Support from readers like you keeps The Journal open.
You are visiting us because we have something you value. Independent, unbiased news that tells the truth. Advertising revenue goes some way to support our mission, but this year it has not been enough.
If you've seen value in our reporting, please contribute what you can, so we can continue to produce accurate and meaningful journalism. For everyone who needs it.
Over 6,500 new cases of Covid-19 were confirmed across Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday – compared to more than 11,000 new cases reported over the same period last week and 19,000 cases in the preceding week.
Yet hospitalisations, ICU admissions and mortality remain extremely high.
Chief Medical Officer Dr Tony Holohan - in a letter to Health Minister Stephen Donnelly last week – said mortality will increase, and Ireland’s health system will continue to be under enormous strain.
Due to “a large number” of outbreaks in long-term residential facilities and hospitals, “it is anticipated that a total of at least 500-1,000 deaths may occur in the month of January,” said Holohan.
So far this month, 532 people have died with Covid-19.
It could be a number of days before a person who is infected with Covid-19 – or who tests positive – requires hospital admission or Intensive Care. This explains why infection rates could decline but hospitalisations, ICU admissions and deaths continue to rise.
Dr Holohan, in his letter, said – based on optimistic projections – Ireland could see 800 – 1,600 cases per day by 31 January.
Incidence Rates
It is clear, looking at viral infection rates, Ireland’s Third Wave has peaked.
Ireland’s national incidence rate is 1140.7 cases per 100,000 of the population on a 14-day rolling average, according to data from the Health Protection Surveillance Centre – compared to 1,497.0 on this day last week and 936.4 the week previous.
Looking at 14-day incidence rates in individual counties, Monaghan has the highest incidence of Covid-19 in Ireland at 2,134.0 cases per 100,000 – a 20% reduction in incidence since last Thursday.
Louth is the second-highest county in Ireland with a 14-day incidence rate of 1,680.6. Waterford is third-highest with a 14-day incidence rate of 1,582.1
Looking at Local Electoral Area data, Belmullet in Mayo remains the area with the highest individual incidence of Covid-19 at 5555.6 cases per 100,000.
For a breakdown of Covid-19 incidence rates in LEAs around Ireland, see here.
Counties with the current lowest incidence rates include Leitrim (468.1), Longford (516.2) and Westmeath (588.0).
Transmission
Health officials remain fearful that the decline in case numbers seen since 10 January may begin to slow, however.
Community Transmission levels remain high. This is where the source of infection is unknown.
Professor Philip Nolan, Chair of NPHET’s Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group said last night that Ireland’s Reproductive Number is estimated at between 0.5 and 0.8.
It was estimated at between 1 and 1.3 last week.
So, what does that mean?
There is the basic reproduction number (R0), which is the number of people who will be infected if no other factors are taken into account.
Then there is the effective reproductive number (Re) - the number of people who will be infected if you take into account other factors, such as immunity through previous infection or vaccination or behaviour which has been altered by social distancing measures.
It is estimated that SARS-CoV-2 has an R0 of between 2 and 3. NPHET estimates the Re was now between 2.4 and 3 in Ireland, essentially meaning that the virus spread as if no measures were in place seven to 14 days ago.
“We have to keep it below 1.0 if we are to successfully emerge out of this current wave,” said Professor Nolan.
However, NPHET warned last night that the UK variant – which accounts for 60% of recently detected cases – will make it more difficult to sustain progress and further drive down infection.
Meanwhile, The Department of Public Health Mid-West has said that over 1,600 Covid-19 cases were reported there in the past seven days.
Over the past 14 days, there have been more than 3,100 cases recorded in Limerick, over 1,500 in Clare, and over 600 in North Tipperary.
Dr Mai Mannix, Director of Public Health Mid-West, said: “While we have seen few indications of slowdown in the transmission of the disease, the level of infection remains significantly high across the region.
“The Third Wave continues to leave its devastating impact on our community as we are still some time away from seeing signs of relief.”
Advertisement
Hospital & ICU
There have been 122 hospital admissions in the last 24 hours and 125 discharges.
There are – as of this morning – 1,969 confirmed Covid-19 cases in hospital and 214 people in Intensive Care Units.
There were 1,789 confirmed Covid-19 cases in hospital and 169 people in Intensive Care Units last Friday.
A further 300 people are in hospital wards receiving advanced respiratory support.
Last week, the HSE said hospitals had started moving into their intensive care surge capacity as the number of Covid-19 patients requiring advanced care increased.
The system can surge to 350 patients in ICU, providing the same level of care as traditional intensive care settings.
