected people up in “sanatoriums” – hope you had not that in mind for covid-19.
At present the HSE (and other studies in other countries) say that only 1 in 3 up to 1 in 10 cases are detected. The study in Ireland of 1 in 3 would indicate 100,000 have been exposed to the virus with just under 1,800 deaths. At his figure 18,000 deaths for 1,000,000 and 90,000 for 5,000,000 at a worst case scenario … on 1 in 10 the figure it would be 330,000 exposed to the virus for 1,800 deaths that would make about 27,000 deaths for exposure to 5,000,000
Of course herd immunity might kick in at 60% so the above figures would need to be modified as they would for an age spread. However the overhead in deaths to achieve herd immunity is, in my opinion, too much to make it a morally valid strategy.
@Syl Farrell: I am chinese, I know how they did lockdown in Wuhan and to other cities when cases showed up, its ZERO tolerance policy literally, still now, because it’s a big country and massive population, life matters for us. Have a look the news on RTÉ today, a story an Irish fella in China “Irishman living in China says life is back to normal there”
@There is no hope for humanity!: I traveled to Nanjing 10 days ago and I can say the Chinese took and take the virus more seriously then any other country. The restrictions are tough to get into the country but when you completed the quarantine and 3 test… you can move around freely without fear to get infected.
@Syl Farrell: Herd immunity has not been proven anywhere in the world to work.
There is a sizeable minority of people who want this to be worse than it is. NPHET seem to be among them.
The more we learn about the disease, the more good news we get – it’s much much less lethal than first thought. Yet, the more good news arrives, the angrier Team Lockdown seem to get.
I posit that they are Fear Addicts. And like any addict, once their drug is been taken away, they get angrier.
Open to other theories.
@Mark K: At present NPHET and this Government are acting like a bunch of controlling Gangsters. Making up information with no peer reviewed information to back it up.
This statement tonight from Nolan is a classic case of creating a fear for them to hide behind, with absolutely nothing to back it up.
This is absolutely disgraceful behaviour from a so called educated fraternity of people who seem to only have their own interests at heart at the expense of the economy and the people of this country. The last time the Fianna Failures and thir Blue Shirt cousins let another entity rule by proxy was with the Catholic Church, allowing them rule the country by proxy. Destroyed kids and adults lives.
This current situation has the smell of the same scenario, history repeating itself. Only now its NPHET abusing their position by Proxy.
When are people going to wake up to this absolutely disgusting depraved behaviour. NPHET need to be taken out of this whole situation. They are causing more problems than they are ever solving.
NPHET and this incompetent Govt have lost the run of themselves.
@PeeedOff: Peer reviewed? Catholic Church?Depraved behaviour? What are you on about? Wanna wait 6 months for peer reviewed info to be published in a medical journal? How about leave the science to the experts and pipe down numbnut. They can only go on the limited info gathered from a new virus as they get it. Look to the USA for what happens with the IQ levels similar to yourself are running the show
Keep pumping that project fear. I smell bull. Author is great! Establishment must love him
@Damian Mac An Bháird: You should get yourself swabbed. An impaired sense of smell affects many with Covid.
@Philip Kavanagh: aye bot boy… sellout
@Damian Mac An Bháird: Bot boy? Not at all. I get to look after Covid patients, do their ABGs, prone them, deal with their families, etc. What do you do, aside from whinge on this platform?
@Philip Kavanagh: gaslighting at its best
In last two months, since 23rd July. 7,849 cases. 32 deaths. Some of which were backdated.
@Monster Munch: would you be happy if one of the 32 were close to you?
@Monster Munch: 0.4% Mortality rate with 95%+ over 65
Yet another headline to strike more fear into those already terrified.
@ed o brien: You think we’re catching every case? Really??
@thomas patrick: Course not. But I wouldn’t be happy if they died for any other reason either. This is a strange response to be honest. We should be rejoicing that the mortality rate is over a tenth less than we expected in February.
@ed o brien: Who is terrified? Or in fear? I don’t know anyone or see anyone that is terrified or in fear. You’re talking out of your hole. We’re in a pandemic, we need to adapt our behaviour temporarily. The shills would have you believe we are all living in Nazi Germany.
@Monster Munch: median age of death is 84. Two years higher than average life expectancy in Ireland.
