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WORKING ROBOTICISTS NEED to indulge the public in sci-fi scenarios.
I thought it’d be a cool story to interview academics and robotics professionals about the popular notion of a robot takeover, but four big names in the area declined to talk to me. A fifth person with robo street cred told me on background that people in the community fear that publicly talking about these topics could hurt their credibility, and that they think the topic has already been explained well enough.
This is a problem. A good roboticist should have a finger on the pulse of the public’s popular conception of robotics and be able to speak to it. The public doesn’t care about “degrees of freedom” or “state estimation and optimization for mobile robot navigation,” but give a robot a gun and a mission, and they’re enthralled.
More importantly, as I heard from the few roboticists who spoke to me on the record, there are real risks involved going forward, and the time to have a serious discussion about the development and regulation of robots is now.
Most people agree that the robot revolution will have benefits. People disagree about the risks.
Author and physicist Louis Del Monte told us that the robot uprising ”won’t be the ‘Terminator’ scenario, not a war. In the early part of the post-singularity world — after robots become smarter than humans — one scenario is that the machines will seek to turn humans into cyborgs. This is nearly happening now, replacing faulty limbs with artificial parts. We’ll see the machines as a useful tool.”
But according to Del Monte, the real danger occurs when self-aware machines realize they share the planet with humans. They “might view us the same way we view harmful insects” because humans are a species that “is unstable, creates wars, has weapons to wipe out the world twice over, and makes computer viruses.”
Frank Tobe, editor and publisher of the business-focused Robot Report, subscribes to the views of Google futurist Ray Kurzweil on the singularity, that we’re close to developing machines that can outperform the human mind, perhaps by 2045. He says we shouldn’t take this lightly.
I’ve become concerned that now is the time to set in motion limits, controls, and guidelines for the development and deployment of future robotic-like devices.
“It’s time to decide whether future robots will have superpowers — which themselves will be subject to exponential rates of progress — or be limited to services under man’s control,” Tobe said. “Superman or valet? I choose the latter, but I’m concerned that politicians and governments, particularly their departments of defense and industry lobbyists, will choose the former.”
Kurzweil contends that as various research projects plumb the depths of the human brain with software, humankind itself will be improved by offshoot therapies and implants.
“This seems logical to me,” Tobe said. “Nevertheless, until we choose the valet option, we have to be wary that sociopathic behaviors can be programmed into future bots with unimaginable consequences.”
Ryan Calo, assistant professor of law at the University of Washington with an eye on robot ethics and policy, does not see a machine uprising ever happening:
Based on what I read, and on conversations I have had with a wide variety of roboticists and computer scientists, I do not believe machines will surpass human intelligence — in the sense of achieving ‘strong’ or ‘general’ AI — in the foreseeable future.
“Even if processing power continues to advance, we would need an achievement in software on par with the work of Mozart to reproduce consciousness.”
Calo adds, however, that we should watch for warnings leading up to a potential singularity moment. If we see robots become more multipurpose and contextually aware then they may then be “on their way to strong AI,” says Calo. That will be a tip that they’re advancing to the point of danger for humans.
Calo has also recently said that robotic capability needs to be regulated.
Andra Keay, managing director of Silicon Valley Robotics, also doesn’t foresee a guns a’ blazin’ robot war, but she says there are issues we should confront: ”I don’t believe in a head-on conflict between humans and machines, but I do think that machines may profoundly change the way we live and unless we pay attention to the shifting economical and ethical boundaries, then we will create a worse world for the future,” she said. “It’s up to us.”
In contrast to this, Jorge Heraud, CEO of agricultural robotics company Blue River Technology, offers a fairly middle-of-the-road point of view: “Yes, someday [robots and machines] will [surpass human intelligence]. Early on, robots/machines will be better at some tasks and (much) worse at others. It’ll take a very long while until a single robot/machine will surpass human intelligence in a broad number of tasks. [It will be] much longer until it’s better in all.”
When asked if if the singularity would look like a missing scene from “Terminator” or if it would be more subtle than that, Heraud said, “Much more subtle. Think C-3PO. We don’t have anything to worry for a long while.”
Regardless of the risk, it shouldn’t be controversial that we need to discuss and regulate the future of robotics.
Northwestern Law professor John O. McGinnis makes clear how we can win the robot revolution right now in his paper, “Accelerating AI” [emphasis ours]:
“Even a non-anthropomorphic human intelligence still could pose threats to mankind, but they are probably manageable threats. The greatest problem is that such artificial intelligence may be indifferent to human welfare. Thus, for instance, unless otherwise programmed, it could solve problems in ways that could lead to harm against humans.”
