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LAST NIGHT, TAOISEACH Leo Varadkar, Micheál Martin and Mary Lou McDonald faced off in an RTE Prime Time debate ahead of this Saturday’s general election.
The housing crisis came up early on, and Varadkar used the opportunity to attack McDonald over her party’s record in government in Northern Ireland.
Prompted by the Sinn Féin leader, the Taoiseach made a number of claims about social services in the region, including its suicide rate and rising pension age.
But the biggest point of contention was his claim that there are 20,000 people homeless in the North, more than there are south of the border. Was he correct?
Leo Varadkar claimed that figures showed there are more people homeless in the North than in the Republic.
He said:
The official stats from Northern Ireland [show] there are 20,000 people homeless in Northern Ireland, more than is the case here in this State.
The situation arose after Mary Lou McDonald said there were solutions to the homelessness crisis, but that the “political will” was needed to address the problems.
Miriam O’Callaghan put it to McDonald that the homelessness figures have dropped recently. She is correct: in December there was a drop of 717 in the number of people in emergency accommodation.
But charities have pointed out that there is frequently a decline in homelessness around Christmas. In recent years, homelessness has been rising consistently and stood at over 10,000 people for much of last year.
At this point in the debate, Varadkar asked McDonald how many people were homeless in Northern Ireland. She retorted that the figures of homelessness here were “nothing to crow about”, before the Taoiseach made the 20,000 claim.
He also made claims regarding suicide rates and the pension age in Northern Ireland and said “Sinn Féin doesn’t want to talk about its record in government”.
As we explained in a previous FactCheck ahead of the last general election in 2016, homelessness in Northern Ireland is measured differently to the way it is in Ireland.
There are also differences in how Northern Ireland calculates its figures compared with England, Wales and Scotland.
In the North, a person “presents” as homeless by contacting their local authority and making a claim of homelessness.
The local authority will generally then make a decision as to whether that claim is valid (“accepted”). If the claim is deemed valid, the individual is eligible for social housing and other supports.
Included within the total number of homeless households and individuals are people in temporary accommodation, rough sleepers, those living in insecure or “unreasonable” accommodation, people under the threat of eviction or in overcrowded accommodation, and those living in women’s shelters.
In contrast, homeless figures in Ireland – released by the Department of Housing – only count those living in emergency accommodation. If this was the only criterion for tallying the number of individuals in emergency accommodation in the North, it would significantly lower the total.
Ireland doesn’t count the so-called “hidden homeless” that are counted in the North among its official statistics. This has been criticised in the past by housing charities.
To count the North’s homelessness figures, there are a two datasets available.
First, we’ll look at statistics from the Department of Communities, the section of the region’s civil service responsible for the issue.
Twice a year, the department produces its Northern Ireland Homelessness bulletins which contain the statistics on those who present as homeless.
Latest figures from the department cover March to October last year, with statistics for the months since then not published until this March.
They show that 8,527 households presented as homeless over the six-month period. Of these, 2,415 of these had their applications rejected, cancelled or prevented by the department, or withdrawn by the applicant.
That leaves a figure of 6,121 households whose applications were accepted or not yet dealt with by October 2019.
When the number of applications which have not yet been dealt with have been removed, there are 5,732 households (which includes single people) whose application was accepted – the ones we definitely know were homeless.
That figure was made up of 2,069 families, 1,385 single men, 1,030 single women, 1,008 pensioner households and 240 couples.
Within these 2,069 families, there were a total of 3,698 dependent children. The number of adults is not separated out, therefore we do not know if they are two-parent or single-parent families.
Adding these figures together, we can say that at least 9,670 people were registered as homeless in the North during March and October last year. (This figure could be higher, depending on how many parents are in each family – for this FactCheck, we have counted at least one).
A report by the UK charity Crisis, published at the start of this year, noted that the number of rough sleepers in the North on any given night is 250, bringing the overall figure to at least 9,920.
Crisis also noted that the way official statistics are counted in the North significantly contributes to the high homeless figures there, compared with the rest of the UK, as people affected by ill health, for example, are forced to reapply for housing via homeless legislation.
However, the second dataset - figures from the Department of Housing in Northern Ireland – suggest a figure closer to Varadkar’s claim.
They show that in 2018/19, 18,202 households were logged by the NI Housing Executive as presenting as homeless – and given that the number of people in a household can be more than one, the number of individuals will be higher than this.
