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AS THE LONGEST-SERVING British home secretary for over a century, Theresa May is well versed with security issues, including the Irish peace process.
Over the past six years, May has weathered riots, sat in on a decision to go to war and, like Cameron, (quietly) campaigned to Remain in the EU.
She now insists that Brexit ‘means Brexit’.
Described as a “bloody difficult woman” by Tory grandee Ken Clarke, May has promised that the next man to find out how “bloody difficult” she could be will be Jean-Claude Juncker.
As president of the EU Commission, Juncker will be tasked with negotiating the terms of trade and immigration with the new prime minister, often described as Britain’s Merkel.
Just how bloody difficult these negotiations prove will have a huge bearing on Irish people’s freedom of movement, the peace process, and trade in general.
Common Travel Area
Prior to Britain’s momentous decision to leave the EU, May predicted border controls across the island of Ireland if the referendum carried.
She said it was “inconceivable” that the invisible border would not be affected.
While she acknowledged that the British-Irish Common Travel Area pre-dated the EU, she insisted that Brexit would lead to tariffs and some form of controls between the Republic and the North.
Immigration has been identified as one of the main drivers of the Leave vote, particularly among working-class strongholds in the north of England.
The big question for Irish people is whether she will end the right for EU citizens – including Irish citizens – to work in the UK.
On Sunday 3 July, May stressed the importance of ‘controlling’ free movement of people:
It’s important we get the right deal about controlling free movement, but it’s also about ensuring that we get the best deal possible on the trade of goods and services.
That could mean the end of the soft border between the 26 and six counties, and a return of checkpoints between, say Derry and Letterkenny, and Newry and Dundalk.
Yet so far European leaders have baulked at allowing the UK to cherry-pick three of the EU’s four freedoms (also comprising free movement of goods, capital and of services respectively).
Although tougher on immigration than former Tory rival Boris Johnson (who played down the issue), May’s time at the Home Office has still seen annual net immigration to the UK rise to 330,000 (184,000 of whom came from other EU countries like Ireland).
Moreover, with Britain’s economy seriously affected by Brexit, she could end up softening her stance on immigration in return for EU free trade concessions.
Trade
Although the value of Irish exports to Britain now lags behind those to Belgium, overall trade with the UK (including the North) remains second only to Ireland’s trade links with the United States.
It’s possible that, in return for May’s wish to limit immigration, the EU will impose tariffs on the UK’s trade with the remaining member states.
In any case, Britain is preparing for a fresh recession due to the economic uncertainty triggered by Brexit, which is bound to hit Ireland hard.
The peace process
May had previously said that the UK should withdraw from the European Convention of Human Rights, which underpins much of the Good Friday Agreement.
Yet she backed away from that position when asked directly at the launch of her Tory leadership bid last week.
Sinn Fein has expressed grave concern over May’s appointment, and the repercussions for the peace process.
Leader Gerry Adams said Cameron had been “remiss in fulfilling his obligations under the Good Friday Agreement, under the Stormont House Agreement, and under the Fresh Start agreement”.
He said May’s appointment will present difficulties for the peace process and Anglo-Irish relations.
“Unfortunately, that focus has not been there as much as it needs to be.
So, the upcoming period is going to be particularly difficult and particularly challenging.
Adams also reiterated his call for a border poll, and warned that any attempt to tamper with the ECHR would be “bad”.
This week Northern Ireland secretary Theresa Villiers paid tribute to May’s engagement with the Stormont executive.
Theresa May has a positive history of working with the Northern Ireland administration across a range of Justice issues, including the NCA [National Crime Agency] becoming fully operational in Northern Ireland.
Yet the peace process has been partly assisted by EU and Westminster funding, while the soft border with the Republic has made living in the UK more palatable for many Northern nationalists.
Berlin meets
As much as Ireland has a unique relationship with the UK, the government is also trying to ensure its ‘special friendship’ with the continental powers remains.
In a one-on-one meeting with Angela Merkel in Berlin this afternoon, Enda Kenny set forward his reasons for why Ireland will be adversely affected by Brexit – and thus should get some special treatment.
The German Chancellor didn’t bite, telling the Taoiseach that Ireland’s voice will be one of many heard when Article 50 is invoked.
There are positives for Ireland, though.
Unlike Michael Gove, at least May hasn’t compared the Good Friday agreement to appeasement.
And unlike rivals like Andrea Leadsom, May plans on triggering Article 50 some time in 2017, in order to prepare Britain’s negotiating position.
Whether Ireland can use that time usefully depends as much on the political situation in Dublin as it does in London.
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She’ll eat Enda without salt.
Ah now, you always have to season your chicken…
We can only hope you mean that literally.