@Ian Breathnach: I know people who haven’t been outside their door since March. I have a friend in France who has been diagnosed with covid anxiety syndrome. You’d be surprised at the level of severe anxiety surrounding this
@Monster Munch: The other thing is this shows our testing is really being effective. And while we’ll never get every case. This shows they’re not missing many.
@Ian Breathnach: I know and work with loads who are terrified, so not talking out of my hole.
I met a woman in Leitrim who told me that she was a virtual prisoner in her own house due to her 30 something daughter being terrified to leave the house due to covid. Her other family were not allowed enter the house for fear that they would bring it in.
She was cutting her grass and thanked me for stopping to ask for directions and taking time out to talk with her as she was terribly lonely, and only got out once a week to do a weekly shop.
I dont have a sympathetic bone in my body, but my heart went out to her!
How many hundreds or thousands like that are spread across the country?
You are not afraid, nor am I, but plenty are!
@thomas patrick: typical answer.
If 32 people die in car crashes, is ok for you to drive. Well is it. You could kill someone.
Think about that.
@Anne Marie Devlin: that’s a thing?
@thomas patrick: I’m sure if one of the road deaths was someone close to him he wouldn’t support the closure of roads, the banning of cars, or only allowing someone to drive if they ate €9 of food.
@Monster Munch: nearly all were backdated
@nelliekel: I didn’t check but I just knew some were. Any idea how many?
@Monster Munch: It was a projected rate if drastic action was not taken
The average age of death from covid is 84. The VAST majority of young people are completely asymptomatic. They are just outright lying to us now. What’s the motivation? Perhaps an attempt to avert our gaze from their horrific policies in nursing homes in March/April/May?
@Mark K: Afraid their motivation is much more sinister. Someone must come forward and expose these traitors and the evil they stand for.
@Mark K: Oh will you just stop it. There is no fckin conspiracy.
@Seamus Kelly: Traitors? Explain that one to me.
@Ian Breathnach: They are now outright lying to us. Most of us know this. this is pretty new. There hasn’t been such blatant lies before. What is the motivation? Im speculating, but am probably correct.
@Ian Breathnach: I agree there is no conspiracy but Glynn is blatantly lying about children dying from covid
@Seamus Kelly: Please explain
@Michael Waldron: Children have died due to Covid-19, not many but it is a fact. So he is not lying
This is the first I’ve heard a risk of alot of young people dying, thought it was the old at risk? Do we know something the rest of the world does not? Surely they are not using fear as an instrument so people comply with measures? That would be highly immoral
@The Upside-down Triangle: young people in Ireland have died. Famous case was that doctor. If we allow it to run rampant of course more young people will die. Those with severe asthma and other lung issues. He didn’t say thousands he said many more. We have an obesity problem. They would also be at risk. Lots of young people have undiagnosed conditions too.
@David Clements: with all due respects to that doctor who died, he was technically middle aged, not young!
@David Clements: I haven’t seen any data that supports this viewpoint. Look at Spain or France, cases have skyrocketed but deaths remain low. And this is including every age group, if you were to discount the old it would be even less. Yes I agree “some” young people are at risk of dying, I don’t deny that. But to say “an awful lot” of young people will die fear mongering.
@David Clements: Which doctor?
@The Upside-down Triangle: it’s not a case of using fear as an instrument for compliance, a lot of people have convinced themselves based on nothing but their own wishful assumptions, that anyone under the age of 50 is invulnerable to the serious symptoms and outcomes of covid19 simply because that’s what they want to believe.
It is based on the assumption that its only older people that have underlying conditions, which means when there are simultaniously infected with covid 19, it can prove extremely damaging or even fatal.
The totally illogical false belief is that underlying conditions are cancer, diabetes etc. But it could just as easily be the flu, which even in a younger healthy person means a simultaneous infection with covid 19 could prove extremely damaging or even fatal…
@The Upside-down Triangle: I think the government should pull that comment from all media sources.
They could single handedly lose the people with that kind of rhetoric.
The data is crystal clear.
Everything said to the contrary is false.
@The Upside-down Triangle: Children and young people have died from Covid-19.
There’s daily reports that shows the age groups of those hospitalised and needing ICU.
The majority of people who were hospitalised who died weren’t admitted to ICU
There are over 1M people with underlying conditions in Ireland too.
Remember too that people are experiencing long-term complications after Covid-19 infection even among young people who were previously healthy.
