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IN HER SPEECH in the Europa Hotel in Belfast a fortnight ago, Mary Lou McDonald ended by imagining a Stormont Executive without the DUP.
An administration based on delivery, she told Sinn Féin colleagues, would be the result.
Only McDonald wasn’t imagining the prospect: she was instead reflecting on the past few months following the DUP’s departure from power-sharing, and spinning it as a positive.
The February decision by the DUP’s Paul Givan to resign as first minister imploded the executive, taking Sinn Féin’s Michelle O’Neill with him from her position as deputy.
Other ministers were able to stay in their roles as part of a shadow administration to sign off on various policies but the government cannot go on long-term without two premiers.
This remains the question that hangs over the Northern Ireland Assembly election on 5 May, with no guarantee that the DUP will return to government after it.
There are two reasons for this. The first is the Northern Ireland Protocol, which is unchanged and remains an issue for unionists.
The second reason is the real possibility that Sinn Féin may be elected as the largest party in Stormont and would therefore be entitled to nominate a first minister.
As part of the power-sharing structure formed as part of the Good Friday Agreement, the offices of first and deputy first minister must be shared between elected MLAs who designate themselves as either ‘nationalist’ or ‘unionist’.
Since the foundation of the Assembly, the office of first minister has always been held by a unionist. The DUP has held the position for the past 15 years and before that it was held by the UUP.
With Sinn Féin now potentially the largest party in the new Assembly, the unionist parties are refusing to say if they would nominate a deputy first minister in such circumstances.
For its part, Sinn Féin has said it will nominate for either the position of first or deputy first minister after the election.
The Alliance Party has argued that the rules should be changed to end the mandatory coalition of the largest unionist and largest nationalist parties.
Its party leader Naomi Long has said that if the largest party does not wish to go into government it could instead go into opposition.
Long says this would allow for a coalition of the parties “willing” to serve and would end the effective veto the two largest parties have on the operation of the Executive.
Sinn Féin, however, is opposed to the change, insisting that it “will be defending, not renegotiating the Good Friday Agreement”.
So in that context, how likely is it that Sinn Féin will be elected as the largest party in Stormont?
In 2017, the party emerged with 27 MLAs, just one less than the DUPs 28. This time, polling indicates that Sinn Féin is on course to be the largest party.
A poll last week from the Institute of Irish Studies, University of Liverpool put support for Sinn Féin at 27%, some 7 points ahead of the DUP at 20%.
Latest @IrishInstitute @irish_news results.
— David McCann (@dmcbfs) April 4, 2022
Voters coalescing around SF. Signs of DUP recovery and APNI still polling strongly. #AE22
🟩SF-27%
🟧DUP-20.2%
🟨APNI-14.6%
🟦UUP-13.5%
🟥SDLP-10.3%
🟪TUV-5.4%
Significantly, Sinn Féin’s popularity appears to be unchanged compared to the 2017 result whereas the DUP is down significantly from 28% to about 20%.
Speaking to The Journal, deputy editor of the Slugger O’Toole website David McCann says Sinn Féin’s objective in the 5 May vote is consolidation rather than an increase.
Sinn Fein aren’t running to gain anywhere because that election couldn’t have gone any better for them last time. What they’re looking to do is protect their seats. Sinn Fein have a whole lot of constituencies where they’ve got more than one seat. North Belfast they’ve got one seat, in West Belfast they’ve got four out of the five seats.
In all the western constituencies, so West Tyrone, Fermanagh & South Tyrone, they’ve got three out of five seats, Mid Ulster they’ve got three out of five seats, Newry & Armagh three out of five. So they’re trying to protect the third seats in some of those constituencies.
McCann says Sinn Féin has so far run a “very disciplined and low level campaign” that is focused trying to avoid stoking any controversy that would give opponents even more of a reason to vote.
He points to the conciliatory positions Michelle O’Neill has taken on the Border Poll and the ‘exclusion’ of the Green Party from the Leaders Debate.
McCann argues that what Sinn Féin needs to do is to not just win but to ensure it maintains a big enough gap between itself and the DUP.
“They need the DUP to be about seven or eight percentage points behind them because whilst the DUP could come behind Sinn Féin in terms of votes, that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll come behind them in terms of seats.”
