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jobs predictor
Here are nine things about the internet that Steve Jobs knew to be true - 20 years ago
The late, great Apple supremo had a somewhat eerie insight into how our web-dominated world was set to develop in 1996.
8.45am, 19 Mar 2016
44.0k
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Jeff Chiu / PA
Jeff Chiu / PA / PA
IN 1996, GOOGLE was still a research project at Stanford, the state-of-the-art PC operating system was Windows 95, and Amazon was a small startup selling books.
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And Steve Jobs was not yet back at Apple when he gave a remarkably prescient interview to Wired’s website the same year. Although the iMac, iPod, and iPhone were still years away, and Jobs was working at NeXT, he clearly saw where the computing industry was headed.
And although his later work at Apple clearly influenced the way things turned out, he still offers a slew of predictions that are shockingly accurate today.
Here’s what Jobs got right:
Jobs’ major prediction was that the web will be ubiquitous. Of course, lots of people predicted that, but he made a remark about “web dial tone everywhere” that does hint at the mobile-first world of today.
AP / Press Association Images
AP / Press Association Images / Press Association Images
“There will be Web dial tone everywhere. And anything that’s ubiquitous gets interesting.”
Another big prediction: commerce was going to be killer on the web.
Amazon
Amazon
When asked about the main beneficiaries of the web, Jobs said that it would be people who have something to sell: “It’s commerce. People are going to stop going to a lot of stores. And they’re going to buy stuff over the Web!”
Amazon founder Jeff Bezos was paying attention, even though Amazon was only a small book-focused startup at the time. 20 years later, Amazon did $105 billion in net sales in 2015 and even large retail chains like WalMart are struggling to keep up and shuttering stores these days.
AP
AP
Of course, as we know now, there were missteps on the way to regularly buying things online. Later in the interview, Jobs said that big-time e-commerce was “about two years away”, but that it was going to be huge.
“The third thing is commerce, which is even harder than complex publishing because you have to tie the Web into your order-management system, your collection system, things like that. I think we’re still two years away. But that’s also going to be huge,” Jobs said.
There were missteps on the way, like Pets.com, which had very little revenue and went out of business in 2000.
Jobs said if the “Web got up to 10% of the goods and services in this country, it would be phenomenal”. According to the latest US Census, e-commerce accounts for 7.5% of total retail sales today.
BI Intelligence / Company Filings
BI Intelligence / Company Filings / Company Filings
Jobs also predicted that the internet would be a formidable way to bypass the middleman, a main theme in tech startups for the past 20 years.
Melia Robinson / Business Insider
Melia Robinson / Business Insider / Business Insider
“The best way to think of the Web is as a direct-to-customer distribution channel, whether it’s for information or commerce. It bypasses all middlemen. And, it turns out, there are a lot of middlepersons in this society. And they generally tend to slow things down, muck things up, and make things more expensive. The elimination of them is going to be profound,” Jobs said.
Today, startups like Casper sell mattresses directly to consumers, Warby Parker sells frames to people who need eyewear, and Kickstarter lets people support ideas they like.
And he warned: “Large companies not paying attention to change will get hurt.”
Wikimedia Commons
Wikimedia Commons
“The Web is just going to be one more of those major change factors that businesses face every decade. This decade, in the next 10 years, it’s going to be the Web. It’s going to be one of them,” Jobs said.
Seems like taxi companies, bookstores, and record companies would agree.
One prediction was for fully-featured web applications years before terms like AJAX and Web 2.0 were coined: “People are starting to do complex publishing on the Web – very simple forms of it. This will absolutely explode in the next 12 to 18 months.”
“It’s the next big phase of the Web,” Jobs said. “Have you seen the Federal Express Web site where you can track a package?”
Another shocking prediction was Jobs predicting Tesla – or at least, Tesla’s business model for its dealerships.
“Take auto dealerships. So much money is spent on inventory – billions and billions of dollars. Inventory is not a good thing. Inventory ties up a ton of cash, it’s open to vandalism, it becomes obsolete. It takes a tremendous amount of time to manage. And, usually, the car you want, in the colour you want, isn’t there anyway, so they’ve got to horse-trade around. Wouldn’t it be nice to get rid of all that inventory? Just have one white car to drive and maybe a laserdisc so you can look at the other colours. Then you order your car and you get it in a week,” Jobs explained.
Today, Tesla “stores” have nearly no cars on-lot. Instead, prospective buyers can check out sample cars, and order online or through a salesperson for later delivery, depending on the state. Laserdiscs, however, are not part of the process.
AP / Press Association Images
AP / Press Association Images / Press Association Images
Of course, Tesla’s dealerships could have been influenced by Apple Stores, which were one of Jobs’ projects. So obviously there’s a debate as to whether Jobs predicted this or influenced it himself.
