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The Explainer / SoundCloud
HOW WOULD BREXIT affect Irish fridges, shelves, and shops?
We’re just three weeks out from the 29 March, the date by which the UK is due to leave the European Union, and a no-deal Brexit seems more likely than ever. Although companies are steering clear of speculation, there is a fear about what exists now as a free-flowing and open market could shudder to a halt, at least briefly, because of Brexit.
Ireland, of course, has a close business and trading relationship with the UK, which means Brexit, particularly the uncertainty that it’s brought, has threatened it.
Of particular significance are the Irish businesses that export to the UK, and rely on that UK market to a significant degree: if that market is closed off to them, or becomes less lucrative to export to, then that could threaten businesses to the point of collapse. This means that some foods produced and distributed inside Ireland could be at risk.
So what foods should we be worried about? In short, fresh produce – like agrifoods, fruit and vegetables – that Ireland imports through the UK. This could mean that there is a short period immediately after a no-deal Brexit where these foods could be in short supply.
Ireland also imports quite a bit of confectionery and baked goods from the UK, but because this is preservable it shouldn’t be a problem to source post a no-deal Brexit in the long run – although it could become more expensive.
The UK landbridge
The UK landbridge consists of the roads and ports Irish trucks use to get products to the EU, and vice versa. Around 150,000 Irish trucks use the landbridge a year; two-thirds of Irish goods exporters make use of the UK landbridge to access continental markets.
A further 53% of Irish goods exports (measured in volume) to all countries other than the UK are transported via the UK.
Meats and other ‘perishables’ are massively reliant on the UK landbridge. Although it’s more expensive than circumventing it, it’s also much faster: it takes less than 20 hours from Ireland through Great Britain to the EU, according to a report by the Irish Maritime Development Office (Nov 2018).
Dublin to France would double to 40 hours for direct roll-on, roll-off services. And if there are delays, it will affect the food we import and export.
If there are checks at Dover-Calais, and they take 80 seconds to carry out, that means the tailback of trucks will be “unrecoverable” – if they take 40 seconds, then there will be no change to the free-flowing system we have currently.
But Irish hauliers have said that it’s “unreasonable” to expect that no-deal Brexit checks would take just 40 seconds.
Tariffs
If there’s a no-deal Brexit, it will mean a number of products could be hit by tariffs, which is a tax imposed on goods or services from other countries in order to favour home industries.
Ireland’s biggest exports, beef and cheese, are at particular risk (of the 90% of Irish beef that is exported, 47% goes to the UK, and 87% of Irish cheddar cheese is exported to the UK).
The expectation is that the UK’s trading relationship with other countries would revert to World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules – meaning a set standard of tariffs (though they would have to apply to join).
The items that carry the highest import tariff rates under WTO rules are meat (49%), cereals (45%), sugars and confectionery (42%), and dairy products (31%). Here’s a list of the tariffs by commodity, meaning the extra cost of importing:
For bread, 95% of all flour used actually comes from the UK, so importing that would carry tariffs in a no-deal Brexit. Breadmakers have warned that if there is no deal, tariffs could result in prices increasing by between 10% and 15%, as breadmakers would be paying €172 extra per tonne of flour they import.
Gerald Cunningham, president of the Flour Confectioners and Bakers Association, told TheJournal.ie this when asked if it would mean there would be a shortage of bread: “I’d like to think that the shelves will be full, we don’t want to panic and put more pressure on bread-making businesses.
The main point is that ports need to stay open and free-flowing, the same with the borders.
The all-island economy
Flour, cheese and the meat industries are all based on north-south cooperation.
“Every year 400,000 lambs go South, and 400,000 pigs meet them and go North,” Irish Farmers’ Association president Joe Healy said at its AGM this year, adding that the organisation’s support was for the backstop to remain.
A UK committee was told that farmers in the North were so worried about the Republic of Ireland being closed off to them because of Brexit that they had considered breeding less lambs for this season.
If farmers in the North can’t send lambs down here, because of checks or because it just doesn’t make financial sense for them anymore, there could be a surplus in the North:
“We can’t eat our way out of the problem”, as one representative told TheJournal.ie.
Guinness is also another all-island-of-Ireland product: although it’s brewed at St James’ Gate, it’s then transported up to Belfast where it’s packaged, and some of it is then brought back down to Dublin for export.
Diageo told a UK Business committee that 18,000 of its trucks cross that border a year, “so even small hold-ups to process those truck movements would be really unwelcome”, it also stated in an annual report that it has no intention to change its supply chain because of Brexit.