On the list of the top reasons for presenting as homeless are that current accommodation wasn’t reasonable, a family dispute, loss of rented accommodation, a marital or relationship breakdown and neighbourhood harassment.
But of the 18,202 presenting as homeless, 69% of these – 12,512 households – were accepted as full applicants and provided with accommodation. Of these, 2,668 households were discharged, meaning that they were re-housed in the social or private sector, turned down three reasonable offers of accommodation, or re-housed themselves.
So, of the 12,512 households accepted as full applicants after presenting as homeless, 2,668 were discharged meaning that 9,844 households were still classified as homeless at the end of that period.
Again, as households include single people and families the number of actual people homeless will be higher – but that is not possible to quantify given the figures available.
Separately, Crisis’ homelessness monitor published last week – containing figures for 2017/18 – says that there were just over 3,000 people in temporary accommodation, which would be similar to what is referred to as emergency accommodation (B&Bs, hotels, etc) in Ireland. Comparing that with the most recent figures in Ireland, there were 9,731 people in emergency accommodation in December 2019.
Leo Varadkar claimed that there were 20,000 homeless people in the North, much more than there are in the Republic.
There are two elements to this sentence, so we’re going to break the verdict into two parts.
PART 1: 20,000 homeless people in the North
Over 18,000 households presented at homeless in 2018/19 – which means the number of individuals would be higher, and could be around Leo Varadkar’s figure. However, of these, 12,512 households were accepted as being homeless.
We don’t know the full number of people this covers, as the statistics don’t provide this. It refers to households.
This is backed up by a report from the Northern Ireland audit office said that “since 2005-06 around 20,000 households each year have presented as homeless with an average of 50% accepted as statutory homeless“.
Given that Northern Ireland only counts households, rather than individuals, there could be 20,000 homeless people, but there is no information available to back this figure up. The only figures available shows the number of homeless households.
Therefore, our verdict for this is: UNPROVEN
As per our verdict guide, this means: The evidence available is insufficient to support or refute the claim, but it is logically possible.
PART 2: The number of homeless people in the North is more than in the Republic
Northern Ireland and Ireland have completely different definitions of homelessness and how they count how many people are homeless.
At last count, there were just under 10,000 people homeless in Ireland – that is, living in emergency accommodation. According to the latest report from charity Crisis, just over 3,000 people in Northern Ireland were in similar temporary accommodation. This tallies with other official statistics that have had the number between 2,500 and 3,000 in recent bulletins.
The two jurisdictions use completely different methods of counting the number of people who are homeless. Northern Ireland counts a wide range of people as being homeless, including people living in insecure or unreasonable accommodation and people in women’s shelters, but in the Republic, the definition only includes people living in emergency accommodation.
Further, Northern Ireland’s official figures counts households, rather than individuals, so there isn’t an exact number of homeless individuals as there is here.
It’s also important to remember the context of what the Taoiseach was saying. “Sinn Féin doesn’t want to talk about its record in government,” he said, pointing to the number of homeless people in Northern Ireland, as well as other factors such as the pension age and suicide rates.
It is not unreasonable to infer that he was trying to make the claim that homelessness rates are worse in Northern Ireland – under Sinn Féin’s watch – than they are under his government in Ireland. However, given how statistics on homelessness are compiled in completely different ways in both jurisdictions, they are not directly comparable.
If we were to count homelessness in Northern Ireland the way we count it in Ireland – solely looking the numbers in emergency accommodation – the numbers in Ireland are far higher (Northern Ireland had just over 3,000 people in temporary accommodation; Ireland has 9,731).
It is impossible to compare homeless figures in Ireland to those in Northern Ireland as authorities in Ireland do not count the numbers of people living in insecure or unreasonable accommodation, under the threat of eviction or in overcrowded accommodation, and those living in women’s shelters, whereas those in Northern Ireland do.
Therefore, our verdict for this is UNPROVEN
As per our verdict guide, this means: The evidence available is insufficient to support or refute the claim, but it is logically possible.
TheJournal.ie’s FactCheck is a signatory to the International Fact-Checking Network’s Code of Principles. You can read it here. For information on how FactCheck works, what the verdicts mean, and how you can take part, check out our Reader’s Guide here. You can read about the team of editors and reporters who work on the factchecks here.
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So in other words false and misleading.
@Ciaran O ‘Reilly:
Didn’t expect anything less from Mr Varadkar.