Hopefully
another strong women to pat his little ginger head and smile politely as he waffle on & on & on & on & on. Then in a motherly voice remind him that is he nothing more than yesterdays man, supporting a abusive church and a party that sees the poor and unwell as commodities. He can’t even run a country the size of Liverpool efficiently and has allowed cronyism and corruption to linger unchecked. many have profited from his austerity but he also has blood on this hands and a suicide rate that is unforgivable. she will see through his spin in seconds before he even opens his mouth and embarrasses the whole country again.
That won’t stop him from opening his mouth and embarrassing the whole country again though..
What do you mean “Again”? He never bloody stopped
We need to get rid of Kenny right away. He’s too much of an idiot to leave in power for these turbulent times.
He’s too much of an idiot to have in power at anytime, let alone turbulent times
What will it mean for Ireland? Should we not be asking Frau Merkel that……
With a newly acquired €200+ billion National Debt – we should, yes. It’ll take a couple of generations, at least, to shift the huge burden – and allow progress.
I tip my hat sir and yet 18 red thumbs!
It’ll take a leader with a couple of balls.
May is a conservative English nationalist who would undermine the GFA in a heartbeat if it meant furthering her own agenda in Britain.
And she will. Everything has changed, changed utterly.
Enda negotiating with another woman,good luck.
Please, NO, NO, NO, not another Maggie Thatcher!!!!
Please say who has described her as ” Britain’s Merkel” How can you make a statement like that without giving evidence for it? Again the Journal.ie engages in lazy journalism
I think she’s a bit of a privileged old school dimwit who is aloof and out of touch with Brexit man. Thatcher by comparison was just a bitch. So not comparable.
They will surely have a general election sooner than later and realistically unlikely she will survive.
Dimwit? Hardly, she went to Oxford. If you think that’s easy then try and get in.
Aloof? Perhaps, but she was a vicar’s daughter not a hedge fund baby so not sure that’s fair.
Out of touch with Brexit man? Well, she was always Eurosceptic and if out of touch means out of touch with the UKIP crowd then I would hope so – last thing that’s needed is some rabble-rouser.
Election soon? No way. MPs are sitting pretty until 2020 and individuals can’t guarantee being returned in the current post-Brexit climate.
Yes. Election soon.
Within a year.
The Brits have a big hang up with unelected Prime Ministers.
Remember Gordon Brown.
Fair enough. Agree to differ and time will tell.
She got a 2nd class BA in geography at Oxford.
Make your own mind up.
But we are not judging her as a geologist.
Geography. Not geology.
Tatcher2
There won’t be much change, except they’re out. And we’ll still in…
What is the big deal over the border .. Many countries work fine with eu and non eu borders seperating them .. Get over it .. If the Nationalists In the north and SF etc have a problem with it push for a border poll and vote for a united Ireland and a process of reunification can be worked out one way or another .. If Northern Ireland votes to stay in UK let that be the end of it and everyone move on ..
As for the Common travel area, who cares, it’s only an extra few minutes when arriving in UK airports from Ireland..
Which countries specifically are you referring to that work fine with borders outside of the EU? In practice, this situation does not exist anywhere in Western Europe, as the few existing non EU countries in this region are part of the Schengen free travel area – but neither Ireland nor the UK are, and the UK never will be.
And if you don’t understand why a hard border will be a bad thing, I can only assume you never had to cross the border in the 70s or 80s, and you never saw the resulting economic devastation in the towns on either side of it.
Hopefully they won’t bring back the B Specials.
England/UK is a ticking time bomb. Sit back & watch the implosion.
Once the nasty party always the nasty party.
Jerez. Celtic are 1 down to Lincoln Red Imps from Gibraltar.
Gotta go
You being called up from the subs bench or something ?
Not expectig much. I hope she’s nothing like Maggie. She had a heart made of granite and she didn’t like the Irish people at all. She was arrogant and cold hearted!!! Let’s wait and see!!!
Behind every successful woman is a great man.
Maggie Thatcher was nothing without Dennis.
Hilary is doing well through her marriage to Bill.
Philip John is the man in this instance.
Congrats Philip.
Imagine giving Maggie one. Shudder.
The Iron Lady is probably a bit rusty at this stage..
Odhran McMurchada would know. He stands behind many successful women while hiding behind trees and lampposts.
Katherine Zappone might not agree with you.
@Diana.
‘Odhran McMurchada would know. He stands behind many successful women while hiding behind trees and lampposts.’
WOW Diana.
There quite a sinister implication in your statement there.
Do you wish to stand over it?
It means that May in Ireland will be cool, despite meeting the hot air from the west…..
*In Mr Bean’s voice* BRAAACE YERSELVES
Bugging our telephones and keeping a list of our internet use?
The worst that could of happened was let women into the pub
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