@Joan Featherstone: he was a bit young in the context of death now in fairness. Not many 54 year olds die from contagious diseases in Ireland. Which is what we’re talking about
@The Upside-down Triangle: they’re not doing herd immunity in France or Spain tho. That’s what we’re discussing in this article.
@David Clements: 54 years of age is not young. That’s what we are discussing in this article.
@The Upside-down Triangle: not*
@Nuala Mc Namara: how many children and young people have died? Half of deaths happended in Nursing Homes not Hospitals. Median ages of deaths is 82. 92% of all deaths are in the over 65 age group.
@The Upside-down Triangle: The Health Protection Surveillance Centre publishes daily epidemiology reports,&
: Table 5 shows the number of deaths in all Covid-19 cases by sex and age group notified in Ireland up to 21/9/20.
: Table 5 shows the number and proportion of confirmed cases of Covid-19 notified in Ireland by age-group, hospitalisation and ICU admission 21/9/20
@Nuala Mc Namara: and still you still haven’t answered the question so I will for you. 1 person aged between 15-24 has died of Covid 19, and non under 15.
From the article – ‘Sweden never had herd immunity as a goal or strategy, but the strategy of protecting the old and vulnerable while allowing some spread in the population has had the by-product of herd immunity.’
They had close to 6000 deaths because they failed to protect their care homes at the start (as did a lot of countries). Approx 2 million are over 65 in Sweden.
Dr Johann Giesecke spoke to the Covid Committee today and said Ireland should allow a controlled spread once the vulnerable are protected.
So if Sweden didn’t have herd immunity as a strategy (it’s only a by-product of their strategy) can we adopt their strategy instead? Dr Johann was recently promoted by the WHO to a senior advisory position and now advises the WHO Director-General on the response to pandemics
@Anna Anna: Sweden were told back in March if they didn’t lock down like all the other countries they would have 85000 deaths, using Neil Ferguson’s predictive models
@Anna Anna: totally true and I heard what that Swedish professor said about Ferguson back in March, Johan dieste said that Boris Johnson was going to do the same as sweden but after seeing the report from Ferguson he went 360 and panicked and put the .uk in lockdown, Johan said the Swedes looked at the data about 85000 deaths in Sweden with no lockdown and knew it was a completely false quotation, that’s why sweden never went into lockdown .
@Anna Anna: Brazil didn’t lock down, 138,000 dead. Is that what you want
@Macca Attack: last I checked we didn’t have favelas
@Anna Anna: but why didn’t they get immunity like your suggesting Sweden did.
@Macca Attack: the quote I mentioned is in the Journal article. I’m not suggesting it. The Swedish epidemiologist is, the same one who has recently been promoted by the WHO to advise the Director-General on pandemic response
@Macca Attack: what your suggesting is false and shocking misleading. Brazil has a population of 210 million people. Using the predictions of Ireland 65000 deaths you should have 2.7 million dead Brazilians. But you don’t. They had no lockdown. If fact less than a million globally have died out of 7.8 billion people. Compare that to the Spanish flu. It killed 50 million out of 1.8 billion people.
@great gael of Eire: yes it did kill that your right, but over 3 years,. And the 2nd wave did the damage. In fact the Spanish flu lasted till 1947 although became less lethal as time went on and morphed into seasonal flu before dying off. But I don’t get your point ré Brazil. Immunity isn’t proven yet so stop with the BS
@Macca Attack: 138k dead on 210m is 0.1% of the population (which is what the models predict, and what the flu would kill if most vulnerable people didn’t get vaccinated) . In Ireland we would have 4k. About twice what we have now, but hardly the Megadeath that some people were predicting.
The big question now is whether Brazil now has so many infections that it’s virtually immune from new outbreaks, or is it’s just the start.
@Giovanni Giusti: Back to school with you. The whole 210m population in Brazil are not currently infected. Their mortality rate at 3% [4.5m infected with 138k dead] which is very low considering UK are at 10% and Ireland at 5.4%. If 210m get infected that could add up to 6.3m dead. 5m infected in usa on 5aug resulted in 162k deaths. Would you like the same for Ireland?
If that were the case wouldn’t young people be dropping like flies all over the world since we’ve reopened over the past number of months? Sure half of the Swedish population would be wrote off given this logic seeing as they took a herd immunity approach. It is actually disturbing at this point the fearmongering coming from the government and media.
@Lauren McKeown: Sweden this, Sweden that, just move there if you think their strategy is so great. Quarantine on arrival.