Steve Jobs predicted that the desktop market will be in the “dark ages for the next 10 years, or certainly for the rest of the decade.” In 2006, Apple’s Mac moved to Intel processors, shaking up the staid market. Today, Apple is the only PC maker showing sales growth.
Jobs holding up the new MacBook Air after giving the keynote address at the Apple MacWorld Conference in San Francisco, 15 January 2008 Jeff Chiu / PA
Jeff Chiu / PA / PA
“Eventually, Microsoft will crumble because of complacency, and maybe some new things will grow. But until that happens, until there’s some fundamental technology shift, it’s just over.”
Jobs seemed to be predicting cloud services as well, like Apple’s iCloud or Google Drive: “The minute that I don’t have to manage my own storage, and the minute I live primarily in a connected versus a stand-alone world, there are new options for metaphors.”
Jobs talking about iCloud at a Worldwide Developers Conference in San Francisco AP / Press Association Images
AP / Press Association Images / Press Association Images
“I don’t store anything anymore, really. I use a lot of email and the Web, and with both of those I don’t have to ever manage storage. As a matter of fact, my favourite way of reminding myself to do something is to send myself email. That’s my storage,” Jobs said.
He even seemed to have an inkling that Chromebooks would be a product, before Google had even finished its search engine: “It’s possible that some people could come out with some very interesting Web terminals and sell some hardware.”
Steve Kovach / Business Insider
Steve Kovach / Business Insider / Business Insider
“It’s much like the old mainframe computing environment, where a Web browser is like a dumb terminal and the Web server is like the mainframe where all the processing’s done,” Jobs said.
Jobs was a huge supporter of technology in schools, but even in 1996 he realised that adding technology doesn’t automatically make schools better.
Jobs also argued that people were already living in “information overload” and “most people get far more information than they can assimilate anyway”. That might have been true and remains true today, but obviously Instagram and Twitter addicts would disagree.
But even with all of those predictions about how the web could revolutionise industries, Jobs did say that technology doesn’t change the world, which is arguably wrong!
AP
AP
“The Web is going to be very important. Is it going to be a life-changing event for millions of people? No. I mean, maybe. But it’s not an assured Yes at this point. And it’ll probably creep up on people.”
It’s certainly not going to be like the first time somebody saw a television. It’s certainly not going to be as profound as when someone in Nebraska first heard a radio broadcast. It’s not going to be that profound,” Jobs said.
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Don’t label Pedophiles, Sadists and self serving liars such as this Pope as Christians, they are anything but true Christians, no true Christian would defend clerical abuse nor its cover ups.
@Eleanor of Aquitaine: but anyone who remains a member of the Catholic cult in light of it’s recent history is culpable too. By staying as a members, all catholics are part of the problem and by association complicit in the cover up.
@Mr. Fantastic: If someone relentlessly defends a Church that shelters child abusers, they’re unlikely to be a fan of child abuse but they’re definitely a huge part of the problem.
That much is certain. Anyone who is trying to shirk the disgusting past and present of this institution is betraying the victims of abuse. Any ‘real’ Catholic wouldn’t be defending the Church at this stage, they’d be vocal critics, as many are.
@Mr. Fantastic: your argument would be fine if it was one leader or a handful of leaders or if it was for one period of time. This has been from the church’s beginnings and has been systematic. People burying their heads in the sand is not good enough anymore.
@Dermot Lane: It may be easy to say, and it may even be easy to accuse, but for some people, and especially a part of the older generation…being Catholic is a part of their identity. The beliefs, the ideals, the shared experiences with family members, friends, their local church and community…and which is actually personal and not tied up with the larger scandals which have embroiled the church. I was brought up a Catholic…like the vast majority of us here…like the vast majority of Irish people. It is just something which is part of the fabric of our lives, especially the formative years. And yes, I realize that for some people those formative years were tragically and unforgivably violated in the most brutal and evil fashions by some member of the Catholic clergy, and there was a systematic cover up by the Administration of the church and Vatican….but that entity is something which is largely divorced from the average Catholic. The average Catholic is somebody who is part of a community linked by faith and beliefs, by shared experiences and a devotion to something bigger than themselves…which is their faith, their community, their beliefs. And I am not a Catholic anymore. I am lapsed. I dont believe in God or any parts of the religion…I am essentially agnostic bordering on atheist. But it doesnt mean that I believe the church has NO place in society. Yes…it very much needs to clean up its act and own up to and not shout down any claims against it…but that is the church as an International Administrative organisation…that is the hierarchy…that is the Vatican and the College of Cardinals, the Holy See and the Bishops…that isnt the people sitting in the pews on a Sunday morning, or volunteering for the many religious charities and societies like St. Vincent De Paul. I understand that many people are angry, that many people are frustrated but honestly, taking this anger out on people who just want to believe in something and be a part of something in their local community is just wrong. There are many levels and many ranges which the word Catholic applies, and not all of them are bad, or secretive, or corrupt in any way…and they do not deserve your anger. In many ways, many parts which form part of the Catholic brand, and many people working within it are only there to try to do something good. Tarring the whole thing, and anyone who is even slightly associated with it, all for the misdeeds and wrongdoings of only a part of it….thats just wrong. Its very ill informed. Its actually ignorant and fueled by bitterness. So…by all means lay whatever charges you like at the door of the hierarchy…they maybe deserve it. The average Catholic on the street who just wants to be left alone to believe what they want and practice that belief as part of a community should be left alone…they bear no responsibility for the evils which are not perpetrated by them. And if it is identity politics that you want to play…then nobody should be free of persecution. If every member of a group should be judged on the misdeeds, wrongdoings and evils of one or a small minority within it….then we are all guilty by your reckoning of something…and we all should be ashamed…and you cant get any more Catholic than that…now can you??? But if you believe that you hold no shame for the misdeeds of any other…then you have to apply those same criteria to everyone else.
