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LAST UPDATE | 15 Nov 2022
PUTIN’S WITHDRAWAL FROM Kherson is hugely significant on a number of levels for the war in Ukraine. On a strategic level, the liberation of the port city marks a turning point in the war.
Kherson is the gateway to the annexed Crimean peninsula. It was one of the first cities to be occupied by Russian forces at the outset of the invasion in February. For Putin and the Kremlin, Kherson was a key target for two reasons. Russian forces there were able to link up with other units that had destroyed Mariupol to create a land corridor from Russia to the Crimean Peninsula – a key objective for Putin and his generals.
Secondly, Kherson represented a key foothold or staging point from which to launch further Russian advances towards Odessa and Moldova. Putin has had eight months to consolidate his hold on Kherson and prepare significant defensive positions and reinforce – by defence in depth – his grip of the land corridor from Crimea via Mariupol to the Russian border.
‘Unambiguous defeat’
Ukraine’s victory in Kherson represents a complete reversal of this strategic leverage and is an unambiguous defeat for Putin and his recently appointed Chief of Operations, General Sergei ‘Armageddon’ Surovikin.
On the level of the information war, the liberation of Kherson is a humiliation for Putin. Yesterday, TV footage of President Zelenskyy in Kherson’s central square went viral – a global propaganda coup for Ukraine. The footage also revealed the confidence – and competence – of Ukraine’s chief of staff, General Valery Zaluzhny in his capacity to guarantee Zelenskyy’s security in the recently liberated city.
On a tactical level, the ousting of Russian troops – from a heavily defended, and well-supplied city – demonstrates that the Ukrainian military can successfully mount and maintain a sustained, attritional offensive. Unlike the lightning advances made by Ukrainian troops in September in the Kharkiv area – greatly assisted by the element of deception, concealment and surprise – the advance on Kherson was a full frontal assault executed in full view of the Kremlin.
Putin and his generals – and the world – now know, that the Ukrainian military is capable of re-taking other strategic cities. Tactically, the offensive on Kherson has demonstrated that Ukrainian artillery – assisted by the US-supplied HIMARS systems – is capable of grinding down, eroding and defeating their Russian counterparts in the field. In short, Ukraine has prevailed in the concentration of firepower, armour and manoeuvre of troops to achieve a decisive victory over dug-in Russian forces.
Russia’s mistakes
On a psychological level, the Russians have suffered a moral defeat. They can offer no meaningful conventional military response on the battlefield to Ukraine’s offensive operations. Russia’s generals will fear a repeat of Ukraine’s dogged victory in other areas, in other towns and cities. Most of all, Putin and his generals will fear the prospect of Ukrainian forces re-taking all of the Kherson Oblast. For if they do, Crimea will be cut off.
On a psychological level, for Ukrainian forces, the liberation of Kherson will accelerate the motivation to fight. Coupled with this motivation and boost to morale, is the knowledge that recently mobilised Russian forces will begin to arrive in Ukraine in the coming months. Putin’s cack-handed partial mobilisation – along with the logistics and training challenges associated with it – means that Ukraine has been handed a very specific timeline for the maximum exploitation of their advance in Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk. This timeline aligns with the onset of Winter and the months of December, January and February when ground combat will inevitably slow down.
In a dynamic emblematic of Putin’s overall handling of the war in Ukraine, the Kremlin and Russia’s general staff have managed their deployment, logistics and re-supply in Ukraine in a clumsy, fragmented manner with no attempt at deception, surprise or operational finesse.
From the outset, Putin split his forces and each Russian axis of advance has suffered from a lack of competent air superiority or combined arms manoeuvre. As a consequence, Russia’s losses have been extremely high – with tens of thousands of Russian troops killed and injured – along with thousands of tanks and armoured fighting vehicles destroyed and captured.
