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GE2024Out of the dog houseBY MOST METRICS, this has been an election the Labour Party will be very pleased with.
At the time of writing, the party has won eight seats and is guaranteed to win two more with an eleventh looking very possible.
The party will see six (or seven) new TDs enter Dáil Éireann this time around, almost doubling its six seats won in 2020.
So what does this say about the Labour Party’s brand – have they officially been detoxified?
This is a question that never fails to split an audience – Labour members and supporters hate it and will vehemently argue that the days of a radioactive Labour Party are long gone.
When asked by The Journal recently if her party has lost its traditional labour base, party leader Ivana Bacik was having none of it.
“I absolutely refute that.
“That line has been trotted out in every election… I remember that line being used against the party in the 1980s,” Bacik responded.
But for significant swaths of the public, the memory of austerity is still raw and the effects of it, and the crash that came before, are still very much felt. Rightly or wrongly, the Labour Party continues to be associated with this.
Baby steps
The results of this election show that the party is continuing to take small steps further out of the country’s bad books but they are still a long, long way from their previous highs.
A large part of why the party has had three decent elections this year (remember the locals and Europeans?) is probably down to two related things: the passage of time and the party’s crop of fresh faces.
The party ran 32 candidates in this election and received 4.7% of first preference votes, very similar to the Social Democrats’ 4.8% and significantly above that of the other smaller parties.
Although its percentage increase in first preference vote share compared to 2020 was just marginally up (with an increase of 0.3%), it still managed to add five (possibly six) TDs.
It’s significant however, that almost ten years on from Labour’s disastrous election of 2016, when the party received a battering from the electorate after its stint in government and returned only seven of its 37 TDs, the party has not managed to massively increase its vote share or number of TDs.
No poll toppers
It’s worth noting that not one Labour TD managed to top the polls in this election. Even in 2016 when the party was decimated, the party’s Brendan Howlin, who went on to become its leader, managed to top the poll in Wexford.
By comparison, other smaller parties did manage to have some poll toppers this time around.
Take the Social Democrats for example, Deputy leader Cian O’Callaghan topped the poll in Dublin Bay North. Or Independent Ireland, where both Michael Fitzmaurice in Roscommon-Galway and Michael Collins in Cork South-West had the highest number of first preference votes in their constituencies.
The most popular of all Labour’s candidates this time around was Rob O’Donoghue in Dublin Fingal West who secured 16.7% of first preference votes – above party leader Ivana Bacik who secured 14.3% in Dublin Bay South and former leader Alan Kelly who secured 15.5% in Tipperary North.
Across the board, O’Donoghue, Bacik and Kelly were the only three of Labour’s 32 candidates to receive the second-highest number of votes in their constituencies.
Others also placed high however, with Louth’s Ged Nash and Fingal East’s Duncan Smith both placing third.
Dublin South-West’s Ciarán Ahern, Kildare South’s Mark Wall and Wexford’s George Lawlor each received the fourth highest amount of first preference votes in their constituencies.
All of this indicates the party’s strong popularity in these areas and shows they were well in contention for the seats early on, without heavily having to rely on transfers.
That said, the party was still notably transfer-friendly this time, more than it was in 2020.
Take Limerick City’s Conor Sheehan who secured the constituency’s fourth seat despite placing 7th in first preference votes.
And the more obvious example is Marie Sherlock, who successfully won the fourth seat in the hotly contested battleground of Dublin Central despite receiving 633 fewer first preference votes than Gerry ‘The Monk’ Hutch.
With a new generation of Labour TDs entering the arena, the party looks poised to continue to build back its strength, but one thing remains indisputable: the electorate has been very slow to forgive.
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If a fully grown and matured adult man or woman wishes to go through the process of transitioning, I say let them at it.
But it is immoral and quite frankly child abuse to give pre-pubescent CHILDREN puberty blockers or to let them decide their own gender.
I don’t know if anyone remembers that disgraceful TV programme, “I am Jazz”, basically a 2 year old boy asked his mother when would the fairy come to make him into a girl. By the age of 5 this CHILD, was diagnosed with gender disphoria. Trans activists are always silent when this is brought up.
