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THE PROPERTY MARKET can be difficult to predict at the best of times, but the coronavirus pandemic in 2020 brought with it a level of uncertainty that few had experienced before.
For some people, lockdown brought the opportunity to buckle down with savings. In fact, Irish household savings were ‘turbocharged’ by Covid during the first seven months of the year, with savings of €10 billion reported by Ibec.
For others, lockdown brought unemployment and a depletion to their funds. The Covid-19 adjusted unemployment rate for November 2020 was 21%. In the same month in 2019, unemployment stood at 4.7%.
This economic ambiguity led many to believe that the property market was set for a downturn – when in reality prices increased. According to the latest Daft.ie report, the average listed price of housing rose by 7.4% in the year up to December 2020.
Pair this with the lowest figure for stock nationally in almost 15 years (there were 15,400 properties available to buy on December 1), and it can be difficult to determine what property buyers and sellers should expect in 2021.
With this in mind, we spoke to James McDermott, Director of Sherry Fitzgerald McDermott in Co Carlow, about the changes he expects to see in the market this year.
1. People will continue to move outside of cities
Many of us heard of people leaving the capital and moving back to their family homes in the countryside during the first lockdown – and James expects that many people will set down roots in their new location.
“We’ll definitely see more people moving out of cities,” he says. “We have seen that already.”
Whereas buyers before may have had the view to commute to Dublin for work, working from home has showed that some employees don’t need to be in the office at all.
“We’re meeting a lot of people decamping from Dublin – but they’re not decamping to commute back, they’re decamping… period.
I meet couples who say they’ve a two-bedroom apartment on the south side of Dublin with two small kids, they’re working from home and they said they’ll never do it again.
“People are beginning to realise what bang for their buck they can get. I mean for the price of an average starter home apartment in South Co Dublin, they could buy a four or five-bedroom detached house on an acre in another county and they’ll have access to schools, shops and restaurants.
“We’re definitely seeing a trend of people beginning to move out of the cities, but not with the view of commuting back.”
2. Multi-functional homes will be of higher importance
Anyone who has worked from home with their partner, housemates or small children over the past few months will know the difficulty that comes with trying to concentrate as other members of the household mull around you, or the feeling of not being able to switch off when you sit down to eat dinner at the same table you worked at all day.
As a result, having a home that can adapt to your needs will be especially important to modern buyers, according to James.
“We’re finding that people are far more open to the notion that a property is rolling with you over the course of a 20 or 30 year period,” he says. “People with infants or small dependent children interpret their living space very differently. People with teenage kids can interpret that space differently to people with adult children who have moved back home.”
People are looking for slightly different things from their home. They’re not put off by the notion of having to make changes.
However, James says there’s still an emphasis on buying a ‘traditional’-style home.
“What they’re looking for doesn’t necessarily have to be cutting edge… I think Irish people in general are quite conservative when it comes to buying a house. We’ve had really ‘wow’ houses on the market and people will go ‘my God, that is amazing’, and they are amazing, but the conservative nature of Irish people kind of shies away from making commitments to that type of property.”
I think when it comes to buying a property, we play it very safe, we’re very much guided by our parents. And if not directly by parents, by parental attitudes.
3. There will be an increase in supply
The coronavirus pandemic led to many people who were intending to sell their property to put their plans on hold, but James reckons there will be a “healthier” supply over the next 12 months.
“We met a lot of people in the earlier part of 2020 intent on coming to the market with secondhand stuff or occupiers looking at upgrading. But with the uncertainty that followed in the year, a lot of those people said ‘no, it’s just just too many things up in the air’. People who were looking at upscaling or downgrading said ‘I’m not sure what’s happening with my work, I’m not sure where I’m going to be in six months time, I’ll hold off selling.’ So we had a lot of stuff that should have come to the market this year.
“We will probably see a little bit more confidence in the eyes of sellers come back this month, and I think we will see an easing of the Covid impact probably mid year. I would imagine that we will end up this year with slightly healthier supply, slightly more stuff coming to the marketplace. The market is probably going to continue to perform in around the levels that are performing now.”