Deflect, blame, accuse.
@Ciaran O ‘Reilly: no read that again. The official housing authority in the North’s numbers show over 9k households are classed as homeless. Average this at 2 people per household (a conservative average) you get to 20k people very quickly. Think you’ll find his number is on the low side!
Here’s an article from the BT on the issue https://www.google.ie/amp/s/amp.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/20000-northern-ireland-households-are-now-homeless-37719853.html
@Ciaran O ‘Reilly: Not at all, unproven. Now let’s talk about murder and criminal justice…. farcical situation having someone running to be the next Taoiseach who won’t condemn punishment beatings and murder and who refuses to accept the criminal justice system including special criminal court because it locked up all her mates.
Pathetic and a sham.
@Ciaran O ‘Reilly: if Leo is so concerned about the North then when can we expect a harsh public statement about Britain’s recent reneging yet again in a brokered deal.
FFG had Simon Coveny at the table negotiating a return to the Assembly, but as soon as they had their photo ops etc Boris and co rowed by on the Financial elements of that agreement leaving the British allocated budget unable to deliver on them promises given and which FG endorsed.
@Sean Fahey: Bla Bla Bla Bla Bla
@Ciaran O ‘Reilly: There’s 18,620 officially declared homeless in Northern Ireland according to Newstalk Breakfast this morning
@Conan Campbell: That’s all I heard anytime Mary Lou opened her mouth last night.
@Sean Fahey: It was terrible. Hard to watch when she was being questioned on the SCC. The two boyos didn’t have to get anymore digs in, she just confirmed what we already know. She’s not the leader of SF, she’s a puppet. They could of pressed her on so many other controversial topics, but she was KO’ed after SCC and Paul Quinns murder questions. Forever in opposition.
Another erroneous claim by Leo on National TV. Should we expect a formal apology on the 6 o clock news?
@Toon Army: we should expect it, but we wont get it
@Toon Army: every time Leo opens his mouth a lie escapes, what a disgraceful individual, time to give him the boot.
@Toon Army: How is it erroneous? Did you even read the article?
@Toon Army: he probably said the truth but you didn’t read the article it seems. Official figures are closed to the 20k
Maybe Leo should use the same way as categorising homelessness, and then see if he has something to crow about!
@talksense: we are talking about the Republic of Ireland here, the north is a totally different situation…..
@talksense:. Millions of ways. Come up and see for yourself
The headline should read Taoiseach told lies about NI homeless numbers. Most people won’t read the article.
@Ed: But he didn’t tell lies? Did you read the article or just read the headline and then comment?
@Sal Paradise: He did, the criteria used for defining homelessness in the North is much wider than what they use here. If we used the same criteria they would be figures that you could compare directly against each other, but they are not so you can not.
@Diarmuid Hunt: Careful now, that’s common sense you’re speaking, not something FFG or their supporters are familiar with
@Diarmuid Hunt: you are correct we only use 3 of the 15 criteria to define homelessness here compered to the north which use 13 so if we used the same criteria the official figure off 10,000 here is way off the mark but don’t expect FF or FG tell you that
So the comparable figure is 3000 in the north not 20000?
Depends, you includin Fenians or just good Ulster Prods?
Oh, it’s not 1969 anymore.
Did Leo spontaneously forget is he what country he is campaigning in??!! Desperate is an understatement in reference to Leo and Michael during the debate last night…saying that Mary Lou was by no means perfect but she didn’t try to sugar coat it as per FG/FF!
@Simon Connolly: and when it suited him this morning he discounted niorthern Ireland as being in a different jurisdiction so it wasn’t relevant…This man bends facts to suit himself..He’s like a little posh school boy who wants all the sweets for himself..His removal from power will be very sweet indeed.
@Simon Connolly: in fairness, SF are crowing about the opportunity to govern. So looking at how they actually govern in a nearby jurisdiction is relevant.
@lambda sensor: trying to govern under an oppressive british regime and considering how far they have come against what was basically empire funded terrorism Id say they deserve their chance.
@lambda sensor: At least when a financial scandal occurred Sinn Fein and other had the courage to deal with it. Here when F.F. facilitated in the gangsterism of banks and developers and economically destroyed this country, Leo and his blueshirts had no problem with the same F.F. keeping them in power.
In any case the purse strings in NI are controlled by Boris Johnson and his gang of privileged millionaire austerity hawks.
