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LAST SUNDAY WAS Census Day in Northern Ireland. It is expected to show the current feeling of national identity in the NI population and could well confirm the reported demographic shift away from a unionist majority.
In the last Census (2011), 40% declared themselves to be British, 25% Irish and 21% Northern Irish. In the meantime, we have had Brexit and the rise of the pro-independence movement in Scotland. This 2021 Census could well be the last Census ever in NI as part of the UK.
If the UK union is really weakening, it is now more than probable that Border referendums on the reunification of the island of Ireland will take place within the next five to ten years.
Sinn Féin has called for referendums to be held much sooner. In the past, referendums have been lost in Ireland because the electorate was not informed nor fully convinced of the proposals being put to them.
The lesson learned is that a full and honest debate should take place before a referendum, not, as in the case of the UK’s Brexit Referendum, afterwards.
We should remember the Nice Referendum in 2001 and the Lisbon Referendum in 2008, which were both lost on the neutrality issue.
Defence Policy for a United Ireland needed
In any future referendums on Irish reunification the issue of what defence policy a united Ireland should adopt, needs to be considered. In fact, it should be addressed, in advance, so that voters, North and South, know the full picture before making such a momentous decision on reunification.
Two key questions need to be answered. First, would the people in the South support joining NATO as part of the price of reunification? Conversely, would the people of Northern Ireland accept leaving NATO and supporting military neutrality as part of reunification?
At present, the Northern Ireland taxpayer is paying seven times more on defence (2% of GDP) than his/her Southern counterpart (0.27% of GDP). The EU average is 1.2% while the NATO average is 1.3% of GDP.
There is a third option, to be raised and set aside, which is that both current jurisdictions retain their present defence policies after reunification. However, if unification means that the all-Ireland State will be sovereign and independent, it is hard to see how two different and contradictory defence policies could be in place on one island.
Foreign and defence policies go hand in hand. It might, in theory, work, if Ireland were to become a two-state confederation of separate and independent states, pursuing two separate foreign and defence policies.
Of course, a confederal solution should be an option to be examined, along with a unitary state and a federal state. Nevertheless, even in a confederal situation, it would be doubtful that two separate defence forces, would be what the Irish people might have in mind by reunification.
Back in Dec 1993, the UK agreed, in the Downing Street Declaration, that it had “no selfish strategic or economic interest” in remaining in NI.
This does not mean that the UK will accept a weakening in its national defence arising from Irish reunification. Such a weakening of its national defence, on its North Atlantic flank, could occur if NI became part of an undefended neutral Ireland and if Scotland were also to become independent.
Ireland, the weak link
Up to recently, the North Atlantic had faded in strategic importance since the end of the Cold War. However, Swedish defence analysts have concluded that Russian military exercises in the Baltic area, along the Arctic Circle and down the North-Eastern Atlantic coastline, including in Irish territorial waters, is about cutting the link between the US and Europe.
The outgoing Officer Commanding Naval Operations Command, Captain (NS) Brian Fitzgerald, has pointed out that a large number of transatlantic cables, linking the two continents, are at their most vulnerable in the shallow waters off the Irish Continental Shelf. Maybe some might think we can manage very well without the Internet. Others would disagree.
The problem for the UK and NATO is not Irish Neutrality, but the long-standing underfunding of our Defence Forces for its primary role of national defence.
Until recently, as a defence analyst, I had hoped that Irish-British mutual defence issues could be addressed ultimately within the context of EU Common Defence. With Brexit, this is no longer possible.
Alternatively, I had thought that an Irish Government would start to move towards bringing defence spending in line with other nations, which would mean that we would no longer be the weak link in Europe’s North Atlantic Defence. It seems I am wrong on both counts.
Until we sort out the defence issue, it is probably best to forget about Irish reunification.
Colonel Dorcha Lee (retd) is a former Defence Forces Provost Marshal and Director of Military Police. He is a former Irish Military Advisor in Brussels and a former military representative to the WEU and the EU.
Steady figures. Keep up the good work.
The numbers are going in the right direction. RIP to those who have lost their lives. As hard as it is, keep sticking to the rules… we are nearly there.
@Olive Whyte: The Tallaght testing centre was the busiest I have ever seen it yesterday since testing started hope that ain’t a sign
@Happy entertainment: Hopefully not.
@Happy entertainment: I’d say that’s people mistaking their annual hay fever for symptoms. It’s not even a pandemic anymore.
@Happy entertainment: More testing in itself is a good thing. It all depends on the results.
@Happy entertainment: prob hay fever symtoms sending people there.