In 2017, Ireland imported over 72,000 tonnes of potatoes, 62,000 tonnes of cheese, 72,000 tonnes of fish and shellfish and almost 70 million litres of water.
Almost 10,000 tonnes of tea and over 21,000 tonnes of coffee were imported in 2017.
Most of these are non-perishable goods, so if there is a delay, it’s reasonable to assume that the supply chain will catch up with itself eventually.
Shane Hamill of Bord Bia said that companies are going to try to offset costs as best they can.
“You’ll see a lot of companies reformulating their products, shifting their ingredients in order to manage any cost increases.
You might also see rounded pricing – food going for €1 instead of 97 cent.
Fish would also become more expensive. A Netherlands report on fishing in the EU says that if the United Kingdom “completely closed its marine areas, the UK, Ireland, the Netherlands and Belgium would be affected the most”.
“The most visible impact of Brexit on fish consumption would be expected in Ireland (more than 4% decline), followed by UK. The change in consumption is directly linked to the changes in consumer prices… The strongest increase of fish prices occurs in Ireland, where consumer prices of fish products would grow by more than 9%.
The reason for such a high price reaction is the large dependence on trade in the fish processing sector. In Ireland, about 80% of consumption is sourced by imports out of which 70% comes from Europe, leading to a high sensitivity of consumer prices on trade changes.
Fish production would also decrease, according to the same report.
An interesting note on potatoes and potato seeds: Michael Creed, the Minster for Agriculture, Food and the Marine told the Dáil that seed potatoes are banned from entering the EU from third countries.
Traders have been forewarned about this, he said, and all advice to Irish growers is to ensure that UK seed is supplied before the end of March in order to facilitate the 2019 planting season.
“There will then be at least another 9 months before the 2020 planting season for the European Commission to consider requests from the UK for amendment to Annex III of the Plant Health directive based on a detailed scientific justification as to why the amendment is warranted,” he said – so they’re putting that off for later.
A good by-product of Brexit, however, is that it may get people thinking about how they get their food so cheaply and so quickly.
“I think people are starting to pay a little bit more attention to what is on their shelves,” Shane Hamill says, “so there’s certainly a new appreciation not only for how the food arrives and how quickly it takes, but also where it’s coming from and that’s probably a good thing.”
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We import potatoes?
@Philip Kavanagh:
They are way cheaper.
Just about the only thing we can produce on Irish farms that is viable at world market price is milk.
@Philip Kavanagh: we don’t grow some of the potatoes varieties that Irish potato snobs need, they just have to pay more for those…
@Vic’s Burd: Grow what you like, it’s not as if it’s difficult or takes up much space: http://www.vegetablegardener.com/item/14721/build-your-own-potato-growing-box
@Patrick Kearns: I started growing vegetables without any experience at all, only Youtube videos…..I had so many potatoes, tomatos, and especially brussel sprouts that I was giving them away to family, friends and neighbours.
Great article, we’ll-researched.
So we import 70 million litres of water every year. Otherwise, no doubt, half of us would die of the thirst.
This brexit might actually give us a well-deserved kick in the arse.
@Páid Ó Donnchú: So we live on the island surrounded by sea and we import fish. Cool!
@Páid Ó Donnchú: Bottled water. A lot of us don’t need fluoride to keep us calm so that the overlords can shove whatever they like down our neck’s.
@Adam Hernes: you can grow garlic in your garden yet the stuff on the shelves comes from China .. not even another European country.
Wll they ever Feck off already and actually BREXIT!!!!
@Brian Kelleher: they’re like a bad smell.
@Brian Kelleher: lol
Not a care in the world or hint of compassion in relation to the suffering the animals will have to endure on longer journeys, never mind the torture they go through already when they get to their destination.
@ldyjokbg: we humans are a disgusting race. As long as we have our toast dinner and our crispy bacon…
Mmmmmm bacon…
@Patricia Mcnamara: I usually have toast for breakfeast, what’s it like for dinner?
@ldyjokbg: that’s emigration for ya…
@sequoia: nice…
Maybe it will teach parents to feed their kids with more healthy food. rather then all the crap they give them risking Diabeties and Obesity. more exercise and less game time would help as well.
@Michael Bardon:
True enough.
A lot of retrospective studies indicate that wartime and post-war food rationing was quite beneficial for the general health of the nations that had it imposed.
@Michael Bardon: Well said!
As the Chinese say, every crisis has a silver lining, any for Ireland it will be a golden (or silver) opportunity to abandon the vast amount of junk food that we are eating, most of which is imported from Britain.