Different jurisdictions same island he doesn’t care about north , anything to take heat off doing Murphy and co landlords !
@Andrew O Grady: 100% wrong. If he didn’t care about Northern Ireland why did he fight so hard for a borderless Ireland during Brexit?
@Joe: and during troubles southern government turned a blind eye
@Andrew O Grady: typical response. Don’t reply to the comment that shows your previous comment to be inaccurate, but raise another point completely unrelated.
You said LV doesn’t care about the North I responded saying that his stance on Brexit shows otherwise and then you bring up the “South’s” interest in Northern Ireland or lack of during the troubles. Typical SF response!
@Joe: he did it for business reasons for jobs for farming which is great for all , is he interested in a all ireland I doubt it and that’s my opinion !
@Joe: How many candidates did FG run in the recent Stormont and Westminster elections? They have an abstentionist policy for the north.
@Andrew O Grady: Why didn’t Mary Lou have any figures to contradict him? Her answer was “you tell me” The mind sees what it wants to see.
Lieo at it again.
What are [pardon the pun] SF-IRA up in arms about?
I don’t think their record in NI is too relevant anyway. They spend most of their time sitting out of Stomont and [all the time] out of Westminster.
Hurler-on-the-ditch politicians at best.
@JusticeForJoe: time to kick the Blueshirt Facist Party into touch
@dublindamo: yes, more so than the blueshirts from fascism
@Ordinary lad: Not a single number on your ballot paper for FG/RIC.
Varadkar is a liar.
Perhaps he should have pushed for a United Ireland so he could work on this figure rather than using them as a political points scoring opportunity.
He’s running scared, probably with just cause.
Leo on grass again
So as iv pointed out before this is not apples for apples. You can or compare a power sharing executive with the system of government in ireland. Leo trying such is just grasping at straws.
More lies from Leo.
I think it’s really indicative of the Taoiseach’s character that he would use the issue of ‘homelessness’ as a political weapon. The North of Ireland is governed by the UK, and their homeless remit and how they count homelessness is different to the Republic’s method. Therefore you can’t compare it, and anyhow, even if there were more homeless people in the north, it doesn’t justify Fine Gael’s dismal record on homelessness down South. Just because there might be worse homeless situations in other states, and countries, with bigger homelessness problems, doesn’t mean ours is ok. Leo has made several comments on homelessness during his tenure (or perhaps they were more aptly- gaffes). He seems to think that Homelessness is normal, and that our levels are acceptable because of this. Due to his view that homelessness is ‘normal’, it seems he doesn’t see a problem with it. He seems to be of the view, that it’s al fact of life. To a point, he is correct, it is a feature of society, and has become a fact of life in most societies, however this doesn’t mean it’s normal, or should be accepted as normal, or indeed- ‘normlaized’. It is in Fine Gael’s normalization of homelessness that they really fail the most vulnerable. One person homeless should be unacceptable to any compassionate person. Nobody should have to sleep on a street, particularly in our harsh climate. !0,000 homeless in a wealthy country like ours, is abhorrent, and with 4000 children it is even worse, but Leo doesn’t seem to be disgusted by this, he seems to be indifferent. This is the real scandal. We have a leader who isn’t bothered by the immense human suffering of many thousands of his fellow citizens (many of them kids). Many of these homeless citizens are mere casualties of bad FG/FF housing policies too, another reason why Leo and FG/FF should be ashamed. But they are not ashamed, this is another scandal. Why are they not ashamed?
What’s with him putting up his hand last night like a child desperately looking to answer teachers question in the class room.leo is so out of touch.half them fellas wouldn’t know how to put in a hard day’s work.its all spoofing and looking good on camera for him
@nicknack: and yet he was way better in the debate than Mary Lou. Not a good omen.
@Connoroconner: No he wasn’t. You obviously watched a different debate
Leo’s Government doesn’t even know the true extent of homelessness HERE because Ireland’s ‘official’figures excludes 10 Catergories of ETHOS typology re homelessness!
Why are the comments closed on the Mary Lou/ Paul Quinn article? ‘Shroud waving’ of the highest order, bad ‘journalism’ and electioneering using the horrible murder of a young man, wheeling in his mother to score political points. FG/FF/RTÉ are rattled.
tl:dr
Leo says NI has 20k homeless and ROI has 10k.
NI has 3000 in emergency accomodation, and 17k classified as homeless under different criteria.