@Karen Wellington: well maybe…but then is anyone who has ever given a piece of clothing to St. Vincent De Paul not doing the same thing??? They are contributing to something which is at its very core Catholic. Or should we only promote and give to those Catholic entities which are not linked with paying the wages of priests??? Im not condoning any part of the ugly past and present of the Catholic church…but at the end of the day the parish priest is a good person in most places. I know personally very well that this is the case…from actual personal experience with a family member who the parish priest had been there for in lots of ways through a very hard time…and I will always be grateful to that man for his kindness and his comforting a family member even though I rarely go to a church, and only then for weddings and funerals…and I dont support them financially. But without that man, that priest that service, that relationship which my family member benefited from is gone. So why shouldnt the Catholic Community sponsor a priest willingly…the priest in their parish who in return ministers to them willingly…is that not a contract with the priest and not with the Vatican??? Those people who sponsor him a living are not enabling a paedophile or protecting one…they are giving to a covenant which they do so willingly for their community…nothing else in most other ways.
How would you have a priest survive Karen??? By begging for alms???
@Gillian Scully: i agree with your sentiment Gillian. I don’t believe in a god so I believe it is up to us to make sure they are listened to and treated with compassion, love and not accused of slander.
Yes that makes them just as bad, that’s why true Christians need to stand up to these false Christians and report any evidence of abuse to the authorities. IMO Pedos, Sadists and degenerates joined the church because they seen it as an easy way to get to children, not because the followed the ways of Christianity and Jesus Christ.
No, not all Catholics are part of the problem and complicit, these filthy Pedos and Sadists are there to undermine the church, they are not Christians… Search “Bella Dodd” & “Manning Johnson”.
@Karen Wellington: then u Karen, as a taxpayer, are culpable for all the ills in our society such as awful healthcare, unequal pay, injustices against travellers and refugees .. or perhaps a better and more reasoned approach is to remain as part of that society and the political process and work to eliminate the ills of our society. Much like many good Catholics try to do within the church.
@Eleanor of Aquitaine: sorry but there’s no other word. All Christians condone violence. The pope is their boss so either agree with him or you are not on his side. Remember he has a direct line to the Christian made up god
@Malachi: dont forget our very own cardinal s*um bag sean brady who covered his paedo mates the same way and who is currently in hiding in rural Ireland waiting for the day he faces the eternal flames of hell for the crimes of his rotten soul
This is person thats coming to ireland soon and thousands of people will line the streets to welcome and applaud him, turn him back at the airport i say and good riddance.
@Paul J. Redmond: the church is playing the long game.
They know that as an organisation they’ll outlive all the abuse victims. All they have to do is last a few more decades and the vast majority of victims will be dead.
@Jane: Religious orgs are inherently backward Jane.They are legacy control structures borne out of pre-science attempts at rationalizing our environment.
There we have it people, the real image of what the catholic church from the very top thinks of abuse victims still.
They think they are liars, just like the called the former mayor of clonmel back in the 1990s when they sent Vatican representatives to interview him and other victims in dublin. After that interview he tried to kill himself on the way back from Dublin.
This might be easy read this info, but it’s so much harder watch him discribe what happened to him
The group BishopAccountability.org published the first comprehensive analysis of Francis’ abuse track record while he was an Archbishop. The documents span the 15 years (1998-2013) he served as the head of the Buenos Aires church and includes information on 42 accused Argentine clerics.