Quite simply put, Russian mechanised infantry have failed to protect their armour from Ukrainian ambush and assault. Russian artillery has failed to halt Ukrainian advances and has been repeatedly targeted by drone strikes, long range counter battery fire and HIMARS attacks mounted by Ukrainian forces. In every aspect of the field army – artillery, armour and infantry operations – the Russians have been out-classed and out-manoeuvred by Ukraine.
‘The will to fight’
Ukrainian losses have no doubt been high and their victories have been paid for in terms of thousands of battlefield deaths and injuries. However, the momentum of the war is clearly with Ukraine’s military which has shown itself capable of dynamic, kinetic operations designed to dislodge Russian forces. The remainder of the war will now depend on how which side retains the will to fight, and the capacity to supply the largest quantities of troops and materiel to key points on the battlefield.
In this context, Putin’s forces are making a major effort to take the town of Bakhmut, north of Donetsk. This offensive is designed to try and halt Ukraine’s advances in Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts and to try and stop them linking up with their axis of advance deeper into Kherson.
For Zelenskyy and his General Staff, they will use the remaining window of opportunity to re-take as much of Kherson Oblast as possible and to attempt to cut off the Crimean Peninsula from Putin’s land corridor. For the moment, Ukraine has the initiative in this regard.
Putin’s forces have lost the initiative in Ukraine and are now fighting a series of defensive actions against a highly motivated and highly agile adversary. In my view, Putin has very few conventional military options to change the facts on the ground in Ukraine.
For Ukraine to ‘win’ this war, they simply need to deny Putin a clear victory. With the liberation of Kherson, they have achieved this and have inflicted a serious strategic, moral and psychological defeat on Russia.
For Russia to ‘win’ this war, they need an unambiguous victory in all four Oblasts recently declared part of Russia itself in Putin’s referenda. Any objective analysis of the situation renders such a prospect unlikely – unless Russia mobilises fully and formally declares war on Ukraine. Or unless Putin resorts to non-conventional warfare and weapons of mass destruction to halt Ukraine’s counter-offensives.
A turning point has been reached this week in Ukraine – but to fully exploit this, Zelenskyy and his forces will have to continue a brutal and grinding offensive well into 2023. It will become a contest of who can endure the most.
Dr Tom Clonan is an independent Senator and former Captain in the Irish armed forces. He is a security analyst and academic, lecturing in the School of Media in DIT. You can follow him on Twitter.
I see he wrote about how Russia can ‘win’ this war. How about Ukraine? What does victory for Ukraine look like, is it trying to take back its pre ’14 territory in a long drawn out war or is it turning Ukraine into a modern European prosperous democracy. Perhaps both but aiming for the former makes the latter harder, perhaps even impossible given the crimeas insanely pro Russian population.
@Sean Casey: theres also the issue of the longer the war goes on the less likely refugees are every to return. This will leave a big demographic hole in the population where there is a massive excess of young men. A dangerous prospect (For any country) look at America. TBH No one can blame any young Ukrainian who doesnt want to return. I certainly wouldnt force them back. But it’s an issue no one is talking about
@Sean Casey: There is another less palatable possibility, let’s imagine that Ukraine with US support ejects the Russian forces, including from Crimea and the Russians decide to cut their losses, don’t escalate to the nuclear option and consider it just another Afghanistan like defeat.
Then the world is left with Ukrainian forces that are armed to the teeth, full of nationalistic pride, with a bit more extreme rightwing sentiment than anyone is actually comfortable with internationally, when they aren’t directly in conflict with Russia.
Then the Ukrainians decide to not only reinforce their borders, they also push outwards to create buffer zones into Belarus and Moldova for national security, along with a brutal nationwide purge against anyone that they consider anti Ukrainian..
@David Van-Standen: compete made up BS
@Sean Casey: “theres also the issue of the longer the war goes on the less likely refugees are every to return. ”
And if Russia Wins?
@David Van-Standen:
Are you a fool or a troll? Ukraine will not attack Belarus, Moldova or Georgia for that matter. Though, they will soon also be liberated from the grip of the Muscovites. The only buffer zone will be in Russia proper.