Next time you are in a supermarket take a look at what people are buying for their families. The amount of unnecessary junk is amazing, and it’s all expensive as the consumer has to pay the transportation and advertising costs. Also, stop to examine the advertising on TV: most of it is for items you can easily live without.
It only takes a few minutes to make biscuits, and you can personalise them with nuts, dried fruit, spices, anything you have left over in the press. Bread is even easier to make. If people eliminated the crisps, biscuits, minerals, etc. not only would their health improve, their pockets would be fuller too!
For goods that we really can’t do without or produce, why is continental Europe not being explored? France and Italy have excellent agricultural products which could be imported. This could be a two-way project, as they already import a lot of our butter and meat.
@Shedonny: you got a nice biscuit recipe then?
@Shedonny: It says 95% of flour comes from the UK, your bikkies might still prove in short supply.
@Shedonny: Well said. Why has Ireland always looked over their shoulder to the UK? We are in the EU so we should be exploiting more food from the continental Europe. As said Italy and France have great food. We do have Lidl and Aldi which is good but let’s also have a French supermarkets. For example their butter and cheese is just as good as the UK .
@Anita OGalligan: Most Irish people like plain cheese, the French stuff would be a bit strong for our palates Large percentage of Aldi and Lidls stuff in made here or in the UK.
@Shedonny: well said. Why have we always looking over our shoulder to the UK. We are in The EU. We should be doing more trade with our EU partners. They have great produce in fruit and vegetables plus cheeses and salamis and wines. A wonderful selection of fish. Mediterranean food is very healthy.
@Shedonny: we are in the EU since 1972. Why are we still so dependent on the UK. We should be paying more attention on countries in theEU. There is very healthy food in Italy, France, Spain etc. we could copy the health services like Germany and The Netherlands which are very good.
@Shedonny: Well said, As I’ve said many times, we should be looking to our EU partners. After all, we’re in te EU so we should forcus more on their market. The food in eg: France, Italy, Greece etc: is healthy. After all.
Irish people go to these countries for holiday so why don’t they adopt their food permanently or is it that they only chase English/Irish food which is a pity.
I presume people will still eat it.
There is a president for flour and bakers.. Well that’s a new one..
@TechBuzz Ireland: well the obvious thing to do is to a major return to wheat growing! It’s called self sufficiency.
@Martin O’Reilly:
True.
But there would also have to be major starts or re-starts in milling facility and associated logistics here.
This would take time and money.
@Martin O’Reilly: we grow plenty of wheat, but mill capacity in Ireland isn’t enough for our needs.
We are now beginning to see the results of supermarket buying policies, and indeed of the way that customers happily throw their ‘buy one, get one free’ into their trollies en route to their bins. We go along with the continued squeezing of the producer until a lot of them are forced out of business and replaced by imports.
If Brexit helps stop this kind of shopping and the resultant food waste, and helps stop the slide out of business by more and more Irish producers, maybe some good will come out of it. We’re an agricultural nation, but we can no longer feed ourselves. We were down to just 140 commercial growers, last time I looked.
Supply of bread should be unaffected!
Guinness production unaffected!!
Twill be grand!!!
Where did the 40 hour journey to France come from? I did all these routes in the 70’s and 80’s and the sailing times were Rosslare-Le Havre 22 hours, Rosslare-Cherbourg 18 hours and Cork-Roscoff 12 hours. The landbridge involves shorter times at sea but necessitates a long drive through the UK in a gas-guzzling monstrosity that leaves a considerable carbon footprint in its wake.
@Pat Kelly: Probably the new Belgian and Dutch routes I’m guessing.
Ok maybe I’m missing something here I realise we rely on the U.K. land bridge so after Brexit is it not possible to up the importation of produce through France etc through our ports Rosslare been the closest to France, strangely since Irish Ferries cancelled there French service from Rosslare to France I haven’t heard a whisper of any contingency plans like another RoRo service stepping in like DFDS or similar. It seems to me if a no deal Brexit does happen the only ship currently sailing to France will be Stena Line whilst Dublin will be even more gridlocked as more freight fresh produce will travel through there likewise exportation the same thing. Ireland exports a lot of Mushrooms and is reliant on the Land bridge for quick transport onward to Europe this will suffer too.
@In my opinion: There are actually contingency plans for this and more ships have been sourced for direct routes to France. If you watch TV you’ll have seen a new ferry to France is being advertised and I quick Google will show what else has been planned. The problem is the route takes 40hrs compared to 20hrs over the UK landbridge.
We are far more prepared for a hard Brexit than our neighbours who have been expecting unicorns to save their day. Of course the housing crisis hasn’t helped, we’d have poached far more business if we had anywhere for the extra workforce to live.