But indifference, rather than innate malevolence, is much more easily cured. Artificial intelligence can be programmed to weigh human values in its decision making. The key will be to assure such programming.
Long before any battle scenes ripped from science fiction actually take place, the real battle will be in the hands of the people building and designing artificially intelligent systems. Many of the same people who declined to be interviewed for this story are the ones who must stand up as heroes to save humanity from blockbuster science fiction terror in the real world.
Forget the missiles and lasers — the only weapons of consequence here will be algorithms and the human minds creating them.
I know quite a bit about robotics and I find it very difficult to see how robots can make the world we live in a more pleasant place for all of us. Long before a robot ever, of its own volition, intentionally harms a human, we humans will be maiming, killing and starving each other because of the disruptive effect of advanced robotics on the labour market and the unjust distribution of wealth.
Millions of low-skilled workers, who are already being ruthlessly exploited as little more than an expendable natural resource by capitalist enterprises, will be further devalued by the availability of robots which can do many of the same jobs without the headache of employing humans. More and more people will find themselves starved of employment opportunities, excluded from the rewards of industry, marginalised from possessing anything that could meaningfully sustain them.
Technology has already made the world a worse place. And I don’t just mean in the sense of first-world problems like receiving work email at 10pm or getting addicted to Facebook, but if those are the only kind of problems you can see for now then I suppose that’s better than nothing.
Absolutely ZZ, eloquent and insightful post. The major robotic-technological threat facing humans today – is the constant loss of jobs – pushing millions of people into abject poverty.
I worry what the world will look like in 10-50 years.
When Dell and banta were in limerick most of the line work involved picking leads/software cds and other add ons from boxes and putting them into the PC/Laptop box,
At the same time (just a years ago) Dells Austin plant was using robotics for these jobs. Foxconn are moving in this direction now, The next 30 years will see work/food riots like we’ve never seen before.
I too am pessimistic about the world’s prospects. Fortunately however, since I’m already drinking so much just to cope with the existential horror of simply being alive, I don’t actually spend a lot of time worrying about the looming roboapocalypse.
Technology has made the world a worse place? That’s a ridiculous statement even by my standard. Technology is humanities one saving grace. Every single species on earth and probably the universe inevitably becomes extinct due to environmental and cosmic catastrophes, and technology is our only chance to survive in the long term.
I would consider myself an agnostic. I believe that if there is a God, it does not interact with the universe whatsoever. It merely started things off, and just like a science excitement, it set parameters which the test [the universe] must abide by, then it sits back and monitors the progress. Maybe Gods gift to life is making it possible for us to discover and develop technology so that one day we could transcend the limits of the universe. It sounds crazy, but just consider how far we have come in an extremely short length of time. We went from testing the first planes in 1903 to the first Mars Robot explorartion in 2003. Think of what we will be able to do in 100 years or 1000 years or 1,000,000 years. It’s impossible for us to comprehend how awesome things could be.
It won’t be an easy road getting there, but that’s nature. It is as cruel as it possibly could be. However, the data from various sources show that the world is getting to be a less violent place, even though it doesn’t seem that way at the minute.
Put the alcohol down now ZZ!
Reagan, initially I relished the prospect of rebutting each erroneous facet of your comment, but with each passing line of misguided blather, I regret to say that I became more and more overwhelmed by the sheer scale of the task, so I instead embarked on a long difficult quest to identify a single sentence that is not fundamentally invalid. I am pleased to say that I have found a viable candidate:
“I would consider myself an agnostic.”
If indeed you regard yourself as an agnostic then this sentence, unlike the others in whose company it resides, is logically kosher.
ZZ you’re the kind of person who in the 1500′s would have given out about the printing press because all the scribes would lose their jobs.. Holding back human advancement so as to hold onto full employment is beyond stupid..
‘If every worker were staffed in the army and fleet, we’d have full employment and nothing to eat’ – FA Hayek
ZZ, look up the Venus project. It’s a bit out there, and kinda just futuristic communism, but some of the ideas are good, and it sounds like it would suit you based on the concerns you’ve outlined.
I’ll be honest here and admit I haven’t a clue what’s going on
Can’t see how you got 27 likes for that post…Life is tough, get out of the pub and stop feeling sorry for yourself.
Thanks Silent Majority, I had not previously heard of the Venus Project. However, To be honest, I wouldn’t touch that kind of idealistic clap trap with a barge pole. Even if there was any possible way that what that guy Fresco is proposing could actually work (which there isn’t), it would be impossible to get to there from where we are now.