@Happy entertainment: there was no testing at the tallaght centre mon, tues or today. Must be fewer cases being referred for testing so they are doing them all in one day now rather than spreading them out over 5 days.
@Colm Malone: do you mean its not a pandemic locally or globally?
@Bill Clay: pandemics tend not to be local affairs.
@Happy entertainment: Th roads were the buissiest i’ve seen them too in months. And i’ve been driving to work the whole time. bit worried about what we may see in about 2 weeks time.
@Happy entertainment: just to balance that I’ve heard from someone that tests two places are only doing afternoon testing now as there’s no need for a.m at at present
@Trevor Donoghue: let’s call their bluff if it is a scam we all survive if not we get a cold.
@Colm Malone: It is still capable of being one again and that is why it should not be taken that it is done and dusted
5th worst per capita in the world, New Zealand is better than us, US is better than us,Cheltenham was the governments fault, Italian tourists, 2 meter rule. Ok, got all the negatives out of the way ( usual ones). Positively. Nice to see it steadying out and going the right way. Sad for those who died and their families.
@John fitzpatrick: praaaaaaatttttttt New York and London far worse than us.
@John fitzpatrick: nonsense moans. Social media mob rubbish about Cheltenham and Italians. Zero proof. I suppose today’s are keelings fault and next week will be leo and his picnics fault. Virus was here since before Christmas and certainly well active in the community before March.
Lunacy comparing us to New Zealand and US. Doesn’t even deserve a response. Stats are totally skewed by how countries report it.
@John fitzpatrick: where did you get 5th?
@John fitzpatrick: No. It’s all down to volume of testing and what countries attribute to death on death cert. The only way we will know exactly how different countries mortality rates will be in 12 months when you can see the % increase in average deaths over a previous 5 year period. Brazil looking to be number one for sure. Many scientists believe the true number of infections in brazil is north of 5 million.
I wouldn’t be so sure about the U.S. Their numbers are SLIGHTLY better, but firstly, they are a couple of weeks behind us as it hit the U.S. a little later, I think, and their numbers haven’t really started coming down yet to the extent ours have, so we should probably be comparing their figures with ours a couple of weeks ago, the way we compared ourselves with Italy a couple of weeks before earlier. Also, I am not sure if they are counting probable deaths, so their death rate may actually be higher if they counted as we did. It’s very hard to compare across countries, given that different countries count deaths differently and different countries are at different places as it arrived in different countries at different times.
@Philip King ⚡️: awwww come guys. I could not find the sarcasm font on here. I was only trying to get all the moans we usually see on here out early. Phillip. It’s a stat usually thrown out here that has been proven wrong many times.
@John fitzpatrick: ahh the old per head of capita nonsense. If other countries were reporting as transparently as us then we would be 15-20th on the list. Can’t have a league table if some teams are not reporting dropped points.
@Philip King ⚡️: he’s talking about the “per capita” figures, which if looked at like that, yes Ireland has fared pretty badly compared to the rest of the world. We have one of the highest number of cases per 100,000, well ahead of other EU countries. We’re certainly in the top 10 most affected countries. You can track it here: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/cumulative-cases
@Daniel O Sullivan: again it depends hows its reported. We were Including community, hospital, nursing home and also probable deaths. The uk were reporting on hospital deaths at one stage.
@John fitzpatrick: Jo
@John fitzpatrick: john
it is way too early to do comparative stats. all deaths are sad!
@Paul O’Sullivan: he said Per Capita – Not Per Capital. So the figures for New York and London are not what he is comparing to Dublin!. The USA has an approximate population of 331,000,000 with 100,418 deaths – meaning 303deaths per million. Ireland has a population of 4,937,000 with 1639 deaths – meaning 332 deaths per million. clearly, Ireland is worse “Per Capita”.
However, using per capita figures can be misleading. Belgium has a population of 11,460,000 with 9,364 deaths – meaning 817 deaths per million.
In fact Ireland has the 8th highest mortality rate per capita in the world. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality
@Brian Madden: yes and there is still some issues about what is being reported when especially as regards in the community. They are sdtill only settin gv and up their track and trace unit.
@John fitzpatrick: I give up, well at least I give up my satire career. Over before it started, shot down in a ball of flames. I have spent weeks saying that stat was not correct and only a stat on reported deaths, not actual deaths. But today I thought I’d mention it before the usual suspects. And just for the record, I don’t blame Cheltenham, the Italians or anyone else. Yesterday someone compared us to the Isle of Man. Ok, into retirement I go.
