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BOTH WASHINGTON AND LONDON have now expressed the view that Russian Metrojet Flight 9268 was ‘more than likely’ downed by an explosive device placed on board the aircraft.
Both US and British government agencies are citing intelligence sources that speak of an inside job or terrorist ‘assist’ at Sharm el-Sheik Airport. They claim that Islamic State affiliates on the Sinai Peninsula, either Ansar Bayt al Maqdis or Province of Sinai may have persuaded an employee at Sharm el Sheik to place an explosive device on board the ill-fated flight which was carrying 224 passengers and crew to St Petersburg.
In the aftermath of the incident, the Egyptian authorities have sacked key figures at the airport including its head of security. The Irish Government has followed the example of UK Foreign Secretary by advising Irish air operators not to fly to or from Sharm el-Sheik for the foreseeable future.
The Russians have prior bitter experience of attacks on their passenger aircraft. In August 2004, two commuter flights operating from Domodedovo International Airport, Moscow were destroyed by female Chechen suicide bombers.
The women, Satsita Dzhebirkhanova and Amanta Nagayev boarded the passenger flights – one to Sochi and the other to Volgograd – with plastic explosives concealed on their persons. Like drug mules, the women are believed to have concealed the high explosives internally, in body cavities.
Both aircraft were destroyed at high altitude during the cruising phase of flight. Volga AviaExpress Flight 1353 disappeared from radar screens without warning 26 minutes after take-off and all 43 passengers and crew on board were killed. Siberia Airlines Flight 1047 disappeared shortly after and all 46 on board were killed in an explosion at high altitude.
During the investigation of the crashes, Russian authorities found explosives residue and traces of high explosive RDX on debris from both planes.
Suspicions surrounding Metrojet Airbus A321
Suspicions were aroused when the Russian Metrojet Airbus A321 disappeared from radar screens 23 minutes after take-off on Saturday after it approached its cruising altitude. The timing of its disappearance is significant for a number of reasons.
Most air crashes occur during the take-off and landing phase of flight. The Airbus A321 is a highly reliable aircraft with an excellent safety record. Accidents involving Airbus aircraft during the cruising phase are rare and normally involve a constellation of negative factors such as bad weather, technical faults and cockpit incidents.
None of these are reported to have occurred on Saturday. No mayday warnings were issued by the cabin crew and no automatically generated fault indicators were sent either. The plane appeared to simply fall from the sky after a fast moving – instantaneous – catastrophic event.
Investigators and intelligence sources will also compare the duration of the doomed flight to that of Pan Am 103 – which was destroyed by an explosive device placed in the luggage hold – over the Scottish village of Lockerbie in December 1988.
Sequence of events similar to Lockerbie incident
Two hundred and seventy passengers and crew – mostly US citizens – were killed in that incident including 11 people on the ground. The sequence of events and the distribution of debris – including range and lateral spread of plane fragments and bodies – in the case of Metrojet Flight 9268 are broadly similar to that of the Lockerbie incident.
The timing, sequence of events and sudden loss of structural integrity also mirror the destruction of Russian Volga AviaExpress Flight 1353 in 2004.
For now, the crash investigators will be mapping and tracking debris from the wreckage in order to establish the central focus of the plane’s disintegration. They will be looking for evidence of external impact or internal detonation along with evidence of stress fractures or tell-tale signs of weaknesses in the mainframe of the aircraft.
They will pay particular attention to any of the signature signs of a high explosive device including metal curled outwards or blast and burn patterns along with the shrapnel effects consistent such an improvised device.
Post mortem examinations of victims of the crash – particularly, where possible, of passengers located close to the centre of gravity of the detonation would reveal the high temperature burn effects and pulping of internal organs along with the shattering of bones that are consistent with the impact of high explosives on soft tissue.
Poor record of disclosure
It is not clear how communicative Egyptian and Russian investigators will be with regard to such findings. They Egyptians have a poor record in disclosing the findings of previous air incidents.
In October 1999 an Egyptian Boeing 767 passenger jet – EgyptAir Flight 990 – was deliberately crashed into the Atlantic Ocean just south of Nantucket en route from New York to Cairo International Airport.
All 217 passengers and crew on board were killed in that incident by the pilot in an act of suicide similar to that perpetrated by GermanWings Flight 9525 first officer, Andreas Lubitz in March of this year.
In the subsequent US examination of the incident involving EgyptAir, the Egyptian authorities were uncooperative and reluctant to release the findings of the air accident investigation report. With so much at stake for Egypt’s international prestige, stability and tourism revenues, it will be interesting to see how transparent and timely the current investigation will be.