4. House prices won’t drop
On the back of last quarter’s 7.4% year-on-year rise in house prices – the largest increase in three years – James doesn’t see house prices dropping this coming year.
We’re becoming accustomed to living with this and becoming customers trading within this environment.
“All indications we have at our fingertips today would suggest that prices will hold up. They have held up until now. I hope and think we are beyond the worst of it now… I can see prices rolling, I can see transactions increasing on the basis of there will be more stock and more supply.”
On top of that, James believes that people are “more motivated than ever” to buy their own home after the events of 2020.
“One of the take homes that I took from the first Covid lockdown would have been not that people were deterred from moving or deterred for buying their own home, but they were more motivated than ever to buy their own home. I thought that was reassuring.”
These depraved people traffickers know full well that no EU nation will allow a ship carrying hundreds of migrants crash onto rocks drowning and injuring hundreds of people….set the course and let it go. These traffickers should be shot on sight….
They must be brought to justice but once you put them down other dogs will happily step forward to fill the void. People are desperate and will continue to venture on such dangerous journeys until the motives driving them to go are addressed.
Of course they should not be allowed to crash onto rocks, but at the same allowing every one of these ghost ships to disembark it’s passengers in the EU, just compounds the problem and only encourages the smugglers. They should be intercepted and towed back to wherever they came from.
Because they know that the EU is a soft touch and that we want to commit cultural suicide.
Because they are desperate for some sort of life that everyone needs. Look on it as foreign aid for the less well off.
Well they should not mess up there own country, we don’t want there wars on our streets like in Hamburg a few weeks ago between Sunnis and Kurds.
How is it foreign aid if they end up living here and attaching themselves to European social welfare? These people are illegal trespassers and need to be treated as such. Those behind the trafficking need to be ruthlessly hunted down and arrested.
The days of Europe allowing in everyone and anyone with a sob story needs to be put to bed. We are not a global soup kitchen.
Cultural suicide?
Sounds very brehvik to me…
Yes, cultural suicide. They don’t just give up their own culture, customs and religious beliefs once they enter Europe, you know? The question is, is their culture, customs and religous beliefs compatible with ours?
Careful now Jay, your thin veil of prejudice is slipping
I think the culture in third world countries is greatly inferior to that of ours here in Western Europe.
Sue me.
Yes – what with all our wars, theft of language and religious suppression – we’re just so much better here in good old Europe.
Stunning.
Europe has been at peace for over half a century, is pretty secular and theft of languages? You’re speaking English.
We have over 20 million people unemployed in Europe. A lot of them are non EU immigrants as is(Souce: http://www.euractiv.com/sections/social-europe-jobs/non-eu-citizens-twice-likely-be-unemployed-303834).
Where will these people work? Its not like we have a shortage of unskilled labour. Where will live? Will they need healthcare? Education? Language lessons? Welfare? Who shall pay for it all?
We are not running a global soup kitchen here.
Ok Jay ok….. I’ve had a look through the other comments you’ve made on here and it’s obvious that you are not anti-immigration. You’re quite simply anti everyone else.
There’s no talking to people who have decided that everything is wrong with any given issue.
He raises valid points though Tony, who will cater to these individuals and their needs in Europe and who will pay for it? Futhermore what of the countless millions that will follow them, where are they to go?
Care to deal with the points that I made? Stop bringing up Breivik and trying to smear me. You wouldn’t have the balls to do that to my face, so don’t do it online. Deal with the topic at hand.
Searching through my posts. You’re an odd character.
I agree there are serious issues with migration, but the simplicity of “send them back” as a solution? That just doesn’t work.
These days a lot of these boats are filled with Syria refugees. To even call them migrants is inaccurate.
What doesn’t sit well about it all is a whole mess of double standards. Tens of thousands of Syrian people dead, tons of illegal irish in America yet we still talk of send them back?