Health Protection Surveillance Centre data shows a total of 37 outbreaks reported in nursing homes between 9 and 16 January.
According to data released by Mid-West Public Health Department, 18 outbreaks have been reported in nursing homes and long-term care facilities between 3 and 18 January.
Provisional data shows there have been more than 360 cases linked to these outbreaks.
Between January 3 and January 18, there have been 17 reported Covid-19 deaths in the Mid-West associated with nursing homes.
“This high incidence rate…among our most vulnerable population is a result of the severe impact of the pandemic’s Third Wave,” said Dr Mannix.
“We continue to manage and investigate a number of serious outbreaks in nursing homes and long-term care facilities following an unprecedented level of widespread community transmission.”
HPSC data shows that – after nursing homes and private homes – workplaces are third-highest in terms of outbreaks with 41 new outbreaks reported since last week.
Department of Health
Department of Health
Testing & Tracing
Testing had ramped up to almost 25,000 per day in early January. It slightly reduced to an average of 23,000 per day last week and has reduced further to an average of 22,000 tests per day this week.
Although testing is close to its highest level yet, it is still being curtailed by demand. Close contacts of confirmed cases are no longer being tested as the HSE prioritises people with symptoms.
The HSE indicated to TheJournal.ie that it will not recommence automatic testing of asymptomatic close contacts until cases stabilise at 1,500 per day.
On 17 December, approximately 83,000 tests were carried out over the previous seven days, an indication that incidence was rising in the lead-up to Christmas. The positivity rate had risen to 3.2%.
On 7 January, approximately 174,000 tests had been carried out in the previous seven days. The positivity rate was 22.7%.
Approximately 167,000 tests were carried out between then and 14 January. The positivity rate reduced further to 17.9%.
This week, approximately 154,000 tests have been carried out in the past seven days. The positivity rate is currently 11.8%.
Vaccinations
Finally, 121,900 vaccinations have been administered in Ireland.
Of the 121,900 vaccines administered so far, 48,800 have been in long-term residential care settings with 73,100 administered to frontline healthcare workers.
The HSE has said it plans to administer 3,900 second doses of the vaccine by Sunday.
It said yesterday that vaccines have been administered at over 200 long-term residential care facilities. It is planned that a further 6,551 vaccines will be administered in 78 of these settings next week.
A total of 47,000 second doses are due to be administered to frontline healthcare workers and at long-term residential care facilities next week.
Healthcare workers with direct patient contact as well as residents at long-term residential care facilities over the age of 65 have been first to receive the vaccine. At the weekend GPs also received their first jab at vaccination centres.
Both vaccines currently being used in the roll out – the Pfizer vaccine and the Moderna vaccine – are mRNA vaccines that require a two-dose schedule.
The Government expects AstraZeneca’s vaccine to be approved by the EMA on 29 January, paving the way for 100,000 vaccinations per week in Ireland.
Readers like you are keeping these stories free for everyone...
A mix of advertising and supporting contributions helps keep paywalls away from valuable information like this article.
Over 5,000 readers like you have already stepped up and support us with a monthly payment or a once-off donation.
TheJournal.ie's Coronavirus Newsletter
TheJournal.ie's coronavirus newsletter cuts through the misinformation and noise with the clear facts you need to make informed choices. Sign up here
To embed this post, copy the code below on your site
Close
18 Comments
This is YOUR comments community. Stay civil, stay constructive, stay on topic.
Please familiarise yourself with our comments policy
here
before taking part.
I’m no COVID doubter but I’d like to see how many hospital admissions & deaths there are compared to this (flu season) in 2020 & 2019. I’m convinced I got this thing in December 2020 that’s why I’d suggest 2019 also. I’ve checked these stats myself & different news outlets give different figures on different days depending on there agenda.
@Full Circle: it goes to show that when you combine vaccination, mask wearing, hand washing and socially distancing, flu becomes far less of an issue. Hopefully once the vaccine has been rolled out here thoroughly, we will see almost zero covid cases
@Aoife: all you’ve said there is to reduce the spread of covid but it doesn’t and it does suppress the flu. So people have been heeding the advice, but the advice must be wrong with massive transmission of covid. So what is it ? Oh ya, it was the A Xmas we got where families rolled naked drunk over each other and vomited on granny by the fire.
