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DEMOCRATIC VOTERS IN Iowa are choosing the person they want to be the next president of the United States as the race to become the party’s nominee for the 2020 election hots up.
But what are the Iowa caucuses and why do they matter?
They are essentially small local meetings where neighbours and strangers stand up to show their support for a particular candidate, and to persuade others to join them. Iowa’s 41 national delegates are up for grabs, but the real stakes for the candidates are all about momentum.
The caucuses are the first opportunity for Democrats to express their preferences in what has been a long and tumultuous primary. They set the tone for the month-long sprint through the early primary states, after which the field of candidates is typically culled. The winner usually receives a boost in media attention and fundraising that can propel them through subsequent contests. An unexpectedly bad performance, meanwhile, can hinder a candidate.
The caucuses do not always pick the eventual nominee, but for Democrats they have been more predictive – every winner since 2000 has gone on to become the Democratic nominee. And historically, they have been known to catapult underdog candidates’ campaigns to prominence – as they did with Barack Obama in 2008, or Jimmy Carter in 1976.
Where and when do they take place – and who participates?
The caucuses began at 7pm local time on Monday. Democrats gather in school gymnasiums, union halls and community centres – known in caucus parlance as precincts. There are 1,678 precincts in Iowa this year and an additional 99 satellite precincts, which are for caucuses held outside of the state or at different times of the day and in locations that may be more accessible to those with disabilities or those who have to work during the main event.
Some precincts could have hundreds of Iowans turn up, and some may have fewer than 10. The 2008 Democratic caucuses set a record when nearly 240,000 Iowans turned out – this year, party operatives were expecting turnout to be big, but not likely to be record-breaking.
Any registered Democrat who will be 18 by election day can participate, which includes 17-year-olds with an upcoming birthday. And Iowans can newly register or switch their party registration at their caucus site on the day – so campaigns have been courting disaffected Republicans and new voters across Iowa.
What happens at a caucus?
There are essentially two rounds of voting in the caucuses.
When all the caucusgoers at a precinct have signed in, the attendees elect a caucus chair, who directs the proceedings. Representatives of the campaigns have an opportunity to stand up and give a last-minute pitch for their candidate, and then the caucuses begin, with a process known as the “first alignment”.
That is where attendees gather in the designated area for their favoured candidate. In most precincts, any candidate that receives the support of 15% of the people in the room is considered “viable” and moves on to the next round of voting. Caucusgoers who chose a viable candidate in their first round are locked in and cannot choose a new candidate in the second.
Supporters of candidates who did not meet that threshold, however, have four options: they can support a viable candidate, or join with supporters of another non-viable candidate close to 15% support to get them to viability. Alternatively, they can try to entice supporters of other non-viable candidates over to theirs to get them over the threshold. Or they can go home.
This part of the caucuses – known as realignment – is the most crucial, and typically the most chaotic, part of the night. Well-organised campaigns have volunteers, staff and surrogates working the room, trying to win over caucusgoers from opposing campaigns.
At the end of realignment, the caucus chair takes a final count of the room and transmits the numbers to the Iowa Democratic Party.
How are the results calculated?
The results in each precinct are used by the Iowa Democratic Party to calculate what is known as the “state delegate equivalent”, or how many delegates each candidate gets at the Iowa Democratic Party convention. That number ultimately translates to how many of Iowa’s 41 national delegates each candidate gets at the national convention.
How are this year’s caucuses different from years past?
For the first time, caucusgoers will record their choices on a slip of paper, which they will sign to certify their support. The caucus leaders will collect those presidential preference cards and turn them into the Iowa Democratic Party, and they will be used if any candidate requests a recount.
This year, there are only two rounds of alignment, rather than the multiple rounds in years past, and supporters of a viable candidate after the first alignment are locked into that candidate. In previous caucuses, every attendee could choose a new candidate on each realignment.
The satellite caucuses are new, and the Iowa Democratic Party was allowing attendees to check in early rather than at their precinct site, a move aimed at cutting down on the long lines and wait times in years past.
But the biggest change is in how the Iowa Democratic Party will report its results. Previously, they only released the state delegate equivalent numbers; now, they are releasing the raw totals from the first and second alignments, as well as the state delegate equivalents.
Media organisations decide the winner based on state delegate equivalents – but with more data being released, the campaigns have signalled they plan to spin the numbers in their favour, whatever the eventual result.
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At last a step in the right direction, pity the way it had to happen.