Ukraine will recover their lands to the 1991 borders. A strong Ukrainian military will be necessary to keep the Russian hoards at bay. They don’t have the luxury of being in NATO or even the EU.
Ukraine is already by experience, one of the most powerful armies in Europe. I feel pride in Ukrainian Nationalism and I’m Irish. Slave Ukraini.
@David Jordan: Don’t worry Dave, The russians are screwed. Would you not be homesick after a year or so in a strange foreign country? We’re not that great.
@Daniel O’Neill: There is no need to resort to abusive language, I have no vested interest in this conflict and its really unfortunate that it ever escalated to war due to the Russian invasion causing suffering for the people of Ukraine, but there are historic parallels.
Everywhere the US have propped up and armed a faction or regime, it has always played out the same way, their guy in the region, furthering US interests in the region is armed to the teeth to see off all opposing forces, then a number of years later, their guy no longer wants to take their instructions, flexes their power and becomes a threat or the regime changes and still has all the hardware.
This has now played out in Iran, Afghanistan and Iraq, is the possibility of it also happening in Ukraine such a stretch?
@David Van-Standen:
I’ve a vested interest in not seeing videos of dead Ukrainian kids on Twitter.
You’ve been listening to too much tankie-vatnick BS. You sound like that pair of twits; Daly and Wallace.
Hate the US all you like. Ukraine is being propped up by the E.U. especially GB, Poland, the Baltic’s and Romania, and also Canada, Australia, South Korea, Japan, Israel (quietly) and yes, of course the US.
Afghanistan and Iraq are irrelevant. Iranians are working out their own issues and I think they will succeed. Ukraine is totally different, they are being supported by allies not being propped up.
@Bri Lyons: That’s the entire point of imagining different possible outcomes of any current conflict situation, you take the available known variables, historic prejudices, potential outcomes and flesh those out with human nature, to arrive at a made up scenario.
But don’t be too upset, the much more likely outcome is escalation to a nuclear war, if Russia decides that it is actually not in a proxy war, but in direct war with NATO and the USA and when facing defeat, it decides to launch its nuclear arsenal, meaning about four hours after world war three starts, we will all be dead or dying along with everything else on earth.
@Daniel O’Neill: Lol! Clearly you have a superior knowledge of history and geopolitical affairs that spans the current news cycle.
Afghanistan and Iraq are irrelevant and the Iranian are working out their own issues! Stop please it’s embarrassing.
@Bri Lyons: isn’t he hilarious. What a hatstand comment. Lol
@David Van-Standen:
Irrelevant to the subject of the article.
‘Superior knowledge…’ compared to you perhaps.
@Sean Casey: because few will be as pessimistic or seeming pro-Russian as you.
It’s true that masses of Europeans did not return home post WWII and I went to school with Latvians,Poles,Czechs and in the 50s Hungarians. But war torn Europe recovered without its emigrés.
Where there’s a will………
@David Van-Standen: what a load of predictable nonsense from you. @Sean Ukraine want to be members of the EU and they know that to do that they’ll need to modernise their democracy. I think what this war has shown us is that their people are not very different from us. As for the war, he has said he wants to return Ukraine to its pre 2014 borders. With all due respect to the ethnic Russians living there they should be no more allowed to call parts of Ukraine Russia as Polish people living here should want or be allowed to have Polish rule in parts of Ireland.
@David Van-Standen: Ukraine wants to be part of the EU and NATO and the western world – all of that expansionist stuff just won’t happen. As for extreme right wing sentiment, one doesn’t need to go to Ukraine to find that and that element has been grossly exaggerated by Russian propogandists. Rather than be paranoid about any country conducting genocide, it’s probably better to focus on the ones conducting genocide right now, such as Russia.
@David Van-Standen: very unlikely to happen thay way as Ukraine goal is to join EU. They will have to demonstrate certain qualities and deliver certain aspects expected over a period of time for that to happen. I’m not sure the EU wants another Hungary on board.