@Paul Cunningham: we should not basing our decisions based on opinions and feelings. We should be using data and facts and weighing up our options carefully taking a wide range of advice from various sources.
Or we could do what NPHET says based on nothing.
With all due respect to NPHET and there work to date which has no doubt been what they believe has been the best approach.
There job is to analyse options and put them to government with recommendations.
They do not get to say one option or the other “won’t” be done here.
Not advocating for herd immunity just showing that they may be forgetting their place in the country.
@Richie: Agreed.
But are they due respect? I could be wrong but I’ve not yet seen NPHET or any of our other experts apologise, or even acknowledge, the horrendous mistakes they made in the nursing homes in March – denying them testing, refusing to remove positive residents etc. We have ended up with the second highest nursing homes deaths in the world. Have they ever acknowledged this?
Yet the Swedish experts NPHET regularly disparage have on multiple occasions admitted they made mistake in their nursing homes.
Im not sure NPHET deserve any respect.
@Richie: spot on, Nolan speaking above his station the last 3 weeks
@Richie: With all due respect to the government, if they decided to go down the path of herd immunity they’d want to have the scientific community including NPHET on board or that government would be dead in the water without a leg to stand on when the hospitals started to feel the crunch.
The government absolutely make the final call on everything, but making a call in open defiance of the evidence and the top medics in the country would make that decision political suicide. See the UK’s startling U-turn on herd immunity as a perfect example.
@ihcalaM: my point wasn’t about what the decision is, which I said at end of post.
It was that NPHET should not speak in terms of final decisions it is not their role or function.
There job is to inform and advise not speak in definite terms of policy for the country. It is not their call.
We elected people to make decisions, NPHET are beginning to lose sight of this and forgetting there are other major factors that need to be considered in every decision, they are just one strand in the decision making process (or should be).
@Richie: they know they’re on solid enough ground on this issue tho.
I concur. This herd immunity craic is just for people who want to stick their head in the sand and are too feicing greedy to stop economing for a while
@Quiet Goer: that’s the thing, what’s gonna happen to the economy if there’s a line outside the hospitals….
@Quiet Goer: you a public or civil servent???
So what happens to the likes of Dublin or any other county NPHET decide to destroy in the next 2-3 weeks? They just stay closed down? This virus isn’t going anywhere as they’ve said? Very confusing
@David Lee: what’s confusing?
@Ian Breathnach: Read my comment as to what I’m confused about, I take it you aren’t a victim to job loss due to NPHET recommendations, nor are you at risk of losing your job.
@David Lee: My job is all but gone as a travel agent. I don’t know what you think is confusing. We’re in a pandemic. What do you want NPHET to do?
Is there any end to the fear mongering?!!
@Kieran Hayes: don’t look like it…I’m not buying it at this stage… I’m doing what I’m told re the masks etc, but the fear factor with some is over the top (been working in a hospital all through).
@Joan Featherstone: I hear you… I’m not buying it either
If Nolan is looking to be the next leader of Fianna Fail he is making an excellent job of it. His ability to lie without batting an eyelid is very impressive.
He just needs to learn to use the buzz-term “in terms of” in every second sentence and he will be right there in the mix when Mehole falls on his sword.
Wear a mask everywhere and wash yer hands and get on with yer life. Simplest and most effective method.
What a disgraceful comment to make. Where is there any shred of evidence globally that supports just a statement. It’s fine being cautious and equally protecting the old and young but to come out with such a fear mongering, unproven and statistically false statement from the head of a senior health official is wrong. And should have been asked to support such a comment from any respectacble journalist.
@John Egan: also, the issue isn’t him being against herd immunity. The issue is him issuing a statistically unproven statement to support his method. How is there any trust then.
Sounds like NPHET are trying to sway the government from adapting a new approach in response to MMs comments today. Although he was not advocating herd immunity he was showing signs of someone who realises the lockdown/open up approach is not sustainable
@MarkQ: Kinda felt like the goalposts is starting to shift a bit alright.
I think we may stick with what we are doing I don’t see any other countries with some magical process that’s working better.
We will probably be dealing with this for the next few years
@Alan Kelly: look at the data on Sweden. Cases vs deaths.
@Alan Kelly: a very dangerous way of doing things – we have done x, y and z, let’s keep doing it because if we hadn’t have done it it probably would’ve been worse now.