@Stanley Marsh: all the mammies and daddies wanted little Johnny and Mary home for Xmas with no test nó isolation and off they went seeing auntie biddy and uncle matt after first going for a family meal then off to see buddies for few pints, a little house party to celebrate then when it was decided the UK veriant was so contagious and banned flights mammy and day got little mary on a flight to Belfast and drove up to get her, god forbid they couldn’t get home for few days and now mammy and daddy are blaming everyone else on fb… Believe me I know of few cases, he sé we now have over 60= of cases with UK veriant
They love locking everyone down but no problem importing the bIoody thing. 80 Brazilians fly in here no problem, probably carrying the new variant. lncompetent cIowns.
@Brendan Gordon: we are going to be in and out of lockdown for years unless we follow New Zealand. I would bet that a vaccine avoiding variant will appear at some stage.
'Deep concerns' over AI 'undress' apps being advertised on Irish social media
Stephen McDermott
3 hrs ago
3.8k
hail to the chiefs
Quiz: How much do you know about the five living US presidents?
5 hrs ago
13.7k
24
Spain
Young Irish woman dies after falling in popular climbing area near Malaga
8 hrs ago
64.6k
Your Cookies. Your Choice.
Cookies help provide our news service while also enabling the advertising needed to fund this work.
We categorise cookies as Necessary, Performance (used to analyse the site performance) and Targeting (used to target advertising which helps us keep this service free).
We and our 138 partners store and access personal data, like browsing data or unique identifiers, on your device. Selecting Accept All enables tracking technologies to support the purposes shown under we and our partners process data to provide. If trackers are disabled, some content and ads you see may not be as relevant to you. You can resurface this menu to change your choices or withdraw consent at any time by clicking the Cookie Preferences link on the bottom of the webpage .Your choices will have effect within our Website. For more details, refer to our Privacy Policy.
We and our vendors process data for the following purposes:
Use precise geolocation data. Actively scan device characteristics for identification. Store and/or access information on a device. Personalised advertising and content, advertising and content measurement, audience research and services development.
Cookies Preference Centre
We process your data to deliver content or advertisements and measure the delivery of such content or advertisements to extract insights about our website. We share this information with our partners on the basis of consent. You may exercise your right to consent, based on a specific purpose below or at a partner level in the link under each purpose. Some vendors may process your data based on their legitimate interests, which does not require your consent. You cannot object to tracking technologies placed to ensure security, prevent fraud, fix errors, or deliver and present advertising and content, and precise geolocation data and active scanning of device characteristics for identification may be used to support this purpose. This exception does not apply to targeted advertising. These choices will be signaled to our vendors participating in the Transparency and Consent Framework.
Manage Consent Preferences
Necessary Cookies
Always Active
These cookies are necessary for the website to function and cannot be switched off in our systems. They are usually only set in response to actions made by you which amount to a request for services, such as setting your privacy preferences, logging in or filling in forms. You can set your browser to block or alert you about these cookies, but some parts of the site will not then work.
Targeting Cookies
These cookies may be set through our site by our advertising partners. They may be used by those companies to build a profile of your interests and show you relevant adverts on other sites. They do not store directly personal information, but are based on uniquely identifying your browser and internet device. If you do not allow these cookies, you will experience less targeted advertising.
Functional Cookies
These cookies enable the website to provide enhanced functionality and personalisation. They may be set by us or by third party providers whose services we have added to our pages. If you do not allow these cookies then these services may not function properly.
Performance Cookies
These cookies allow us to count visits and traffic sources so we can measure and improve the performance of our site. They help us to know which pages are the most and least popular and see how visitors move around the site. All information these cookies collect is aggregated and therefore anonymous. If you do not allow these cookies we will not be able to monitor our performance.
Store and/or access information on a device 95 partners can use this purpose
Cookies, device or similar online identifiers (e.g. login-based identifiers, randomly assigned identifiers, network based identifiers) together with other information (e.g. browser type and information, language, screen size, supported technologies etc.) can be stored or read on your device to recognise it each time it connects to an app or to a website, for one or several of the purposes presented here.
Personalised advertising and content, advertising and content measurement, audience research and services development 123 partners can use this purpose
Use limited data to select advertising 93 partners can use this purpose
Advertising presented to you on this service can be based on limited data, such as the website or app you are using, your non-precise location, your device type or which content you are (or have been) interacting with (for example, to limit the number of times an ad is presented to you).
Create profiles for personalised advertising 68 partners can use this purpose
Information about your activity on this service (such as forms you submit, content you look at) can be stored and combined with other information about you (for example, information from your previous activity on this service and other websites or apps) or similar users. This is then used to build or improve a profile about you (that might include possible interests and personal aspects). Your profile can be used (also later) to present advertising that appears more relevant based on your possible interests by this and other entities.