@John fitzpatrick: Ah ye brat ye.
@Nioe: how would Cheltenham not have had an impact. Italian rugby fans too for that matter?
@Brian Madden: we shouldn’t be comparing to the UK. We should be comparing to countries who have handled it well
@Daniel O Sullivan:
Deaths per 1m pop we are 11th
Cases per 1m pop we are 13th.
@Gary Pheasey: well aware what he was implying, but I’m sick of all that per capita nonsense…. they are only statistics, it means nothing to the individuals that have lost their lives.
Behind every life lost is a personal journey of one person on earth. And we only live once. Statistics especially per capita are useless information…
But a country with 330 million and having 100 000 deaths plus and our small nation having just over 1600 plus it is all immaterial it is a loss of a life, an individual, ……
@John fitzpatrick: for anyone really interested in stats, this link was posted by a journal commenter this morning https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/
It is a measure and comparison of death rates and variences over the last few years in European countries. It uses a scoring system to even out population differences. Over the last 16 weeks while our death rate is above the norm Ireland had one of the flattest curves and is regarded as moderate. Most of the other countries have spikes. An interesting point is that reported deaths last week were below our norm.
@John fitzpatrick: You can’t believe ANYTHING coming from America. The people are afraid to even GET a test. There’s crazy rumours it will stop you getting health insurance or join the military
@Paul O’Sullivan: sure of course that’s what you meant.
@John fitzpatrick: they simply aren’t counting deaths in the same way, we include ALL PROBABLE deaths whereas many countries do not and only go off whether or not the deceased have had a positive test before they passed.
@Derdaly: actually that’s a very interesting chart. It shows that we had nearly the same spikes in 2017 and 2018. But compared to other countries at just over a 6% increase in actual deaths , we are way better than many and sitting somewhere in the middle. Ok, that’s a stat that you can compare countries as it measures increases in deaths year on year.
@Derdaly: that’s a great link, the z-scores would seem to indicate we’ve done alright compared to many other countries. Must keep an eye on that one.
Won’t suit the doomlords though.
@John fitzpatrick:
Give it a rest ffs. So Cheltenham was the Government’s fault? The last time I checked Chaltenham is in England not Ireland. Also those Italian fans who came over had nothing got to do with cases here.
Sinn Fein voter by any chance? Yawn
@Nioe: failed maths at school i see
@John fitzpatrick: muted I love this platform!!
@John fitzpatrick:
I am blue in the face saying this…
We don’t know how many cases because they are all running different amount of tests…
We don’t know death count because there are different methods of counting (or in UK missing them entirely)
What we do know is excess deaths i.e. the excess deaths or normal…
Here is that result…
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps
Ireland looks very good here when compared… We have done a great job and one of them is our testing levels are some of the highest in the world… We counted people despite the political cost unlike some other countries.
I would ask, should we be testing everyone coming from other countries?
Half the figure from yesterday. Still think the meat factories have a lot to do with the new cases yesterday
@Michael Fleming: any evidence?
@Person who has cloned my name and avatar: How come your twitter account doesn’t exist??
@The Risen: Guarantee you it’s the usual muppet. Sad.
@The Risen: oh great, now we’ve got two risen’s to contend with.
@Bernard Sweeney: Fear not Bernard. I’m often imitated, but never emulated.
@The Risen: yep two twonks of your ilk would render mankind untenable.
@Michael Fleming: It’s not that they are allowed to do much else at that weather.
@The Risen: how can I tweet if I don’t have an account that exists?
@The Risen: I am Spartacus…you are Spartacus…
@The Risen: how do we know it’s you? I’ve seen that in movies. What if we shoot the wrong risen?
@Muppet pretending to be The Risen: I just clicked on your name. The twitter account doesn’t exist.
@Bernard Sweeney: If you look at the twitter handles there appears to be 18 of them.
@The Risen: no evidence as he pulled that nugget of information straight out of his arse.
OPEN THE PUBS!!(grabs popcorn)
@Lets be real: who needs to open the pubs when the beaches are thronged with people and kids running around during this good weather
@Lets be real: OPEN THE CINEMAS!!(grabs pints)
@Pauliebhoy: Open your wallet wide when the eye watering taxes hit
That’s good , but just look how many people are traveling to the beach today
@john: just drove around beaches here in Wexford loads of cars parked on road as beaches are closed if anything happened no way emergency services could get through. Car reg nos being taken
@Mary Oliver: The Gestapo would have loved you.