@Jim Lingk: The data is showing that the route Ireland took is a temporary solution. It prevented a rush to A&E’s but the virus got into the nursing homes so we didn’t actually save the most vulnerable we put then into the firing line.
What we are doing akin to Whack A Mole. We shut down, cases go down, we open up cases go up, so we shut down again. We are solving nothing. We are still back at the beginning. Every time we lock down its like sliding down the ladder to the very start.
A lot of the absolut muppets defending herd immunity coming out of the woodwork here.
You can get reinfected, you can have medium term damage due to the virus, and at this rate of transmission we can’t spread the virus effectively through the population even if you mad people thought it was a good idea.
Herd immunity is best done via a vaccine that hasn’t been developed yet, so wait and wash your hands before doing any more irresponsible actions.
@Paul Cunningham: Most sane and logical comment I’ve read.
@Paul Cunningham: have you data/evidence to back this up? Do you think this virus is as bad as the Spanish Flu?
@great gael of Eire: Spanish flu lasted 3 years and the 2nd wave did most of the damage because people back then, just like you are doing right now, thought it wasn’t that bad at first. Covid19 is less than 1 year old.
@Bren: The Spanish flu killed 50 million out if 1.8 billion. Covid has caused the deaths of less than a million. Most of those were people with underlying conditions. The evidence is showing us that Covid is nowhere as lethal at the Spanish flu. The median age of people in Ireland who have died in 80+.
So if I’m correct. You believe that if we do nothing right now and went about our business as normal The numbers of people dying from covid would go from less than a million to 200 million. Considering that the population of the world since 1918 has gone from 1.8B to 7.8B. Ireland’s deaths will rise from 1800 to 65000. As predicted!!!!
This mean nothing ‘An awful lot of young people might have to die’. There is no proof and no facts to back it up. In fact I wouldn’t trust Mr Nolan to run a creche.
The data from Ireland’s central statistics office says that the median age of people who die from Covid is 80+. There data also suggests the out of the last 360 deaths. They weren’t sure if 16 people had an underlying condition. Everyone else had.
His opinions are false and misleading and he should be called out on it and kicked out of NPHET. Hes not trustworthy.
@great gael of Eire: I’d trust him more than you. Did you not say yesterday when debating this that the Italian and Spanish were lying about their numbers, and we should follow the Swedish and Brazilian examples. Lets see…Swedish are bringing in restrictions, after having 3 times our deaths, for half our population, and half our population density and the Brazilians now reporting more deaths per capita than the US. The only one misleading people is yourself.
@Joe_X: Nope I didn’t say any of that. Try not to misquote me.
Here is a true observation the facts and the predicted models are way off. If the virus followed the models then Brazil would have 2.7 million dead. But they don’t. The countries population is 210 million. The models were so far off that not even a million people globally have died. This is and was being compared to the Spanish flu. In 1910s it killed 50 million people out of 1.8 billion. If Covid was as bad as the Spanish flu we should be looking at 200 million people dead. But we’re not are we. Why?
@Joe_X: You say Sweden has half our population? No, last time i checked 8.5-9mln people in Sweden, Ireland 4.8mln.
@great gael of Eire: Maybe I misinterpreted what you meant, but that is what I took from what you said.
One thing if you are comparing this to Spanish flu. Spanish flu went around the world in about 2.5 years in 4 waves. We have only had 6 months so far. Also it was 100 years ago. Ever wonder what SARS-COV-2 would have done 100 years ago. We know what happened when a strain of Spanish Flu reared it’s head 11 years ago (H1N1). Apart from a few warnings, no one batted an eye. Medicine has come a long way in a hundred years.
@Damian Moylan: my mistake, i meant to say twice our population and half our population density
@great gael of Eire:
I wouldn’t trust that spoofer to empty my bin.
@Joe_X: there is still no evidence to back up Professor Nolan so why does he get away with saying it. The data is showing the opposite. Median age of deaths is 80+. Plus it’s not killing healthy people.
@Joe_X: There was one expert who was being ridiculed. He said the death rate would not be over 1%. It would be more like 0.1%. Turns out he was right.
Do you know what the Mexicans say about the Pacific? They say it has no memory. That’s where I want to live the rest of my life. A warm place with no memory.