The Russian authorities will certainly be anxious to find out precisely what happened to its citizens over the Sinai Peninsula. Particularly so given President Putin’s recent offensive against Islamic State in Syria. If Islamic State’s claims prove to be correct – in regard to destroying the Russian aircraft – it will be the most significant attack on civil aviation by militant Islamists since 9/11.
Whatever the outcome of the investigation into the loss of Metrojet Flight 9268 – tensions will be running high among militant groups and state actors with access to North African and Middle Eastern air space and facilities.
This set of factors – including the fate of Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17, destroyed by a Russian BUK missile over Ukraine – ought to inform the operations of all major airlines and charter flights in the region. Until the facts are clarified – if they ever are – caution should be the order of the day.
Dr Tom Clonan is a former Captain in the Irish armed forces. He is a security analyst and academic, lecturing in the School of Media in DIT. He is also an Independent candidate for Senate-TCD Panel. You can follow him on Twitter here.
Funny how Taoiseach Kenny can address the Germans when he is incapable of addressing the Irish people – presumably some unelected out it touch civil servant has been busy writing again.
Surely it’s an honour for our country that the Taoiseach is invited to speak to Members of the major Bavarian Party in his Presidency role. Surely it provides an opportunity for the Taoiseach to influence this important grouping in respect of Ireland’s needs in the near future. Surely most of the readers would see the strategic value of this visit for all of us.
Oh dear, I forgot that the purpose of these contributions is to rid ones body of the overnight build up of vile and venom and to vent it on the head of some Minister or Taoiseach that just happens to be first on the news of the day!
Reason and logic don’t enter the picture.
Not half as bad as the morons that blindly follow the detached cretins called a government.
It’s not that, Mike. A good cohort of people on here blame everything from the weather to the fact that they haven’t had a ride since October on the government.
Every article, even on topics as unrelated as the mars rover or North Korea has posters who will launch in a generic, often barely literate unburdening of pent-up excreta on Irish TDs, ministers and the political system in general.
Newsflash – TDs are at best peripheral to your lives. Put the effort into something creative.
Michael, your vitriolic comment hardly deserves a response – the thumbs speak for themselves. Many of our people come from strong Fine Gael backgrounds and of course abhor the destruction of the Fianna Fáil and PD Government but taken in the round this Fine Gael government (Labour doesn’t exist) is the worst government in living memory- lies, broken promises, grossly incompetent and totally lacking in leadership, all at a time when Ireland needs to stand up and be counted. We will gladly share our files with you.
Michal J., lemme guess – it’s “vile (sic) and venom” when criticism is directed towards the Blueshirts, but perfectly acceptable and reasonable when criticism is directed towards Sinners, “lefties”, etc? Because you certainly pull your weight in the latter category.
On the topic at hand, I’m guessing Enda is going to wax lyrical about the supposed “Celtic comeback”, “green shoots” and sure isn’t austerity grand altogether. I mean, it’s not like there’s been any functional economic recovery since 2010, with no reduction in unemployment, but sure we’re grand with that, thanks Angela.
Like the Quisling worm that he is.
His creative writers will no doubt astound and entertain the gathering with new award winning catchphrases.
Don’t get me wrong, this is what Mr Kenny does and he does it well and yes Michael J it is an honor for our illustrious leader, but for me at least it’s perhaps a little embarrassing to have an impotent vacuous soundbite masquerade as Irelands answer to a political leader.
Michael J. TBH the normal person in Ireland does believe all of what you have said… Don’t let opinion on j.ie affect you….Its not a very accurate yardstick…Just look at any polls they do!!! The ULA and SF would win an overall majority if this site was the barometer of Irish life.. Thankfully its just online pub for people to rant and rave… If it keeps them happy, i guess it has a purpose..
@Declan Cotter
Ahh he’s back
Corks answer to KPMG Daddy
hows the brother in law doing?
Frank,
I think it best if we not comment or address each other… I really have no interest in you… Do me a favour and do likewise..
Declan
Declan, can I be your friend?
maybe you should have thought of that before you got your brother in law to
come on here and try to have a go at me,
very very childish on your part,
Sorry, what now? Where/when did this happen, Frank? Can you link it for me?
Was just reading this and thought of Michael and Declan: http://www.broadsheet.ie/2013/01/08/fair-play-though-in-fairness-35/
@Voodoo
look for my comment
http://t.co/NcbsQUFe
hope that works
Proper schoolyard stuff, that … you have to laugh.