Ireland has 10k in emergency accomodation and doesn’t count other homeless criteria.
If RoI counted homeless using the same criteria as NI it’s likely that RoI total ‘homeless’ numbers would be c. 70,000 , but that can’t be proven.
@Anthony Conlo go back north, we can look after our own down here without the Queen up FG & FF :)
Fact checking! from the Journal? An online rag that makes the Morning Star look like an Alt Right publication!
@MunsterPI: so why are you lowering yourself to read it and comment?
Your article reads like a politician wrote it. WHY cant you just say leo was wrong again with his numbers.
Has the question ever been put the F.F /F.G/Lab by the media/tv why the recommendations of the Kenny report (of the seventies) have never been implemented.
Is it not true to say that if the hap is taken by a tenant then that tenant is removed from the housing waiting list/homeless list, if this is so is n’t this also misleading the real figures
Ha British governments problem not Mary Lous
considering sinn Fein and the dup.have been happy to give up any responsibility for governing northern Ireland for 3 years . how does anyone think they would be any use down here. dont get me wrong I dont think ff or fg are good but let’s call sf for what they are.
@ed w: can we ship all of SF up north
@ed w: What you fail to recognise is that assembly was brought down in a point of principle, specifically financial corruption by the DUP in the cash for ash scandal. Would any southern party do that. SF ended up achieving more in the 3 years outside of Stormont than the previous 20 years in it for the people of the north – same sex marriage, abortion rights, Irish language recognition and the revision of the petition of concern that crippled the assembly. They also retained the same number of seats in Westminster and form the majority of the nationalist block in Westminster which is now greater than the unionist block for the first time ever. I’d say they’re politically savvy and quite good at what they do. But I think you knew that already.
@ed w: They would bankrupt the country for sure but they will never be in government which suits them just fine. Highlight the problems without ever offering any viable solutions. Why else would she run so few candidates? She claims to have the heartbeat of the country, well obviously not because she put no faith in the people of Ireland to vote her to power. Ireland, alarmingly, is getting a little like Brexit voting Britain with many chasing the fairytale.
Still a lot though. Just calculated differently to Republic of Ireland.
Mary Lou has no clue herself in the figures. Something she ought to know.
Caught out big time not having a clue Mary Lou.
@Nicola Ní Chathail: Sinn Fein are a republican Irish Party relying on a British Tory party for their funding.
Do you people realise this at all??
@JusticeForJoe: Yes, obviously… what’s your point? Does this mean she should not have a notion of rough numbers? There’s power-sharing in the North- Are you aware of this at all?
There are 9 million bicycles in Beijing that’s a fact that’s a thing
So the republic reckons you are homeless if you are lodged at taxpayer expense in a hotel or similar hostels.
Tent dwellers & adult kids at home with parents, with no prospect of independent family creation, do not rate.
Out with these associates of the landlord & property system that monopolises home provision.
Back with local authority home provision, on reasonable, sustainable rents.
Ithas been done well in harder times, just needs the same leadership to do it again.
Bottom line..there will be no more money for whoever gets in..pay the bills and use what’s left on necessities..but they are free to waste it on what they decide.who has said the pot needs more money so expenses and wages must be cut ..in the government..any one working 2 jobs and has paid rent for 7 years with proof.should get a 95./. Mortgage.it will mean most young couples pay less per month.all disused building bought by councils in all towns for apartments.with government money ..and increase nurses wages to 4€ per hour more than teachers..and nurses will come back.and let more beds be available to fix the backlog of appointments and ops.thats the kind of sense we need to hear.not dreams.
It’s continuing the attempt by FG to normalise homelessness……?
None of these figures make sense.
When the housing minister declared that anyone in emergency housing will go to the top of the housing ladder , guess what, the numbers presenting as home less shot up.
Since when does “they’re worse places” constitute a reason to be inept and flippant about those less fortunate in OUR society? We are moraĺly judged by Elderly, youth and those disadvantaged.
What Leo said was based on the Northern Ireland figure given by the government, the fact that Mary Lou had no idea what the figures were and seemed to be out of her depth at times was alarming. The problem with Leo is we know he doesn’t really care about homeless or high rents. First thing he said when he got into office
” homeless crisis wouldn’t be solved in the lifetime of this government ” in other world No political ambition to given try to get it sorted, now that it is such a massive problem he can no longer do very little.. or at least to little to late judging by the polls
have your say