Pope Francis said:
“The Catholic church is maybe the only public institution to have moved with transparency and responsibility,” he said. “No one else has done more. Yet the church is the only one to be attacked.”
BishopAccountability.org said on its website:
“[Bergoglio] released no documents, no names of accused priests, no tallies of accused priests, no policy for handling abuse, not even an apology to victims,”
This is outrageous. As I am the only Irish male Survivor Campaigner seeking ‘Rescue Services’ and ‘Safe Space Provisioning’ for survivors of clerical child sexual abuse who has met with Pope Francis, this news of Pope Francis accusing Chilean survivor and friend, Juan Carlos Cruz and others of slander, is deeply disturbing and that’s an understatement. This issue of the appointment of Juan Barros to Bishop of Osorno in 2015 (http://bit.ly/2Bfo1JU) lead the Papal Commission for the Protection of Minors to dismiss (placed on permanent leave) Peter Saunders, also a friend, from the PCPM (http://bit.ly/2DezNdx) in February 2016. He resigned under protest in December 2017. What is equally disturbing is that despite my tireless work for survivors of clerical child sexual abuse, the Irish media have not and do not consult or appear to permit any comment on clerical child sexual abuse survivor concerns and interests expressed by me. I was in recent contact with Juan Carlos Cruz encouraging him and others in Chile, reminding them that they are most certainly not alone in this world. We are acutely aware that Pope Francis is coming to Ireland later this year after the referendum on abortion has been held. His remarks in Chile have a very chilling effect on survivors here regarding the attitude of the Catholic Church towards victims of Catholic Church abuse. I only hope the media here will allow more survivor campaigner comment on these shocking developments. This is a dark day for the Catholic Church and what lies behind the apparent ‘tears’ and ‘compassion’ and ‘apologies’ expressed for the suffering of survivors of clerical child sexual abuse and their families. We ought to remember that Pope Francis chose Dublin this year for the World Meeting of Families. This is not looking good where the affront to the family by the Catholic Church, not only the Spiritual Family of God according to Catholic teaching and belief, but also the affront to the whole human family involved in the global scale of clerical child sexual abuse where not one country on the planet appears to have escaped sexual abuse by ministers of the Catholic Church. My solidarity is with Juan Carlos Cruz, Juan Carlos Claret and the good people of Osorno and Chile who will be deeply hurt by these unveiled words of condemnation of survivors of clerical child sexual abuse. We survivors stand together in this and send our love and commitment to all those in Chile facing the distress of these unguarded and ill-advised and deeply injurious papal comments. The papal visit to Chile could not have ended worse considering how damagingly hostile was its beginning – http://bit.ly/2Bf3hCl. I wrote about the papal audience granted an unknown number of Chilean survivors of clerical child sexual abuse in secret and expressed my deepest reservations about it – http://bit.ly/2mFZ7y3 – but now I am all the more convinced it was and is disingenuous. As one journalist has put it to me: “One major reason [for private papal audiences with survivors] has often been labeling the media as a band of wolves ready to pry and cause further harm to people already harmed enough, so I think many in the media agree about “there is something rotten in the State of Denmark” and that this argument deserves deeper scrutiny.”
The Ionabots are fierce quiet today. They must be off brainstorming their response. We should follow the methods they used in the SSMref and are using now in REPEAL. Let see….. How do they do it: ” Well I was a fervent Catholic, three masses of a Sunday and Novenas as an extra treat, but now…. “
I never understood why people are so keen on this guy. He’s the product of the same corrupt spider empire as the last one.
But that said. Maybe he has a point. #metoo article and you can’t scroll without someone shouting innocent until proven guilty. Do priests not get the same treatment? Why not? I’ve no idea whether Barros knew about the abuse or not, but there’s no evidence in the article.
@Havana na na na: That is what I was asking. He never responds if it is something that truly casts the pope and the Church in a bad light. If he could deny this story he would.
@Havana na na na: He’s going through the scores of abortion porn pics he has to pick out a few to send to Meehole along with his letter, angrily written in green biro, of course.
Well, he’s now demonstrated what he said in an interview last year. That he’s fallible and that he’s a sinner. It’s sure going to be an interesting visit to Ireland.
@Kate Flaherty: I wonder is the 20 million Euros of Tax payers money that is going to Pay for this Apologetic leader of Pedophiles, going to have a ‘Limit’.!!
Isn’t this how things work though – Innocent until Proven Guilty and all?
If I’m reading this all-over-the-place article correctly – Pope is pointing out the fact one is guilty – but holding off accusing the second of a cover-up until some evidence is demonstrated?
What an idiot. So much for him being a healing figure for the disgraced Catholic Church who covers for paedophiles, degenerates, abusers and slavery in Ireland and all the other countries they infest.
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