Frank… No idea where you got the Cork thing??? Galway based actually… As for my cousin??? Are you for the birds?? You actually think I would go to the bother…or they would actually respond either… Afraid you just don’t rank that high in my life..
So lets just leave it…I really have no interest in anything to do with you…
Declan I will make this as easy as i can
When one makes a comment using a facebook account its very easy to pop into that persons account
and find out who exactly that person is.
When I did, i just had a quick check through his friends list and low and behold what did i find.
It was a pathetic excuse comment and as I said given the subject of the article was done in bad taste.
The days of schoolyard antics of getting the big cousin to stick up for you should be well gone for you
but as I said in reply to the man, its exactly what I expect from a blueshirt muppet!
Look at that big gombeen head on him.Never saw someone who wanted to be a Kennedy so much in my life.
The only thing that is flourishing on kennys watch are soup kitchens only they are calling them different names .
Has the hob goblin not got better things to do….like..eh….oh yea sort out the mess he is making
He is way too busy continuing on the mess that the other eejits left behind. Can’t be bothered with his own mess, nope he goes and makes and even bigger mess than the other eejits before him!! Ohh that and photo ops and makeup classes, and I’v heard he’s learning German. As I’v said he’s wayyy too busy
Be patient Robert…he’s fkng things up as fast as he can..
Just go’s to show how little he thinks about irish people who pay his wages.
He can travel to bavaria to adress the germans but he cant adress the irish people and explain about all the broken promises.
He treats the irish people with contempt just like the rest of this government.
Cant wait for this government to repeat history and end up in the political wilderness again.
Totally agree Mr Gannon and it makes me sick to the pit of my stomach when I see him swanning around having his ego stroked.
Is it possable to any more detached from reality .
Speaking of things that make me sick to the pit of my stomach… Ladies and Gentlemen ,may I introduce the troll called collins.
This saddo will stalk you and make snide comments if you call kenny a liar or make any other comments on kenny and his merry band of semi detached liars.
Out of line, Michael. That could easily be construed as a personal threat – either engage with the substance of what someone’s saying or ignore them.
Huh! Summoned to Munich to explain what Ireland will be doing for the eu presidency but will be dealt with by a party less likely to help Ireland than merkel’s party which are actually in government?
Sound’s like a set up..
German banks will be just fine though..
Jaysus…they’ll be issuing him with a German passport next..
Will they keep him?!!
Hopefully.
There is no actual money. It’s all so ludicrous. The famous march bond holder payment is nonsense. Kenny must be the worst possible kind of fool.
If you were a German you’d have to be getting extremely fed up with paying off everyone elses debts at this stage. I wonder how much of the tax german citizens pay goes to other countries?
As an Irish citizen and tax payer I’m fed up paying other peoples debt’s as well. Over €6.1 billion will be paid by the Irish tax payer to service bank debts this year.
Cian the German citizen doesn’t pay anybody else’s debts, it lends money at interest.
@Cian Doherty
What a hands down award winning muppet comment. If you don’t know what’s going on by now then put down your orange crayon and ask teacher.
So Kenny is been sworn in to Merkhal sister party as party jester.
Frothing at the mouth comments utilising 1970s German stereotypes and references to World War Two in 5, 4, 3….
1970s German stereotypes?What are you jibba jabberin about?
Don’t mind Michael j he is fg to the bone,don’t mention sf of he’l be off for the day
Really simple. Any mention of politics or politicians on this site brings out a cohort of basically morons who blame all ills on whatever TD is the subject of the article, utilise crass and crude language, have no collective memory of anything further back in time time than last Tuesday and offer no workable alternative to anything save a whine about something they feel somebody else (government, rich, whatever) should have provided for their entitled asses.
These people are usually green thumbed into the stratosphere. Clear enough?
I remember a time a short time ago when kaiser kenny said ‘ it was immoral to tax a person’s home’ but then again I can remember plenty of things he said that he has forgot or maybe it’s different when your lining your own pockets
Just to point out that if you had experienced the kind of real poverty that now exists in Germany, particularly when looking at the plight of pensioners in many German cities, you would be riled by (mischievous) reports about spendthrift foreign governments getting a digout on your dime. There’s a huge amount of unfair anti German sentiment here which is likewise based on misinformation and sloganeering. Yes, German banks invested here, yes, Merkel wants to avoid the sort of banking collapse we experienced without holding her banking bosses to account – didn’t work out well where she did- No, not a cent has passed from Berlin to us, but that doesn’t matter when everyone latches on to the injustices they perceive in the current crisis and fails to force politicians to make real steps to solving a self inflicted EU (not purely Irish) crisis.