Immigration as a lot of challenges and I can’t say I know what the solutions are, but it’s not to create resentment between nations.
I made the point that e made a similar claim. I would make the same point to your face, nothing to do with balls.
I’ve no wish to get into flaming, I just don’t see any reasonable solution being offered.
If “send them back” is your only offering then you’ve as much to offer as me in terms of solutions. Immigration is a fact, and wasn’t an issue during the boom.
What country did you live in during the boom? It was a huge issue. As for solutions. How about this. An immigration policy that benefits the country and natives, not only the immigrants. An immigration policy that prioritises skilled migrants and entrepreneurs, but also keeps out the unskilled, uneducated or those that came for the mooch. All “language schools” closed. Those that undertook sham marriages for residency to be deported along with failed asylum seekers. Instead of dishing out citizenship like confetti at them.
How’s about that for starters?
I lived in a country that BENEFITTED from migrants during the boom (this one).
Very little of your suggestions address people who are fleeing places where there have been thousands of deaths. Personally, I think you’re right with closing loopholes; I don’t think anyone should have to pay for those who’s only intention is to take advantage.
Maybe you should have started with that rather than agreeing with “cultural suicide”.
I’ll send 3 of them over to your gaff later, Tony. Assume you’ll be cool with it.
A homeless man died only a few meters from our national parliament. The problem of homelessness is growing by the day.
The Knights of Columbanus, who dish out Christmas lunches every year to the needy, said the numbers coming to them has doubled in the last three years.
We have enough deprived people of our own to cope with than to import even more
We spent €635 million on foreign aid last year. How much of that could have been used to alleviate the homeless situation at home?
This was always bound to occur with foreign leaders and governments being toppled on Europe’s doorstep.
Its a tragic situation which will undoubtedly warrant multiple tactics and answers to remedy but a zero tolerance policy surely must be adopted similar to that which Australia has succesfully used to stem the flow and reduce drownings. When boats are being towed back to their port of origin these desperate souls and the others waiting will realize its a pointless endeavour, thus removing the carrot the traffickers are only too delighted to dangle in front of them. Otherwise where do you draw the line? At what point should Europe stop accepting responsibility and demand the Islamic countries of the region like Iran, Qatar, SA do their part?
The UN and EU should also be establishing safe areas with the essentials and the things they desiee (security, housing, schools, hospitals etc) in the countries where these migrants originate to lessen the temptation to travel.
The mega rich Gulf nations have barely taken any refugees from a conflict they’ve done so much to fuel and prolong. It’s a disgrace.
It looks good for TDs and MPS and euro minsters to take them in but how many are they taking into there posh areas they dump them on working and middle class areas and then forget about them and who pays for this joe public as always.
Couldnt agree more. Id love to see Aodhain O R take in the Roma and Asylum seekers he has such a fetish for and put them in housing right next to his own. Unfortunately that will never happen. The government like to take these people in to look good, and then they f*ck them out to the working class suburbs far away from their cosy D4 houses next to the HQ of their propaganda station RTE.
Meanwhile in “working class land”, the local Spar have employment contracts with agencies in India, the local Lidl have employment contracts with agencies in Eastern Europe. The school places are set to prioritise “diverse” children. The local housing is set to prioritise “diverse” families. (just look at the story a few weeks ago on the journal where Irish families were being evicted to essentially make way for immigrant families)
Vice did a good documentary about these boats landing in Lampedusa.
Did they mention Dapper Laughs in the documentary? They love to remind us about how much they hate him in nearly everything they publish lately.
The elite and bankers want us all to be drowned in debt (the way we are right now) and living in poverty. It’s working. Wake up sheep. Heck the Chinese believe this is the year of the sheep.
Year of the goat
Sink it at sea…
174,000 make it to Italy, a couple of thousand die. 95+% success rate, don’t expect people to stop coming for a while!! Money well spent really…
Man the torpedos!
Extreme right and ill informed comments here are the majority thus far. Worrying, especially for a nation who largely enjoy free movement.
have your say