Interesting to hear Philip Boucher Hayes interview Johan Giesecke on RTE’s Drive time.When Philip gave him facts about Ireland re class sizes, household sizes,etc compared to Sweden that expert had no knowledge of those facts(this was after the Covid-19 Committee Meeting!)& changed his mind re Ireland following Sweden’s strategy!He said he didn’t know enough about Ireland to tell it what to do!
Pity he didn’t ask him about the Swedish Government instructing the Swedish National Board of Medicine and Medical Evaluation in July to ‘carry out a systematic review of patients who have long -term symptoms of Covid-19 ‘and to’ evaluate the scientific support for care, treatment and rehabilitation of patients with long-term symptoms of Covid-19′!Then in September the Swedish Government instructed the National Board of Health and Welfare to ‘develop a model for the rehabilitation of patients with long-term complications after Covid-19 infection.’
What is most frustrating is his claim a few days ago that we do not have the resources to know where the virus is originating in new cases. We’ve had over 6 months – and nearly unlimited exchequer money and thousands of unused willing volunteers – and we could not ask a few extra questions when contact tracing – or do ongoing surveys of positively diagnosed people or diary studies to plot where people were (work,restaurant,pub,gym, training, school,college,house party etc.) and then map and analyze patterns in transmission. We already ask who they met. It’s not that much of an extra lift to ask where they were versus just relying on anecdotal heresay – the mind boggles.
Evidence points to the contrary mr Nolan and nobody is talking about measles parties here. People are talking about basic safety restrictions that will be abided by but excessive and damaging restrictions causing mass unemployment , like those imposed by NPHET , will not be accepted anymore.
we are grieving for our pre covid world. The 5 stages of grief and loss are: 1. Denial and isolation; 2. Anger; 3. Bargaining; 4. Depression; 5. Acceptance. People who are grieving do not necessarily go through the stages in the same order or experience all of them. https://psychcentral.com/lib/the-5-stages-of-loss-and-grief/
@Eileen O’Sullivan: 6. Horniness
Hard to believe that we, the taxpayer, are actually paying this lad for this guff. At this stage anyone not smelling a huge dirty rat being wafted under their noses probably does have #Covid19. What a farce.
Numbers of Covid deaths have increased in the last week by 120% in Spain and by 80% in France. Some parts of France now have around 30% of their ICU capacity taken by Covid and they just announced a few hours ago the closure of pubs, restaurants, etc in these regions. So yes numbers of deaths and hospitalisations are increasing rapidly and worryingly across Europe and no this is not just an Irish conspiracy and NPHET scaremongering.
@ForrestG45: deaths in Spain have not increased by 120% . Their morbidity is quite low.
@Isabel Oliveira: 900 deaths in the last 7 days versus 410 deaths the week before
What he is really saying get ready and roll up your sleeve’s for Mr gates
@Syl Farrell: herd immunity does not protect infants. Passive immunity does. That’s the transfer of antibodies from mother to baby.
It really amazes me how many are willing to sacrifice even 1 person as long as they get what they want. Sweden were obviously willing to do it. Have people forgotten Spain and Italy? When they chose to chase herd immunity, they did not know how many dead they would have. Brazil according to reports today have a worse death toll per capita than the USA, and I bet not every CoViD-19 death is not being reported in Brazil
@Joe_X: would you rather 10 deaths from suicide to save one person from covid?? That’s what’s happening. I’m not even talking about cancer. Which every day more and more people going undiagnosed.
@great gael of Eire: BS! As you’ve demanded above, have you data/evidence to back up your claim? Actually don’t bother. I’ll answer for you. No. As proven by the fact check on suicides the other day on the journal.
@Bren: The last time we had a spike in suicides was 2008 – 2011. It was associated with the last recession. We are already heading into another recession. Our young people do not have any social outlets. we’ve shut them all down. Actually the pubs opened Monday so we have 1. The restrictions are causing a massive spike in mental health problems. When you see a post on the journal asking if you’ve seen this young person? What’s your reaction? We all hear the news but it never gets reported in the papers are rightly so.
Recession leads to an increase in poverty. In increase in poverty leads to a spike in suicides. They govt’s plan is great but they are going to break the country. Ireland has a massive services sector. That’s currently being destroyed. There is going to be a lot of people who have no job and have loans to pay. I really hope the banks go easy on them.
@great gael of Eire: and as I said to you yesterday, Every place is open. You made a claim yesterday suicides up 200% but nothing proving it. Hospital referals down 50%. Based on subjective testimonies in basically an opinion poll.