I would agree with your comment if it wasn’t for one thing. Countries haven’t gotten a “dig-out” from Germany. They’ve accepted a loan to prevent a banking collapse and must pay a significant amount of interest on the repayments.
Germany stands to profit immensely from this crisis while also preserving their banking sector.
@ Don – well said. I’ve been living in Germany for about 8 years, and it drives me crazy how uninformed and simply bigoted many of the anti-German comments are on this site. The idea that Germany is sitting pretty while Europe drowns is laughable and an insult to those of us trying the scratch out a living here. The fact is that, while unemployment is lower, the day-to-day life of someone living and working in Germany is in no way easier than in Ireland, the financial worry for households is no less, and, unlike Ireland, we’re looking over the cliff-edge here. It’s going to get worse in Germany before it gets better, and I do believe that Ireland’s passed its lowest point in the crisis. Before people lash out idiotic and inaccurate comments about “Ze Germans”, please ask a few people who actually know about life there first and at least try to connect your opinions to reality..
Ecellent comments John and Don but don’t expect anything but abuse on this forum….. Ignornace is a very confortable state for the majority on j.ie….
Like this country and now alot of countries in Europe it is not the German people that the criticism is aimed at but their Government Banks Bankers Speculators Corporations yes German people are starting to feel the pinch too and are soon awakening up to the fact that they have been duped by the bastions of power who are robing the ordinary citizen to cover the costs of their high stakes betting ring .So when people say the Germans they say the power brokers that run the country and in finance it is because if you were to name all the Banksters and crooked Politicians you would be typing all day.
Jason, I completely agree with you that German banks stand to benefit in some way, particularly, in not collapsing under the weight of their capricious investments. Germany the country, however, could do without it for several reasons. In particular, calls for leadership from Germany have been met with unease in Germany, as voiced in particular by former Chancellor Helmut Schmidt.
I wasn’t, however, saying that our bailout was a ‘dig-out’, I was in fact stating that this is how any economic support has been characterized by some sections of the German media. Lousy reportage is not limited to Ireland, the tabloid ‘Bild’ newspaper, for instance, was responsible for some serious rabble rousing against Greece. Apologies for any confusion.
I can understand that when people refer to “Germans” they mean a certain group of investors, politicians and industialists/bankers, but these cliques exist as a tiny minority of ever nation. Referring to them as “the Germans” is the same as referring to the relate cult few bankers, developers and politicians in Ireland as “the Irish”, which I’m sure many people who contribute here would take extreme exception to.
Will he be speaking in German can he tell lies in that language or does he restrict it to English
If they know him as well as we do sure they will know they have him by the gooleys
well if/when the germans get their way on the federal europe it will be a regular thing for irish politicians to be summoned to headquarters so its just setting the pace in a few years it will all seem natural and it wont be written about or wont be commented on as natural as the sun rising. Seems amazing to me that people are sleep walking into all this with out a word or a national debate on it. When the german ambassador goes on national radio and says it is the next step and then proceeds to sell the idea as being good for Ireland and it wasnt even debated any where.it was the friday interview with matt cooper.
he is leading the comic relief delegation . .
That should sort them out…..
He won’t get the same reception from the CSU that he got from the fawning media when he got his European of the Year award and coming in the week that Der Spiegel ran a major article which questioned Ireland’s “recovery” he may be in for a big surprise.
Wait a minute! Who’s going to oversee Jim Reilly and the HSE while Kenny is away? see http://www.ottosbunker.com
Kenny’s golden star butt kissing forelock tugging and groveling award show will take on extra levels of subservience while in the presence of the sister party of Merkel austerity brigade. Kenny will try to regale the assembled masses of the joyous time ENDA is having being the Quisling EUNUCH poodle for Mammy Merkel. Merkel’s financial blitzkrieg of austerity in Ireland to be in the shining light of brilliance of Merkel’s EU policy will be backed up by Enda Eunuch poodle Kenny.
Two words. “Vichy France” god help our children…
Germany took 92 years to pay off World War 1 debt, they refuse to pay back Greece money they borrowed during World War 2. Give Ireland, Greece et al. 92 years to pay back bailout loans with a fixed return sum say ?70 billion for Ireland, 10 years to reform economic sustainability and Euro crisis over. It is that simple, Greed is the only factor making it impossible! Fair treatment for all in recovering from crisis. Germany got it after Two World Wars, why shouldn’t we get it now?
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