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IN NOVEMBER 1942, following the British rebuff of the German army at El Alamein in Egypt, then-UK Prime Minister Winston Churchill proclaimed this victory as a major turning point in the Second World War.
His words are by now well-worn:
Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end.But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.
The United Kingdom leaves the European Union tonight, but Brexit does not end there. The conclusion of the withdrawal phase is only the end of the beginning.
This is because the UK and the EU enter a transition phase on 1 February, during which little should change in daily life even though the UK will no longer hold EU membership.
The EU and UK must now negotiate agreements on their future relationship, covering a range of areas from security to trade.
An ambitious timeline
The British government says it would like to conclude these negotiations by the end of this year. Many on the EU side think this is much too short a timeframe.
International trade deals, for instance, usually take years to conclude, and Brussels would, therefore, like to extend the transition period by two years (as provided for in the EU-UK withdrawal agreement).
London, however, is currently adamant it will not agree to any extension of the transition, during which it remains aligned to EU laws and pays into the EU budget.
Both sides must take a decision on extending the transition (or not) by the end of June 2020, so the Brexit clock is already ticking again.
The core issue in those negotiations will be the trade-off between open access for the UK to the EU single market, and ongoing UK alignment with EU rules.
Crudely put, the British government must choose between a narrow interpretation of “sovereignty” and the ongoing prosperity of the UK economy.
May not be so easy
“Taking back control” of laws may appeal in principle, but in practice, almost half of UK trade is with the EU.
Brussels has offered tariff and quota-free trade to the UK, on the condition that it remains aligned with EU rules, in areas like industrial support, labour protections, product standards etc., to ensure a level trade-playing field.
The difficulty of that trade-off might explain why mixed messages have been emerging from London recently.
On 17 January the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Sajid Javid, told the Financial Times that British business should forget staying close to the EU: “There will not be alignment, we will not be a rule-taker.”
On 22 January Javid told a business audience in Davos, at the World Economic Forum, that “We won’t diverge just for the sake of it”.
For some harder Brexiteers, aligning with EU rules is akin to a “Brexit in name only” and better to trade on World Trade Organisation (WTO) terms – which would result in more barriers to trade, such as tariffs and quotas, than a more open trade deal with the EU.
If the EU and UK are unable to agree on a way forward by the end of this year, those harder Brexiteers will have their WTO-only wish.
One way around this, if both sides are unable to agree on extending the transition period by mid-summer, might be to agree on a so-called skeleton trade deal by the end of the year, containing basic objectives, and perhaps continue more detailed sectoral negotiations thereafter.
This “bare-bones” free trade agreement (FTA) would cause less friction for EU-UK trade than the WTO-only route, but it would still mean more friction than today.
A mountain to climb
No matter what happens this year, on 1 January 2021 there will more barriers to trade between Ireland and the UK, the question is how many more.
Moreover, negotiations on future EU-UK relations could take years. Even after framework negotiations conclude, in some ways Brexit will never end.
Like other non-EU European countries Switzerland and Norway, the UK will be continuously negotiating with the EU in some form or another, on one subject or other.
The EU, including the Irish government, has consistently said it wishes to have as close a relationship with the UK as possible after Brexit. It has never offered, for example, a quota and tariff-free trade deal to any other country.
True, that offer is conditional, partly to ensure that the UK does not have easier access to the 450 million-strong single market than EU members have.
As the EU member with the closest relationship with the UK, a cooperative EU-UK relationship is much more desirable for Ireland than a competitive one.
A lot hinges, therefore, on the choices the British government will make this year.
“Brexit day”
While today, “Brexit day”, is only the end of the beginning, Winston Churchill would probably have been most impressed with the emergence of such a strong European Movement in the UK.
He, after all, was one of the founding fathers of what became the European Movement International (and its British branch) after World War II.
Today, 31 January 2020 will be a sad day for all pro-Europeans, but British friends should remember Churchill’s advice to the Congress of Europe in 1948:
There is only one duty and watchword: Persevere…Persevere along all the main lines that have been made clear and imprinted upon us by the bitter experiences through which we have passed. Persevere towards those objectives which are lighted for us by all the wisdom and inspiration of the past: Persevere.
Noelle O Connell is Executive Director of the European Movement Ireland.
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I am struggling to remember a single thing this government have managed properly.
Apart from their numerous pay rises.
@Andrew Martin: working day and night to legitimise the pay rise for working day and night to legitimise the pay rise.
@Andrew Martin: errrr how about Ireland ranked 20th highest in full vaccinations? And a working tracking app, how about us not going the way of the UK. We ate doing a lot of right things. Sorry to ruin your massive failed whinge
@Paul Furey: Your opinion is in the minority now unfortunately
… People want the country opened up.
@Paul Furey: ha, a tracking app that chewed through battery power and didnt work 100%, 20th while vaccinating a relatively small population and what way are the UK going? Fully open soon and more vaccinated than us?…… I get that you’re pro govt in the majority of your posts but in reality they’ve handled this crisis very poorly on many levels. Poor communication, leaks, conflicting info, not protecting the elderly in the first wave, afraid to lock down initially while watching everyone else lock down(26th in europe to do so), not engaging with heavily impacted sectors, nearly a year in level 5 and not managing the economy through the whole thing, rules that dont make any sense, taking ages to enforce masks for a airborne disease, not making use of rapid testing. And theres prob more.
