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GOVERNMENT TARGETS FOR housing completions over the next two years will be missed by around 9,000, according to the Banking & Payments Federation Ireland.
The BPFI is the main representative body for the banking and financial services sector.
It has released its Housing Market Monitor for Q4 of 2024 in the same week as the Central Bank issued its first bulletin of 2025, which forecasts that the State’s housing target will be missed by 6,000.
The two reports released this week forecasting more missed housing targets comes amid claims that the government “misled the public” in the run-up to last year’s general election.
The government had set a goal to complete 40,000 homes last year and insisted that this target would be exceeded, but actually fell short by nearly 10,000.
Documents released to Sinn Féin TD Pearse Doherty, under the Freedom of Information Act, showed that a report was sent to then Finance Minister Jack Chambers on 6 November 2024, projecting that the 40,000 target would almost certainly be missed.
The report read: “There were 21,634 new homes completed in the first 9 months of the year, 3.1 per cent lower than the same period in 2023.”
A spokesperson for Chambers said the information released to Doherty “was not new” and that the report was based on projections and publications that were in the public domain.
Taoiseach Micheál Martin last month acknowledged that the housing completion figures last year were “extremely disappointing” but denied that it was a “premeditated attempt to mislead”.
“There was a genuine belief that figures would come in strong in the last quarter,” said Martin. “That did not materialise.”
The government has issued revised housing completion targets of 41,000 this year in its programme for government, up from the 34,600 figure contained in the Housing for All plan.
There are also revised targets for 2026, with a target of 43,000, up from the 36,110 figure in the Housing for All plan.
However, while the Government’s housing completion target for both this year and the next is 84,000, the BPFI forecasts that this figure will actually be around 75,000.
This 75,000 figure from the BPFI is below the Central Bank’s estimate of 78,000.
The BPFI meanwhile noted that based on new population projections, as well as estimated pent-up demand, there is a need to build at least 50,000 homes per year over the next five years.
Speaking to The Journal this week, Tánaiste Simon Harris said housing “predictions and projections are not an exact science”.
Some 30,330 new dwellings were completed last year, with 8,732 coming in the last quarter.
This is a 14.5% decrease on the same quarter in 2023, and a 6.7% decrease across the year.
Dublin accounted for around 37% of completions in Q4 2024, and 72% of apartment completions.
And while housing commencements were up 91.7% in Q4 of last year to 17,017 when compared to 2023, there is a lack of certainty over when these houses will be completed.
The BPFI estimated that at least half of the total number of homes commenced during 2024 were due to the uncertainty about the extension of the development levy waiver in April (which was later extended until December) and water connection charge refund arrangement expiring in September.
It added that the completion date for the units commenced last year, as well as some of the commencements from the end of 2023, will span the two-year period of 2025 and 2026 and result in a total housing output of around 75,000 units in the next two years.
And while the BPFI said it anticipates a “significant increase in output, particularly in the first half of this year”, it also warned that in order to reach the output levels required to meet demand, “key labour, land and capital issues will need to be addressed”.
The BPFI said that unless productivity increases significantly in the residential construction sector, it will not be possible to increase output to the required levels with current employment levels.
While there was a significant increase in employment in the wider sector from around 145,000 at the end of 2019 to over 172,000 in the second half of 2022, these gains stagnated and total employment in the sector was at around 176,000 at the end of 2024.
There was also a decrease in the number of residential units granted planning permission last year, dropping 21% from over 41,000 units in 2023 to 32,000 last year.
This decline was mainly driven by planning permission granted for apartments, which fell by almost 39% last year when compared with 2023, while house approvals were down by 2.7%.
Dublin accounted for almost half (46%) of all apartments granted planning permission in 2024.
However, the total number of apartment planning permissions granted across the four Dublin local authorities declined by nearly 56% in 2024.
And according to data from the Dublin Housing Supply Task Force up to September 2024, around 22,500 units with planning permissions granted but not commenced are set to see their permission expire between 2025 and the end of 2027.
Around 21,000 over these units with permissions set to expire by the end of 2027 are apartments.
The BPFI also warned there are “increasingly signs of delays in securing utility connections, such as water and electricity, for new projects”.
For example, under current capacity, Uisce Éireann (Irish Water) can connect a maximum of 35,000 homes to the network, with further investment required to increase capacity.
Speaking to The Journal this week, Simon Harris said that while he said he did not want to apportion blame to Uisce Éireann, he acknowledged there’s some areas where people can’t get planning permission to build a house due to the lack of water connections.