@Tereck:
@john: According to Prof Luke O’Neil (Professor (Chair of Biochemistry) Affiliations: School of Biochemistry and Immunology TCD) today, you’re 19 times less likely to catch it outdoors than in so beach seems like a good idea. Also said that 10% of cases caused other 80%,super spreaders he called them. Most people don’t infect anyone else. Also said singing or shouting in close quarters not a good idea. Obviously paraphrasing him but interview is on Newstalk.
@Tereck: I am only saying what happened merely an observation
@john: People going to the beach on a fine day, imagine that, thats really awful that people are enjoying their lives
@Mary Oliver: why are people jumping to the wrong conclusion all I was saying was what the situation at the beaches were today not criticising
@Mary Oliver: I Hope you remembered what Simon says….not to be getting any new curtains for all that window squinting
@Dave Hammond:???
@Mary Oliver: you need to find some other more productive way to fill your time instead of policing beaches.
Oooooh me nerves….
LOCKDOWN UNTIL 2027!!!!
@Tom: Finally some sense!
RIP. As always. Figures will tell a lot next week, they’ll reflect restrictions being eased and hopefully cases/deaths keep falling.
We have the bugger on the run. Now, let’s lock down our land and sea border. #buildthatwall
@Jane Aelst: good woman Jane. Let’s lock us all in our country. The air is clear so we should have a good view of the rest of the world opening up around us.
@John fitzpatrick: I’d rather be locked down in Ireland than just my house.
@Mr Cylinical: jet setter
@Jane Aelst: you’re like a conflicted Gemma O Doherty Jane.
@Jane Aelst: Make Arlene pay
Fergus O’Dowd is blaming the big companies who own the Nursing Homes for not investing more. We just rented out every private fascility in the country (with staff) but did not utilise it. He said that only 23% were viral control complacent. If the companies werent up to scratch or finacially liable thats an oversight and questions why they had licenses to operate. The government were the ones to oversee. Everyone knew what was coming with the Nursing Homes. Its an absolute tragedy. Its not about blame, but our ability to take responsibility.
@tadhgkelleher: And St Mary’s, Phoenix Park, publicly owned, had one of the worst number of deaths.
@tadhgkelleher: caused by respite care admissions from public hospitals perhaps?
Kick leo out and send him back to his own house.
No way of ever knowing but i wonder how many people who died with covid in ireland would have past away regardless
@sean bergin.
Every one of them would have.eventually.
But unfortunately they all contracted Covid -19, which caused their premature deaths.
@Feardorcha Ó Maolomhnaigh: you don’t know it caused their premature deaths. If someone had covid and got knocked down by a car and died they would go into the stats as died “with” covid 19. Lots of those who had covid had mild symptoms but if they died of a stroke or heart attack which they were in imminent danger of but covid didn’t cause then they would also go down as died “with” covid 19.
@Feardorcha Ó Maolomhnaigh: Holohan doesn’t even admit that.
@Dino:
The numbers recorded, are people who have died because of contracting Covid-19. Your example of a car accident in completely incorrect.
The Maynooth /UL study of RIP.ie show an increase in deaths for the March/ April period over 2019 which is close to the reported number of Covid-19 deaths.
This virus kills causes people to die, and has been the cause of death for over 1600 Irish people since early March.
You need to reattach yourself to the real world.
@Dino: Covid is listed if it is the cause or part cause of the death.
your attempt to show otherwise is a false premise at best
@Gary Kearney: have you a source for that? Because otherwise its just going to be a back and forwards me saying your wrong and you saying I’m wrong. It says died “with” not dies as a result or part result of having contracted coronavirus, seems pretty clear to me
The day we had zero was the day after Leo’s lark in the park
@523StarBar: Leos nipples are the cure. Part of me already knew that.
Did Tony say they will continue to report confirmed and probable deaths? I haven’t heard probable figures been mentioned in a long time. Are they just included in the overall and not declared as X amount of the total are probable? Probable means they suspect the person who died might of had covid but not based on any testing?
Open the spuds
Day 1: 60 cases
Day 2: 50 cases
“Fantastic, numbers heading in the right direction”
Day 3: 53 cases
“OMFG WE’RE ALL GOING TO DIE VOTE SINN FEIN”
Day 4: 52 cases
“Fantastic, numbers heading in the right direction”
@Peter McKenna: for goodness sake. Have a bit of respect for the families that have lost loved ones before you start spinning your hoola hoop.
Am I wrong ?
I taught he said 8 death’s in his speech ??
Not 9 as in all other news !
Lets all top ourselves lads. The virus cant get us if we are already dead.
have your say