Apart from that, I think it’s socially responsible to teach 16 yr olds the basics of human sexuality (for their own protection) and for the younger kids, I think the example that peppa pig have where one of the characters has two mummies is also a very appropriate way to teach younger minds about the many different types of families we have in our modern world.
But transitioning children is wrong and should be called out as such by everyone.
@Kris Bopp: children don’t “transition”. Puberty blockers in countries where they are allowed are totally reversable. What is worse, what is actual child abuse is forcing a child to live a life as someone they are not. The suicide rate among trans kids is astronomical as a result. As for kids” choosing their own gender “….you do realise gender is a social construct and nothing to do with what’s between your kegs? You’re thinking of sex. Children are not allowed to change sex therefore your point is moot.
@Gearóid MacEachaidh: the suicide rate is not astronomical. Please stop this false narrative; it’s unhelpful and comes across as manipulative.
@Sean Ryan: Suicidal Ideation in Trans kids and teens is VERY high.
“Data indicate that 82% of transgender individuals have considered killing themselves and 40% have attempted suicide, with suicidality highest among transgender youth.”
Austin A, Craig SL, D’Souza S, McInroy LB. Suicidality Among Transgender Youth: Elucidating the Role of Interpersonal Risk Factors. J Interpers Violence. 2022 Mar;37(5-6):NP2696-NP2718. doi: 10.1177/0886260520915554. Epub 2020 Apr 29. Erratum in: J Interpers Violence. 2020 Jul 29;:886260520946128. PMID: 32345113.
@Sean Ryan: I’m working at the moment but I’ll be happy to provide stats this afternoon. You’re wrong.
@Tricia G: @Tricia G: Above all, every effort should be made to support anyone who needs it. Support for young people is essential; I say that as a former gender non-conforming youth (and a current gay man).
My criticism is that suicidal ideation is the not the same as suicide rate. Conflating them is irresponsible.
This research focuses on specific theories, namely minority stress theory and the interpersonal theory of suicide.
The overall jist is that there are myriad factors that impact suicidal ideation in young people; this may be higher for those with trans identities due to concomitant disorders as well as lack of support and being in a minority.
Points to be made clear (not problems, but need to be know)
This is secondary research. As with many studies, there will be some biases that are difficult to overcome. Here, recruitment came from social media, Tumblr and Reddit. All information is self-reported. Again, this is not uncommon and not a flaw, but it needs to be clear that suicidality was not assessed or diagnosed by mental health professionals.
Participant Characteristics are also worth looking at for anyone interested. A disproportionate number of transmen, which alone is worth research.
@Sean Ryan: facts are nothing when confronted with your edgelord catchphrases. Is there any word more used by the clueless to sound knowledgable than ‘narrative’?
@A$AP ETH: So no one can use the word “narrative”? OK. Then the statement about astronomical suicide rates is inaccurate.
@Sean Ryan: Ah, so when presented with actual scientific papers identifying that Trans youth have a very high rate of suicidal ideation and ATTEMPTED suicide you try and suggest that because they weren’t successful it’s not a problem.
Every single statistic has clearly demonstrated that trans youth have a high rate of suicide (if they’re not alive, they can’t report that they’re suicidal).
“In a study presented to the American Academy of Pediatrics, research showed a 60% decrease in moderate and severe depression who received gender-affirming care.
Additionally, there was 73% decrease in suicidality among transgender youth and non-binary youth. A fantastic feat for a community with an alarmingly high transgender suicide rate.” – Research Finds Significant Reduction in Depression, Suicidality in Youth Receiving Gender-Affirming Care or Puberty Blockers
Trans youth commit suicide and report suicidal thoughts at a rate far higher then Cis youth.
And the kicker – what lowers suicidal ideation is being ACCEPTED by their families and being accepted for who they are.
It is appalling to me that you’re so desperate to support your intolerance of trans youth that you would ignore the repeatedly reported facts.