Meanwhile, the BPFI cautioned that the availability of capital investment is a “significant factor affecting housing output”.
The State’s investment in housing is at historically high levels, increasing from an estimated €1 billion to €6.5 billion over the past decade, and the BPFI said that Ireland’s spending on housing as a percentage of national income is the highest in the EU.
However, the BPFI said that this level of investment “may become unsustainable if the current strong public finances were to deteriorate”.
The Department of Finance has estimated that €20 billion would be required to deliver 50,000 homes per year, and the BPFI said nearly €17 billion of this would need to come from private capital sources.
The BPFI noted that this level of funding is not needed each year, as funding is “recycled in the system with housing projects going through different stages of development”.
And while the PBFI said that Irish banks are already providing significant finance to the housing market, it has called for the “lending capacity of the banking sector to be fully utilised”.
“Instead of State funding competing with private sector capital, there is a need to expand the capacity of the sector by way of risk sharing with the State which is not uncommon in other jurisdictions in order to crowd in other private investors,” said the BPFI.
Walk around and interact with people for up to 2 weeks until the symptoms become evident and then ‘self-isolate’.
Makes sense.
@George Vladisavljevic: There is no such thing as self isolate, at that stage there is already contact with others including family members. Are employers going to pay you while you ‘self isolate’ , who will go out to buy provisions/visit the chemist to get medication. It is not as easy as it appears, seems to me the government is trying to hide the problem with no effective means to support those who have /may have the virus.
@George Vladisavljevic: The last thing we need is thousands of worried people, most with mild symptoms or none at all, descend on hospitals. That’s what caused things to turn for the worse in China, people got infected at overcrowded ERs, and they infected 100s of Drs and the patients in hospital. See here:
The average incubation period is 4.6 days (4.1-5.1 days 95% of the time), seen 207 patients. A 14 day incubation or longer is very rare. It is unknown for sure if a person is infectious during incubation, if it is possible it is a rare mode of spread. About 20% of people have no symptoms as all, ever, that makes identification and isolation very challenging. The illness last 2 to 3 weeks on average.
The aim is to reduce the Basic Reproduction Number, R0, the average number of people an infected person goes on to infect. It is currently between 2 and 3. Self isolation at home is the best method, as for most people as for 80-90% symptoms are mild. If the R0 can be brought below 0, then the epidemic dies out. Staying at home helps reduce R0.
The best idea is to self isolate at home, and if symptoms worsen call and ambulance and explain your symptoms. We need to preserve our hospitals as long as possible, not head to an ER with a mild cough or a sniffle.
@David Jordan: how you know Dr David,?
How unprepared and blase Ireland are about this virus is frightening.
Ireland vs the UK approach in a nutshell:
“Three schools in Northern Ireland have told students returning from school trips to regions in the north of Italy affected by the coronavirus to remain at home as a precaution.”
“A group from Mount Anville all-girls post-primary school in Goatstown, Dublin also recently returned from northern Italy.
In a letter to parents, the school said it is not advising self-isolation at this stage and it said measures have been put in place to avoid the spread of any virus or illness.”
Shaking my head
If they are displaying symptoms ? This after it’s clear that people can be contagious and showing no symptoms for 14 days ? Why not test them ?
@Isabel Oliveira: There’s already a global shortage of testing kits and they’re being funnelled to the most affected areas… We’d blitz through what we have in no time testing the thousands arriving here daily who could have passed someone who could been near an infected area….
@Isabel Oliveira: The average incubation period is 4.6 days (4.1-5.1 days 95% of the time), seen 207 patients. A 14 day incubation or longer is very very rare. It is not known for sure if a person is infectious during incubation, if it is possible it is a rare mode of spread. The best idea is to self isolate at home if you have mild symptoms, and if symptoms worsen call an ambulance and explain your symptoms. We need to preserve our hospitals as long as possible, not head to an ER with a mild cough or a sniffle, infect Drs, Nurses, other patients.
It is not possible for the government to build isolation hospitals for 700,000 people (30% infected over 2 months), that is what we may be facing. Lacking that, isolation at home is the best plan. We need to spare our hospitals the burden of tending to people with mild symptoms, or even panicked people who are well. They need to prioritise treating the minority who end up severely or critically ill.
The way this is being handled, it gives the impression they want it to spread.
That’s unfortunately not going to be of much use. People are contagious before they are displaying symptoms. I think the government knows the spread is inevitable at this stage and so won’t do much that could damage three economy.