@Michael Daly: This situation is not a case of either or, of course the Russians have played up the Nazi claims to justify their illegal invasion, but that Russian propaganda doesn’t negate the fact that there are a lot of extremely right-wing people in Ukraine, including in postions of power.
It’s an ethnic and political dispute that predates Ukraine as a nation, not a football match that the those of us outside Ukraine have to pick a side to cheer for a support without question, neither do we have to be selectively blind to facts that are plain to be seen.
And most important of all a continuing conflict is only going to result in more death, destruction and suffering for the Ukrainian people, even if they eventually drive the Russians out of Ukraine.
Instead of muppets online cheering for their chosen team in a fantasy conflict in which they risk nothing, people should be calling for diplomatic engagement to find a peaceful resolution in which the Ukrainians can rebuild and get on with their lives.
As to Ukraine wanting to join the EU or join NATO, unless the rules are bent beyond recognition, Ukraine won’t meet the requirements to join the EU for some time, if they join without meeting them then the existing right-wing elements in Ukraine join too.
It’s not such a leap of logic, if people just look at the other Eastern European countries that have previously joined are also much more right-wing, are also dismissive of many EU principles, not least women’s rights, immigration, LGBT rights and freedom of movement into their countries, Ukraine is the same, if not worse on all these issues.
As to them joining NATO, Ukraine joining NATO would be taken by Russia as a declaration of war with Russia, closely followed by nuclear escalation to all four hours of world war three.
Accepting that Russian was totally wrong to illegally invade Ukraine, doesn’t suspend or negate all of the other issues with Ukraine, they are being glossed over because it currently suits the USA to do so, that’s geopolitics in action.
Ukraine wont be joining the EU because itll mean a massive power shift in Europe to the East and France and Germany wont really accept that. as for Ukraine joining NATO i could see Ukraine bypassing that by having a strong defensive alliance with Poland and possibly Moldova and Romania
@David Van-Standen: You are right you have no interest at all in this war, because if you did, you would know that it is not only the US that are providing military equipment to Ukraine..
@David Van-Standen: and if my aunt had donegals she’d be me uncle
As happens in all wars… The Russians invade Kerson and enthnic Ukrainians flee. Russia does bad things to the Ethnic Ukrainians. The Russians flee Kerson and the Ukrainians take the city. The ethnic Russians flee and any that stay behind Ukraine will do bad things to them… This has happened in every war since the dawn of time. There is no winner in all this as millions of people are suffering and will suffer. During war murder isn’t a big deal. Innocent people are all caught up in this mess… This part of Ukraine will never be the same again. Before the war 17% of the people were ethnic Russian, 7 million people. I can’t imagine its safe to speak Russian in Ukraine any more or Ukrainian in the Russian held areas.
If you think I’m talking nonsense watch this movie, its called “Heaven & Earth”. See the madness that happens when you wake up one day and tanks are rolling through your village. What would you do? Who side would you be on? People will do desperate things in a war to survive….
@Diarmuid O’Braonáin:
It’s ‘Kherson’ btw. Ethnic Ukrainians did not flee, it was a cover for the Russians to evacuate their troops in civilian clothing, which was one of their few successes this war.
Kherson will never be the same again but it will be free and it will prosper.
Zelensky himself speaks Russian as his first language, more than half of the Azov Regiment spoke Russian as their first language and they were the most nationalistic Ukrainian people imaginable.
Ukrainians don’t care if you speak Russian, though there is now a popular movement to practice Ukrainian instead where possible. I’ve watched many videos on Twitter where Ukrainian forces are slaughtering Russian forces, while speaking and cursing them in Russian.
@Daniel O’Neill: oh you watched videos on Twitter.
No disputing that then…
@Fergal McDonagh: You sound like a guy who relies on finger paintings.