My fundamental problem is with the division of labour that human civilization has embraced with such fervour. I yearn for a time before the agricultural revolution, but there’s no way to get there from here either.
In short, we are doomed.
Killjoy, I have no idea why you think that Hayek quote is relevant. Any yes, if I had been around in the 16th century, I might well have decried the relentless march of Gutenberg’s printing press. However, my howls of protest would have been as futile then as they are now because it was already much too late. By the time Gutenberg rolled out the red carpet for the age of modernity, its filthy black carriage was already half way up the driveway and our inexorable spiral into the purgatorial horror that awaits us was inescapable.
Still lost!
Just merge with the technology. Problem solved!
Robot rebellion my arse..the second one of them lays a hand on human. The lawyers and Health and Safety will have the manufacturers / inventor living in a mudhut with no shirt on their backs. Humanity will be safe as long as there is libel laws.. Computer system crashes reaping havoc on civilisation now thats a different matter.
The millions of numb nuts browsing the phone every second of the day are all ready dumbed down machines.
I told ye I’d be back.
“Get aut !”
Get what?
Authorisation
Autumn
Autism.
Automatic
Sorry, get it now.
Phase plasma rifle in a 40watt range.
Hay, just what you see pal.
Da Uzi 9mm
Put the joint down Brian!
Brian ; when Arnie goes up to the guy to take his car he says “Get aut!” …. phonetic spelling that’s all !
Just for you Chief, here’s a summary:
1. I proposed that advanced robots pose a challenge for human civilization because they will destroy jobs and consolidate societal inequlaity.
2. I also stated that technology has already made the world a worse place.
3. Maurice and SeekingUniverslTruth voiced similar concerns for the future.
4. I overshared my drinking problem.
5. Reagan Smash waxed lyrical about the technological advances of the 20th century and rubbished my suggestion that technology has made the world a worse place.
6. Reagan also speculated that the universe is a science experiment by a god who (judging by Reagan’s use of the pronoun “it”) is of indeterminate gender. Despite the many glaring flaws in Reagan’s comment, it has thus far received over four times as many green thumbs as red thumbs, prompting me to tearfully open another bottle of wine.
7. You conducted an impassioned but futile substance abuse intervention.
8. Killjoy triumphantly revealed the glaringly obvious fact that I’m against technology.
9. Silent Majority suggested I might be interested in the completely hare-brained Venus Project.
10. I politely thanked Silent Majority, but since I would rather emigrate to North Korea than set foot in an idealist utopia (aka fascist cult), I wisely declined his invitation.
11. I then reiterated my cherished belief that we are all doomed.
12. You then reiterated your confusion.
How on earth did this end up down here?! Sorry, this reply was intended for a different comment.
Zozzy … they start with gremlins and then ……..
…then they get you too drunk to use the internet. Maybe these god damn robots aren’t so bad after all!
Bet I could sell you a wine bottle opening robot ….
Every shroud has a lot of wining !
Ridiculous article!
“Resistance is futile”. The collective will attain perfection
Even if you do secure such programming what’s to stop a robot with a human mind turning into nixon out of futurama?
Well in the west of Ireland t’would be the rust that would get them !
If its anything like bender the drink will prevent the rust ;)
I like your tactics Kevin ; build a sense of security with the drink and then Rust them from the inside out !
Genius !
1 in 3 military aircraft in the US are now unmanned drones…scary stuff. Any machine can be hacked.
“I am a machine!”
I would mind a cyborg body . Be nice not having to constantly pee.
Have you ever tried to wipe up oil Catherine ? …very messy !
We’re nearing the singularity, the tipping point for computers becoming self aware. our world is going to change beyond all recognition in 40 years. With robots taking care of the unskilled work and computers simulating and developing new ways of producing food and shelter our species will have time for other pursuits e.g. there’s a big universe out there to explore and gather resources in, wars could become less likely as the need for resources diminishes as we develop renewable energies and have free labour . The terra forming of mars for instance and it’s colonization will keep a large section Of our planet employed, the need for wealth and accusation of wealth will also diminish as humanity will move more towards the acquisition of knowledge, with the dawn of ai religious belief will also diminish. The singularity is close what lies beyond will be a rocky road for starters but when in humanity’s history has it been really easy. these days are probably the easiest a large population of the planet has ever had throughout history .thanks in large to technology .
We are living in a golden age. The Age of Enlightenment is here.
When I hear the term “golden age” I think of times after which things got worse, but I suspect you mean it in a more optimistic way?