In July 2013 Ciara Conway asked the Minister for Children and Youth Affairs #Francesfitzgerald when the
findings of the investigation following the absconsions from Gleann Alainn special care unit in
October 2011 will be available; if she will provide an update and a timeline for publication; and
if she will make a statement on the matter.
Minister #Francesfitizgerald said her department has sought the information requested by the Deputy from the HSE and I will provide the Deputy with the information as soon as it becomes available.
The findings of this investigation are still not available over 2 and half years later.
Minister Fitzgerald
Another quango. But one that is needed for a change. So why didn’t Shatter announce this earlier? Unless election sound bites.
Everything will change and nothing will change.
Looks like a scene from Cagney & Lacey. Appointing a new commissioner however should have nothing to do with gender. The intern commish is tainted by who trained her! We need a new outside Commish similar to the PSNI, if she gets the job it’s just a political stunt.
The acting Comm. has lost credibility through association and the senior rank she enjoyed in the force.
No doubt she was the good egg in a stinking basket at the top but we need an outside commissioner.
Agree. New (outside) commissioner required. Ms. O’Sullivan complicit in not taking action.
So that’s what Shatter had in mind post report. These are his proposals.
And they are excellent. Long overdue.
I’d note he resigned but there are a bunch of guards accused of pretty insane corruption or incompetence who haven’t been fired. Or even suspended. Or even talked about or criticised.
If he had come out with these at the time of GSOC or any other scandal in the last year from the force he would now be hailed by the public.
Instead we got huddling with Callinan, not dealing with the Penalty points openly, the way he treated McCabe and Wilson.
His own worst enemy in the end.
Of course the minister is going to express support for the commsioner. You can’t half support the head of your police force.
You either support him fully or fire him.
Paragraph 19.98
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Paraphrase: The Minister went no further in determining McCabe’s complaint than asking and receiving advice from one man, the man who was the subject of the complaint.
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Shatter is an exceptionally intelligent and diligent man. As so often in Ireland the deference to authority and to uniform, to good relations, trumped all reason and learning.
Shatter had enough grounds to fire him.
That Callinan did not even see the need to stand down earlier shows the mindset that leads to problems like this.
No one bar Shatter turned this from a potential triumph in to a a crisis that led to both he and the commissioner being thrown out.
Callinan had Shatter by the short and curlies. Eventually it was taken out of Shatter’s hand. So Callinan went. Shatter’s position was always on a knife edge.
The Department of Justice (?) needs a complete overhaul also. Will we see that ?
So many articles about one subject.
A Journal habit Saul. Surprised we don’t have an article to mark Gerry’s one week anniversary!
I don’t recall ever seeing a Garda Commissioner in public not wearing the full attire which comes with the position, as in the picture above. I’m not sure if this is a good thing or a bad thing. I’m also not sure if I even care, but it’s making 5pm come that bit faster.
I like that Noirin O’Sullivan left the uniform at home.
It underlines the difference between a political meeting and an official Garda meeting. I hope to see a lot more separation of function.
That’s exactly what they wanted you to think Paul and it obviously worked! Beware the wolf in sheep’s clothing!
I see she has taken on the obligatory grumpy face and serious tone and formal outfit.
I just threw-up a little bit.
Relax, women are now in charge. Sorted.
Their needs to be an absoloute separation between the minister for justice and the commisioner.
Right that’s it. As and from today I’m setting up an inquiry to find out why I’m still waiting for a job in this country. Wallace was correct on Ray D’arcy yesterday about the amount of non contract jobs. Do you think if I set up an inquiry I’d be paid? Oh that’s right I’d pay myself!!!!
Minister said: ” … the law is for everyone. And everyone is equally accountable before it. We will ensure that we have a fair and functional system where genuine allegations of wrongdoing are treated in an effective and accountable manner.”. Minister, thank you for seeing it.
Please clarify for us – does this include addressing offences committed in the past during “in camera proceedings” referring to past rapes, defilements, endangerments, abductions, torture, homicides and the like?
No, the corruption in the Child Abuse Industry will continue unabated for now. That’s the beauty of the secret courts and the in camera rule, “Hear No Evil, See No Evil So No Evil Exists” and crimes committed cant be reported or prosecuted because corrupt judges will jail you in secret for speaking out and trying to report crime to corrupt Gardai who wont investigate.
Exactly, and now with the old minister for children becoming the minister for Justice, a lot more will be hidden from the people.
With Ireland assimilating non Irish children into white Roman Catholic families, it is worrying as it an exact copy of Hitler’s regime, “in the best interests of the children” of course. Sweden also doing the same too.
have your say