@Daniel O’Neill: Dear Daniel
A wise man once said to me arguing on the internet is for f’ing losers. Take heed
@Daniel O’Neill: sorry Daniel but you don’t know unless your on the ground there. I seriously doubt you’re on the ground there. When you put guns into soldiers hand people start to dissappear. What do you think Ukraine is going to do with the 7 million ethnic Russians in their country? What happens in any conflict? What happened in Northern Ireland? Were the Unionists suspicious of the nationalis? Did Unionists murder nationalis? Did nationalis murder Unionists? Replace nationalis with Ukrainian and Unionist with Russian. Same thing will happen. Its a war.
@Diarmuid O’Braonáin: you know what the largest ethnic russian city in ukraine is? Kharkiv. the population of which has spent the war being shelled and bombed and hasnt taken a step back. never any doubt where the populations loyalty was. this isnt an ethnic conflict as much as people like to paint it as such. most of the russian troops arent ethnic russians theyre from the ethnic minorities in russia
@Rian Lynch: your shocking nieve, why did the Donbass Republic separate from Ukraine in the first place? On what grounds did they separate? The battle lines are located in places where you have both Ukrainians and ethnic Russians. We will only find the graves when the whole sorry mess is over and there will be graves from both sides because the more weapons that are sent the more people are gonna die and the more bitter it becomes. Just because its in Europe doesn’t mean that war here is any different….
@Diarmuid O’Braonáin: they seperated because russia sponsored a seperatist movement and when that movement faltered in the face of the ukranian army russia sent in their own army to stabalise it. dont try make out that the seperstist regions were some ethnic russian mecca. if they were there would have be a movement of ethnic russians into the regions when in reality the opposite happend and the place was filled with head bangers from russia
@Rian Lynch: you really believe that, have you been there? I have. This whole conflict is divided alone ethnic lines and has been since 2014. After 2014 the Ukrainian govt banned all things Russian. Ie teaching Russian in schools. Russian speaking tv channels and a Ethnic Russian political party. Now remember there are 7 million ethnic Russians in a country of 41 million people and you believe the war isn’t divided on ethnic grounds.
In 1969 Dev was taoiseach in the Republic. The protestants attacked nationalists in Northern Ireland at the start of the civil rights marches. Refugees fled over the border into Donegal. Documents released after show that Dev was going to send the Irish army into the North to protect ethnic Nationalists. Ukraine is more like the North than wed like to imagine
Ukraine is more like Northern Ireland because of the ethnic division.
@Diarmuid O’Braonáin: funnily enough i thought the banning of russian for the very short time it lasted was a reaction to the russian invasion in 2014
@Diarmuid O’Braonáin: Jack Lynch was taoiseach in 1969.
@Rian Lynch: I’m not disputing that fact. But what are the 7 million Ethnic Russians going to do when the live in a country that no longer wants them. Extremists have been in power in Kiev since 2014. Remember Ian Paisley saying Northern Ireland was a protestant state for a protestant people. After 2014 the govt in Kiev said the same thing. Ukraine is a Ukrainian Country for ethnic Ukrainians. The elephant in the room is the fact there are 7 million people(17%) who don’t identify as Ukrainian, don’t speak Ukrainian and don’t want to be Ukrainian. What do they do? Where do they go?
Like Northern Ireland a huge part of the population are not wanted in there own country. Identical to Northern Ireland. Now if you view is that they should leave their homes and go to Russia then your part of the problem. Force 7 million people from their homes is a crime against humanity and considered ethnic cleansing.
The only way forward for a peaceful and successful country is remove the extremists and create a good Friday agreement type deal. Northern Ireland was so successful and a shining example of how to bring communities together in peace. When the govt in Kiev creates anti Russian laws… there will never be peace same as in NI. All former USSR countries have big ethnic Russian populations… this is not just a Ukrainian problem.
@Diarmuid O’Braonáin: who says they dint identify as Ukranian? theyve suffered with their neighbours in this invasion. russian has bombed ethnic russians with the same impunity as theyve bombed all other civilians. i think youll find shared suffering will mould all those who live in ukraine into a solid block that will identify as ukraninan regardless of their eithnicity.