If you think back to 1998, the SDLP got more first preference votes than Ulster Unionists, but the Ulster Unionists still got more seats. Again in 2007, the SDLP got more votes than the Ulster Unionists who again got more seats. So that’s what Sinn Féin need, they need to be far enough ahead of the DUP to make sure that they’re the largest party.
Sinn Féin is running 34 candidates across 18 constituencies so there are races to watch everywhere.
McCann says Sinn Fein’s performance in West Belfast will be a good barometer of their chances, while the DUP’s performance in Foyle will be a good indicator of how they’re likely to stack up across the province.
All of that will play out at the ballot boxes from 5 May.
So what?
@David Fitzgerald: Never heard of the chap¡
@Alonzo Margate: rte correspondent who tried his hand at politics but never elected but good old RTE kept his place open. Hence the 13 million deficit..
@Dave Barrett: I’m pretty sure he won a bye election, lasted a yr to 18 mths and then said the dail wasnt for him
@Dave Barrett: Story is the missus was not happy surviving on a TDs salary, so back top the RTE gravy train!
@Dave Barrett: he was elected with some fanfare as an economics expert,. Wasn’t happy to languish on the back bench while Mickey Noonan, (former secondary school teacher) dictated economic policy. In Ireland slapping the right backs and kissing the right holes counts for a lot more than actual knowledge. The poor naive eejit.
@Dave Barrett: wow at 13 million he is easily the highest paid in rte
@Dave Barrett: More like he’d be out of the limelight so he walked out
@Dave Barrett: He was elected, Kenny over the moon with him, but like a new toy Kenny discarded him….no great loss and Kenny still went on to make a bad suitution worse. Lee resumed his employment with R.T.E. he had to be punished so he was packed off to agriculture. Now that he has served his time in the gulag he is now back in the fold. And Kenny rode off into the sunset with his pensions.
@Alonzo Margate: your head must be in the sand
Left the rough and tumble of politics for a handy number in RTE. Couldn’t serve public and be a legislator. Disappointed with him. Ran away.
@Tim Oleary: You could aldo say he was brave enough to admit he made a mistake and decided to try and get his career up and running again. I can never understand the begrudgry of the Irish.
@Tim Oleary: quite right. ..On RTE he was the famous economic expert but then he arrived in the Dail to discover he was just a nobody. Probably got fed up too with the late night phonecalls from the constituents looking to get potholes filled in. Very nice of RTE to keep the job open for him, but that’s RTE for you. they don’t believe in recruiting new talent
@Manbackonboard: clearly not a driven political community person like many politicians down the years. A careerist in an undemaning job. Left his electorate down. Selfish.
@Manbackonboard: No begrudgery at all. Just a reasonable opinion.
He loves Irish water
@Dan: Correct. Now the unfortunate RTE viewer will have to listen to him whinging on about the brilliance of Irish Water and how wonderful it would be if we all paid 1000euros per year for starters. A yes man right to the core.
Good man George ! He’s a better correspondent than politician ! At least he had the bottle to stand in an election, good luck to him fxxk the begrudges
@Martin Sinnott: should have stuck in there. Couldn’t stick it out as a community champion in our parliament.
Wasnt he the chap who ran 4 government some years ago got in and within a year he ran back to rte leaving those who voted 4 him down never trusted that man after that
@Liam Ward: agree totally.
That really means Climate Change correspondent…Don’t be too alarmist…with the reports…
@iComment: Sick of him whinging on about climate change
Has he ever heard of HAARP in Alaska where they manipulate the weather plus the geo engineering that takes place in the skies where planes spray thick white lines of chemicals that knit together which causes the gray blanket of low cloud we experience on most days!
@Mairead Hilliard: you make very good points there, He is a pure disgust with his sad face, you would think that the Sky was about to fall when he starts whinging. All that Climate Change stuff,- a load of codswallop really . Fake news!!.
@Mairead Hilliard: Huh? Why is this always done by “they”? Who are these people who have access to unlikely science, and use it for completely unfathomable motives- motives that always seem to be totally opposed to the lunatic who believes this shįť?