When you describe this as the “Age of Enlightenment”, do you mean because science has found answers to a lot of things that were previously mysteries or merely the subject of speculation?
I think he’s referring to the awakening of previously millions of people who were led a merry dance of Catholic and other religion’s Dogma to a freer more open and caring society ….
It’s happening Zozz ..it’s in the Flux as Gerard Manley Hopkins might say !
Eh, I don’t know much about poetry, but I’m pretty sure Gerard Manly Hopkins was extremely religious. I mean, he was a jesuit priest after all – not that guarantees religious belief, I suppose.
Anyway, I’m all for ridding ourselves of despotic religious dictators, but…
a.) Religious oppression is going nowhere in the foreseeable future.
b.) If you think that in a world free of religous oppression we would all be dancing happily hand in hand and celebrating the many quiet joys of brotherhood, I do not share your view. Most of the bad things done in religion’s name are actually just bad things that would be done anyway in the name of something else if religion wasn’t there.
don’t necessarily disagree Zozz ; Hopkins was also into nature if I remember correctly ; open to correction …
The one thing we have to remember though is that those of us who are alive now and particularly our children are being subjected to volumes of information and such a wide range of information that new possibilities are opening …
Would we even know about Gaza for example and if we heard about it imagine the filtered information we would only be getting from broadsheets if this was 100 years ago.
I asked my father if he remembered where he was when W.W.2 broke out and he told me he remembered it very clearly …His father and all the other men in the community were washing sheep at the river and a neighbour came and told them war had broken out , he then proceeded to read out the newspaper – cos most of the men at the river were probably illiterate …. That has changed – look at the scandal that Lord Britton managed to cover up ; the internet is not going to let that die down , and even if it doesn’t succeed the fact that it could resurface shows that the old “power’s grip on the “thinkings ” of man is slipping !
I get along with most people I know so that gives me hope I suppose …..
Interesting points Dermot. Your father’s story about the outbreak of WW2 is fascinating.
Access to information knowledge over the web today is the equivalent to the first printing of the Gutenberg bible. This access is undermining governments, universities and any organisation that controls power over people. The un-educated masses have more access to knowledge than all the people who have ever lived before now. But more importantly this information gives people power to question everything at all levels. To understand something truly is to be liberated from it. But be warned the keepers of knowledge will not relinquish control easily. Any organisation that feels its been threatened will attempt to defend itself through regulation. Governments universities corporations will attempt to regulate this access. It would be very interesting to see how this is going to be done!!
Jim ; totally agree ;couldn’t have put it better.
Zozz ; I think people don’t talk to their parents enough ; they are an absolute mine of seminal thoughts….I am thinking that technology is advancing at such a pace that each successive generation writes off the previous one as being “stupid” …only word I could think off !
I asked my mother what it was like rearing kids and she sais they grow up of a shot …. by the time my third child came along ; having sacrificed the first two to double income parenting crèche minding I determined to watch my third grow up ; I have learnt more from this experience about myself and the world than I could ever learn in a book and if I had “done the right thing” a stranger would know more about my kid and I would just be their taxi !
Best decision I have ever made and to hell with the money !
I don’t see much evidence of people questioning everything at all levels. If anything, for most people, the internet is little more than an amazingly comprehensive source of misinformation.
I don’t know whether you ever studied at university Jim, but prior to the widespread availability internet, almost everything that was taught at undergraduate level was completely available in any number of textbooks to anyone (in a developed country) that wanted to learn about it. The notion that universities were somehow denying people (other than their students) access to that information is farcical.
What scares universities about the internet is that people may be able to have their learning _accredited_ elsewhere. The fact that people can access course material online is basically not all that different to how it was before – if anyone had the energy to teach themselves they could already do that.
There is much wisdom in what you say Dermot.
Don’t know about wisdom Zozz but that’s the way it has worked out so far for me ..life’s a journey all journey have turns some good some bad ..it’s how you roll with the punches I suppose .
Your move creep!
That scenario is BS……I hope.
Anyone who says technology has made our lives worse, is on crack. Stop and think about it…advanced medicine, abundant food and shelter etc etc etc. Even 100 years ago our lives were miserable and destined to be shortened by some disease that is now fully curable.
People have a nostalgic view of the past that isn’t entirely accurate. Hello, black plague anyone? Spanish Influenza? We are about to enter an age of “stuff” being available to everyone so let’s not mess it up before it happens.
Technology is your friend!
No.
Is this the Sunday edition of the Daily Mash?
No -don’t think so – it might be the weekly edition of Sunday Mash though …
Does a bear make stool in the woods?
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