@Gearóid MacEachaidh: Puberty blockers are not totally reversible. Among other concerns, they are known to cause loss of bone density, leading to a higher risk of fractures and osteoporosis. The majority of children who are prescribed puberty blockers also go on to take cross sex hormones, which in adults can increase the risk of certain cancers, infertility, heart problems and even psychosis. The truth is there is simply not enough known about the long term effects of puberty blockers to allow anyone to state they are reversible and that’s why the Irish Council of General Practitioners and the NHS no longer describe them as such.
@Sean Ryan: Suicidal Ideation is all you have to go on. The prevalance of actual suicide in the community are undocumented. You can unfortunately assume that if the attempt rate is that high in this community that the actual rate must be elevated too. You yourself acknoweldged in your previous post that they are a minority community with a lack of support. Which gearoid implied was a factor in the high rate of SI , so you actually agreed with him but padded it out with waffle about how their must be other factors at play, in the face of data confirming this community is significantly more at risk of suicide. Would you attempt to explain away the suicidal ideation of another less marginalised community to downplay the issues that led to that persons suicide/suicide attempt? I doubt it.
What do you want to do, send in Samantha Power to threaten them a “color revolution”? The people of Hungary elected Mr Orban, whether liberal busybodies like it or not.
@west awake: Orban has fascist tendencies whether right wing busybodies like it being ponted out or not.
@west awake: People are who they are, and shouldn’t be discriminated against when it comes to healthcare. At all. You’re entitled as an EU member to travel and receive healthcare if you need any. Especially if you can’t get a necessary procedure or operation at home. There’s no good reason to exclude people just because they were born intersex or gay. Think of all the tourist revenue Hungary could benefit from if they weren’t putting visitors off with their mediaeval laws.
The Irish population is in big decline. We need to acknowledge this and be a family friendly country.
@Brian Boru: Brian you comment on every article, no job? Mates?
You know your over the target when you are taking flack. The enemy is upset.
@Brian Boru: No, Ireland is not “in decline” & we have an increasing population who support our constitution and cherish all children of the nation equally. If you’d like to pay more taxes to subsidise Boris Johnson’s growing family, flights to the UK leave hourly, off you go & donate to the families of politicians.
Let’s ban everything Fiona doesn’t like.
How very uninclusive , should be LGBTQQIP2SA+
Thank God for Viktor Orban , Thank God for a Leader who isn’t afraid to take a stand against LGBTQ+’s agenda of pushing sexual perversions on communities .
@FixoUZLA: what agenda Jim? What perversions exactly? What’s wrong with anyone being gay? Looking forward to your answer.
Kick em out of the EU! There urgently needs to be a new treaty drawn up anyway, making certain minimum requirements before a country can apply to join the EU. Obvious stuff like financial stability and regulations but human rights and equality has to be one part of it.
@Gearóid MacEachaidh: good and while you are at it can I suggest that Ireland reforms it’s membership too and stops inflicting excessive high costs on citizens for car sales vrt , insurance premiums and instead allows us enjoy the benefits of the single market membership like it is suppose to / instead of insisting that we retain our own tax regimes that then force us to pay some of the highest prices for items like cars and insurances as an example / an example if car insurance was charged as cover Europe wide it would be much cheaper but there’s a whole range of expenses in Ireland where we don’t enjoy this single European principle in reality at all / instead we pontificate about other member states laws we don’t like / such hypocrisy
Yet another article about hungary being the absolute devil and Orban is the worst Ten years ago no one knew about this country,no one ever cared. Suddenly when the leftist agenda suits, everyone talks about it. I’m glad to know that there are countries where kids can be kids and not part of politics. Eat up all what america serves you up in this country, cause they are always so right in everything. Nothing but a follower yous are.
@G.G M: 10 years ago it wasn’t this bad. Use your head.
Oh I wouldn’t be too concerned about these children wanted blue hair and boys wearing skirts, I think it’s just kids been bold, they’ll be grand when they reach college age, as soon as they realize the other students are laughing at them they won’t be long in going back to normal behaviour, it’s just a faze they’re going through. I don’t why it gets so many column inches. Relax everybody.
Go Hungary!
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