@Philip Kennedy: your right… it was Jack Lynch.. it was documents released years after… I think there was a TV show on it as well.
@Rian Lynch: Yon make it out as everything is black and white. The western narrative that war is simply the poor Ukrainian people were invaded by the Russians who are evil…. That all the people in Ukraine stand as one against the invader. Are your that nieve. Reminds me of the time that Germany invaded plucky innocent Belgium in 1914. The west as one came to Belgiums aid. Ignoring the fact that Belgium was killing millions of Congolese in Africa one of the worst atrocities the world has ever seen. Belgian rubber plantation were extremely profitable…
But it isn’t and for the simple reason that if they all felt Ukrainian then there would never have been the Maidan riots in 2014. Those involved in that were extreme Ukrainian nationalists. If they felt Ukrainian then there would have been no trouble in the Donbass regions. If they felt Ukrainian why would the govt ban the Russian language from schools and TV stations. Why would the govt ban the Ukrainian pro ethnic Russian party from Eastern Ukraine. Why would every village have two separate graveyards, one for Ukrainians and one for Russians.
The glaring reality is that if Ukraine is to win the war and have peace over the entire country then they will have to ethnically cleanse the region of ethnic Russians…
@Diarmuid O’Braonáin: You make it sound like the Donbas has been some pro Russian area for centuries with a push for independence in 2014. Just totally ignoring the actual history of the region … Let’s just forgot about the Holodomor and 5 million deaths and who caused it. Let’s also ignore the 1991 results from the region in the vote for independence, sure it was only 84% in favour. Using 8 years of history while ignoring the centuries before that is misleading, or maybe it just suits your story. Very strange to mention ethnic cleansing and the Donbas and not drag Russia into the equation, very strange.
@Pablo: Exactly my point. Not everything is black and white. If you look in the media they give the view that all the people in Ukraine stand as one against the invader. Its not true. Ukraine has a very complex history with Russia and like Ireland and Britain both countries have a long complex history together. Good and bad. For example the western part of Ukraine was Polish until 1946 when the USSR took part of Germany and made it Polish. Millions of people were uprooted during this time. Ukraine and Russia were equal partners in the USSR. Kiev was once the capital of Russia. Thats part of history. Its complex and not straightforward. This war is the same….
The only way out of this mess is a peace deal like the good Friday agreement. No side can win this war. Everyone knows it. The longer it goes on the harder it will be. Pouring more and more weapons in is not doing anyone any good with all the extremists running the show. Its not gonna end anytime soon.
@Pablo: I am sorry but your take is completely wrong. “Donbass has been some pro-Russian area”. You do realise “Ukraine” literally means borderland? This is the border of the Russian Empire. The people living there were subjects of the Tzar – as was Poland. What matters is they have their independent countries now, but the historical argument works against you.
If Ukraine can manage to push Russia back to a situation close to before February 24, then I’d imagine the pressure to negotiate a settlement would be considerable. And with that I mean that the Russians are in control of Crimea and most of the Donbas, but Ukraine has recaptured the land bridge inbetween.
This could easily take another year, but to retake the rest might take several years. The question is whether in the west, and particularly in the US, the political will survives for that long to continue to support the country in the face of continuing inflation.
If we’re indeed in that situation in about a year, i.e. with Russia in control of only Crimea and the Donbas, then it’ll be interesting to watch Putin face a presidential election early the following year – also since if he’d be replaced, there’s no guarantee it’s going to be anyone better.
But I’m under no illusion that either a Ukrainian victory or a peace deal means things will return to normal, since I wouldn’t be surprised if just as we think it will, China attacks Taiwan.
@Mick Tobin: Ukraine won’t stop at the 24/02/22 lines of conflict. They will go for their rightful 1991 borders. They’ve been sitting just outside the Donetsk capital, (also Donetsk) for months now. The reason they don’t attack is because they won’t harm their populations living under occupation. The same thing just happened in Kherson. They will destroy the Russian military logistics and wait.