@Patrick Kearns: the advertising you refer to is Irish Ferries new ship that’s doing the Dublin to France route it’s this ship that’s left Rosslare with just one company serving the France route via Rosslare ( shortest route ) instead they IF will further gridlock Dublin streets and port tunnel with more cars and trucks while Rosslare roads lie quiet and easily accessible for all. There has been no noise about a contingency for Rosslare no mention of mention of DFDS or P&O coming in to fill the void. The only thing we hear is about the extra customs officers and the procurement of a new site. In my eyes it’s a prime example of anything beyond the pale is not important. Saying all that I do understand that Dublin contributes more to Irish economy that any other city or town.
@Patrick Kearns: the new Irish Ferries ship will only be doing direct Dublin-France sailings in the summer season, it’s it intended to run it on Dublin-Holyhead in wintertime.
@In my opinion: I did say say to Google for more info…: https://www.ft.com/content/dbeecd9c-3754-11e8-8b98-2f31af407cc8
@Patrick Kearns: link leads to FT subscription
@Patrick Kearns: Why does it take 40 hours ? If I get the Cork to Roscoff ferry I seem to recall it takes me 16 hours and I’m in Brittany. I’m mystified as to how it takes a lorry 24 hours more.
@Éamonn Ó Catháin: same thing with Rosslare it’s the shortest journey
@In my opinion: Main points: “CLdN, a Luxembourg-based shipping company, has introduced two “mega vessels” on new direct freight routes linking Dublin with the Belgian port of Zeebrugge and the Dutch port of Rotterdam.
“In anticipation of Brexit, the shipping community was looking for alternative solutions . . . seeking a good balance between costs, frequency and lead-time,” CLdN told the Financial Times.
Brittany Ferries will start a new service between Cork on Ireland’s southern coast and the Spanish port of Santander this month.
Meanwhile, Irish Continental Group will boost freight capacity nearly 10-fold between Dublin and the French port of Cherbourg this summer when a new ferry comes into service.
Weekly freight capacity on the route would increase from 120 to 1,155 trucks, although some of that would be reserved for tourist vehicles in the holiday season, the company said.”
You know, you can still search the internet yourself rather than relying on the kindness of strangers! : P
@Patrick Kearns: but what you’ve just posted is Dublin Dublin more Dublin interspersed with a bit of cork yet Rosslare the shortest possible journey is neglected leaving one ferry company to sail the Rosslare France route. I know behind the scenes there is a lot of work allegedly going on but that could be lip service I guess we’ll have to wait and see.
@Patrick Kearns: I fully realise I can search the internet but you provided an article which I thought would save me from searching myself and living in wexford I’m fully aware of what’s going on in Rosslare or more so what’s not going on
@In my opinion: if you discount centralised payments HSE, public servants ,supermarkets, ESB and phone companies the contribution gets small very quickly .
A great article.
stop subsidising the horse racing industry and hand the land over to farmers to grow cereal crops and veg !
@Eric Davies: less land used for crops than anytime in recent history. EU paying subsidies not to grow anything. Thirty years ago every second field in East Donegal was planted with spuds now it’s rushes.
@Cathal: agree 100% cathal – loads of fields near where i live – not a crop of any kind in sight – good land too – used to be farmed back in the late 70′s early 80′s – but now its either left unattended and people use it as a rubbish tip – has cattle on it for half the year or horses – a lot more belongs to stud farms and is used for the horse racing industry – i have about 3/4 an acre of garden and use one small section of it to grow everything from spuds, carrots , leeks , peppers , salad leaves ,beetroot even grow cherry tomatoes in hanging baskets along my garden walls… plenty to see us through winter and summer – though i think a lot of this ‘brexit’ stuff is just scaremongering by suppliers and politicians alike from all sides – and a bloody good excuse to hike up prices and introduce tariffs !
Ireland is going to be Veganaize
@artur filip: Eh no. You missed the bit where it says fruit and veg are going to be particularly hard hit… Best grow your own or it’ll be fry ups for breakfast, lunch and dinner!
@artur filip: And in English ?
@Éamonn Ó Catháin: Advocado on gluten free rye and heavy on the veganaise! I’m guessing it’s an eggless mayonnaise substitute.
Ridiculous speculation. We’re an Island with ports. Last time I looked there were lots of lorries on the Rosslare to LeHarve ferry .
@Margaret Doyle: that route is being cancelled
Grow our own. We will manage!
Dreamt I threw Farage out of a plane !! !! !! !
@anthony o cathain: Or that unelected charlaton chosen by Boris the Doris
No jack would happen…
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