Use profiles to select personalised advertising 67 partners can use this purpose
Advertising presented to you on this service can be based on your advertising profiles, which can reflect your activity on this service or other websites or apps (like the forms you submit, content you look at), possible interests and personal aspects.
Create profiles to personalise content 32 partners can use this purpose
Information about your activity on this service (for instance, forms you submit, non-advertising content you look at) can be stored and combined with other information about you (such as your previous activity on this service or other websites or apps) or similar users. This is then used to build or improve a profile about you (which might for example include possible interests and personal aspects). Your profile can be used (also later) to present content that appears more relevant based on your possible interests, such as by adapting the order in which content is shown to you, so that it is even easier for you to find content that matches your interests.
Use profiles to select personalised content 28 partners can use this purpose
Content presented to you on this service can be based on your content personalisation profiles, which can reflect your activity on this or other services (for instance, the forms you submit, content you look at), possible interests and personal aspects. This can for example be used to adapt the order in which content is shown to you, so that it is even easier for you to find (non-advertising) content that matches your interests.
Measure advertising performance 115 partners can use this purpose
Information regarding which advertising is presented to you and how you interact with it can be used to determine how well an advert has worked for you or other users and whether the goals of the advertising were reached. For instance, whether you saw an ad, whether you clicked on it, whether it led you to buy a product or visit a website, etc. This is very helpful to understand the relevance of advertising campaigns.
Measure content performance 56 partners can use this purpose
Information regarding which content is presented to you and how you interact with it can be used to determine whether the (non-advertising) content e.g. reached its intended audience and matched your interests. For instance, whether you read an article, watch a video, listen to a podcast or look at a product description, how long you spent on this service and the web pages you visit etc. This is very helpful to understand the relevance of (non-advertising) content that is shown to you.
Understand audiences through statistics or combinations of data from different sources 67 partners can use this purpose
Reports can be generated based on the combination of data sets (like user profiles, statistics, market research, analytics data) regarding your interactions and those of other users with advertising or (non-advertising) content to identify common characteristics (for instance, to determine which target audiences are more receptive to an ad campaign or to certain contents).
Develop and improve services 74 partners can use this purpose
Information about your activity on this service, such as your interaction with ads or content, can be very helpful to improve products and services and to build new products and services based on user interactions, the type of audience, etc. This specific purpose does not include the development or improvement of user profiles and identifiers.
Use limited data to select content 33 partners can use this purpose
Content presented to you on this service can be based on limited data, such as the website or app you are using, your non-precise location, your device type, or which content you are (or have been) interacting with (for example, to limit the number of times a video or an article is presented to you).
Use precise geolocation data 39 partners can use this special feature
With your acceptance, your precise location (within a radius of less than 500 metres) may be used in support of the purposes explained in this notice.
Actively scan device characteristics for identification 23 partners can use this special feature
With your acceptance, certain characteristics specific to your device might be requested and used to distinguish it from other devices (such as the installed fonts or plugins, the resolution of your screen) in support of the purposes explained in this notice.
Ensure security, prevent and detect fraud, and fix errors 77 partners can use this special purpose
Always Active
Your data can be used to monitor for and prevent unusual and possibly fraudulent activity (for example, regarding advertising, ad clicks by bots), and ensure systems and processes work properly and securely. It can also be used to correct any problems you, the publisher or the advertiser may encounter in the delivery of content and ads and in your interaction with them.
Deliver and present advertising and content 87 partners can use this special purpose
Always Active
Certain information (like an IP address or device capabilities) is used to ensure the technical compatibility of the content or advertising, and to facilitate the transmission of the content or ad to your device.
Match and combine data from other data sources 64 partners can use this feature
Always Active
Information about your activity on this service may be matched and combined with other information relating to you and originating from various sources (for instance your activity on a separate online service, your use of a loyalty card in-store, or your answers to a survey), in support of the purposes explained in this notice.
Link different devices 46 partners can use this feature
Always Active
In support of the purposes explained in this notice, your device might be considered as likely linked to other devices that belong to you or your household (for instance because you are logged in to the same service on both your phone and your computer, or because you may use the same Internet connection on both devices).
Identify devices based on information transmitted automatically 75 partners can use this feature
Always Active
Your device might be distinguished from other devices based on information it automatically sends when accessing the Internet (for instance, the IP address of your Internet connection or the type of browser you are using) in support of the purposes exposed in this notice.
Save and communicate privacy choices 54 partners can use this special purpose
Always Active
The choices you make regarding the purposes and entities listed in this notice are saved and made available to those entities in the form of digital signals (such as a string of characters). This is necessary in order to enable both this service and those entities to respect such choices.
have your say