@Paul Hedderman: the UK also had 50 deaths today, the highest number since April. Do you want that here too?
@Paul Furey: The only thing this inept government can agree on is on how to F..k things up.
@Sam Harms: Adjust for population. Thats like 3 – 4 deaths here…. And they had 6 yesterday. Thats why 7 day moving averages are better stats to look at to get a more accurate picture.
@Paul Hedderman: in the past 7 days they have had 213 deaths
@Sam Harms: thanks sam. Thats an average of 30. This time in their second wave when they had slightly higher daily cases they were getting around 600 deaths a day. Big difference….. Thankful the vaccienes are being rolled out
@Sam Harms: Thanks also for proving my point. 50 is way worse than the 7 day average of 30. 66.6% more infact.
@Paul Hedderman: so you don’t think an average of 30 people a day dying from covid is bad? How many people are you willing to sacrifice?
@Sam Harms: in the UK, no, thats very good in regard to fighting the virus. Thats like 2 people a day here…… Around 2 people die a day here during flu season. Never any restrictions for that and most people go on with their daily lives unaware. While any death is sad for the loved ones humans get sick and die all the time. We live beside viruses and illness every day of our lives, unrestricted pre covid. We’ll get to a stage with covid where we’ll live unrestricted, hopefully limiting deaths as much as possible, but there’ll probably still be deaths. People need to realise that.
Typical..right hand doesn’t know what the left hand is doing….
@Paul Somers: typical….moaner
@Paul Furey: is ‘whinge’ your favourite word, Paul?
@JedBartlett: He seems to have an extremely limited vocabulary:)
@Paul Furey: i never tire of seeing you whinge about other people whinging.
Do they ever talk to each other before telling the public stuff?
@Ballybough Marcus: no they haven’t the intelligence
Misunderstanding something they are brilliant at
@Keith O Hanlon: Yes exactly, this is what the email says:You can use your certificate to facilitate travel across EU member states during the Covid-19 pandemic and on the actual cert it mentions that this is not a travel document
@Keith O Hanlon: Yes exactly, this is what the email says:You can use your certificate to facilitate travel across EU member states during the Covid-19 pandemic and on the actual cert it mentions that this is not a travel document
@d: Well thats actually a contradiction in terms as they are saying you must have it, or a pcr / antigen test, to travel.
So if you do not receive the covid passport by email having been vaccinated in June, and are flying on the 19th of July…..and there is no call centre no to contact ? you seriously could not make this up….
@Linda Oreilly: Well wouldn’t that be a little bit silly, booking for the very day the restricitions are up? In Ireland. Where nothing runs on time.
@Tom Tom: And its that sort of attitude that contributes to these shortcomings. “Ah shur we’ll be grand” instead of saying get your overpaid asses into gear get it done properly.
@Linda Oreilly: Is it not going to be available on the Covid tracker app as well? You’d have that to show?
@Fiona Fitzgerald: yep I got my Covid Vaccine Passport via email late last night. No more PCR tests!!
All i can think of anytime one of these eejits make a statement is a chant you would here at a foitball match ” You don’t know what you’re doing”
@Derek Lyster: just waiting and hoping for a slight slip up by theGovernment and the Shinners and lefties are out of the woodwork…the rest of us agree that a good job is being done in extreme and unprecedented situations.
@john gavin: I’m neither a Shinner nor a Leftie as you so condescendingly put it. I would just like our vastly overpaid representatives to do their jobs properly. Not try to rush through legislation that has in no way been thought properly through so they can go on holidays. I for one don’t agree that they, have or are, doing a good job.
@Franny Ando: But that’s exactly what a Stalint-Trotskist-Marxist-Lefty-Commie would say!
Seriously though, it self expires in 3 months and they can’t do it the right way anyway because it’s constitutionally *very* sketchy and likely wouldn’t pass muster. They are lucky they have Michael D to sign it tbh. I doubt some of our previous presidents would.
So, yeah, it’s rubbish, but at least it will put itself in the bin in October so I don’t see the need to stress it.
@John Considine: But remember they are also saying it can be extended beyond Oct. So let’s hope it is put in the bin:)
Michael Martin looking a bit unwell these days
Ahh the good old “GANFYD” approach: “Get A Note From Your Doctor”.
Doctor’s notes waste huge amounts of time and aren’t as valuable as most folk believe. Waste of your own money and your doctor’s time in many cases.
We need to move away from this business of medicalising everything. Why would you need a doctor’s note to eat out, go on holiday etc? Surely that’s the Dept of Health’s decision.
Tried to ring the number today as my cert has the wrong name on it. Rang once then disconnected. This happened 10 times. Looks like they’re getting paid not to answer the phone.
The Mrs. Received her cert today but is disappointed that it can’t be laminated due to the glare from the paper which prevents the digital machine from reading the QR code.
So what’s the phone number then ?
I got mine through my gp but at a hse vaccination centre. God only knows if or how I’ll get one. I better call the helpline. Oh no wait, its not set up yet.
Got phizer in a country outside the EU. I wonder will they accept my covid vaccination certificate!
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