There will be no negotiated settlement until Crimea and The Donbas are fully liberated. The only negotiation will be how Ukraine recovers it’s kidnapped civilians and POWs and how many Billions the Russians must pay.
There are no real elections in Russia btw, the gangster in control decides.
And China is a bigger paper-tiger than Russia and they know it.
@Daniel O’Neill: I agree they won’t stop out of choice, but peace deals if they’re made tend to result from prolonged battleground stalemates – when neither side feels there’s realistically much to gain, and I can imagine that situation occuring in case things do get to (more or less) the 24/02/22 lines of conflict.
As for those elections, obviously they’re anything but genuine, but they could provide an opportunity for someone else with sufficient support to gently nudge Putin towards retirement.
@Mick Tobin:
There is no stalemate, The Ukrainians will not be ‘frozen’ this winter, they will use it to their advantage and continue the offensive. There is no peace possible with the Russians, even if they withdraw tomorrow to 24/02/22 lines. The Russians must be clearly beaten militarily, nothing else will solve this.
Funny enough, ‘the West’ fears Putin’s replcement far more than they fear Putin. If this goes bad, a Prigozhin or similar takes power after Putin has a tall building window accident.
@Mick Tobin: hey Mick. Go to bed. You’ve got primary school in the morning.
@Daniel O’Neill: Fair points Daniel, but you’re looking into the future and saying what will happen: no stalemate, and I’m simply saying that it could happen. Neither of us have a crystal ball.
Winter is an opportunity for both sides to regroup, and neither of us can be certain how things are going to play out. It’s not impossible that the Russian military learns from its mistakes and manages to put up more of a fight later on. But I agree that the momentum appears to be with Ukraine, however, appearances can be deceptive.
And Prigozhin, who seems to have political ambitions, would obviously be an even bigger disaster, and someone who might go as far as full mobilisation, although whether even that would help is far from certain – like I said, neither of us have a crystal ball.
@Mick Tobin: I think we’re in agreement, Fergal McPlonker has convinced me that we’re probably on the same side! :)
I suppose that it’s my hope that Ukraine will continue to receive much needed support. All it would take is 200 Leopard 2s, 200 Abraham IFVs and 200 ATACMS. They probably won’t get it all but it would save Ukrainian lives and end the war within 3 months easy. Otherwise, I think Ukraine can still do it with GMLRS etc.
Ukraine gaurds the gates of Europe. They pay with blood, sweat and tears. We pay with $€£, lucky us.
@Daniel O’Neill: Ha! We’re on the same side indeed; my only ‘vice’ being that I sometimes express a degree of ‘realism’, which has become controversial since in its extreme form it boils down to calling for arms supplies to end with the consequence of Ukraine ceding territory to Russia (presumably a lot).
I do not want this to happen because in one form or another it boils down to allowing the law of the jungle back in instead of the rule of law – to which you effectively refer in your last sentence about Ukraine guarding Europe.
However, with this ‘realism’, I’m only refering to a situation I consider possible due to the rules (and realities) of war, but not desirable. Though to even view it as a possible outcome is sometimes mistaken for promoting that outcome (which led someone to call me a ‘vatnik’ on one occasion). So I hope the support and momentum remains – but I obviously have no say in the matter.
Disagree. In war its about fighting army’s not taking territory. It was a smart move by the Russian army to withdraw.
@Celtic Eagle: funny that Celtic, Russia declared Kherson an actual piece of russia three weeks ago and now they’ve abandoned it, but yeah its not about territory!
The Irish Defence forces should be sending experienced military representatives to learn from the modern tactics employed by the Ukrainians. We have a relatively tiny military that could sure use any advantage we can take. In a world where war in Europe is back on the table, not investing in defense is simply incompetent and neglects our people.
Zed’s Dead…
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