@Joe_X: “Based on subjective testimonies in basically an opinion poll.” It actually based on GP’s and Drs testimony to the covid committee. I would say that’s a pretty good source.
Time will tell on the Suicides but this year there will be a spike. We hear of them in our communities and all over the country, way more than normal. When the banks are finally leashed on people. These will rise further as the deadline for the pause on loan repayments is fast coming up and unlike Europe the govt is not extending it. The wolves(banks) will soon be unleashed on the poor people of Ireland who’s wages and business have gone bust due to the govts poor handling of the whole situation. It will be lambs to the slaughter.
@great gael of Eire: and that is what is subjective…I was in hospital on Monday at an outpatient appointment and a nurse was telling me they were getting through as many but they are now spread out, working by appointment so the waiting rooms are not full like prepandemic times. The waiting rooms do not look full as there is no more booking in at 9am and being there all day. BTW, do you think the specialists talk to see every patient through their department? As for my GP, I see him whenever I need to. They have gotten a lot more efficient in my opinion. Ring up, make the appointment like I always have. Only now since they have to maintain social distance I’m not waiting an hour in the waiting room. I turn up, get seen, go home. Like it should be.
@great gael of Eire: Have you stats to prove that?
Everything depends on getting a vaccine. A vaccine that leads to herd immunity. Ireland adopting any strategy depends on if a vaccine is even found.
Professor Philip Nolan last weeks statement still underlines why a strategy is a long way away.
“We would like to go back and find out where people are getting the virus, but we don’t have the time or resources to pursue this academic exercise,” Prof Nolan tweeted.
Someone in leadership should be saying WILL instead of WOULD. Its a defeatist attitude that is un irish. We should also be stockpiling plasma in case it gets really bad this winter. But is suppose we are to busy for that also.
Anyone know. How many mask wearing people compared to non mask people are getting this virus
@Michael Maher: cases have shot up since masks became compulsory, before masks social distancing was the norm now its a free for all, was actually almost pushed over while waiting to use the sanitizer in a shop a ‘lady’ in her 60/70s decided we were in her way so basically pushed by myself and daughter and the couple at sanitizer to get into shop before us, no social distancing no sanitizinf of her hand, then when we went in she was going around handling goods and pushing way past everyone, a lot of shops don’t even bother refilling sanitizer anymore, maybe if rules regarding social distancing and shops providing sanitizer it would be a start because masks are obviously not the answer
@nelliekel: short memory nellie? Look back to March and see how long it took to get to 300 daily confirmed cases. Then look at how long it took to get to 300 daily new cases this time. Then look at the differences in the subjects that are being tested. Face coverings were also never meant to be the “end all fix’, they are meant to work in conjunction with the other measures. It is not the face coverings are the problem. Our local Dunnes has the right approach. Security on the way in, telling you to put your face covering on right, directs you to the sanitizer station and then he lets you in.
who here watched the full press conference on rte news now?
Come on NOLAN show the facts to back this up, you are killing and effecting the lifes of young people with your lockdowns, we are no longer living anymore, people.are depressed, stressed losing their jobs wake up man
Why are doctors and medical advisors giving definite answers? It’s not their decision to make.
So, if a vaccine isn’t found, we’ll have to live like this forever? Great plan.
Always laugh at the “medical experts” with their Conspiracy theories.
Why should we listen to medical professionals when we have David Icke supporting, tin foil hat wearing “Google specialists…..
People need to cop on and listen to the experts, that means you too Karen…..
@David Grey: The Covid challenge https://i.postimg.cc/gcLc9J3N/covid-challenge.jpg
You will Fail as will Prof. of Proofless Bullcrap Philip Nolan
The headline here is not true and is not backed by any statistical or scientific evidence.
QED.
Scaremongering to back up a strategy that is being correctly challenged.
Send this challenge to Prof of proofless nonsense Philip Nolan.
The Covid challenge https://i.postimg.cc/gcLc9J3N/covid-challenge.jpg
You will Fail..
Prof Nolan is hot. I would do him anytime…
What a sensationalist statement. More young people die from the flu.
You are doing it already by opening schools
BREAKING NEWS!! MUST WATCH!! The CURE for ”COVID” has finally been found!!! Do your duty and inform your readers! https://www.facebook.com/justin.harvey.90281/videos/10104419493092783/
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