@Mairead Hilliard: The grey Blanket is caused by 2 million air planes causing Contrails (exhaust from planes reacting to certain climatic scenarios). This also means that the average temperature in the NW Europe is lower than it should be and the chance of increased flooding incidents hitting the western European coastlines (Ireland, Norway, NE France etc). The IPCC has not taken this cooling effect into account by the way (same as they ignored increasing Methane emissions).
“…Aircraft contribute to climate change through emissions of carbon dioxide, oxides of nitrogen, water vapour and formation of persistent contrails. Both the aircraft routing and subsequent climate impact are dependent on the large-scale weather pattern. It may therefore be possible to reduce aircraft climate impact by defining climate-optimal aircraft routes; this is being investigated by the European REACT4C project for trans-Atlantic flights…..” (Watch the video link on the Abstract linked for pictures showing satellite imagery explaining the situation) https://ams.confex.com/ams/93Annual/webprogram/Paper215939.html
How can he be expected to ask the difficult questions of government when he was in Fine Gael.The cabal of RTE/FFG employs its own.
“New Role” another Salary for Cash Strapped RTE, increase that Licence Fee quickly!
This is one of the reasons everyone hates RTÉ. Jobs for the boys. Straight back in the door after becoming a failed TD instead of applying for a job like everyone else. Became agriculture correspondent and wouldn’t know a cow from a horse. Here is now probably getting another promotion and jump in salary I’m sure.
@James Fox:
he applied for the environmment job which was open to everyone else including you! If you read the article you would have seen that.
Same RTE fake news.
George Lee is IW spokesman
As well as PROPGANDA for the government
Does a bit of reporting for the state broadcaster on the side…
He lost journalistic credibility with his political adventure.
I think he developed delusions of grandeur during his spell as a recession soothsayer.
Clear any space with his voice
Good man George ! He’s a better correspondent than politician ! At least he had the bottle to stand in an election
@Martin Sinnott: then ran away leaving the voters down. The dail is the most important place in the governance of our country, legislating. No bottle.
@Tim Oleary: 4 comments on this article? You must be a very bitter person. Go outside and get some sun. You’ll feel better.
@Manbackonboard: you deny honest and fair comment.
This is more RTÉ big salary musical chairs.
Surely they might consider hiring an extremely knowledgeable graduate in the area being reported on. We need to make sure our media is composed of educated experts in their fields to ensure they can scrutinise politicians (who also ought to have some relevant background to their briefs). Real journalists are important too but they are old school true investigative ones those who try to uncover any corruption etc.
We certainly don’t need or want just some well styled prompt reading empty vessel “journalist” with no knowledge of the area being discussed just some notes cobbled together by or for them or we could end up like the jokeshop across the sea.
@Supes Kz: he won journalist of the year for a huge investigative journalism piece that uncovered overcharging and tax evasion at National Irish Bank a few years back.
Bloke gets around…
More state funded propaganda
This wannabe Finance Minister thought Bruton was going to hand over his portfolio to him.
Naive!
Painful He’s such a goody two shoes
More state funded propaganda
More state funded propaganda
@Robert Clarke:
need to buy more tinfoil…
Credibility is gone. Nationally perceived as a token employee. Needs to change scene. He crossed the bridge and any post he performs after walking back is simply untenable.
I wish i could be an rte reporter leave my job become a failed politician and then get my job as an rte reporter back again no problem.come on george welcome back.
Heres hoping he actually has some science qualifications/experience though he doesnt seem to have the skills to be a good Science Media Journalist, unfortunately.
Likely, he will be using the go to corporate science news service (Sense About Science aka Science media Centre (SMC) aka Science Media Center) run by an ex blogger from Spiked Magazine ( A pro corporate climate denial blog ) who deleted her blog posts after she got a ton of money for her single parent charity to monitor and distribute “experts” for Science news stories.
From Wiki ; “his specialist area was labour economics and unemployment.”
Oh dear, looks like RTE did not want a real, qualified, independent Science media Journalist (Who are now being trained at Uni to go to the SMC instead of verifying the science independently). :( Here is a rabbit hole that might explain what i am getting at ; https://nuclear-news.net/?s=Science+Media+Centre
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