@John Murphy: The average incubation period is 4.6 days (4.1-5.1 days 95% of the time), seen 207 patients. A 14 day incubation or longer is very very rare. It is not known for sure if a person is infectious during incubation, if it is possible it is a rare mode of spread. Some cases, about 10% to 20% never have any symptoms, and it is possible they might be contagious, again this is not known for sure.
But it is far more likely the vast majority of infections are caused by people who are obvious ill, coughing and sneezing, passing on the virus more efficiently.
The advice is correct and it has been shown to work in this outbreak. It is not possible to isolate potentially ~500,000 people in dedicated isolation wards, so isolation at home is the next best thing. It also spares hospital the burden of tending to people with mild symptoms or even those who are just panicked well, this caused a disaster in China when 1000s of people descended on hospitals in Jan 23rd, infecting medical workers and other patients.
Hospitals need to prioritise and treat those who are severely or critically ill, the 2.5 to 5% of cases. Everyone else, please stay away from hospitals.
This is absolutely nuts. Responsible people might do the right thing but lets face it there are plenty of ah sure i feel grand. Close down all unnecessary to all ports.
Apparently there are no precautions being taken at ports or point of entry into this Country. We need Foot and Mouth like C.Points in place along the Border. This can arrive here from England into N Ireland and down here without checks. The Dept of Health need to get the finger out and act responsibly. Don’t be cutting corners and trying not to cost money. This will be serious.
You can’t trust people to self isolate.
This is ridiculous. The incubation period is 14 days. The virus has already spread before you show any symptoms. If you are returning from a hotspot you should self-isolate for 14 days. If you have NO symptoms and test negative you can come out of isolation.
@Aisling: The average incubation period is 4.6 days (4.1-5.1 days 95% of the time), seen 207 patients. A 14 day incubation or longer is very very rare. It is not known for sure if a person is infectious during incubation, if it is possible it is a rare mode of spread. Most spread is caused by sick people coughing and sneezing. The advice is correct, most of people (may be 95%) will never need to go to hospital and must self isolate.
If everyone with a mild sniffle or cough descended on our hospitals, it would spread infections to other patient and medical workers, our hospitals would be crushed. We must prioritise the most severe cases, give hospitals a chance to continue to operate and tend to those who need critical care.
@David Jordan: Can you please stop regurgitating your post. Peoples issue here is not weather you attend hospital or not its the fact that our government are asking people to wait until they show symptoms before self isolation after returning from infected areas. Every other country is asking anyone returning from infected areas to go straight into self isolation where as the irish official line is carry on as normal and if you show symptoms self isolate. It is contagious prior to symptoms and in some case people may not ever show symptoms while blindly interacting with people in work at bars restaurants ect. This is how Italy has know idea who patient 0 is and how in under a week has blown up from 0 too over 200 cases and 10 fatalities
@Opinionated: bingo … well said ..
Surely to God, anybody who has been to an affected area should isolate themselves, symptoms or not?
I am sure people with the virus are contagious before ever they display symptoms!
@Mary Walshe: The media is reporting on one misspoken word or misreporting what was said:
“Anybody coming back from those affected regions, we’d be advising them to self-isolate and to make contact with your GP in the event they have symptoms and be guided then by their advice of their GP.”
From the HSE website.
Self-isolate – when you may need to:
You only need to isolate yourself from other people if in the last 14 days you have:
* been in close contact with a confirmed case of coronavirus
* recently been to one of the affected areas – and have developed symptoms of coronavirus
* recently been in a healthcare centre or hospital where patients with coronavirus were being treated and have developed symptoms of cornonavirus
It says nothing about showing symptoms first.
https://www2.hse.ie/conditions/coronavirus/coronavirus.html#isolate
this may put people’s minds slightly at ease and hopefully reduce the panic that seems to be taking hold.
The percentage shown below does NOT represent in any way the share of deaths by age group. Rather, it represents, for a person in a given age group, the risk of dying if infected with COVID-19.
80+ years old – 14.8%
70-79 years old – 8.0%
60-69 years old – 3.6%
50-59 years old – 1.3%
40-49 years old – 0.4%
30-39 years old – 0.2%
20-29 years old – 0.2%
10-19 years old – 0.2%
0-9 years old – no fatalities
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
@Tricia G: i would also say it depends on health..they are numbers for a very healthy person.any body with health problems will have a lot to do with percentages..
The CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 29 million flu illnesses, 280,000 hospitalizations and 16,000 deaths from flu.
Whilst I absolutely am not suggesting this COVID-19 should be taken very seriously, knee-jerk reactions and panicking helps no one.
@Shirley Hollingsworth: That is detailed in the page I posted. Of course those with underlying health conditions are more at risk.
In the same way catching the flu would put them at severe risk.
@Tricia G: I fully accept those figures but what we do not have is the death to recovery rate as these figures are based upon death to infection rate and many infected people are awaiting an outcome. Still the 3% and above for the over 60s is still high, there are over one million people in that category on the island of Ireland and if 1% were to get the virus and 3% die then that is a fair amount of deaths, but one must wonder how many of those would be killed by the annual flu regardless. I agree that it is not time to panic and also that containment in Ireland is unlikely but we still should watch developments and be aware and hopefully people act responsibly.
@Tricia G: Hopefully there is no panic setting in, yet anyway, OK, there will be plenty of people getting type of, -Hysterical – with any little word of it coming near us. But I’d the Dept of Health show some urgency and at least put in some checks at Dublin Airport . Without a doubt, some people will try to sneak back on Flights from holidays without saying anything.
Being an island gives us some opportunity to keep the virus out but… What about requiring all passengers to complete a landing type card with travel etc. details which we can keep and follow up in the event of there being a need to. Or are there data protection issues?
Also, who is going to self isolate if they have to take time off work cause they have a cough?. Who is going to make up the income shortfall? Who is going to issue medical certs for 14 days? Managers do not live in the real world where they have to work “9 to 5″ (or whatever) or are docked pay or days from a sick leave allowance or where promotion and opportunity can be based upon sick records. If people are to self isolate “just in case”, they also need “protection” from over zealous SW and HR departments and staff.
@Niall Ó Cofaigh: Some jobs have the ability to work from home/remotely but it is certainly not the majority. I agree that management/HR will not be very friendly unless there is a government imposition on self-isolating.
It will be very interesting to see how this transpires and if a quarantine is imposed on certain towns/cities based on where the first cases are discovered. Which, by the way it looks, will probably be from one of the recent TY ski trips.
@Niall Ó Cofaigh: Well, if ya get sick and end up in the Graveyard money and promotion won’t be much good to ya.
I found Dr John Campbell to be very informative, he has a you tube channel for anyone who is interested.
@Kate Flaherty: we’ll spread that far and wide everyone.cause that’s about all we will get..you tube it..even if they had mentioned that in there post.instead of stay at home.would have been more helpful..
@Shirley Hollingsworth: True, lol!, but he does explain things in a very calm matter of fact reassuring manner and he is very thorough with data in my opinion!..
So how do you get from Italy to Ireland? Fly? (High chance of spreading the virus on a plane) Drive yourself? (Stopping for a snack or sharing a Ferry trip with others?) When you get home and feel fine but you are needed back at work? Do you self isolate? ( Oh, the guilt leaving your co workers short staffed) There needs to be intervention and assistance by government health officers to support the possible “carriers” from losing their jobs or feeling the threat and returning to work anyway. If we are not going to control the borders we need to take the responsibility for the spread of the virus! The Chinese aren’t being “nice!” They are taking control in an attempt to contain the situation. We should take their lead!
There ya have it. People like this on huge salaries doing feck all. Self isolation is their advice. No checks at airports yet. Why
No one will self-isolate.. Are ye feckin mad.. They’d love nothing more than spreading it.
The Irish response is looking like it has been written by IBEC & and other “economic” interests.
I think we just had our say on this approach to our society during the election..
I am in Singapore and so far today my temperature has been taken 5 times. They are really focused. However, not being Boris about it, they have total control of their borders. Amazingly India with 1 billion people as very little of the outbreak, while Indonesia with nearly 300 million people have no reported cases. Hmmmm
The amount of uneducated cavemen here is astonishing. Meh it’s just a flu comments.. Over 1,000 people diagnosed in Korea and only 22 have been treated enough to leave hospital, meanwhile people are dropping in the streets from the effects
They tell us, days after they’ve already returned without any screening measures in place. This country is a joke
Good! Health of the nation is paramount over anything else. we need insulted the island of Ireland as much as possible to protect all the citizens and visitors to the island
I wonder if they would advise people from as yet unaffected Islands to come home before it does reach those ares.
A friend of mine recently returned from Japan (not from the cruise ship) and is quarantined in Dublin.
have your say